By Big Tent Democrat

Via TPM, it's semi-official, Hillary Clinton has to win Texas and Ohio:

If she wins Texas and Ohio I think she will be the nominee; if you don't then I don't think she can. It's all on you," the former president told the audience at the beginning of his speech.

Of course, Obama and his supporters do not agree with the first part but certainly we all agree with the second part.

Texas and Ohio are the last stand.

By Big Tent Democrat

While I agree with Kagro's point on this ridiculous piece of nonsense from IAM President Tom Buffenbarger:

Channeling Howard Beale from the movie "Network," [ yelled into the microphone, "Give me a break! I've got news for all the latte-drinking, Prius- driving, Birkenstock-wearing, trust fund babies crowding in to hear him speak! This guy won't last a round against the Republican attack machine. He's a poet, not a fighter."

There is quite a bit of irony in the complaint, as the Left blogs have been regurgitating Right Wing talking points about Bill and Hillary Clinton this entire campaign.

Later today.

Teamster President James P. Hoffa plans to meet with Obama in Austin, Texas, before an announcement is made. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of the planned public announcement.

The Teamsters has 1.4 million members. More importantly for Obama,

They also are a potent source of campaign cash and get-out-the-vote workers for Democrats.

By Big Tent Democrat

Matt Stoller is chock full of ideas for negatively branding John McCain:

I've been doing some calling around to political insiders I know, many of whom are doing serious research on the 2008 election, to figure out how to brand McCain. . . . Everyone I've spoken with believes that the holy grail of branding seems to be associating McCain strongly with Bush. . . . A backdoor way to frame McCain as a Bush-like candidate is to portray him as old, part of the politics of the past, and angry. He's quite vulnerable on his temper and age, and women in particular revolt against his treatment of his first wife (whom he left for a younger wealthy woman after she got into an accident). McCain is definitely open to attack on the economy, and voters are quite willing to believe he is going to continue the Bush economic legacy of tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy. So old, angry, addicted to war, and part of the past seems to be the consensus narrative on McCain.

This begs the question - does Barack Obama do negative branding? And if so, can he also work on negatively branding the entire GOP?

Since the networks cut it off, here's the text of Hillary's new speech delivered in Youngstown, Ohio last night.

It seems to me the most prominent issue in the campaigns is now NAFTA and that it will be as important in Ohio as it was in Wisconsin.

Admittedly, it's an issue I know nothing about. But the sense I get from the media is that Obama has gained an edge on the issue by bashing Hillary because Bill Clinton pushed for NAFTA.

Last night, Hillary released a four point specific plan to fix the problems of NAFTA. It's in her speech and reprinted below and my questions are, what is Obama's specific plan, how does it differ from Hillary's and do they really differ on the issue? [More...]

Lots of folks in the comments last night criticized Hillary Clinton because she didn't congratulate Barack Obama on his win in Wisconsin in her speech. Huffington Post reports she called him after the speech to congratulate him. His press secretary confirms this.

And, while her speech contained some criticism Obama, it was nothing compared to that of her introductory speaker, Machinists Union President Tom Buffenbarger. Via Ken Vogel at Politico:

He also compared Obama with "Janus, the two-faced god" of Roman mythology. He called him "silver tongued" and a "thespian" and "the man in love with the microphone."

"He’s not just a trained thespian, he’s a terrific shadow boxer. You know the type. Outside the ring, he pretends he can float like a butterfly and sting like a bee," he said. "But Barack Obama is no Muhammad Ali. He took a walk every time there was a tough vote in the Illinois state Senate. He took a walk more than 130 times. That’s what a shadow boxer does. All the right moves, all the right combinations, all the right footwork, but he never steps into the ring. He walks away from the fight.”

Vogel reports the union crowd loved it.

By Big Tent Democrat

Steve Soto writes:

[Obama] will not be . . . a nominee who can define differences between the parties. Obama seemingly only mentioned “Republicans” in the context of reaching out to them, while letting their leaders off the hook, as if the last seven years of graft, corruption, and circumvention of the Constitution were bipartisan in origin. Obama aimed his attack not against the party which controlled Washington for the better part of this decade and which controlled Congress for the better part of the 1990’s. Rather, he aimed his critique against both parties and Washington as a whole, as if Democrats are equally culpable for the country’s problems.

