By Big Tent Democrat

I have the solution for the Florida/Michigan disaster. Seat half of the Michigan and Florida delegations based on the existing results. Then schedule a Florida primary and a Michigan caucus primary in mid-May. If there is no need because Obama has already locked up the nomination in April, then, seat all the delegation based on the existing results and cancel the May contests.

This enfranchises those voters who voted previously AND ensures that Obama gets a fair shot at winning those two states. And it would be a great tiebreaker for deciding the nominee if we are still deadlocked come May. No one could complain could they? Someone will win this thing fair and square and then we can unify.

What am I missing? Is that not a brilliant solution?

Update (TL): Comments are closed now, more than 225 of them, thanks for your thoughts.

By Big Tent Democrat

This is good from MoDo. Except for this:

While Obama aims to transcend race, Hillary often aims to use gender to her advantage, or to excuse mistakes.

Absurd. Obama clearly is benefitting from his race, and more power to him. Hillary' gender is clearly a double edged sword, as MoDO basically accepted in the previous part of her column.

In any event, a much more thoughtful MoDo than we have come to expect. Tell me what you think.

Hillary Clinton's campaign has released a statement today, The Path to the Nomination.

The campaign also notes that since Super Tuesday, it has received more than $13 million online from 135,000 donors (virtually all new).

She also congratulates Sen. Obama on his victories in recent contests.

I've reprinted the statement below the fold:

NOTE: Comments are now closed. (BTD)

By Big Tent Democrat

That's what ABC says:

Though he sometimes aligned himself with Obama — and against Clinton — as a candidate, several Edwards campaign insiders say the former senator began to sour on Obama toward the end of his own campaign, and ultimately left the race questioning whether Obama had the toughness needed to prevail in a presidential race.

"He is much more torn than people realize," said one former aide who has stayed in contact with Edwards. "Honestly, he has serious reservations about both of them."

Me too, John. Me too.

By Big Tent Democrat

Barack Obama is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. He is likely to be the pledged delegate leader at the end of the process. What else does Obama need? To me, one of two thing. He needs to be the clear popular vote winner (which means larger than the Florida spread) and/or he has to win one of the big contested primaries remaining - Texas, Ohio or Pennsylvania. Why?

To my way of thinking, Obama has yet to prove he can win some of the key states' primaries, states Dems need in a general election. And this is not an unprecedented criteria for a potential nominee. Many like to compare Obama to JFK. And this episode in JFK's fight for the Presidency is instructive:

Here's what I'd like to see for Virginia, Maryland and D.C: Delegate apportionment, broken down by pledged to Obama, pledged to Hillary, Uncommitted, Superdelegates.

Then I'd like to see a national total including tonight's results.

I think I just heard John King on CNN say Hillary and Obama are now essentially even, which suprised me. I would have thought Obama would be ahead after tonight, and Hillary would need TX, Ohio and PA to catch up.

Has anyone seen credible counts?

By Big Tent Democrat

Obama is winning Maryland handily but the questions remain the same for me in terms of whether he will win the nomination. The demographics are my point:

(%age of vote) Clinton Obama

White Democrats

(43%) 55% 42%

Black Democrats

(33%) 16% 84%

Latino Democrats

(4%) 56% 44%

That demographic breakdown on voting margins loses Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania handily for Obama. Obama still has a lot to prove in terms of winning contested large primaries. And yes, this is important for the general election as well.

NOTE comments are now closed in this thread

By Big Tent Democrat

All the networks call it. NBC says the exit polls had the following demo breakdowns, but CNN has different exit poll results:

Clinton win whites 52-48, white women 56-42. Obama wins white men 55-45. African Americans were 29% of the vote. Assuming Obama takes 80% [CNN says Obama took 90%] of that vote, I calculate Obama carrying 62% of the vote.

Update (TL): The county/geographic map is here. Tim Russert says 20% of voters were Independent and 8% were Republcans who crossed over to vote in the primary. More than 70% of these voters went for Obama -- The cross-over candidate. All these figures are exit poll results. Russert says Obama will tout this as a sign of his electability in November, that he can win Republicans and Independents. I take it as another sign he's a compromiser and not a fighter for a progressive agenda.

Update [2008-2-12 20:17:12 by Big Tent Democrat]: Obama Wins DC says NBC.

Update [2008-2-12 20:41:36 by Big Tent Democrat]: Chuck Todd projects delegate split as 49 to 52 for Obama and 34 to 31 for Clitnon. From 15 to 21 delegate gain for Obama.

Update (TL): Comments closing here, you can continue discussion of tonight's primaries here.

Former U.S. Ambassador Joseph Wilson makes some interesting points on why Barack Obama's foreign policy positions show his relative ineptitide in this area.

He also uses a past exchange between Obama and John McCain to show Obama isn't a fighter and may be one who capitulates too easily.

But will Mr. Obama fight? His brief time on the national scene gives little comfort. Consider a February 2006 exchange of letters with Mr. McCain on the subject of ethics reform. The wrathful Mr. McCain accused Mr. Obama of being "disingenuous," to which Mr. Obama meekly replied, "The fact that you have now questioned my sincerity and my desire to put aside politics for the public interest is regrettable but does not in any way diminish my deep respect for you."

Mr. McCain was insultingly dismissive but successful in intimidating his inexperienced colleague. Thus, in his one known face-to-face encounter with Mr. McCain, Mr. Obama failed to stand his ground.

Of Obama's foreign policy pronouncements, Wilson says: [More...]

By big Tent Democrat

SurveyUSA has Clinton ahead in Ohio 56-39. The poll was taken 2/11. It seems that Obama's Big Mo has not yet worked there. But after the Wisconsin primary on 2/19, he'll have two weeks to campaign there. We'll see what happens.

Via Partially Impartial, Clinton wins women 62-33. Wow!

By Big Tent Democrat

I like Potomac Primaries better than "Chesapeake Contests." Other than that, my CW is that Obama wins the three contests (VA, MD and DC) by 20 points each and picks up a +35 delegates tonight.

He is the frontrunner now, but has one more important test - win a big contested state - he has 3 chances, Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania. Win any of these and he is the nominee.Lose them all and Hillary is the nominee.

This is an Open Thread.

Here is some interesting news, Hillary only down 11 in Wisconsin. I expected her to be done 20.

NOTE: Comments are closed. Some of you are incorrigible. I hope it does not require suspensions and bannings.

By Big Tent Democrat

Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell is a Hillary Clinton supporter. He apparently said this:

"You've got conservative whites here, and I think there are some whites who are probably not ready to vote for an African-American candidate."

Is this true? Undoubtedly. Should Rendell have said it. Undoubtedly not. He is the Governor of Pennsylvania and a prominent supporter of Hillary Clinton. He does not get to say this. It is inflammatory.

NOTE: this comment thread is closed.