Update: MSNBC, 9:01pm: Too early to call but Obama has lead in exit polls.

Bump and Update: Polls about to close. CNN is going to announce what they know and then talk about Huckabee. What does that tell you? If the media makes you crazy tonight, here's a new thread to vent about it.

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Polls close in 45 minutes in Wisconsin. MSNBC results here, CNN results here. Predictions? Thoughts? More below.

Hawaii caucuses are underway. I'm not spending time on them because there's not much mystery. Obama has focused on his "favorite son" ties there and his sister, a teacher there, has been campaigning for him. It's pretty clear he'll take Hawaii.

Results are expected later tonight and I'll update this post with them. If you've got something to say about Hawaii, here's the place.

For what it's worth, via My DD: The Gallup Daily Tracking poll has a Hillary rebound. It's now Hillary 45%, Obama 46% with Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters.

Clinton was seven percentage points behind Obama in the Feb. 15-17 average. In Monday night's interviewing, Clinton's percentage of the vote of national voters was higher than Obama's, but there has been fluidity in the nightly tracking numbers over the past several days as Democrats nationally process the intense, often heated, nature of the campaign. Monday's news coverage of the Democratic campaign was replete with a focus on the Clinton campaign's charges that Obama had plagiarized material from Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and other negative attacks on Obama by the Clinton campaign. It is unclear which, if any, of these factors could be responsible for changes in the candidates' standing.

By Big Tent Democrat

CNN reports that the turnout broke down as follows:

White - 88%
A-A - 8%
Latino - 4%

Male - 43%
Female - 57%

This is a good demo breakdown for Clinton. But the early exits reports are rumored to have Obama WINNING women 51-49! If that holds, that is the big story of the night. It would be a shocking result and a big win for Obama.

Time will Tell.

Via Politico:
Here are the You Tube videos:

Deval Patrick 6/3/06

"I am not asking anybody to take a chance on me. I'm asking you to take a chance on your own aspirations."

Barack Obama 11/2/07

I'm not just asking you to take a chance on me. I'm also asking you to take a chance on your own aspirations."

Yesterday I didn't think this was such a big deal. Today I do. How can we believe in the genuineness of his message of hope, optimism and change when he cribbed it from another politician?

By Big Tent Democrat

So I am watching Tweety to get a read on how the early exit polls are going (if Tweety is very happy, the exit polls provide good news for Obama), not that unweighted early exit polls are that helpful. But I got instead yet another of example of how stupid the Media can be. (BTW, the early exit polls are rumored to again favor Obama.)

But now on to the stupidity. The networks decided to ask a question about trade. And it turns out that most Dem voters think trade is bad. So the conclusion is "trade big issue tonight!" Ask a question about an issue then conclude it was a big issue! How stupid can you get?

Hey, ask them about the pledge of allegiance. I bet that can be the "big issue" too. Unbelievably dumb.

By Big Tent Democrat

I am asked why the big contested states should matter so much to me? I think it is pretty obvious but let me try it this way:

By Big Tent Democrat

A new Survey USA poll:

Two Weeks to Must-Win Ohio, Clinton 9 Points Atop Obama: In a Democratic Primary for President of the United States in Ohio today, 2/16/08, two weeks till the votes are counted, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama, 52% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHIO-TV Dayton. But her lead has narrowed. Just one week ago, Clinton held a 17 point lead at 56% to 39%.

This is more good news for the Democratic Party. Like Texas, this means the nomination can be won by Obama by winning a big contested state, leaving no doubt who "the people" have chosen. If Obama can win neither, he can still win Pennsylvania in April and claim "the people's" mantle. If he wins none, well, we have to decide this somehow. My preference remains for the popular vote winner. Internals of the poll on the flip.

Howard Wolfson, on a conference call with reporters today, said Hillary Clinton has raised $15 million in the 15 days -- all since SuperTuesday.

Mark Penn said Wisconsin "has always been difficult" for them. On Texas,

Since promising victory in Texas, the Clinton campaign has acknowledged that the way Democrats allocate delegates in Texas poses a challenge. One-third of the delegates comes from a caucus which begins as soon as the primary polls close on March 4th. The other two-thirds of delegates are awarded by state senate district. Predominantly African-American state senate districts in Texas have more delegates than the state's Hispanic districts because African-Americans have turned out in higher numbers in the state's last two general elections.

The campaign also flatly denied earlier reports about an unnamed campaign official who said Hillary would go after Obama's pledged delegates.

Barack Obama's speech last night referenced Martin Luther King, Jr. and J.F.K and was about hope and change.

Michelle Obama, at Milwaukee's Pabst Theater, weighed in with this:

"Barack understands that what we're lacking in this nation are will and hope," she said. "Our souls are broken."

Beyond corny. I find it somewhat offensive for her to proclaim my soul is broken.

Hillary's speech centered on economic issues and was aimed at middle-class voters. More here.

Oh, and Hillary, we learn today, is a beer-lover. [More...]

By Big Tent Democrat

Chris Bowers has an excellent post analyzing what exactly can be gleaned from pre election polls in this contest. Chris' analysis demonstrates that Obama wildly overperformed polling in caucus states while Clinton overperformed polling in most primary states. I think Chris misses an essential point in discussing polling in primary states. Chris writes:

Obama wildly outperformed the polls in caucus states such as Colorado, Minnesota and Washington, each of which only had one poll that was more than a week old. However, he also outperformed the polls by double digits in primary states like Alabama, Delaware, D.C., Georgia, South Carolina, and Virginia. By contrast, Clinton has never outperformed the polls by more than 10%, although she did do quite well in California, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and New Mexico.

All of these states had outsized African American populations and most were largely uncontested by Clinton. In essence large leads became even larger. But in contested states like California, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Arizona, Clinton outperformed the polling.

These polling issues closely mirror the last test for Obama - win a big contested state. Texas and Ohio (where there is a rumor of a SUSA poll showing Obama within 9) provide the last electoral test for Obama to pass to secure the nomination.

Kudos to both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (and even John McCain) for calling for Cuba to release all political prisoners in the wake of Castro's resignation.

Hillary: (from her statement)

The people of Cuba yearn for the opportunity to get out from under the weight of this authoritarian regime, which has held back 11 million talented and hardworking citizens of the Americas. The new government should take this opportunity to release political prisoners and to take serious steps towards democracy that give their people a real voice in their government.

Obama:

"The prompt release of all prisoners of conscience wrongly jailed for standing up for the basic freedoms too long denied to the Cuban people would mark an important break with the past. It's time for these heroes to be released."

McCain:

"We must press the Cuban regime to release all political prisoners unconditionally, to legalize all political parties, labor unions and free media, and to schedule internationally monitored elections," the Arizona senator said in a statement.