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Obama Wins Virginia

By Big Tent Democrat

All the networks call it. NBC says the exit polls had the following demo breakdowns, but CNN has different exit poll results:

Clinton win whites 52-48, white women 56-42. Obama wins white men 55-45. African Americans were 29% of the vote. Assuming Obama takes 80% [CNN says Obama took 90%] of that vote, I calculate Obama carrying 62% of the vote.

Update (TL): The county/geographic map is here. Tim Russert says 20% of voters were Independent and 8% were Republcans who crossed over to vote in the primary. More than 70% of these voters went for Obama -- The cross-over candidate. All these figures are exit poll results. Russert says Obama will tout this as a sign of his electability in November, that he can win Republicans and Independents. I take it as another sign he's a compromiser and not a fighter for a progressive agenda.

Update [2008-2-12 20:17:12 by Big Tent Democrat]: Obama Wins DC says NBC.

Update [2008-2-12 20:41:36 by Big Tent Democrat]: Chuck Todd projects delegate split as 49 to 52 for Obama and 34 to 31 for Clitnon. From 15 to 21 delegate gain for Obama.

Update (TL): Comments closing here, you can continue discussion of tonight's primaries here.

< Joseph Wilson: Why Obama's Lacking in Foreign Policy Affairs | Demographics of Virginia Counties Won by Hillary >
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  • Display: Sort:
    Came from behind! (5.00 / 1) (#87)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:54:17 PM EST
    I find it interesting when Obama supporters point out that Obama was way behind in the Potomac states polls in October, but CAME from BEHIND to win in a huge way.

    It's as if his name recognition equalled Hillary's back then and he just gained popularity in the last few months due to his excellent policies.

    However, when anyone points out that he lost Florida?  Well, that was due to lack of name recognition.

    As the public (none / 0) (#99)
    by doordiedem0crat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:01:22 PM EST
    becomes more aware about Barack, the better the turn out for him. If Florida or Michigan re-voted. Hillary may not have the delegate count.

    Parent
    Independents are scary! (1.00 / 1) (#164)
    by dmfox on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:29:38 PM EST
    The county/geographic map is here. Tim Russert says 20% of voters were Independent and 8% were Republcans who crossed over to vote in the primary. More than 70% of these voters went for Obama -- The cross-over candidate. All these figures are exit poll results. Russert says Obama will tout this as a sign of his electability in November, that he can win Republicans and Independents. I take it as another sign he's a compromiser and not a fighter for a progressive agenda.

    Yes BTD, inspiring independents to vote for a Democrat is a terrible thing.  You say you're a tepid Obama supporter, but smear him for positive developments like winning a lot of independent voters from John McCain.  With this kind of logic, BTD will find a loser more honorable than a winner in November, provided he wins the Northeast and California.  Nevermind the fact that Obama could get more votes than Hillary and McCain combined tonight in a red state primary.

    Bowers is also reporting that there is no difference in voting among education levels, and that Obama won the Latino vote.

    But then, I forgot, Virginia doesn't count, even though it's a primary, because independents can vote in their primary, and black people live there, and it's not a core blue state like Massachusetts.

    Keep spinning, BTD.

    Excuse me (none / 0) (#170)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:31:58 PM EST
    I did not write what you are attacking and you do not get to insult either Jeralyn or I at this site.

    Do it again and you will be suspended.

    Parent

    Sorry if I went a little overboard (none / 0) (#195)
    by dmfox on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:39:56 PM EST
    I just couldn't believe your comment that destroying McCain among independents shows something wrong with Obama's candidacy.  I found the logic baffling.  In Virginia, of all places, Obama is wiping the floor with not just Hillary, but the Republicans as well.  You think a Democrat would get excited about a candidate performing this well in a red state primary instead of baselessly smear him for it.

    Sorry to conflate your comment with the spin the Clinton campaign has put on Obama's victories at the end of my comment.  I don't usually fly off the handle like that.  I just found your observation counterintuitive to, you know, winning elections.

    Parent

    I just told you (none / 0) (#209)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:48:08 PM EST
    it was NOT my comment.

    Parent
    Why? (none / 0) (#177)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:34:29 PM EST
    Do tell me why does someone having a different opinion or posing some different questions upset you so? I just don't get it.

    Parent
    I just thought we were in the business of winning (none / 0) (#199)
    by dmfox on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:41:44 PM EST
    elections, not ripping on a candidate for convincing independents to vote for him, independents any Democrat will need in November.

    Parent
    He took 90% of AA votes. (none / 0) (#1)
    by Teresa on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:19:15 PM EST
    They just discussed on MSNBC that being a black candidate benefits him in a Democratic primary and it seems white men won't vote for a women.

    They pay people at MSNBC to come up with (none / 0) (#3)
    by Geekesque on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:21:03 PM EST
    that crap?

    Parent
    Soon you learn to turn off the TV (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:21:55 PM EST
    my tv is off (none / 0) (#69)
    by dutchfox on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:46:34 PM EST
    I rely on TL!

    Parent
    SO does that (none / 0) (#8)
    by Jgarza on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:22:35 PM EST
    mean that white women aren't willing to vote for a black man?  Since you insist on viewing this entire election through the lens of identity politics?

    Parent
    When a candidate gets 90% of a (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:24:08 PM EST
    particular demographic group, that's worth talking about. Not the only thing worth talking about, though.

    Parent
    Very true (none / 0) (#13)
    by BlueLakeMichigan on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:25:20 PM EST
    If it's true, then it's not something to be ignored, but there are so many other factors, too.

    Parent
    Well, he might get 95% in Pennsylvania (none / 0) (#14)
    by Geekesque on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:25:56 PM EST
    thanks to Fast Eddie.

    Parent
    "Fast Eddie" (none / 0) (#23)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:28:14 PM EST
    is like "Billary." Right wing BS conveniently appropriated by Obama supporters.

    And frankly, everyone knows Obama is going to win the black vote in PA.

    Parent

    That's a little oversensitive. (none / 0) (#39)
    by Geekesque on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:35:05 PM EST
    Corzine 'blessed' to be alive; Rendell still 'Fast Eddie'

    Calling a guy known for violating the speed limit while driving "Fast Eddie" hardly seems like a vicious slur.

    The newspaper reported his Cadillac limousine was clocked at 100 mph nine times by troopers since November.


    Parent

    "fast Eddie" goes back before that (none / 0) (#43)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:36:34 PM EST
    and was coined, if I'm not mistaken, by Michael Smerconish.

