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Florida Primary Results: First Live Thread

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 05:57:26 PM EST
Tags: Florida 08 (all tags)
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(larger version here.)

Update 8:00 pm : CNN calls Florida for Hillary Clinton, based on exit polls and 15% of vote in. CNN says more people voted in Florida than all the other states combined.

CNN says the Obama campaign's response is Florida is a tie: 0 delegates for Hillary, 0 for Obama. I guess that means he won't call to congratulate here.

Update 7:45 pm: Hillary still way ahead in the counties reporting so far. Obama ahead in one county, Leon -- located at the top of the state. Demograpics for Leon County here.

[More...]

6:55 pm ET:Most Florida polls close in five minutes. Some close in an hour. Exit polls show a large number of older voters.

Both parties' electorates were older than in any other presidential contest this year. A third or more in each primary were at least 65 years old. In earlier Democratic contests no more than a quarter were senior citizens, and on the Republican side only the Nevada caucuses came anywhere close to Florida in the proportion of older voters.

Democratic election results here from Florida Department of State. County Democratic results are here. You can view both parties results here.

Early results show big lead for Hillary. There may be no delegates at stake for now, but a big win should provide her with some momentum.

Updates moving to top of thread, 7:45 pm ET.

< Is The Florida Dem Race Getting Traction? | Coverage Of The Dem Results In Florida >

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    Florida Primary Results: First Live Thread | 157 comments (157 topical)
    More Republican Tricks In Florida (5.00 / 0) (#27)
    by MO Blue on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:45:37 PM EST
    Sheneka McDonald spent 10 minutes trying to convince poll workers ... that she should have a Democratic ballot. She questioned poll workers when she was handed a Republican ballot but was told, "this is the only ballot we have."
    "I said, 'How can this be the only ballot,'"     McDonald recalled. "That's when the guy chimed in from the back and said the Democratic primary was in March."
    The poll captain eventually apologized to McDonald and told her they had forgotten to unpack all the ballots. "It was a little unnerving this morning," she said. "I don't see how you forget to unpack ballots. This is what gives Florida its reputation."
    TPM

    Another story about false information on provisional ballots.

    Regardless of who our nominee is, the Dems need to be more proactive in stopping these Republican dirty tricks.

    Take two (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:04:17 PM EST
    Russert knows so little of California politics. He thinks that the Ted vote will help with the Latino vote in California, meanwhile, the mayor of LA, Villaraigosa, Huerta (farmworkers union) Sanchez (Congresswoman) went for Hillary. Also, the Asian community is not mentioned at all and most of the powerhouses are going to Hillary.

    I've been sort of amazed (5.00 / 1) (#44)
    by spit on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:19:46 PM EST
    at how little Asians get mentioned in politics in general. They're a decent sized chunk of California, particularly in some of the districts in the bay area and the central valley. They're 12% of the state, a larger demographic group than Blacks here.

    source.

    There's a lot of diversity under "Asian", but that's true of "Latino", too.

    Parent

    Asians (none / 0) (#47)
    by Kathy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:23:58 PM EST
    Obama wouldn't make a pledge to support Asian judges, but Hillary did.  She's got a lot of Asian support out west because of this.

    Parent
    Also because Gary Locke (none / 0) (#137)
    by oldpro on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:20:07 PM EST
    2-term Dem. Chinese-American Governor of Washington State endorsed Hil long ago and also has a new organization with another minority person (forget who just now - senior moment) to support minority candidates, etc.  He has a lot of contacts, fundraising entire west coast.

    Parent
    On the coverage (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:20:42 PM EST
    NBC is doing their usual schtick. Keith Olbermann is presiding over a PunditCast, not a newscast.

    CNN handled it properly.

    Thanks for the reminder; I just (5.00 / 1) (#51)
    by Cream City on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:27:27 PM EST
    flipflopped channels.

    Parent
    even Fox (none / 0) (#48)
    by athyrio on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:26:29 PM EST
    is showing the results of the democrats...Wow MSNBC is really just a state run channel....

    Parent
    but but..can (none / 0) (#53)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:28:33 PM EST
    we take Rachel Maddow with us?

    Parent
    BTD, thanks for the info, Markos is on (none / 0) (#55)
    by Teresa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:28:45 PM EST
    Larry King tonight. In the past, he has said that he thinks it's a big mistake to disregard the voters in Michigan and Florida. I don't remember what his solution is but I do know he praised HC for staying on the ballot in Michigan to let the voters know that their vote matters to her.

    Parent
    It will be interesting to see what he says (5.00 / 1) (#67)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:36:55 PM EST


    Parent
    Will Markos's opinion undergo a transformation (5.00 / 1) (#161)
    by BluestBlue on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:55:06 PM EST
    Now that Hillary has won in a blowout? He'll either have to eat a healthy helping of Humble Pie or his tune will change.

    Sorry, I've been very disappointed by his lack of leadership on Kos. His posts about Hillary have been snarky and he seems to encourage bad behavior and an intolerant community

    Parent

    CNN (none / 0) (#116)
    by BDB on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:00:56 PM EST
    Was much better tonight.  They reported the vote and noted that as of now there will be no delegates.  And they did me the personal favor of having Bill Bennett refuse to comment on Clinton's win.

