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Iraq Supplemental: Who You Gonna Believe? Obey Or Your Lying Eyes?

Yesterday the AP reported:

In grudging concessions to President Bush, Democrats intend to draft an Iraq war-funding bill without a timeline for the withdrawal of U.S. troops and shorn of billions of dollars in spending on domestic programs, officials said Monday.

This story was not believed by the Panglosses of the Netroots. And today, Rep. Obey gives them hope:

“There is no deal,” said Representative David R. Obey, the Wisconsin Democrat who is the chairman of the Appropriations Committee and is one of the lead negotiators over the war money.

Uh huh. Given the history of the Iraq Supplemental bill I think anyone trusting in Obey's words is just being foolish. I'll go through it on the flip.

In March we heard this:

The frustration of some Democratic leaders as they painstakingly build a majority boiled over in an outburst this week by Representative David R. Obey, a Wisconsin Democrat and chairman of the Appropriations Committee, who blew up at a persistent antiwar activist . . . In an exchange that was videotaped by another activist and quickly posted on the Internet, Mr. Obey declared that, ''We don't have the votes to defund the war, and we shouldn't!'' He described proponents of a financing cutoff as ''these idiot liberals.'' Mr. Obey apologized in a statement on Friday.

In the Senate, it is not enough for Democrats to hold their own majority; rules require a super majority of 60 votes to force a vote on their Iraq legislation, a binding resolution that sets a ''goal'' for a pullout in 2008 and redefines the American mission in Iraq. That means Democrats must attract about a dozen Republicans.

And even if, by some miracle, both houses managed to pass legislation requiring a withdrawal, President Bush has clearly signaled that he intends to veto it, and the Democrats fall far short of the necessary two-thirds vote to override a veto. As a result, what is essentially happening in Congress right now is an attempt to ratchet up the political pressure -- on Republican moderates, especially in the Senate, and on the president -- to change course in Iraq.

. . . ''This is a campaign,'' Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, said at a news conference on Friday, as senators headed home. ''We are going to keep at it, and we are going to continue this discussion for the good of the country. And we believe the more it is debated and discussed, the more the difference between the parties is apparent to the American people, the less flexibility the president will have in maintaining his course.''

Senator Carl Levin, chairman of the Armed Services Committee, agreed, as the Senate looked toward another procedural fight next week over Iraq: ''We succeed even if we don't get 60 votes.'' Step by step, vote by vote, the pressure grows, Democrats say.

The pressure grows does it? Well, let's see what happened. The House Supplemental bill included a "binding date" of September 2008 to end the war. It was not really binding, as a close reading of the bill would demonstrate. It was not even possibly pragmatically binding, as no Congress will "not fund the troops two months before an election. But progressives and the Netroots demanded fealty to this travesty:

Matt Stoller says:

Pelosi's compromise is messy, but there's no clean solution here. The public is against this war, but it is not for complete withdrawal. Change is still a very scary prospect.

My question to Stoller and Meyerson is this - what part of the Pelosi "compromise" do they like? What is it that they feel is worth ANYTHING? Specifically, what?

Harold Meyerson jumps on the beat up on on antiwar folks bandwagon:

We're trying to use the supplemental," [Obey] explained, "to end the war." . . . In effect, what the protesters are doing is making the unattainable perfect the enemy of the barely-attainable good. Because Obey is quite right: The votes aren't there to shut down funding for the war. What he and Pelosi and the rest of the Democratic leadership in both houses are about is finding some way to curtail the president's determination to pass the war on to his successor regardless of the continuing cost to U.S. interests and lives.

What Meyerson does is simply repeat nonsense about what some of us are seeking - not the unattainable perfect as he so breezily dismisses it, but the attainable, indeed the ONLY, method for reaching the goal Myerson purports to support-ending the war before the next President is in office.

Consider on the flip Meyerson's views on what the House is doing to gauge just how unserious Meyerson is in this article.

Attaching conditions to the appropriations bill is not a foolproof way to accomplish that, as Pelosi and Obey would readily admit. It is merely the best of the imperfect options to wind down U.S. involvement in Iraq, given the narrowness of their congressional majorities and the presence of George W. Bush in the White House.

First, NO conditions have survived the Blue Dog assault! Bush needs to merely certify that national security demands whatever he asks for.