    Parent
    Used by the NY Times: (none / 0) (#50)
    by Geekesque on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:39:15 PM EST
    THE 2004 CAMPAIGN: THE PENNSYLVANIA GOVERNOR; In 'Fast Eddie,' Kerry Has Statehouse Ally

    I would concede that it's not a turn of phrase meant to flatter him, but that was kinda my point.

    Also, dude's a speed demon.  

    Parent

    Ah, Obama Supporters (none / 0) (#67)
    by BDB on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:46:00 PM EST
    Never shy to insult other democrats using Republican smears.  Feel the unity.

    Parent
    BDB (none / 0) (#165)
    by auntmo on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:30:31 PM EST
    Yes. They now  sound  like   freepers.

    Parent
    Come on... (none / 0) (#183)
    by mindfulmission on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:35:43 PM EST
    .. Freepers?  Are you serious?

    This is getting pretty ridiculous.

    Obama supporters allegedly sound like freepers.

    Obama is no a George W. Bush clone.  Or a Clarence Thomas Clone.  

    You all are hilarious.  

    Parent

    ohh i'm talking about (none / 0) (#16)
    by Jgarza on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:26:44 PM EST
    white men won't vote for a woman meme because they voted for Barack.

    Parent
    Pride not prejudice Jgarza. (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by Teresa on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:24:19 PM EST
    I was just stating what they said. It doesn't bother me or surprise me.

    Parent
    Will you Obama supporters ENJOY (none / 0) (#27)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:29:04 PM EST
    your big win instead of looking for fights at every turn?

    Parent
    Be fair... (none / 0) (#48)
    by ROK on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:38:27 PM EST
    Obama fans are very guarded on this site and for good cause. Every win is somehow diminished and an excuse for the loss is offered.

    It was a good win for Obama, but he still has an uphill battle.

    Parent

    I call them as I see them (none / 0) (#81)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:50:59 PM EST
    If that seems like diminishing, then so be it.

    Parent
    electability? (none / 0) (#94)
    by A DC Wonk on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:58:06 PM EST
    You wrote:
    Russert says Obama will tout this as a sign of his electability in November, that he can win Republicans and Independents. I take it as another sign he's a compromiser and not a fighter for a progressive agenda.

    Question: are they mutually exclusive?  I notice that you did not say that this doesn't point to his electability.

    And, frankly, electability means a lot to me.  Four more years of a GOP Prez will continue to exacerbate permanent damage being done to the US (budget, war, soc security, supreme court picks, etc etc.)

    I'll take someone who's a bit less than my ideal for an assured victory any day.

    So, again: while it says to you that he's not a fighter (and that's debatable), does it not also mean that he can capture what might be the crucial so-called independent vote?

    Parent

    I did not write that (none / 0) (#104)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:03:06 PM EST
    Today (none / 0) (#169)
    by Bob In Pacifica on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:31:56 PM EST
    Clinton missed the fight.

    Parent
    Electability Is a Fool's Game (none / 0) (#208)
    by BDB on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:46:31 PM EST
    Neither Clinton nor Obama nor McCain is unelectable, they are all within the mainstream of American political discourse.  Of the three, McCain is probably furthest outside of it, but this goes unremarked by the MSM and so it doesn't matter.

    Electability is created by talking heads to get you to care what they think and to avoid talking about policy.  There's no there there.

    More importantly, Democrats suck at predicting electability because electability requires you to predict what will happen in November 2008 after a long general election campaign.  I don't even know if Obama or Clinton will win Texas in a couple weeks, much less what either will look like by November 2008.  There are too many things that can happen in a campaign and in the world.

    Remember the last candidate nominated for his "electability" was John Kerry.  Now, in retrospect, it was easy to see why he'd be a bad candidate.  Can't put a sentence together without immediately trying to rewrite it in the next breath.  A 20 year voting record in the Senate to pick through.  Instead, all we heard from the media was that Democrats were soft on terror and we needed a war hero.  

    Now, maybe Kerry was the most electable and Dean or Clark would've been worse.  We don't know and will never know.

    What I do know is the very thing the media convinced so many Dems made Kerry electable - his Vietnam war hero status - contributed to his loss.  Nobody foresaw that the GOP would smear him on that or that he'd do such a crappy job responding to it.

    I believe either Clinton or Obama will become the next president of the U.S.   But I also believe either have the capacity to lose to John McCain if things go wrong in the campaign.  If that happens, I can easily hear Democrats say

    "I can't believe we nominated a black guy with only two years of Senate experience, who had never faced a serious GOP opponent,  who used squishy rhetoric about change that let the GOP define him, and who depended on winning independents from John McCain.  What were we thinking?"

    And I can hear

    "I can't believe we ran a woman in the middle of a war and one who went in with high negatives and united the Republican base and who the mainstream media hates.  What were we thinking?"

    And then, of course, we'll all say in unison, "this time I'm voting for someone who is electable, that's the most important thing!"

    Parent

    Excellent analysis (none / 0) (#82)
    by doordiedem0crat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:51:24 PM EST
    Review past blog posts for reference.

    Obama will need a large margin victory in the expectations game. Very important.


    Parent

    before I bow to O (none / 0) (#211)
    by thereyougo on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:57:11 PM EST
    I'm going to have to see him take the
    big states. Ohio Texas Penna.

    Its almost as if this guy, who I'm unimpressed with is talking it up, with JFK speechwriters to make him sound like he's a throwback to Camelot of all things, crazy isn't it? I mean please. Reminds me of the GWB hype . All the catchy phrases, the empty promises. I'm not convinced about him,but give him the benefit, since he's the underdog.

    White men voting for Obama means that this group sees AfroAms successes in sports (baseball, basketball,golf,tennis,), entertainment ( all the wrap stars) and they think the  presidency is a natural progression of that appeal. Which is  a  good sign that the US has come a long way in race relations, and I'm happy to see it.                    
    But if he gets the nom. Karl Rove is going to wail on him with everything he's got.Open up the pearly gates because as bad as McCain is they don't want to pull out the troops in Iraq. Not after spending trillions of borrowed money. And race, religion, guns and Jesus, with a little machine malfunction will be called on once again to decide it for the Rs.

    I hope I'm wrong.


    Parent

    Obama supporters (none / 0) (#172)
    by auntmo on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:32:45 PM EST
    Wow,  BTD,  I  was  beginning  to  think you  hadn't  noticed  how  eagerly  they start  fights.  

    My  apologies.

    Parent

    Wha? I thought the MCM said talking about (none / 0) (#78)
    by jawbone on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:49:46 PM EST
    Blacks voting for Obama and someone talking about it meant the speaker was being "racist" or "racial." You know, like that Bill Clinton racist guy?