    It's amazing how much better CNN is when I don't have to listen to Bernstein and Bennett.  

    Parent

    MSNBC isn't even showing Democratic Primary number (5.00 / 0) (#46)
    by BluestBlue on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:23:22 PM EST
    MSNBC also hasn't "officially" called it for Hillary.

    Tell me again why they have a broadcast license? How does this serve the citizens to let them use our airways if they can't inform us on the results of the primary in Florida?

    They certainly showed the results from Michigan! And they called SC for Obama as soon as the polls closed. Then gleefully began talking about the "rout"

    They don't have a broadcast license (none / 0) (#124)
    by Ben Masel on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:06:48 PM EST
    They're a cable network, so the only license they need is the 1st Amendment.

    How come you have a commenter's license?

    Parent

    CNN calls it for Clinton, way ahead (5.00 / 1) (#61)
    by Cream City on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:35:11 PM EST
    49% for her to 30% for Obama, with 37% in . . . and one commentator says Florida not a big deal, while another says it is important momentum, etc. . . .

    Funny Story About Florida Primary (5.00 / 2) (#68)
    by MO Blue on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:37:03 PM EST
    TPM puts up a post titled "Hillary Ally Drops Mailer In Florida -- Despite Candidates' Pledge Against Campaigning" AFSCME, a union supporting Hillary sent out mailers urging voters in Florida to vote for her. The comment section went wild about how horrible Clinton was and how she couldn't play by the rules.

    Shorty thereafter, TPM puts up another post titled "Obama Ally Drops Lit In Florida Urging Vote -- Despite Candidates' No-Campaign Pledge" UNITE, a union supporting Obama  sent out mailers urging voters in Florida urging a vote for him. In the comments in that thread, Obama supporters went out of their way to point out that this was not done by the Obama campaign. Once again, it points out the double standards that apply.

    Since this was primary related I thought it would be OK for this thread, but,  Jeralyn, if you think this is O/T go ahead and delete.

    That is so typical. God help me from ever (none / 0) (#85)
    by Teresa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:45:41 PM EST
    being that blinded. Though I openly admit to being that biased against Republicans.

    Parent
    According to Chris Matthews (5.00 / 1) (#69)
    by andgarden on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:37:32 PM EST
    half a million votes are a "confection."

    No more MSNBC for me. And since CNN is going with Bennett, no nothing.

    maybe someone needs to remind (none / 0) (#73)
    by hellothere on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:40:03 PM EST
    tweety that this protends super tuesday.

    Parent
    MSNBC (5.00 / 0) (#89)
    by talkingpoint on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:46:06 PM EST
       reporters seems to be in pain each time they mention Hillary name and is trying to find anything  they could to downplay her victory. We should all get together and email them to find out why they are not showing the democratic results.

    Here is a line for you (5.00 / 6) (#95)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:48:22 PM EST
    and what I wilol write in a post.

    More people voted for Hillary Clinton in Florida than watch MSNBC by 400,000.

    oh wow how incredibly stupid of MSNBC (none / 0) (#101)
    by athyrio on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:49:30 PM EST


    Parent
    Memorable Huck quote (5.00 / 0) (#112)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:57:22 PM EST
    They asked him about the Clintons and Arkansas. He said, "we have a saying in Arkansas, if you can't stand the sight of your on blood, don't get into politics"

    polls (5.00 / 1) (#113)
    by Kathy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:58:35 PM EST
    Looks like he got an eight to ten point jump in the polls after IA.

    I suppose that according to Obometry, given a few more weeks, he would have jumped thirty to forty percent.

    No one (4.00 / 0) (#119)
    by Jgarza on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:03:34 PM EST
    campaigned there, no ground game, not much of a  vote.  I wish it had been an actual election because Hillary would have had an opportunity to show that she could turn her support from older democrats into a big win in Florida.  It would have been interesting to see because it would have significance for a general.

    The problem with this vote is that she holds the same margin she has anywhere before her and Obama Campaign there.

    I think she has shown that. Look how many (none / 0) (#132)
    by Teresa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:15:27 PM EST
    she brought out today in a race that "doesn't count". Also, Obama is tightening up in many states where he hasn't campaigned. He still would have lost Florida. Crap Jgarza, he's on the news 24/7. They do know who he is in Florida.

    We have now entered the part of the race where you can't go to every town and get people fired up. They vote on specifics now.

    Parent

    yeah.... (none / 0) (#134)
    by andreww on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:17:50 PM EST
    all that campaigning their doing from state to state now - doesn't matter, just for show because they like airplanes.  Gimme a break.

    Parent
    They all faced the same handicap. (5.00 / 1) (#143)
    by Teresa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:23:22 PM EST
    No one campaigned there (unless you count Obama's ads) but people in Florida watch the same news the rest of us do. No candidate is going to come to the town I live in (except maybe Huckabee) but I am still informed and involved.

    Parent
    except (none / 0) (#146)
    by andreww on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:29:24 PM EST
    hillary starts out ahead - she just does.  To not allow campaigning is more of a handicap to the entire field other then Hillary.

    Again, I point to the low turn-out when held up against the GOP turnout.