Then Meyerson writes:

What Pelosi and Obey understand that their critics on the left seem to ignore is that it will take numerous congressional votes and multiple confrontations with Bush to build the support required to end U.S. involvement.

SO that explains funding the war through October 2008? Because that means there will be no more votes on funding. Why not a short term funding bill? Why not the simple provision that was excised from the proposal, no funding after October 2008?

Meyerson continues:

Thanks to the Constitution's division of powers, Congress and the White House seem bound for months of fighting over the conditions attached to any approval of funds for continuing our operations in Iraq.

This is sheer nonsense. The Congress does not have to haggle over restrictions. It can choose NOT to fund the war. What in blazes is Myerson talking about?

Over time, as the war drags on, either enough Republicans will join their Democratic colleagues to put an end to U.S. intervention, or they will stick with Bush, thereby ensuring there will be a sufficient number of Democrats in the next Congress to end the war.

SO that is the end game for Meyerson and the Dem leadership, run on Iraq in 2008. But what happens when there is nothing to point to? This supplemental gives Bush everthing he wants. IT is the DEM proposal. What confrontation is Meyerson talking about?

For the record, this is my proposal:

In reality there are two positions available now -for ending the Debacle or for continuing it. It is that simple. And the choice is binary. Because President George W. Bush makes it so. Bush listens to no one, except Cheney.

Many ask 'so what is a Democratic Congress to do?' With Mitch McConnell promising filibusters to all attempts to revoke the Iraq AUMF, cap troop levels and to cut funding for the Iraq Debacle, what is it I am asking of the Democratic Congress?

Let me explain again - I ask for three things: First, announce NOW that the Democratic Congress will NOT fund the Iraq Debacle after a date certain. You pick the date. Whatever works politically. If October 2007 is the date Dems can agree to, then let it be then. If March 2008, then let that be the date; Second, spend the year reminding the President and the American People every day that Democrats will not fund the war past the date certain; Third, do NOT fund the Iraq Debacle PAST the date certain.

Some argue we will never have the votes for this. That McConnell will filibuster, that Bush will veto. To them I say I KNOW. But filbustering and vetoing does not fund the Iraq Debacle. Let me repeat, to end the war in Iraq, the Democratic Congress does not have to pass a single bill; they need only NOT pass bills that fund the Iraq Debacle.

But but but, defund the whole government? Defund the whole military? What if Bush does not pull out the troops? First, no, not defund the government, defund the Iraq Debacle. If the Republicans choose to shut down government in order to force the continuation of the Iraq Debacle, do not give in. Fight the political fight. We'll win. Second, defund the military? See answer to number one. Third, well, if you tell the American People what is coming for a year, and that Bush is on notice, that i t will be Bush abandoning the troops in Iraq, we can win that politcal battle too.

Understand this, if you want to end the Iraq Debacle, this is the only way until Bush is not President. If you are not for this for ending the war, tell me what you do support. I think this is the only way. And if you shy away from the only way to end the Debacle, then you really are not for ending the war are you?

Meyerson's fantasy scenarios do not change the reality that Dems are now making Iraq their war too.

Once the House passed its version of the bill, the Netroots rejoiced, indeed, predicting Bush would veto the House bill. I pointed out that Bush would not even see the House bill:

[W]hat bill will Bush see? The Senate now starts from a weak baseline - and McConnell has the filibuster power. What bill will Bush see? If he sees any bill, it will certainly be even weaker than this bill. Then Bush starts to negotiate. Markos thinks this is the end of the concessions. It is only the beginning of the "compromises."

And on March 25, the Senate moved to strip the House bill of binding deadlines:

Daily Kos trumpets the Senate's quick move on the Iraq Supplemental:
The Senate appears to be prepared to move quickly toward a vote on the supplemental spending bill containing language about benchmarks and withdrawal from Iraq that the House passed Friday - the vote could come as early as Tuesday. Republicans will be trying to remove all timetables from the bill - to them, even non-binding deadlines are too much an affront to Bush's power to wage endless war. So now the fight is to retain NON-binding deadlines in the supplemental funding bill?

And it was. The Senate passed a bill with non-binding timelines. And it went to conference and that is what emerged as the bill sent to Bush. And he vetoed it. I breathed a sigh of relief. Because that bill was bad. I suggested the following strategy. The Democratic Congress instead, via the House, offered the short term funding "short leash" approach. The Senate offered nothing, choosing instead to negotiate in conference with the House, Bush and the Senate GOP. They have promised a bill by the end of the week.

Who expects a binding timeline after the President vetoed a bill with non-binding timelines? The likely deal will be this:

The initial House bill, while supported by Move On and the Netroots, was in fact the worst deal possible, as it would have ostensibly set an end date two months before the 2008 elections, thereby insuring that in fact, the Debacle would continue past the end of the Bush presidency. It truly was a terrible bill.

Since then, the House passed a so-called "short leash" bill that provided 2 months of funding with a release of remaining funds in July. For those who favor the "ratcheting up the pressure" approach, this bill makes good sense. I do not think much of that approach, but it does notwork against a date certain for not funding approach I favor, the framework embodied in the McGovern Amendment and in Reid-Feiongold.

Now we see what is likely to emerge as the Senate proposal, and it is something Bush will sign. GOP Senator John Warner proposed it:

That second proposal, by Senator John Warner, Republican of Virginia, would require Mr. Bush to report to Congress in mid-July and mid-September on how well the Iraqi government was performing against a set of benchmarks. Foreign aid could be withheld for lack of progress, but, at the insistence of the White House, a provision was added allowing Mr. Bush to waive any penalties.

Bush basically endorsed this approach today:

[Bush] said he respected the desire of members to include benchmarks in the bill that the Iraqi government should meet.
So the Warner Amendment it is. Will the House go along? I predict they will. Does this matter? If you believe in "ratcheting up the pressure," I imagine you think it does. As I do not, I find this pretty meaningless. What we need to end the war is a date certain for not funding it. And the Iraq Supplemental will not be about that.

And yesterday, AP reported the obvious. And today Obey says there is "no deal." But there will be a deal. The Warner deal. And only a Pangloss can not see that.

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  • Display: Sort:
    We need a 2/3 Majority! (5.00 / 3) (#4)
    by andgarden on Tue May 22, 2007 at 09:07:14 AM EST
    la la la la la la la la la! ::sticks fingers in ears::

    Preordained failure (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by fafnir on Tue May 22, 2007 at 09:10:10 AM EST
    Excellent recap of the decisions and events that led the chickens home to roost.

    As many here have already observed, any approach other than giving Bush a "blank check" was doomed to fail so long as Democrats believed they needed to "have the votes" to shut-off funding, and feared being blamed for "not funding the troops" (whatever that means).

    In effect, the Democratic majority telegraphed their lack the moral and political commitment to stop funding the occupation, and to leverage the consequences of federal anti-deficiency law to chain the dogs of war.

    If he has any self-respect, Obey should stop lying long enough to allow Democrats and their enablers to capitulate with an illusion of dignity.

    I'm with Arthur Silber (5.00 / 2) (#8)
    by JHFarr on Tue May 22, 2007 at 09:21:18 AM EST
    The so-called netroots have failed miserably by supporting the Democratic buffoons. The simple fact is that the Democrats are not stopping the war and won't stop the next one, either. No relief is possible by supporting Democrats. N-O-N-E. They have let a hated, unelected president have his way. They are worthless.

    I don't know who Arthur Silber is (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 22, 2007 at 10:13:54 AM EST
    but if he said that, I asgree with him.

    Parent
    Arthur Silber (none / 0) (#11)
    by Edger on Tue May 22, 2007 at 10:21:18 AM EST
    Theater of Death
    [some] liberal and progressive bloggers act as if they are largely indifferent to bringing about a quick end to the incomprehensibly deadly Iraq occupation. They certainly demonstrate no sustained, serious effort to pressure Congressional Democrats into defunding the war - or into acting to oppose an attack on Iran in every way possible.  The concerns of these bloggers and the Washington Democrats are perfectly coextensive: they will condemn the Iraq war and act to block an attack on Iran only to the degree such actions will not endanger their perceived political opportunities in 2008.


    Parent
    If Obey says there ain't a deal (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by fairleft on Tue May 22, 2007 at 09:49:18 AM EST
    that means it's time to call/e-mail your Congressperson and pressure him/her to cut off funding or make the funding very short-term, or include a date certain when funding is stopped. In my humble opinion, it doesn't mean it's time to rag on Obey.

    Stop jumping the "I give up!" gun, people, this bill is still in play.