More...

By Big Tent Democrat

The most undemocratic aspect of the nomination process is the use of caucuses to apportion delegates. They are a double whammy. They disenfranchise many voters who can not attend caucuses AND they dilute the votes of caucus goers by the ridiculous system used to apportion delegates by voting district.

The disenfranchising aspects were put in stark relief last night in Washington state. Most forgot that Washington held its beauty contest mail in primary last night. And it was so overlooked that the fact that with a little over half of the precincts reporting in a meaningless primary, over 500,000 Washingtonians have voted. In the record turnout caucus of February 9, only 200,000 attended. There is likely to be at least 500,000 move votes cast in the Washington primary than in the Washington caucus.

There was a lot of teeth gnashing about voter disenfranchisement from some quarters during the Nevada caucuses. But nary a peep about the most serious disnefranchisement device of this entire system, the caucuses.

Caucuses MUST be eliminated. They are a travesty. They are democracy in it most corrupted form - institutionalized disenfranchisement.

By Big Tent Democrat

Unlike most everyone else, I thought Obama's speech last night was pretty uninspiring and not particularly well delivered. In the end it was too long and boring. But I have heard it all before. While some, like Ezra Klein, think Obama scored a coup by "stepping on Clinton's speech," I saw nothing new in that. The networks have been cutting Clinton off after 10 minutes or so throughout.

What seemed unusual to me, or maybe it was the first time I have sat through the whole thing, was that Obama's 45 minute speech was broadcast uninterrupted. It clearly was less a victory speech than a stump speech. And I wonder if Obama expected that lengthy coverage of it. If the networks thought they were doing him a favor, I think they got it wrong. 15 minutes would have been great. 45 minutes was boring. I would be interested to see what happened on the ratings during the speech.

My two cents.

By Big Tent Democrat

It looks even worse for Hillary Clinton. So what can she do?

Of course the obvious is win. But I think how she wins matters too. But I do not mean win margins. I mean not winning ugly.

It's not fair. The Media, the blogs AND the Right (more on this later) have swooned for Obama. The Obama Rules have been operative throughout. But the Clinton campaign can't change them and any attempt to change them will only make them worse. Either the Media will suspend them now or they will not. Clinton can't do it. The Clinton campaign must remain relentlessly positive and substantive.

More . . .

By Big Tent Democrat

(Speaking for me only)

The final number looks like a double digit win (the spread is currently 11 points and the current delegate split is 13-8, and likely to be around 42-32 at the end) win for Obama. That is bad for Clinton. But the bad news comes from two other results. For the first time in a primary outside of Illinois and African-American dominated states, Hillary Clinton lost Democrats to Barack Obama by 51-48.

She lost her base tonight, even though she narrowly defeated Obama among women voters. If this is a real change, then Clinton will be defeated on March 4 in Texas and Ohio and Obama will secure the nomination fairly, decisively and squarely.

The Last Stand is upon the Clinton campaign. It is the Lone Star state of Texas and in the Buckeye state of Ohio. She must win both. Or it is over.

Update (TL): Comments now closing. Thanks for your thoughts.

Based on exit polls, at 9:22 pm, CNN projects Obama wins Wisconsin.

• CNN Wisconsin results
• MSNBC Wisconsin results
• MSNBC Wisconsin Results by County
• Wisconsin County Map

Hillary is speaking now from Youngstown. She's talking about the loan she made to her campaign. "If we pull together we can do this." She's asking them to go to her website where she has her issues posted. She's not mentioning the page also starts with a contribution request. But, she says, "With your help" we can win.

She talks about why she's better equipped to be commander in chief and that she's stood up to say that women's rights are human rights. She's ready to end the war in Iraq and the era of cowboy diplomacy. One of us will provide health care for every American. It's a right not a privilege and I won't rest until every American is covered. Theme of the speech, "One of Us has a plan."

CNN puts Obama on next to her, he's going to speak at the same time. They are going to cut off Hillary to go to Obama.

Analysis and updates below: