Come September, when Gen. David Petraeus, the commander in Iraq, says that he will be able to judge whether the new tactics and the nearly 30,000 additional troops have turned the tide in the effort to reduce the carnage in Baghdad, different political forces will prevail.
If he is successful and if the Iraqis begin to make the political accommodations needed to form a stable government, the president will be in a far better position to rally domestic support for the cause. If not, you can expect to see many congressional Republicans joining the Democrats in a demand for a "Plan B" that would probably lead to an early exit by a substantial portion of American troops.
The "many Republicans" mentioned in this column do not exist and never have existed. But what I find interesting is the notion that if Bush's Surge strategy is successful that means US troops have to stay in Iraq for a longer haul. If they are unsuccessful, then they will leave early. This seems nonsensical to me, but entirely Beltway.
The truth is, in a sane world, success would lead to the Iraqis "standing up" and the US "standing down" and failure would lead to the realization that there is no military solution to the problems of Iraq now. In EITHER case, ending the Debacle on the date certain of April 1, 2008 would be the logical position of all. Those who believe in the Surge and those who do not.
This is why I support the Reid-Feingold framework that calls for NOT funding the Iraq Debacle after April 1, 2008. This plan is PRAGMATIC because (1) it takes into account the fact that the President will veto legislation that ends the war, (2) but that he can not force the Congress to fund the Debacle, (3) that "abandoning the troop sion the field is not a politically viable option, (4) but announcing a date certain for ending the war that gives the American People and the President of the United States 11 months warning for getting the troops out of the field, is politically viable, even politically advantageous.
This is the ONLY way to end the war during the Bush Presidency. All the rest is, as John Edwards says, noise.