    Read my diary on this over at (none / 0) (#13)
    by fairleft on Tue May 22, 2007 at 12:16:25 PM EST
    But it NOT in play (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 22, 2007 at 12:29:49 PM EST
    The time to fight was the original House bill. AGAINST IT! You do realize the bill the President vetoed was a complete cavein.

    This is just the inevitable end.

    When you start fighting for the Reid-Feingold framework, THE ONLY WAY to end the war, give me a call.

    You are fighting for a BAD bill!

    I will NOT join you.  

    Parent

    The AP article (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Warren Terrer on Tue May 22, 2007 at 12:34:55 PM EST
    seems to have been confirmed.

    Parent
    and AP article says the bill's particulars (none / 0) (#19)
    by fairleft on Tue May 22, 2007 at 12:56:38 PM EST
    are in play. Let's urge the House to accept only short-leash funding with votes every 2/3 months on further funding.

    Parent
    But even he hasn't given up all hope (none / 0) (#20)
    by Alien Abductee on Tue May 22, 2007 at 01:03:20 PM EST
    Feingold says putting pressure on Dems not to cave still has a chance:

    This is no time to back down.  This fight to end the war isn't something that we can just put off or kick down the road. As mcjoan pointed out, it doesn't make any sense to wait until this "mythical September" when Republicans will suddenly decide that we need to get out of Iraq.  Why should this wait until September?  First Americans had to put up with a Republican Congress that did nothing, and now we are faced with a Democratic Congress that is giving the President exactly what he wants - continuing his failed policy and leaving our troops stuck in the middle of a civil war.  Some strategy.  We can't back down when the stakes are so high.  I know you'll keep ratcheting up the pressure, and that's exactly what we need right now. Now is the time to be pulling out all the stops to end the war.


    Parent
    The House bill was "short-leash" (none / 0) (#18)
    by fairleft on Tue May 22, 2007 at 12:55:08 PM EST
    funding with votes in July and September on further funding. You know, the bill the House sent over to the Senate a couple weeks ago. My hope is that by September 50% of the House will vote against further funding.

    I agreed with you that the bill Bush vetoed was a terrible bill.

    Parent

    I'm especially tired (5.00 / 2) (#12)
    by Warren Terrer on Tue May 22, 2007 at 11:08:12 AM EST
    of the argument that congress must haggle with Bush over the conditions for funding. All congress has to do is set the conditions for funding. If Bush fails to meet the conditions, funding ends.

    This can work because the conditions do not need to go into any bill. They just need to be publicly stated by the Dem leadership.

    That being said, however, I still support BTD's position that the only condition for funding should be a date certain. Once that date is reached, funding ends.

    No, what the Dem leadership says (none / 0) (#14)
    by fairleft on Tue May 22, 2007 at 12:21:36 PM EST
    will not be sufficient. Republicans + Blue Dogs = Bush gets more quagmire funding. Frankly, the Democratic leadership's word has proven weak as heck.

    What needs to happen: 50% of the House must vote 'no' on Iraq funding. Right now, the best alternative is for 175+ House members voting against the cave-in bill the Senate bipartisanly is sending them (and make the bill a 'Republicans + Blue Dogs + Whimpy Dem Leaders' bill). Or, House Democrats need to negotiate real short-leash features into the bill most of them will approve.

    Parent

    I'm afraid I (none / 0) (#17)
    by Warren Terrer on Tue May 22, 2007 at 12:41:52 PM EST
    don't really understand this comment.

    Parent
    we need votes, not leadership statements (none / 0) (#21)
    by fairleft on Tue May 22, 2007 at 01:05:29 PM EST
    ... the conditions do not need to go into any bill. They just need to be publicly stated by the Dem leadership.

    If the conditions are stated by the leadership, that means nothing for Iraq funding (if, as will be the case, the Blue Dogs are not stating the same thing). If the conditions are stated by a majority of either the House or Senate, then you have something meaningful. Even then, however, I would bet Bush would call the Democrats on this and see if they were bluffing. And I bet some of them might have been.

    Why not keep things simple: oppose further funding for the occupation. Even attempt to pass a bill funding withdrawal that Bush will angrily veto. But the only way, really, for the war to stop is for the 'no' votes to get to 50% of the House. (That's why 'short-leash' funding is better than long-term, because it forces repeated votes where the 'no' vote will start to bandwagon). Call that Feingold-Reid-esque or not, that's what has to happen.