    (Sarcasm alert)

    Damn, guess being an MCMer (member of the Mainstream Corporate Media) is just like being a Rethug: IOKIYAMCMer.

    Parent

    I got around 61% to 38-39%. (none / 0) (#2)
    by Geekesque on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:20:11 PM EST
    Maryland will be even worse.

    The delegate counts will be interesting.  

    The VA loss is probably his most impressive performance of them all--a primary in a decent-sized purple state.

    No way for Clinton to spin this one.

    Geek, when you get 90% of 29% as a (3.00 / 2) (#7)
    by Teresa on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:22:12 PM EST
    beginning, you'd have to do well. And white men don't want to vote for HC obviously.

    Parent
    If you are a Clinton supporter, (none / 0) (#10)
    by independent voter on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:24:16 PM EST
    you better hope it is not true. (that white men don't want to vote for HC obviously)

    Parent
    In total (none / 0) (#15)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:26:03 PM EST
    more women vote.

    Parent
    in most dem primaries (none / 0) (#22)
    by Jgarza on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:28:11 PM EST
    but that is not the case in a general, if white men really won't vote for her, she can't win.

    Parent
    True in general elections too (none / 0) (#38)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:34:28 PM EST
    Here's the 2004 exit poll for you:

    2004 exit poll link

    Parent

    No, more women, (none / 0) (#134)
    by echinopsia on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:16:29 PM EST
    as in more than half of the electorate, and they vote in higher percentages than men.

    Women voters in the U.S.

    IOW, if we got together behind a candidate every time, we'd win every time. Scary, huh?


    Parent

    Yes, black people and men discriminate, but (none / 0) (#12)
    by Geekesque on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:24:30 PM EST
    white women vote on the issues.

    Lame spin.

    Parent

    Like I said, it is pride not prejudice on (none / 0) (#18)
    by Teresa on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:27:07 PM EST
    AA's and women (I hope). Plus white men voted for Bush over Kerry so you know they'll vote McCain over Clinton.

    Parent
    But we (none / 0) (#24)
    by BlueLakeMichigan on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:28:36 PM EST
    Gotta try to get a large chunk of that vote. I think either candidate can make it happen, but somehow it has to happen.

    Parent
    Do you have ANY proof that white men (none / 0) (#26)
    by Geekesque on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:29:03 PM EST
    voted for Obama due to gender-related reasons moreso than white women voted for Clinton out of gender and race-related reasons?

    Parent
    I actually do not like the tone (none / 0) (#29)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:30:14 PM EST
    of this discussion.

    Both of you calm down or I close this comments thread.

    Parent

    No, Geek. I was just saying what they said (none / 0) (#52)
    by Teresa on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:39:34 PM EST
    on TV. I think a lot of people of all races love Obama including all of my family in SC. I didn't mean to make anyone angry. I just thought it was an unusual remark on TV is all. I will just leave rather than upset you guys anymore.

    Parent
    Be gracious (none / 0) (#20)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:28:09 PM EST
    I am sure Teresa did not say that.

    Parent
    Of course I didn't. I was just telling you what (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by Teresa on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:32:21 PM EST
    they were discussing on TV. They also discussed Gov. Rendell's statement and said what he said is true but he shouldn't have said it.

    I don't blame AA voters for voting for a special candidate with a great chance of winning anymore than I do women for voting for a pretty awesome woman.

    Parent

    Well, the suggestion that (none / 0) (#30)
    by Geekesque on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:30:22 PM EST
    white men voted for Obama because they're sexist is really insulting.

    It's like saying "white women voted for Clinton because they don't like voting for black people."

    Parent

    Well (none / 0) (#46)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:38:04 PM EST
    take it easy. Surely SOME men are sexists.

    Parent
    Sure they are. (none / 0) (#58)
    by Geekesque on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:42:15 PM EST
    But, bad spin should be debunked.

    Parent
    Bad spin (none / 0) (#192)
    by auntmo on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:38:31 PM EST
    "Bad  spin  should  be  debunked."

    Yes ,  Geek,  on BOTH  sides.

    We're  all eager  to see  you be  consistent  in  applying  that  rule  fairly.  

    Teresa, on  the other  hand, is  usually pretty  fair.  

    Parent

    Wow... (none / 0) (#207)
    by mindfulmission on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:45:30 PM EST
    ... if you really think that bad spin should debunked on both sides, why do YOU never debunk bad Clinton spin?

    Parent
    But (none / 0) (#17)
    by BlueLakeMichigan on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:26:48 PM EST
    white women do. Older people do. Working class people do. Creative class individuals increasingly don't. I mean, what's the point when as Democrats we'll need ALL these groups together in a coalition if we want to win in November?

    Parent
    California? (none / 0) (#142)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:20:40 PM EST
    While Clinton didn't get 90% of 29%, she did get 66% of 30% in California (from Latinos), so really I don't know how much California should count (assuming you discount VA, if not then there both good victories).

    Parent
    Is this a herd thing? (none / 0) (#174)
    by Bob In Pacifica on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:33:48 PM EST
    Maybe a majority of white men in Virginia just prefer Obama to Clinton.

    Parent
    Teresa (none / 0) (#180)
    by auntmo on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:34:49 PM EST
    Down here in Texas  (except  for  Austin),   those  white  men   who  won't vote  for  Hillary  will  go  McCain instead of  Obama  in  the  general.  

    Fact of life.

    Parent

    fact of life... (none / 0) (#188)
    by mindfulmission on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:37:55 PM EST
    ... Texas won't matter in November.  

    McCain will win.  Regardless of who the Dem candidate is.

    Parent

    Texas won't matter (none / 0) (#196)
    by auntmo on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:40:19 PM EST
    Well,  all right  then.  

    We  won't  count  any of  the  delegates  Obama  wins  in  Texas.    

    Parent

    What? (none / 0) (#206)
    by mindfulmission on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:44:25 PM EST
    Where did I suggest that.  

    I never said Texas didn't matter in the primaries.  I said Texas wouldn't matter in November.  

    Two very different things.

    Parent

    What do you think the break down is... (none / 0) (#190)
    by jor on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:38:16 PM EST
    ... for geriatric white women? 80-20? Unfortunately exit polls don't have this specific break down, although it would be highly telling. Although, all 3  demographics factors favor clinton, so it doesnt seem to be so outrageous to think it might be something like 80-20. Identity politics goes both ways in this race.

    Parent
    The CNN exit poll seems wrong to me (none / 0) (#19)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:27:20 PM EST
    I would think Obama got a bigger share of the male vote and a much smaller share of the women vote.

    Something seems wrong. But 62% seems right to me.

    Now for the delegate split . . .

    Parent

    65-34 is a pretty big share of the male vote. (none / 0) (#31)
    by Geekesque on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:31:20 PM EST
    I wouldn't have guessed an Obama blowout in VA two weeks ago, let alone a month ago.

    Parent
    Funny (none / 0) (#44)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:37:10 PM EST
    I have predicted it for quite a while. 23 is about right to me. I predicted 60-40.

    Obama ran a bit better with white men that I thought.

    Parent

    60-40 seemed right as of late. (none / 0) (#61)
    by Geekesque on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:43:43 PM EST
    But, Obama was behind 49-25 there in October, which was the last time it was polled before Super Tuesday.

    Parent
    Ancient history (none / 0) (#79)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:49:51 PM EST
    Two-thirds? (none / 0) (#47)
    by BlueLakeMichigan on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:38:22 PM EST
    Wow. What percentage of the results are in?

    Parent
    How many precincts have reported? (none / 0) (#4)
    by Florida Resident on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:21:20 PM EST


    For what it's worth (none / 0) (#5)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:21:27 PM EST
    You can watch the vote come in by Congressional District here.

    CNN VA exit polls (none / 0) (#21)
    by Coldblue on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:28:11 PM EST
    are showing Huckabee leading McCain in the veterans demographic. Wow.

    now that is (none / 0) (#25)
    by Jgarza on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:28:58 PM EST
    grand, nice tid bit of data you found there lol.

    Parent
    for the first time ever (none / 0) (#28)
    by NJDem on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:29:15 PM EST
    I actually turned on Fox, and with less than 1% in it went up to 51/48 for BO--obviously this wasn't going to last, and the gap widened to about 13, but I still don't get the criteria for calling them.

    Something seems fishy about this VA race.  60/40 for BO on the economy? And a large majority of women?  Either it's really bad news for HRC or something's up--notice how McCain is now losing too?

    Not really (none / 0) (#32)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:31:25 PM EST
    He carried 90% of the A-A vote, 30% and 48% of the white vote.

    That is to be expected.

    Parent

    Wait a second (none / 0) (#37)
    by Kitt on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:34:02 PM EST
    I thought I heard on MSNBC that in Virginia one didn't have to register party and you could vote in both primaries, Rep / Dem.

    Parent
    That's right (none / 0) (#42)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:35:51 PM EST
    Open primary.

    Parent
    BTD, is there any truth to the rumor (none / 0) (#143)
    by echinopsia on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:20:49 PM EST
    in your opinion, that a lot of the crossovers are voting for the Dem they want to vote against in the general?

    I.e., the one they think will be easier to beat?

    Parent

    Who knows? (none / 0) (#158)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:27:24 PM EST
    Look, this is a good night for Obama.

    But this gets decided March 4th.

    Parent

    Unless it gets decided on April 22nd (none / 0) (#175)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:34:00 PM EST
    Well (none / 0) (#185)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:37:02 PM EST
    if Clinton win Texas and Ohio, then it gets decided on april 22.

    Parent
    A fair number of women also fall into the black (none / 0) (#41)
    by andrewwm on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:35:39 PM EST
    group. So he's winning all the black females. Of white females he's probably taking a significantly smaller percentage.

    Parent
    42%oif white women (none / 0) (#62)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:43:49 PM EST
    with white women probably 2/3 of the segment and 90% of A-A women as 1/3 of the vote - thus I get 53-54% of the total women's vote.

    Parent
    Actually (none / 0) (#66)
    by Fultron on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:45:11 PM EST
    45%

    Parent
    Oops (none / 0) (#71)
    by Fultron on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:47:13 PM EST
    Sorry, my "Actually" part was referring to the first post, not BTD's stating 42%.

    Parent
    Obama wins (none / 0) (#33)
    by Jgarza on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:31:56 PM EST
    Catholics in VA according to Tim Russert.

    Not accordint to CNN exit polling. (none / 0) (#36)
    by BrandingIron on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:32:52 PM EST
    Is that a significant demo in VA? (none / 0) (#40)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:35:22 PM EST
    I would not think so.

    Parent
    17% of Democrats who voted (none / 0) (#45)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:37:57 PM EST
    according to CNN.

    Parent
    Not that significant then (5.00 / 1) (#53)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:39:40 PM EST
    Not even sure that saying "Catholic" predicts anything anymore anyway.

    Parent
    Do you guys think (none / 0) (#60)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:43:00 PM EST
    all Catholics are white?

    Parent
    Heck of a point (none / 0) (#76)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:49:07 PM EST
    how so? (none / 0) (#155)
    by mindfulmission on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:25:55 PM EST
    how does the race of catholics have anything to do with this specific thread?

    the push to make everything into racial/gender identity politics is getting quite frustrating...

    Parent

    Because it relates to Obama's (none / 0) (#184)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:36:03 PM EST
    support among A-As.

    Sorry if you think the demo that is important for A-A Catholics is Catholics, then you believe in fantasies.

    Besides, the Cathloic demo is basically meaningless.

    Parent

    fantasy? (none / 0) (#200)
    by mindfulmission on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:42:34 PM EST
    Sorry BTD... but if you think that I said that I said the Catholic demo was important to anyone, than you believe in fantasies.  

    I simply said that the race of Catholics was not very relevant to the conversation.  

    Further... the % of Catholics are African American is very small.  Back in 2000 it was only 3%, so I would be surprised if a significant portion of the Catholic vote in VA was from African Americans.

    Parent

    Can someone tell me (none / 0) (#34)
    by BrandingIron on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:32:11 PM EST

    why projection at 1% of the vote in does anyone good?  Particularly on CNN where the vote spread between McCain and Huck is even larger than the vote spread between Clinton and Obama but they're saying it's "too close to call" w/McCain/Huck.

    Exit polls (none / 0) (#49)
    by Fultron on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:38:50 PM EST
    showing BO taking 90% of the black vote (30%), and the rest splitting 50/50. As others have pointed out there, those numbers predict at least 60-40 for Obama, outside of a reasonable margin of error on ~1000 polled. I haven't looked at the exit polls on the Rep side, but if they come out within 3 points, it's probably too close to call now.

    The 1% of precincts that have reported are probably demographically different and/or small compared to the rest of the state.

    Parent

    Indeed... (none / 0) (#56)
    by Fultron on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:41:17 PM EST
    they show about 46/45 Huckabee vs. McCain.

