The Ohio debate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama begins momentarily on MSNBC. They will probably stream it if you're not by a tv. Big Tent Democrat and I will be live-blogging.

You can comment same as always in the comment section below. You also can send us live messages through the software. Only comments you post below will appear on the site.

I'll be putting up some polls during it to see how you think the candidates and questioners are doing. Big Tent's posts will say BTD and mine will be TL.

The live blog stays below the fold so that it can be a bit wider than the front page allows. Just click on the "There's More" button or bookmark the permalink to go directly to it.

If comments hit 200, we'll start a new one.

Bumped by BTD.

By Big Tent Democrat

Funny how needing to hype your own debate makes it not so superfluous. After Keith Olbermann expressed a desire to see no more debates, today in the need to hype THEIR OWN DEBATE, NBC is singing a different tune:

In many ways, tonight is Sen. Hillary Clinton’s last stand. The pressure's off Sen. Barack Obama in Cleveland this evening, he just has to keep on keepin’ on.

But if Clinton can’t dramatically convince voter/viewers of her essential point – that Obama is dangerously vague and ill-prepared for a fall campaign, let alone for the presidency – then it is very hard to see how she can stop the Obama Express in March.

Tell us what you think about all this. Jeralyn and I will liveblog tonight starting at 9 EST.

By Big Tent Democrat

Josh Marshall's reader has got to be kidding me:

Penn was never going to catch on to this whole 'change' thing because to Penn 'change' is too wrapped up in the Democratic populism that he has been trying to exterminate in the Democratic Party since the 90s. It is the great irony of this campaign that Penn, champion of the DLC and sworn enemy of populists like Greenberg, Borosage, and Shrum, is now being forced to churn out populist messaging in the dying days of the campaign.

Gammon. David Axelrod the great populist strategist? Obama the great populist candidate? What did Axelrod do right? He realized his CANDIDATE, an incredibly talented one, was the message. Obama is the change. Not any issue Obama is trumpeting. As for the populist MESSAGE? Edwards withdrew from the race before Super Tuesday.

By Big Tent Democrat

I know, I know - Duh. But David Kurtz of TPM seems shocked by the thought, when linking to TPM's Greg Sargent, who correctly writes:

[T]his reporter is generally sympathetic to the notion that the press treats Hillary unfairly on a regular basis. As Horse's Mouth has argued, there really is a different set of rules governing the media when it comes to the Clintons -- what Paul Krugman recently described as "the Clinton Rules."

Greg raises the more interesting question - does the Clinton campaign's pointing out this truth help? My thought is this - it can't hurt.

The Houston Chronicle reports on the increase in Republicans voting in the Democratic primary to ensure Hillary doesn't win. Some examples:

There is scattered evidence across the state that some Republicans may be voting Democratic, at least for a day. In one precinct in the suburban Houston neighborhood of Kingwood, where 82 percent of voters cast ballots for President Bush in 2004, Democrats were outvoting Republicans 4-to-1 last week in early voting.

....Daron Shaw, a political science professor at University of Texas, said surveys he conducted in two state legislative districts in the Dallas-Fort Worth area revealed that almost a quarter of voters with a history of voting in GOP primaries planned on participating in the Democratic primary.

Here's a Texas pollster:

"The argument I've seen is, 'Let's get rid of Clinton once and for all,' " said Ralph Bordie, who conducts the IVR Poll in Texas.

Bordie's latest statewide poll released last week found that 15 percent of Texas Republicans who said they will support the GOP nominee in November plan nonetheless on voting for Obama next week.

I complained about this last week. I'm still complaining. Democrats, not Republicans and Independents, should pick our party's nominee.

Update: Pamela at the Democratic Daily weighs in on this.

By Big Tent Democrat

Update [2008-2-26 16:15:0 by Big Tent Democrat]: Booman has some interesting thoughts on this issue.

Kevin Drum writes what reads to me as a strange defense of Amy Sullivan, and by extension, Barack Obama. The post is long but the basics of Kevin's defense is:

{Sullivan] basically suggests that about 60% of the evangelical community is politically conservative and won't ever vote for a Democrat. But the other 40% will, and those 40% are worth trying to appeal to. And one way to appeal to them is to acknowledge their moral qualms about abortion even if you don't happen to share them yourself. Like this guy:

. . . I don't think people take the issue lightly. A lot of people have arrived in the view that I've arrived at, which is that there is a moral implication to these issues, but that the women involved are in the best position to make that determination. And I don't think they make it lightly.

That's Barack Obama, likely the next Democratic candidate for the presidency. All he's doing is acknowledging the moral dimension of abortion, while remaining solidly in favor of abortion choice, reducing unwanted pregnancies, and encouraging responsible sexual behavior.