    Parent

    turn out (5.00 / 0) (#151)
    by Kathy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:36:18 PM EST
    is always higher for repubs in FL because there are simply more of them, so that part of your argument is moot.

    As for Hillary starting out ahead, have you stopped to think that there is a reason why the Clinton name carries such favorable weight in the nation?  Most folks have not heard of Obama because he has not spent enough time in the national spotlight to truly make a name for himself.  To risk censure, he Obama so unknown that he has to rely on names like Kennedy to put him in the spotlight.  The Clintons earned their place, and people are voting for Hillary because they know what they are going to get.  Obama, to the average voter, is a mystery.  You do not trust your pocketbook to a mystery candidate.  You trust it to the candidate you know can make things happen.

    FL is a microcosm of the rest of the nation, for better or worse.  That is why the vote in the general election has consistently come up close.


    Parent

    And again, reports are that women's turnout was (none / 0) (#150)
    by Cream City on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:35:58 PM EST
    in record percentages -- and women typically vote much more than men do.  So Clinton really brought 'em out again.

    The question remains:  Why can't Obama bring out men in record percentages?

    Parent

    are you going (none / 0) (#1)
    by athyrio on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:05:23 PM EST
    to live blog it....by the way, the other night when you were live blogging....every time you put up a poll to take, my computer froze up....just dont know why....

    I'm going to live blog in this thread rather than (none / 0) (#4)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:08:12 PM EST
    use the live blog software because I will be doing periodic updates rather than constant commenting like I do when there is a debate.

    Parent
    ok and thanks for (none / 0) (#8)
    by athyrio on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:12:59 PM EST
    being there....you are my oasis in a sea of Obama's .....I will be sending something come payday....:-)

    Parent
    Thank you for this, Jeralyn (none / 0) (#2)
    by Judith on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:06:51 PM EST
    I apppreciate it.

    Jeralyn, I thought it was 8 eastern? (none / 0) (#3)
    by Teresa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:06:54 PM EST
    The panhandle is on central time so it would be 7:00 central, 8:00 eastern?

    most close now, some in an hour (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:09:26 PM EST
    Most of the mainstream media coverage is starting in an hour but I wanted to start when the first polls close.

    Parent
    That's interesting and I didn't know that. (none / 0) (#6)
    by Teresa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:11:48 PM EST
    In Tennessee we have two time zones also but the polls all close at the same time. Thanks.

    Parent
    Teresa (none / 0) (#26)
    by Judith on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:43:13 PM EST
    I didnt know that - at the same time you have 2 zones?  

    I know Az has tow zones but that is at different times of the year.  Very confusing.

    Parent

    Yeah, all year long. The Eastern third (none / 0) (#34)
    by Teresa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:01:36 PM EST
    (where I am) is eastern and the remaining two thirds are central. I wish they would change us to all central. It gets dark around 9:30 in the summer since I'm so close to the cut off line.

    I like all our polls closing at the same time though.

    It's 8 now, time for them to call the Dem race.

    Parent

    wow - interesting (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by Judith on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:09:36 PM EST
    boy, I am ignorant.  Thanks for enlightening me -
    cheers

    Parent
    does anyone (none / 0) (#9)
    by athyrio on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:13:45 PM EST
    know who is moderating the debate on thursday??

    Wolf on CNN. Anderson Cooper is doing (none / 0) (#11)
    by Teresa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:24:26 PM EST
    the Republicans on Wed.

    Parent
    geepers (none / 0) (#20)
    by Judith on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:39:02 PM EST
    I didnt even know there was one.  where is it?

    Parent
    California (none / 0) (#29)
    by spit on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:50:54 PM EST
    LA, I think.

    Parent
    thanks Spit! (none / 0) (#30)
    by Judith on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:55:12 PM EST


    Parent
    Kodak Theatre (none / 0) (#118)
    by BDB on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:03:12 PM EST
    in Hollywood.  Because the Dems have all the stars.

    Parent
    I'm watching the Rs tonight (none / 0) (#12)
    by andgarden on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:25:53 PM EST
    FL DOS has results for that coming in here.

    Mittens ahead now, but not much is counted.

    Fuller result thread is (none / 0) (#14)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:31:36 PM EST
    here.

    Parent
    Cool (none / 0) (#16)
    by andgarden on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:35:51 PM EST
    being mostly unfamiliar with Florida geography, few of those places have much meaning to me.

    Parent
    Florida (none / 0) (#18)
    by Kathy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:37:45 PM EST
    Think of it as a giant fishing neck.  The net part hangs down to the Keys, the panhandle is the handle that fingers under Alabama, Mississippi and into Louisiana.  The Gulf is below.

    (also called the Redneck Riviera, fyi)

    Parent

    Thanks (none / 0) (#19)
    by andgarden on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:38:42 PM EST
    That much I know, but the city and county names don't match so well for me. I'll just watch in the aggregate for now.

    Parent
    duh (5.00 / 2) (#31)
    by Kathy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:55:21 PM EST
    Of course you were, andgarden.  I'm just used to folks not knowing anything below the Mason Dixon.  Sorry!

    Quick run-down based on years of torture, er, family vacations to Florida, that picks out the big cities and the counties they're in:

    Pinellas is Tampa/St Pete.  Broward is Ft Lauderdale.  Dade/Miami Dade.  Escambia is Pensacola.  Gulf is Port St. Joe.  Hillsborough is Tampa.  Indian River is Vero Beach.  Marion is Ocala. Monroe is most of the Keys.  Okaloosa is Destin/Ft Walton. Orlando is Orange County.  Palm Beach is Boca.  Osceola is Disney/Kissimmee.  St Johns is St Augustine.  Sarasota/Sarasota.  Volusia is Daytona Beach, Orange City.  Walton is DeFuniak, Freeport.  Seminole is Oviedo, Lake Mary.

    Parent

    There is more than one Boca in Florida (none / 0) (#111)
    by Molly Bloom on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:56:22 PM EST
    you are referring to Mouth of the Rat (Boca Raton) in South Palm Beach County (about 20 miles from Ft. Lauderdale).

    Parent
    Keep this big map (none / 0) (#25)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:41:22 PM EST
    open in another window.

    Big county map

    Parent

    No name calling (none / 0) (#13)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:30:15 PM EST
    A few comments have been deleted for name-calling. Please respect the site's policies.

    Prediction (none / 0) (#15)
    by Steve M on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:33:00 PM EST
    Surprise winner: Pat Buchanan!

    He wow'ed 'em in Palm Beach (none / 0) (#49)
    by RalphB on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:26:38 PM EST


    Parent
    ABC (none / 0) (#17)
    by Kathy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:36:07 PM EST
    Profiled the SOTU "snub" pretty even handedly tonight, for what it's worth.  Gave both sides and let the viewer decide.  Gosh, what's it called when news people do that?  Oh, yeah...journalism.

    Florida: good news for Hillary that the old folks are turning out (though, that's kind of like saying white people turned out in IA and NH. Duh).  Seemed like all the stations gave Florida a pass as far as it meaning anything.  Hopefully when actual numbers come out, they will change their minds.  How can you ignore hundreds of thousands of voters? (she asks stupidly)

    Good news for Mitt that folks put the economy as the biggest concern, too. Anna Quindlen's back piece in Newsweek really states the case for McCain being too old.  Very hard to read, mostly because it made sense.  She even dared to mention Reagan's early signs of Alzheimer's that the press corp noticed but did not report on.

    no snub stuff here (none / 0) (#21)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:39:36 PM EST
    this thread is for the primary. Please discuss the snub on that thread.

    Parent
    oh wow (none / 0) (#24)
    by athyrio on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:40:41 PM EST
    first time I have heard that about Alzheimers...

    Parent
    Apparently (none / 0) (#22)
    by andgarden on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:40:25 PM EST
    CNN has newer numbers

    Florida Returns (none / 0) (#23)
    by xjt on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:40:40 PM EST
    You can follow the returns at the Florida State Division of Elections Website.

    C-Span has full coverage of Clinton Rally (none / 0) (#76)
    by felizarte on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:40:50 PM EST
    right now.  Cong. Wasserman is emcee; mayor Dias is speaking, Sen. Nelson is on Stage, Cong Delums spoke too.

    Parent
    Outlaws, everyone of them. (none / 0) (#80)
    by Teresa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:43:05 PM EST


    Parent
    Whoa! (5.00 / 1) (#129)
    by oldpro on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:13:08 PM EST
    Do they have guns?

    Parent
    God Bless you Ruthy (none / 0) (#32)
    by athyrio on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:56:05 PM EST
    for supporting Hillary...The press and everyone is trying to stop us, but hopefully we will prevail....hang in there and this is a good blog if you wish to chat....

    yay! (none / 0) (#33)
    by Kathy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:59:10 PM EST
    Hillary already has over 50%.  Obama at near 30, which, to me, is a respectable number.  Edwards seems to have the same percentage of supporters no matter the race.  I really don't want him to disappear after this election.  He has too much good to do.

    Same affliction... (none / 0) (#36)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:04:56 PM EST
    Need sleep.

    that is a very flippant response to (none / 0) (#37)
    by athyrio on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:07:50 PM EST
    florida's votes...if i were Obama I wouldnt count on alot of love from there any time soon...dumb dumb dumb....

    What if... (none / 0) (#38)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:08:56 PM EST
    What if it's so close that they have to do a recount, that would be so precious. Watching chad counting.

    recount? (5.00 / 0) (#42)
    by Kathy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:14:58 PM EST
    Don't even joke about it.  UGH.

    CNN kind of playing down Hillary's victory, but maybe I am biased?  Made it seem like if Obama could've campaigned there, outcome would have been very different; though also said that Obama got same percentage of white vote in FL as he did in SC, and same percentage of black--then, they aggregated that out to mean trouble in the rest of the nation (except for the south...which is apparently racist, even though GA is Obama-leaning.  Doesn't make sense to a lot of my black friends who keep asking, "do they not think we're southerners, too?")  Still, not good.  He is looking at an uphill battle here, and those are a lot of states to hit in a week. Lots of money.

    BUT, 20% of precincts in and already 500K votes counted.  How can they ignore that many people voting?


    Parent

    No one was supposed to campaign in Florida (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by BluestBlue on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:27:31 PM EST
    Neither Clinton or Edwards campaigned.

    Obama ran television ads.

    Evidently he "couldn't avoid" even though he had pledged to. I wonder how Edwards and Clinton managed to avoid it?? If they were able to keep their pledge I would think Obama could too.

    So actually Hillary's win was a ROUT despite the unfair advantage Obama had by breaking his pledge and running TV ads!

    Parent

    Obama's media buyers have now (5.00 / 2) (#99)
    by ding7777 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:48:50 PM EST
    learned how to handle the "complexity" of a National ad and are doing state-targeted ads in time for Super Tuesday - fast learners, those guys are.

    link

    Parent

    Rout (none / 0) (#83)
    by Kathy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:43:54 PM EST
    I agree, and it statistically follows the same voter demographics SC did, which I find rather compelling.

    Did I already say a few hours ago I thought Obama's folks would spin this like Hillary campaigned and he honored the agreement, so that's why he wouldn't win?

    I think if you are a contender for the president, folks should know you fairly well before they go to vote.  Maybe I am wrong here or being petty because I think that the way this is being handled as a non-issue is so unfair.

    Parent

    by the way (none / 0) (#40)
    by athyrio on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:10:16 PM EST
    I watched ABC news tonite and their entire broadcast was quite neutral and great...I applaud their journalism....

    nice to hear! (none / 0) (#41)
    by Judith on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:11:51 PM EST


    Parent
    Jeralyn--Leon County (none / 0) (#50)
    by Kathy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:26:46 PM EST
    Tallahassee= home of Florida State University

    And heavily Republican (none / 0) (#54)
    by trillian on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:28:36 PM EST
    n/t

    Parent
    duh (again) (none / 0) (#56)
    by Kathy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:28:52 PM EST
    Expect Alachua (Gainsville/U of FL) to go for Obama, too

    Polls show momentum with Obama (none / 0) (#57)
    by pontificator on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:30:01 PM EST
    Exit polls show Obama won the late breaking voters.  Without early voters, Hillary would have been toast.  Sorry, Hillary, but it's not January 25 anymore.  The ground has shifted under your feet.  And this faux victory in an uncontested State will change nothing.  

    You saw that reporting on NBC (5.00 / 1) (#59)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:34:28 PM EST
    Frankly, I do not believe Russert was correct.

    The broadcast is atrocious.

    Doyou want to talk about the demographic breakdown? I know NBC did not report them.

    Real news networks did.

    Parent

    Yes, Russert was entirely confusing -- (5.00 / 1) (#71)
    by Cream City on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:38:35 PM EST
    saying early ballots split, those in until a few weeks ago for Clinton, those more recently for Obama, so it was all about the TK endorsement -- but then saying that voters today went for Clinton.

    Huh?  Then the endorsement had a one-hour impact.

    Plus, he never said how he knows this.  Are ballots dated and reported by date?  Hard to imagine that every municipality is doing so.  Or is his data from exit polls?  And if so, they had to conduct those for the last month -- perhaps posting interviewers next to random mailboxes across the state?

    Parent

    CNN (none / 0) (#63)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:35:29 PM EST
    Joins in calling the vote illegal.

    Parent
    Yup, Matthews called it illegal (5.00 / 1) (#81)
    by andgarden on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:43:12 PM EST
    He's unbelievable.

    Parent
    gosh - (none / 0) (#84)
    by Judith on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:44:25 PM EST
    now I am worried.  i mean, if he said it.

    ha.

    Parent

    whaaaat? (none / 0) (#75)
    by Judith on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:40:39 PM EST
    illegal?

    oh dear...that wont go over well.

    Parent

    oops (none / 0) (#78)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:41:58 PM EST
    Implied illegal and not real

    Parent
    ahhhh (none / 0) (#82)
    by Judith on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:43:39 PM EST
    gotcha

    Parent
    She changed the rules (none / 0) (#90)
    by pontificator on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:46:47 PM EST
    in the middle of the game.  Even Clinton fan Josh Marshall was disgusted by her conduct.

    But she still lost late breaking voters.

    Parent

    Let's Talk About Rules Shall We (5.00 / 0) (#121)
    by MO Blue on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:05:23 PM EST
    TAMPA - Barack Obama hinted during a Tampa fundraiser Sunday that if he's the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, he'll seat a Florida delegation at the party's national convention, despite national party sanctions prohibiting it.

    Obama alsoappeared to violate a pledge he and the other leading candidates took by holding a brief news conference outside the fundraiser. That was less than a day after the pledge took effect Saturday, and Obama is the first Democratic presidential candidate to visit Florida since then.
    ...
    The pledge covers anything referred to in Democratic National Committee rules as "campaigning," and those include "holding news conferences." Link


    Now I'm sure that you will find a way to rationalize Obama's actions. But let's be honest here. You and I both know that if Obama was way ahead in the polls in Florida, he would be doing exactly the same thing as Clinton.

    Parent
    Nonsense; she didn't do tv ads -- Obama did (none / 0) (#94)
    by Cream City on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:47:59 PM EST
    Go back to the blog where b.s. is taken as truth.

    Parent
    Please Prove A Link To Prove That (none / 0) (#107)
    by MO Blue on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:52:35 PM EST
    late deciders went for Obama. As you can see, several of us provided links to information that contradicts your statement. Please back up your claims.

    Parent
    on fox (none / 0) (#120)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:04:07 PM EST
    Kristol was trying to spin it and gut busted, lake break outs, Hillary 34%, Obama, 30%' They are saying the young did not come, but the old people came cause they did not get mobilized. So, what kept them from coming out to vote?

    Parent
    Not The Point (5.00 / 1) (#131)
    by MO Blue on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:15:05 PM EST
    pontificator continues to make claims that late breakers went for Obama. I want the commenter to provide me with a link to prove the comment he/she continues to make. I can and did provide a verifiable link that says late breakers went to Hillary.

    Parent
    Link (none / 0) (#148)
    by pontificator on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:34:03 PM EST
    here.

    (you have to page down).

    It's clear that Hillary's large margin came from voters who decided over a month ago.  Obama won the people who decided in the last week and last month.  Read it and weep.

    Parent

    Yes, Clinton has the most committed voters (none / 0) (#154)
    by Cream City on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:41:34 PM EST
    In Florida and everywhere, exit polls have shown  that Clinton has the most committed voters -- early deciders, and they stick with her.

    But the stats also show that she got way more of the latest deciders, today.  Did you miss that?

    So that endorsement bounce lasted about an hour.  Your guy didn't even get his "Dems for a day."

    Parent

    Link (none / 0) (#156)
    by Kathy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:44:02 PM EST
    wow, thanks for posting that.  Looks like Obama's wealthy, white, well-educated voters have decided to go Hillary.

    Parent
    Clinton Won The People Who (none / 0) (#168)
    by MO Blue on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:29:06 PM EST
    decided who to vote for today 35 to 27 an 8 pt pickup.

    It has two categories for in the last three days. In one it shows Obama 45 - Clinton 40. In the other it shows Clinton 37 - Obama 34.

    It has a category of sometime last week which shows Obama 38 - Clinton 31. It has a category of within the last week that shows Clinton 35 - Obama 35.

    Either way doesn't look like much of a pick up if any by Obama in the last week which is the normal definition of late deciders. And those that made their choice today, chose Clinton.

    Now these statics would make me weep if I were a Obama supporter.

    Cares about people like me  Clinton 42 Edwards 32 Obama 20
    Has the right experience       Clinton 83 Edwards 12 Obama   3  
    Best chance to win in Nov     Clinton 59 Edwards 11 Obama  27          

     

    Parent

    Underling the necessity of Bill Clinton (none / 0) (#169)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:44:10 PM EST
    staying on point.  I heard any number of interviews of voters in SC and FL who were unhappy with Bill's involvement in the campaign last week and sd. it influenced who they would vote for.  

    Parent
    The polls this week from Florida don't (none / 0) (#66)
    by Teresa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:36:37 PM EST
    prove your theory. If 69% made up their mind in the last week, a good portion had to go to HC. Look at the polls vs the actual vote.

    Parent
    According to CNN (none / 0) (#74)
    by RalphB on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:40:29 PM EST
    "Democratic primary voters in South Carolina who made their presidential pick in the week before voting overwhelmingly chose Barack Obama. In Florida, according to exit polls, those last-minute deciders went for Hillary Clinton."

    So much for sucky NBC!


    Parent

    there is a cure for obamania! (none / 0) (#70)
    by hellothere on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:38:05 PM EST


    Parent
    Conflicting Story Out On Late Deciders?? (none / 0) (#98)
    by MO Blue on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:48:45 PM EST
    (CNN) -- Democratic primary voters in South Carolina who made their presidential pick in the week before voting overwhelmingly chose Barack Obama. Florida, according to exit polls, those last-minute deciders went for Hillary Clinton.
    CNN


    Parent
    It's an outlawed, banned primary!! (none / 0) (#58)
    by Teresa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:34:14 PM EST
    Per Tweety. I hope they don't arrest those voters.

    It is no longer a news network (5.00 / 2) (#60)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:34:53 PM EST


    Parent
    Agree BTD (none / 0) (#65)
    by athyrio on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:36:07 PM EST
    It is exposed as a sham....

    Parent
    Yep (none / 0) (#125)
    by BDB on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:08:00 PM EST
    My guess is that the network blames Clinton for the Tweety bashing.  So he weakly apologizes and now they bash her constantly.  Fortunately, nobody watches MSNBC.

    Parent
    You might try to twist and turn (none / 0) (#62)
    by athyrio on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:35:18 PM EST
    but you cannot ignore the will of the people...besides it ain't nice to fool mother nature :-)

    Who is Roland Martin on CNN (none / 0) (#64)
    by RalphB on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:35:34 PM EST
    That guy is a total crock.

    Radio talk show host (Chicago??). (none / 0) (#77)
    by Teresa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:41:09 PM EST
    Obama supporter.

    Parent
    Here's his website: (none / 0) (#141)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:22:28 PM EST
    ROLAND MARTIN

    Parent
    Roland Martin (none / 0) (#96)
    by Kathy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:48:37 PM EST
    Mac user...and yet he is so not cool.  How can that be?  Must be a prop.

    He is outright nasty toward Clinton folk.  I don't know why he wasn't banned alongside Carville.  Of course, that would've been fair and no one is really interested in that.

    CNN just interrupted her again.  Almost 500K voters chose her and they cut her off.

    Parent

    Fox? (none / 0) (#72)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:39:08 PM EST
    Fox is being fair to Hillary...my mouth drops. The polls are holding her base.

    Jeez I ahte saying this but Fox has (none / 0) (#79)
    by RalphB on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:43:02 PM EST
    started to shine this cycle, at least for this kind of coverage.

    And bless Pat Buchanan's heart, at least he's a pro.


    Parent

    Clinton speaking at rally on C-Span and results (none / 0) (#86)
    by Cream City on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:45:51 PM EST
    Thanks for tip above re C-Span, tuned in just in time.

    Clinton pulling ahead even more -- breaking the big 5-0 with 41% in, while Obama drops to 29%, per CNN.

    CNN is showing her speech too (none / 0) (#92)
    by athyrio on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:47:01 PM EST


    Parent
    what channel (none / 0) (#103)
    by athyrio on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:51:09 PM EST
    what channel is C-span in Dish network does anyone know

    Parent
    How do we spell? (none / 0) (#87)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:45:51 PM EST
    Rout?

    I can spell it but am never sure (none / 0) (#153)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:40:06 PM EST
    whihc pronunciation to use.  

    Parent
    maybe someone needs to remind the (none / 0) (#88)
    by athyrio on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:45:52 PM EST
    parties that you simply cannot control the will of the people no matter how much propaganda you throw at them....aint gonna happen....plus you have a whole lotta pissed off women....

    Women (5.00 / 0) (#105)
    by Kathy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:52:19 PM EST
    and some folks who will be ticked off by that ad showing Obama and JFK in the same light.  Sacrilege.

    "No campaign so not a true representation of the numbers," say Obama folks.  Can someone find a poll from pre-IA re: FL?  Was he polling 30% of the vote then?  

    Clinton didn't campaign either.  There is a REASON the Clinton name is so popular in Florida.  

    Parent

    wow (none / 0) (#91)
    by andreww on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:46:58 PM EST
    celebrating something no one was competing for.  So Clinton.

    andrew, that's enough! (none / 0) (#136)
    by hellothere on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:20:01 PM EST


    Parent
    HC again mentions that we the (none / 0) (#93)
    by Teresa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:47:42 PM EST
    Democratic party will win in November. Not just her, but the party. I want Obama to do that too.

    So far, he has not been able (5.00 / 1) (#100)
    by Cream City on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:49:16 PM EST
    to fit that sentence on the teleprompter.

    Parent
    we only win if obama wins (none / 0) (#97)
    by andreww on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:48:42 PM EST
    otherwise the empire/dynasty continues.

    Parent
    Yeah, those damn dynasties (none / 0) (#109)
    by Teresa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:54:06 PM EST
    (Kennedys don't count now I suppose). You could make the rec list if you post this at the other place.

    Parent
    If (none / 0) (#133)
    by andreww on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:15:54 PM EST
    it had gone let's say Nixon - Kennedy (a full term) then another Nixon - and then a Kennedy was competing again then yes I would say the same thing.  My belief is that ultimately power corrupts - no matter who it is.  It may not be fair to Hillary, but I believe if we don't stop this now it may not stop for yet another 20 years.  Read: George Prescott Bush.  He's next.

    Parent
    So you don't think RFK should have (5.00 / 1) (#139)
    by Teresa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:20:25 PM EST
    run in 1968? Of all the arguments people make against Hillary Clinton, this is the weakest to me.

    Parent
    I think (none / 0) (#164)
    by andreww on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:12:02 PM EST
    under the situation in '68 of course he should have run.  But I'm saying you can't compare an assassinated Kennedy that was in office for less than a full term, whose presidency was preceded and followed by different families to Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton

    Parent
    Cnn (none / 0) (#106)
    by athyrio on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:52:29 PM EST
    cut off her speech....

    Parent
    ahtyrio (5.00 / 1) (#115)
    by Kathy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:59:39 PM EST
    Don't change the channel, or you will miss the COMPLETE speech given by third place "winner" Huckabee.

    For the love of all that is holy.  They cut off Clinton, who got half a million votes, to show the whole speech of a man who got 200K.

    Parent

    I think fairness in broadcasting (none / 0) (#117)
    by athyrio on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:02:32 PM EST
    should be given a new look

    Parent
    She's in Gravel-land now. (none / 0) (#130)
    by Ben Masel on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:13:14 PM EST
    "Why can't I say what I wanna say?"

    Parent
    Yeah for CSPAN (none / 0) (#104)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:51:22 PM EST
    we can watch the whole speech

    There's been nearly (none / 0) (#110)
    by ding7777 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 07:54:55 PM EST
    1 million early/absentee votes cast in Florida.

    claiming victory (none / 0) (#122)
    by andreww on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:06:00 PM EST
    when no one was allowed to compete in the state - and then requesting delegates to be seated.  We all agree the DNC screwed up royally; but what she's doing is tantamount to cheating IMO.

    If Obama was allowed to compete here I believe more people would have voted, and more would have come out for Obama.   In every other state that's voted so far the dems participated 2 to 3 times higher than the Republicans.  That same trend would have held in Florida if it was considered to "count" by everyone.  Instead, the democratic and republican turnout seems to be about even in Florida.

    Under almost any scenario I will support the democratic nominee - but if Hillary wins due to getting FL and MI delegates I will vote for McKinney because I will know our democracy is just a charade.

    McKinney (5.00 / 1) (#128)
    by BDB on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:12:59 PM EST
    Is insane, but you know that, right?

    Anyway, I tend to think that the Dems are screwed if Florida and Michigan end up deciding it either by participating or not participating.  EIther way gives a large number of voters a reason to see it as illegitimate.  Howard Dean will have made the decision that cripples the party in a year when Dems should win in a walk.  I swear only the DNC could do this.  

    Hopefully, whoever is the nominee will have the support of most Democratic voters and they won't need Michigan and Florida to secure the nomination (by either including or excluding them).  

    Parent

    Seating and counting (none / 0) (#145)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:24:54 PM EST
    I think are two different things. I heard on the radio that they were going to be seated but not counted. Is that right?

    Parent
    Does anyone know what the (none / 0) (#126)
    by ding7777 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:11:20 PM EST
    (non)delegate allocation is?

    27 delegates (none / 0) (#138)
    by Cream City on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:20:08 PM EST
    per a source I just found.  For perspective, NY has 31, California has 55 -- both Clinton states.:-)

    Another comment here says Florida is 4th in population and delegates.

    Parent

    Thats sounds more like electoral votes (none / 0) (#152)
    by ding7777 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:36:22 PM EST
    link

    Parent
    Of course; sorry (none / 0) (#165)
    by Cream City on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:14:34 PM EST
    multitasking has its limits, huh? :-)

    Parent
    I think that's electoral votes (none / 0) (#162)
    by spit on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:01:33 PM EST
    for the general.

    I can't remember the number of Dem delegates we get in CA, but I know it's several hundred.

    I assume the wiki entry is accurate on that count, and they claim 185 pledged delegates for Fl, in general, and 370 for CA.

    Parent

    See above, sorry 'bout that -- but I gotta say (5.00 / 1) (#166)
    by Cream City on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:15:24 PM EST
    Wiki can be wrong.  I bet it's okay on this, though.

    Parent
    No problem :) (none / 0) (#167)
    by spit on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:29:02 PM EST
    I was just trying to explain the whole "delegates vs. electoral votes" concept to my engaged-but-not-obsessed partner, and realized again just how confusing and convoluted our whole system can be. Not always easy to know what you're looking at.

    And yeah, I usually avoid wiki for most election related stuff. But I'd be willing to bet the delegate counts are okay.

    Parent

    Why is Obama in trouble? (none / 0) (#127)
    by talkingpoint on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:11:46 PM EST
       In South Carolina he received 24% of the White vote, and 81% of the Black vote. In Florida 22% of the White vote and 70% of the Black vote. The media will not expand on this issue, but the truth of the matter is that in two separate states he is pulling about 20% of the White votes. If this trend continues Obama will be in tremendous trouble in states that does not have a significant Black population.

    hey got (none / 0) (#135)
    by Jgarza on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:19:45 PM EST
    the same amount of white voters as JE, plus it is heavily skewed because the white population in Florida is older.  That and he didn't campaign there.

    Parent
    And SC has the second-largest AA population (none / 0) (#140)
    by Cream City on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:21:30 PM EST
    at 29% (Georgia is 1st).

    Parent
    t'point (none / 0) (#142)
    by Kathy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:23:15 PM EST
    Exactly.  In defense, though, CNN mentioned it.  They shuffled the guy off rather quickly and mumbled something about Obama not getting a chance to campaign, and that it would have been different if he'd been allowed to.

    Did anyone see Pelosi saying she was "mesmerized" by the Kennedy/Obama thing?  Not good.  We are seeing a split in the party between the people who actually vote and the people the voters elected.

    I hope Dean has a game plan.  Unless Hillary sweeps Tsuper Tuesday, there's gonna be trouble.

    Parent

    Meant to add: nationally, AAs 12.8% (none / 0) (#144)
    by Cream City on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:24:42 PM EST
    of population, to give a sense of how atypical SC is in that factor.

    But Hispanics a different factor in Florida (Cubans tend to be GOP) and other states; Asian Americans a factor in California, too, etc. . . .

    It's one heck of a complicated and interesting country.

    Parent

    Meanwhile, although Jimmy Carter (none / 0) (#157)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:44:47 PM EST
    will not endorse, his entire extended family, per him, is going for Obama and Carter is clearly under Obama's spell.

    WSJ

    Thanks for the link! (none / 0) (#163)
    by oldpro on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:05:33 PM EST


    Parent
    You're losing it Pontificator (none / 0) (#160)
    by BluestBlue on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:50:52 PM EST
    You said "But she still lost late breaking voters. "

    I think I'll let you sit in the corner and babble to yourself now.

    Thread closing (none / 0) (#170)
    by Jeralyn on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 01:14:23 AM EST
    Comments are closing here. A few were deleted due to someone posting a long url that exceeded the site's capacity.  There are two newer Florida threads up you can comment on and one new Feb. 5 thread.

    Thanks to all for your contributions.

    Florida Primary Results: First Live Thread | 157 comments (157 topical)