    Parent
    What about Washington State? (none / 0) (#189)
    by Bob In Pacifica on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:38:13 PM EST
    Did the Republicans ever get around to counting the last 13% of the votes there?

    Parent
    AF (none / 0) (#51)
    by AF on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:39:20 PM EST
    I take it as another sign he's a compromiser and not a fighter for a progressive agenda.

    How do you interpret the fact that Obama wins Democrats 59-40?

    Well (none / 0) (#54)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:40:40 PM EST
    Nearly 50% of the Dems are A-A in this election and they went for Obama 90-10.

    Parent
    Okay, but (none / 0) (#55)
    by AF on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:41:12 PM EST
    What is the evidence the white Democrats were voting on issues on not race?

    Parent
    lol (none / 0) (#57)
    by andreww on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:41:48 PM EST
    so really there is nothing Obama could do to impress you huh BTD?  

    Parent
    Incidentally (none / 0) (#63)
    by AF on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:44:20 PM EST
    A-As appear to be 37% of Dems.  But you are correct, white Dems went for Clinton 58-41.  

    Parent
    That number seems shaky to me (none / 0) (#72)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:47:34 PM EST
    Should be much higher than that.

    Parent
    36% actually (none / 0) (#84)
    by AF on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:52:11 PM EST
    Vote by Party and Race
                         Clinton Obama              
    White Democrats (40%) 58% 41%              
    White Independents (16%) 35% 64%              
    Black Democrats (24%) 12% 88%              
    Black Independents (5%) 14% 86%              
    Latino Democrats (3%) N/A N/A              
    Latino Independents (1%) N/A N/A              
    All Republicans (7%) 25% 71%              
    All Other Party (3%

    A bit of arithmetic shows 36% of Democrats are black.


    Parent

    I am not buyng that exit poll (none / 0) (#101)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:01:38 PM EST
    Which Exit Poll Is That (none / 0) (#160)
    by BDB on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:28:49 PM EST
    Because those numbers differ from the ones I saw on CNN.  Unless the weighting has begun.

    The weighting is the hardest part.

    Parent

    I am making sense of the number (none / 0) (#68)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:46:31 PM EST
    Obama's strength among A-As is hardly a signal that he is a Dem Fighter.

    Let me be clear. I judge these things objectively.

    You have your big win in VA. If you want an irratonal celebration, I suggest to you Daily Kos is having a big party right now.

    I am providing analysis, not cheers.

    Parent

    I'm not gloating (none / 0) (#89)
    by AF on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:54:31 PM EST
    I was responding to your analysis of the exit poll data, which you said showed Obama is "a compromiser and not a fighter for a progressive agenda."  That analysis is valid only if you assume blacks voted on race but whites voted on issues.

    Parent
    I did not say you were (none / 0) (#98)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:01:07 PM EST
    I was responding to Andrew.

    Silly to gloat over me anyway, I am not a Hillary supporter.

    Parent

    Really? (none / 0) (#109)
    by AF on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:04:32 PM EST
    Who do you support?

    Parent
    Holding my nose (none / 0) (#131)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:13:39 PM EST
    Obama.

    Parent
    Wow (none / 0) (#136)
    by AF on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:16:56 PM EST
    Did you just switch?

    Parent
    Sigh (none / 0) (#141)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:19:59 PM EST
    I know you refuse to read the archives, but I wish you would stop making assumptions if you refuse to do so.

    Parent
    Fair enough (none / 0) (#150)
    by AF on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:24:46 PM EST
    from tepid (none / 0) (#144)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:21:50 PM EST
    to holding nose. I want a graphic.

    Parent
    Objectively, you are a Hillary supporter. (none / 0) (#114)
    by Geekesque on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:05:48 PM EST
    Your actions and analysis/spin objectively assist her candidacy at the expense of Obama.

    For instance, you are spinning this showing against Obama in every way possible.

    Parent

    you need to calm down (none / 0) (#132)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:13:58 PM EST
    I am saying nothing that I do not believe.

    Spinning assumes an agenda.

    Frankly, I am not a big fan of either candidate.

    You are walking close to the line right now.

    you want cheering. you know where to go.

     

    Parent

    You know, when someone says he's (none / 0) (#162)
    by echinopsia on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:29:15 PM EST
    for Obama, I take him at his word. Just because there someone supports Obama does not mean he has to act like he's rabid for Obama.

    The fairest people I have seen are the ones who prefer on over the other only slightly. They are capable of honest criticism and they are very rare.

    It's very helpful for those of us who aren't interested in nothing but rah-rah spin for our candidate. That's why TL is so much better than blatantly pro-Obama or pro-Clinton blogs.

    Parent

    I do too (none / 0) (#194)
    by AF on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:39:21 PM EST
    I was not incredulous, just surprised.  BTD's recent posts have struck me as consistently pro-Hillary.  Now my curiosity is piqued.  I am going to run to the archives and read his anti-Hillary posts!

    Parent
    echinopsia (none / 0) (#210)
    by auntmo on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:49:43 PM EST
    Agree  completely.   BTD  is  pretty objective  and   rational.   Geek  wants  a party,  go to  TPM  or  Kos.    

    And you're  right...no one  minds  a  rational  Obama  supporter;   the  bashers  are something else.

    Parent

    Reaganesque? (none / 0) (#147)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:22:45 PM EST
    Would you characterize Reagan as a centrist? Just asking because he drew similar support from Dems and Indies as Barak draws from the Gop and indies.

    Parent
    I wrote a post on t he subject (none / 0) (#154)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:25:55 PM EST
    I wish Obama WAS Reaganesque. He is not.

    Parent
    Ran as a Partisan (none / 0) (#157)
    by BDB on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:27:11 PM EST
    I would not call Reagan a centrist, but he ran as a very partisan Republican.  Obama is not running as a partisan.  Which is why I think he attracts "independents" and also why I wonder if it will last after six months of GOP ads calling him the "most liberal Senator in the Senate."

    Parent
    Reagan ran conservative (none / 0) (#187)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:37:53 PM EST
    Reagan ran conservative, but he also maangaed to convince Independents and a significant minority of Dems that they were conservative as well. While I would admit he needs to a better job of it, Obama seems to be attempting to convince a majority of independents that they are part of a new progressive majority. (the "most Liberal Senator" thing does bug me I'll admit especially since its total crap, the numbers are heavily cooked, though If it is true then that would seem to belie the argument that Obama is a centrist).