I'll tell you what I think is problematic about this approach on the flip.

I have an op-ed today over at Pajamas Media -- Will the Real Ralph Nader Please Stand Up?

What a sad decline from the consumer advocate in the 50’s to the man who can’t say no to his decade-long vanity project — running for president. Ralph Nader has become irrelevant, says Jeralyn Merritt.

Yesterday's Blogometer has a good compilation of liberal bloggers' reactions to Nader's announcement.

By Big Tent Democrat

A new poll shows Texas in a dead heat. But what is really interesting about is that like SUSA, Ras and other polls, the turnout models seems to be determinative. PPP says:

With major disparities along racial lines in Texas, this contest is likely to be decided by what groups turn out the most," said Dean Debnam, President of [PPP].

That seems an understatement. But what is REALLY interesting is that PPP has it tied DESPITE Obama leading 51-44 among white voters. SUSA has Clinton leading among white voters by a whopping 17, but behind by 4. The turnout model appears to be everything in Texas.

Let me start out by saying, as I have before, that I don't think Barack Obama did anything illegal in his dealings with Anton "Tony" Rezko. Obama has labeled his involvement with Rezko and his wife in the purchase of his home "boneheaded." In other words, since Rezko was under federal investigation by a grand jury at the time Obama bought the $1.65 million house, it was bad judgment, nothing more.

Rezko's trial begins next week. It is a trial about the politics of crime and the crime in politics. As I do many such trials, including that of former Ill. Gov. George Ryan, I am going to cover it. I'm not going to walk on eggshells because Barack Obama's name will come up.

It seems the American media, aside from Obama's home town papers, the Chicago Tribune and the Chicago Sun Times, and the New York Post, are mostly lying low on it. Across the pond, as Instapundit notes, it's of interest to the TimesOnLine, which has a three page article on it today.

Also today, the Tribune reports that the Judge has allowed "Public Official A" to be unmasked as Ill. Gov. Rod Blagojevich. And that Obama's name will surface during the trial.

[More...]

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only.

Oliver Willis writes:

In Texas, the vote will be weird. They have a traditional primary in the day, then at night there is a caucus. Now, remember, the Clinton campaign didn't have any problems with caucuses in Iowa. Then before Nevada they whined about them. Then they won Nevada so they were okay with them. Then the lost a boatload of caucus states and one again disliked caucuses.

Is it possible to analyze something without regard to how it will effect a particular candidate? Are pols shameless hypocrites? But of course they are. But bloggers do not have to be.

Is it so difficult to say that this Texas system, like the Washington system, is a travesty and a joke? That caucuses are disenfranchising? Oh, for the record, I said so before, during and after Iowa. Texas is what it is and the Clintons have to play be these rules. But my gawd, is it so hard to acknowledge these rules stink?

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only.

With the polling showing Hillary Clinton with a comfortable lead in Ohio and falling behind in Texas (Clinton and Obama also seem poised to split RI and VT), how important is tonight's debate? I think it is important. The last debate seemed to hold Clinton's position in Ohio, a double digit lead, while she continued to slip badly in Texas.

I am of the view that if Clinton loses Texas (I assume an Ohio victory), she should suspend her campaign. And of course she CAN win in Texas. But let's assume for the sake of argument, she does not. What then? First of all, the decision is entirely Clinton's and she has every right to continue should she choose to press on. But I would recommend dropping out IF she can not pull out Texas because she will likely be significantly behind in the pledged delegate and popular vote counts. Because of this, it seems to me her chances for the nomination become slim to none. She would have lost the important narrative she could argue to super delegates, that Obama has not shown an ability to win contested big states and that a slim lead among pledged delegates and a virtual tie in the popular vote signals a tie. (Yes, I understand Texas will not be a battleground in November.)

NOTE - Comments are now closed.

More . . .

Here's the new SUSA Texas poll released tonight.

In a Democratic Primary in Texas today, 02/25/08, 8 days till votes are counted, Barack Obama moves ever-so-slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton, though at the edge of the margin of sampling error, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KTRK-TV Houston, KTVT-TV Dallas and KRLD-AM radio Dallas. Today, it's Obama 49%, Clinton 45%. Compared to a SurveyUSA tracking poll released one week ago, Obama is up 4 points, Clinton is down 5 points.

It's not all bad news for Hillary:

"Among seniors, Liberals, voters in Central Texas, South Texas and West Texas, Clinton's support is holding. "

..."Of the 25% of respondents who have already voted, it's Clinton 51%, Obama 46%."

Also, the Laredo Times endorsed Hillary today, citing her experience.(pdf)