    Parent

    MyDD: You have been warned . . . (none / 0) (#23)
    by fairleft on Fri May 25, 2007 at 11:54:58 AM EST
    Thought you all would be entertained and warned yourselves by what I saw yesterday above my Was dailykos in on Iraq funding 'foreplay'? post at MyDD:

    You have been warned . . .
    2007-05-24 22:05:44

    MyDD is not Dailykos. If you have a problem with Dailykos, write about it Dailykos. We are not the Dailykos trash can. Bring it here again, and it will result in being banned.

    [Check box] I understand the above warning (posting is no longer allowed until this is acknowledged).

    Reluctantly, I did check the little box. Well, at least MyDD gives a warning of and a reason for potential banning.


    Parent

    Why? Why? (none / 0) (#1)
    by Carrion on Tue May 22, 2007 at 08:15:05 AM EST
    Do these people talk out of both sides of their mouths? I'm referring to Reid, Pelosi, Obey et al. Just a few days ago Reid said the new supplemental bill would be "very close" to what Bush just received. Before that he said the second bill would be close to the first. How can we believe these folks anymore, if what we are hearing from the AP is true? Why talk tough if you're not willing to follow through? It makes no sense. Did he think he had more votes than he did? Isn't it his job to KNOW what kind of support he has? Jesus. It's one thing to give Bush a clean bill, it's another thing to make claims and then not follow through on them. If you don't have the votes, don't act like you do.

    Before it's repeated again here today... (none / 0) (#2)
    by Edger on Tue May 22, 2007 at 08:39:29 AM EST
    The ridiculous and intentionally misleading often repeated whine that "The votes aren't there to shut down funding for the war" means only that "The desire isn't there to shut down funding for the war"

    Stollers and Meyersons and DKos' and MoveOns and Pelosis and Levins and Obeys, "movement" has the sole objective of "winning" in 2008. All else is secondary consideration.

    If the "war" is ended in the process that helps the movement of course, but only as long as it is done according to the leaderships plan and no other plan.

    All other plans and their planners must be swarmed and discredited. The leadership cannot be allowed to look foolish or the movement is over.

    But whether or not the "war" is ended is immaterial.

    The end of the "war" would be held up as a goal achieved. It's continuance provides "ending it" as a great and noble goal to work towards.

    The wrench in the works is the "defunders".

    Democrats: unwilling and unable to really end it (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by dutchfox on Tue May 22, 2007 at 09:12:29 AM EST
    Larry Everest in Zmag: The Bush Veto, the Democrats' Response, and Why Millions Must Break with the Politics of Empire

    Democrats also have to try to maintain the loyalty of their supporters (to both the party and the system), millions of whom have turned against the war and are furious at the Democrats. So we get all the talk of carrying out the "will of the voters" and "moving to end the war"--while horrendous crimes continue to be carried out in Iraq and they do nothing to really put an end to the war.



    Parent
    LA Times today (none / 0) (#7)
    by Edger on Tue May 22, 2007 at 09:17:29 AM EST
    The major concession to the president on the war spending bill comes as leaders in Congress cannot muster veto-proof majorities.

    ...Scrambling to send President Bush an emergency war spending bill he will sign, Democratic leaders have decided to drop their insistence on a timeline for withdrawing U.S. forces from Iraq.

    The move - which comes just days after senior Democrats insisted that White House officials should support nonbinding timelines - is a significant concession to the president and his Republican allies on Capitol Hill, who steadfastly have rejected any dates for bringing U.S. troops home.

    But it reflects the simple mathematics of a closely divided Congress in which Democrats cannot muster veto-proof majorities for any proposal that would compel a pullout.

    Defunding? Whaazzat?

    Parent
    The veto-proof majority excuse (none / 0) (#22)
    by fairleft on Tue May 22, 2007 at 01:07:47 PM EST
    Automatic inside-the-beltway pro-warrior status for any Democrat spouting that nonsense.

    Parent
    But isn't... (none / 0) (#3)
    by Carrion on Tue May 22, 2007 at 08:50:01 AM EST
    the problem that they don't have a plan? It seems that they are flailing about, and that is what I find actually inexcusable. If there is a plan, they're doing a good job of looking very confused.