    Parent
    Latino vote? (none / 0) (#59)
    by s5 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:42:43 PM EST
    A post on another site (I think Daily Kos) mentioned that Obama won Latino voters in Virginia, but I was unable to find that on the CNN exit polls. Anyone have a cite for this?

    from mydd.com (none / 0) (#91)
    by Addison on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:56:34 PM EST
    not sure where this is from originally, but mydd is posting this:

    One more thing to add from the exit polling, Obama won Latino voters in Virginia by a 55 percent to 45 percent margin. This isn't Texas, but it's not a bad omen for Obama in the Lone Star State, either.


    Parent
    I can't find it either (none / 0) (#120)
    by Shawn on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:09:42 PM EST
    You have to be cautious with early exit data anyway. I remember last week several commentators said Obama had "run even" with Clinton among Hispanics in Arizona, but the final exit number was 55-41. Yet I still see people posting that "Clinton and Obama ran even with AZ Latinos."

    Parent
    The Latino vote in Virginia (none / 0) (#130)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:12:52 PM EST
    can't be that substantial.

    Hard to imagine this is a meaningful subsample.

    Parent

    Exactly (none / 0) (#137)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:17:09 PM EST
    In a sample of 1000, they might have polled 30 latinos, if we go by SUSA's screen from last week.

    Parent
    5% (none / 0) (#139)
    by AF on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:19:13 PM EST
    According to the exit polls.

    Parent
    Ok, 50 (none / 0) (#146)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:22:41 PM EST
    Still a massive MOE.

    Parent
    Right (none / 0) (#151)
    by BDB on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:25:21 PM EST
    Too few to mean anything.  I suspect the same will be true for Asians.

    And, I know I'm beating a dead horse at this point, but D.C. area latin@s are very different from those out west.  Very few Mexican Americans in the D.C. area.

    Parent

    No question (none / 0) (#153)
    by AF on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:25:48 PM EST
    To Obama supporters (none / 0) (#64)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:44:51 PM EST
    Obama won. Congratulations. Now enjoy the win. What do you want us to say? It was brilliant and unexpected? Ok, it was brilliant and unexpected. Everyone voted on issues and obviously, Obama is the true Progressive. Congratulations.

    Not everyone voted on issues (none / 0) (#73)
    by AF on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:48:15 PM EST
    But is naive and somewhat insulting to assume blacks voted on identity and whites didn't.  

    Parent
    TIme for an upbeat song--about the Dream Ticket (none / 0) (#65)
    by jawbone on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:45:07 PM EST
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQFtRxubRyA

    "Take Our Country Back" -- made me smile.

    Awesome.... (none / 0) (#80)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:50:34 PM EST
    Now that was good.

    Parent
    If you don't get the women votes you will lose the (none / 0) (#70)
    by athyrio on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:47:00 PM EST
    general election...Obama needs to figure out how to get the female vote....Which candidate was it that lose the female vote in the past, I forget? was it Teddy Kennedy?

    Hillary as running mate (none / 0) (#74)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:48:18 PM EST
    This is obvious now.

    Parent
    I Hope Not (5.00 / 2) (#85)
    by BDB on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:53:05 PM EST
    If Obama loses, he and his people will blame her and she'll be out of the running in 2012.  So no African American president, no female president.

    Whereas if Obama were on the VP ticket, Clinton would get the blame for the loss (as the top of the ticket should) and he'd still be viable in 2012.

    And speaking for me only, whatever problems I have with Obama are not going to be solved by putting Clinton on the ticket.  They're going to be solved by listening to John McCain call me "friend" for six interminable months.  Well that, and a little repair work from the good Illinois Senator.  

    Parent

    I agree (5.00 / 1) (#100)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:01:37 PM EST
    In addition, a certain feminist (me) would see it as yet another situation when the lesser qualified male got the good job, while the greater qualified female took the secondary role.  And I wonder if I'd feel alone in this.

    No, I don't think this would satisfy women.  I think she'd look ridiculously over-experienced next to him and she'd do way better in debates. She would look 10 feet tall in comparison. It would be silly.

    In addition, why would it be beneficial for Hillary to take VP?  She'll be 70 in 2016.  I'd like to see her do something else, maybe become a citizen of a foreign country that welcomes females in leadership roles and run for prez  there? People overseas overlook marital stupidity and still love the Clintons.


    Parent

    after the awful things Obama has said about (none / 0) (#138)
    by athyrio on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:18:59 PM EST
    the Clintons, I wouldnt agree to be his VP...he has burned that bridge himself....

    Parent
    You're Right (none / 0) (#140)
    by BDB on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:19:41 PM EST
    Clinton as VP is worse.

    It's like an argument I read by an Obama supporter, don't remember who, arguing that Obama/Clinton was the better united ticket because Obama is good at inspiring vision while Clinton is good at, you know, making the government work.  And it really struck me wrong, but I wasn't sure why.  But you're right, that argument comes off as, let the more experience woman train the young popular guy.  Now, I'm not sure that's what anyone means, but the optics makes the idea of an Obama/Clinton ticket worse for me than an Obama/White Guy ticket.

    Parent

    Female VP (none / 0) (#156)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:26:21 PM EST
    Sebelius or Mccaskill (sp on both) might work if you think he needs a female running mate, otherwise I'd seriously think about Tim Kaine, or possibly Ted Strickland (I like Webb a lot but, I think we need him as a Senator, and it'd be a tough seat to defend-- anyone know if VA is Special election or Gov. Appoinment to fill out the term)?

    Parent
    Women (none / 0) (#179)
    by echinopsia on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:34:45 PM EST
    are not interchangeable. You aren't going to mollify  Clinton supporters by adding any generic woman as a VP for Obama. He has fences to mend himself, he can't hand that off by choosing a female running mate.

    Parent
    Good Point (none / 0) (#197)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:40:27 PM EST
    See, this could very well be the case, but if so wouldn't you agree its a two way street, if Clinton pulls it out she has some serious work to do to repair the racial divisions that have arisen.

    Parent
    I think you'd have to show me (none / 0) (#212)
    by echinopsia on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:57:33 PM EST
    How she has caused a racial division - other than running against a black man.

    The Clintons have along history - both of them - of being supported by AAs, their appeal is not in question. They've done nothing IMO to change that, so nothing to repair. Just because the media likes the Clinton = racist trope does not mean blacks buy it. I don't think they're voting for Obama because they think Hillary's a racist.

    Obama OTOH has caused a serious divide when it comes to women. He has turned a LOT of them off. He's had every opportunity to fix that - he won't. He takes women's votes - and the rest of the Dem base for granted.

    We don't like being taken for granted.

    Parent

    You would not be alone (none / 0) (#182)
    by Democratic Cat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:35:35 PM EST
    I can't speak for others, but I would also see it as a situation where the younger, less qualified man walks in and gets the job.  Been there, it doesn't feel good.

    How would you feel, though, if he won and took an even less qualified woman such as Gov. Sebelius or Gov. Napolitano. That would just offend me.

    Still, if he wins, I'm pulling the Dem lever in November, no matter how much I dislike him.  I trudged to the polls today in the freezing rain and I voted for Sen. Clinton; I am still hoping I get to do so again -- for President.

    Parent

    Women (none / 0) (#90)
    by doordiedem0crat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:56:31 PM EST
    will not defect to elect McCain simply because Hillary is not on the ticket.

    Parent
    Dems can NOT (5.00 / 0) (#135)
    by PlayInPeoria on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:16:48 PM EST
    afford to simply take the "women's vote" as a given.

    There is going to have to be a UNITY in the Dem party.

    We've seen tonight how that is working out... not very good.

    Some of the Sen Obama's camp had have an opportunity to UNITE. But instead they behaved terribly. BTD had to call them on it.

    Remember that which ever camp wins this.... it will up to them to bring about the Unity. The will have to reach out to the other side.

    Parent

    Agree (none / 0) (#159)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:27:52 PM EST
    And Vice Versa of course, Hillary can't asssume she'd win the AA vote (or at least at the turnout needed to win).

    Parent
    True (none / 0) (#168)
    by BDB on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:30:56 PM EST
    But she's at least made moves to address this even though it probably isn't going to help her in primaries.

    Obama hasn't done a whole lot and it could cost him the nomination.  If he doesn't improve his numbers with non-AA women, he's going to have a very steep hill in those big states.

    Parent

    What can obama do.... (none / 0) (#201)
    by jor on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:43:00 PM EST
    .... to get women's support?

    Support the right to choose? Check
    Get the support of Oprah? Check
    Hold major rallies with star women? Check
    Get endorsements from leading female democratic politicians?   Check.

    What do you want him to do? You tell me.

    Parent

    are you that sure? (none / 0) (#93)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:58:04 PM EST
    Why lose 5% you do not need to? (none / 0) (#96)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:00:00 PM EST
    And vice versa of course.

    Parent
    I Agree As Far As It Goes (none / 0) (#106)
    by BDB on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:03:50 PM EST
    I don't think they'll abandon him simply because Hillary isn't on the ticket.

    But polls have shown Obama has a problem keeping the democratic base together against.  That's something he's going to have to address against McCain.

    And speaking as a woman and only for me, I'll say that my impression is that he has not only benefitted from the misogyny in the mainstream media and been silent about it, on occasion he's encouraged it.  So don't underestimate the hard feelings that's been caused to a critical block of Democratic voters.  And unlike Clinton with African Americans, Obama hasn't done anything to try to repair them.

    Now, you're right, I'm not voting for McCain.  

    But I might be tempted to tell a pollster that I am if that is what it takes to get the good Senator's attention.  ;-)

    Parent

    If he wins I will vote for him. (5.00 / 0) (#117)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:07:15 PM EST
    But I will not devote time or money. I will work on Congressional wins for the Democratic party. I will hand off my to do list to the inspired. But be prepared for a 4 year do nothing term. So get the congress elected.

    Parent
    He's not worried about the base (5.00 / 0) (#203)
    by Democratic Cat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:43:28 PM EST
    He's said as much.  He thinks he'll get them in any case.  He wants to get the independents and Republicans.

    As a member of the base, I'm not too happy about this. It does not portend well for the advancement of policies I support.

    Parent

    Boucher's district is interesting (none / 0) (#75)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:48:25 PM EST
    The only one where Hillary is cleaning up with 70% of the vote. A race issue, I believe.

    Interesting on the delegate split (none / 0) (#95)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:59:25 PM EST
    4-2 for delegate split.

    Parent
    Is that Roanoke? (none / 0) (#149)
    by BDB on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:23:18 PM EST
    Because Obama basically pulled out of there, according to NotLarrySabato.  He had a rally scheduled and cancelled it.


    Parent
    A few bright spots for HRC (none / 0) (#77)
    by BDB on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:49:41 PM EST
    in otherwise pretty dismal exit polls.  

    She won whites overall by a few points and white women (which fueled her win among whites) by ten points.

    And keeping with trends in other states, won folks who decided on election day.

    Not going to help her tonight, but this could help her in her must wins of Texas and Ohio.

    Also, as anyone who has eaten Mexican food in the D.C. area knows, the latin@ vote there tends to be dominated by Central and South Americans, although Mexican Americans are increasing.  Whereas the western states are almost all Mexican American.   Combine the different backgrounds with the low latin@ percentage and I don't think that means very much with regard to Texas.

    Still, a very nice win for Obama.

    I posted this over in mydd comments as well

    Anyone who has ever eaten (5.00 / 1) (#83)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:51:27 PM EST
    mexican food in the DC area knows not to eat Mexican food in the DC area.

    Parent
    No Kidding (5.00 / 1) (#88)
    by BDB on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:54:29 PM EST
    I never realized I liked Mexican food until I moved to Los Angeles.  Because even the "good" Mexican food in D.C. is terrible.  

    Parent
    winning white women... (none / 0) (#176)
    by jor on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:34:10 PM EST
    ... by 10 points is not a good sign. She was winning them by 30 points in some other contests.

    Parent
    A true coalition (none / 0) (#86)
    by doordiedem0crat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:53:42 PM EST
    Obama is making headway in every demographic. This is a plus heading into the next primaries and the GE.

    MSNBC (none / 0) (#92)
    by Jgarza on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:57:16 PM EST
    says Dem turn out 2:1 over repubs!

    I think (none / 0) (#105)
    by doordiedem0crat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:03:20 PM EST
    the line goes that it means he's a Compromiser.

    BOOOO!!!

    It could be both things (none / 0) (#107)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:03:56 PM EST
    in fact, I imagine it is.

    To be precise (none / 0) (#116)
    by AF on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:07:13 PM EST
    It could mean he's perceived as a compromiser.    

    Parent
    Well (none / 0) (#121)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:10:09 PM EST
    one person's compromiser is another person's unifier.

    My views on Obama's political style are a matter of record at this site.

    Parent

    But the issue here (none / 0) (#126)
    by AF on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:11:26 PM EST
    is what the exit polls tell us.  They reflect perception, not necessarily reality.

    Parent
    Perception becomes reality in Politics (none / 0) (#161)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:29:06 PM EST
    Be happy you're here (none / 0) (#110)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:04:46 PM EST
    If you were a Hillary supporter saying the same kind of thing on KOS, you'd be torn to shreads.

    What are you talking about? (none / 0) (#113)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:05:06 PM EST
    Calm down. Enjoy your win what do you want us to say: write it and we will repeat it. We will repeat whatever you say to make you happy.

    The pattern from the (none / 0) (#118)
    by Geekesque on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:08:49 PM EST
    Clinton campaign and pro-Clinton blogs has been to spin away every Obama win.

    And, when you post anti-Obama/pro-Clinton spin like this:

    I take it as another sign he's a compromiser and not a fighter for a progressive agenda.

    you're going to get pushback.

    Hasn't that been the pattern with both campaigns? (5.00 / 1) (#148)
    by Shawn on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:23:07 PM EST
    From the Obama folks, we've heard:

    After NH - Hillary cried, "the Bradley factor" and Diebold
    After NV - Bill "intimidated" casino workers by campaigning at blackjack tables, plus about 800 diaries on Kos alleging irregularities
    After Super Tuesday - People in California, New Jersey and Massachusetts had never even heard of Obama until Kennedy endorsed him, so considering that he did very, very well  

    Parent

    That's her view (none / 0) (#127)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:11:34 PM EST
    Call that spin if you like.

    I call it expressing a viewpoint.

    It is not my viewpoint IN THIS INSTANCE.

    Parent

    I wasn't going to post again but I just want to (none / 0) (#119)
    by Teresa on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:08:58 PM EST
    tell you one more time. That is not what I said. You took what I said a TV analyst said and are trying to twist it into something bad about me. This is how you act on DKos and we don't act that way here. I have been reading here and posting here for 2 and 1/2 years and I have never had anyone act like this toward me. Just quit please.

    this is NOT a Hillary site it is a site that (none / 0) (#122)
    by athyrio on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:10:11 PM EST
    promotes fair and equal reporting which is why I am here...CNN has 58% of White Democrats voting for Clinton and I dont know what that means....

    Can we get rid of early calls? (none / 0) (#123)
    by dwightkschrute on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:10:13 PM EST
    Or are they a bell that can't be unrung? Is it just because we the viewers are too impatient? Are the networks to blame or are they just knowingly feeding our short attention span, reality-tv drama loving taste?

    They had a report on NPR last night that stunned me. In CA, as of this Monday 2/11, perhaps as many as 2 million of the 9.1 million votes cast hadn't been counted. An independent election expert said the results of 7 delegates could potentially switch (4 currently Clinton could go Obama, 3 currently Obama could go Clinton). And CA's not even a state that can swing, unlike the messiness in New Mexico and Missouri. Who knows how bad it is elsewhere.

    Two things really need to change. Polling preparation, procedures, and result speed and accuracy need to be improved asap. And we the people need to have some patience, let the process work, and wait for real results.

    It's a good sign (none / 0) (#124)
    by BDB on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:10:23 PM EST
    if he can keep them.  The most recent polls show he does no better than Clinton against McCain among independents.

    But forgive me for thinking that a candidate asking to be my party's nominee should not spend the entire nominating process sucking up to people who aren't even in the party and may not vote Democratic in November.  Or am I the only one who remembers the "Democrat for a day" campaigns.

    And, you know, I thought this was a really good win for Obama tonight.  I don't think it means anything with regard to future contests, but if he didn't win most of these February contests, he'd be done.  

    I don't t;hink this is a Hillary site. (none / 0) (#125)
    by katiebird on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:10:38 PM EST
    It's supposed to be a polite site.

    This is a BLOW OUT! (none / 0) (#128)
    by maritza on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:11:42 PM EST
    I am totally BLOWN away.  This is a butt kickin' any way you frame it.

    Huck-mentum! (none / 0) (#129)
    by BDB on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:12:35 PM EST
    So you cheeseheads (said lovingly, of course) does McCain's recent spate of embarrassing losses to the Huckster mean more Republicans stay home to try to keep their nominee from being serially embarrassed?

    McCain v Huckabee (none / 0) (#133)
    by Coldblue on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:15:45 PM EST
    is the most interesting story tonight.

    Parent
    Yep (none / 0) (#145)
    by BDB on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:22:02 PM EST
    If I'd known McCain-Huckabee would be this much fun, I'd have wished for Romney to drop out ages ago.

    Parent
    Interesting "big state" numbers (none / 0) (#152)
    by dwightkschrute on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:25:42 PM EST
    The Democratic Primary has 11 states that award 100 or more delegates -  CA 441, NY 281, TX 228, PA 188, IL 185, OH 161, NC 134 (huh?), NJ 127, MA 121, GA 103, and VA 101.(MD just misses with 99, WA too at 97)

    7 of those 11 are now in the books, with Clinton taking  4 and Obama taking 3.

    Not making an argument or trying for a statement, just thought it reflected just how amazingly tight this race has been.

    NC (none / 0) (#166)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:30:34 PM EST
    NC shouldn't be a suprise, its larger than NJ (admittedly by only 150k or so people).

    Parent
    AA and Woman vote (none / 0) (#163)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:29:26 PM EST
    The allegation to the Democratic party is and rightly so that both the woman and AA vote is taken for granted, a given. Wooed at elections and neglected during terms.

    Audio of Obama in Madison (none / 0) (#167)
    by Ben Masel on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:30:43 PM EST
    Lee Rayburn moderating, interviewing from the event in the meantime, http://themic921.com/main.html

    Va. Primary (none / 0) (#171)
    by ruthinor on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:32:25 PM EST
    How do you know that independents and repubs voted for Obama beacuse they are really for him?  Do you think Wm Kristol and peggy Noonan, who are currently salivating over him, are actually going to vote for him?? PLEASE...

    Nobody knows nuthin (none / 0) (#173)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:32:58 PM EST
    Except for the people who know everything (none / 0) (#178)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:34:44 PM EST
    check out the demographics (none / 0) (#191)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:38:17 PM EST
    of the counties in Virginia Hillary won.

    just read on another post ... (none / 0) (#193)
    by athyrio on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:39:15 PM EST
    NAACP tells Howard Dean to seat delegates in Florida and Mich....looking for a good link now...

    heard it on msnbc (none / 0) (#198)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:41:10 PM EST
    they interviewed Kwesi Mfume who didn't know about it, said he hadn't been with NAACP for a while. Then interviewed current NAACP person who said it's not support for Hillary, just for the proposition that every vote should count.

    Parent
    yeah here is a link (none / 0) (#205)
    by athyrio on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:44:09 PM EST
    Comments at 200, closing here (none / 0) (#202)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:43:12 PM EST
    Please continue discussion here.