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Inside The Texas Polling

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 12:29:05 PM EST
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By Big Tent Democrat

A new poll shows Texas in a dead heat. But what is really interesting about is that like SUSA, Ras and other polls, the turnout models seems to be determinative. PPP says:

With major disparities along racial lines in Texas, this contest is likely to be decided by what groups turn out the most," said Dean Debnam, President of [PPP].

That seems an understatement. But what is REALLY interesting is that PPP has it tied DESPITE Obama leading 51-44 among white voters. SUSA has Clinton leading among white voters by a whopping 17, but behind by 4. The turnout model appears to be everything in Texas.

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    Inside The Texas Polling | 32 comments (32 topical)

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    Interesting African American Numbers (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by diplomatic on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 12:33:20 PM EST
    Each is at 48%. Obama has taken the lead among white voters 51-44 and as usual leads
    by a wide margin with black voters, 73-27. Clinton is hanging on due to strong support
    from Hispanic voters, with whom she holds a 68-27 advantage.

    This seems to be fairly newsworthy, if this poll is to be believed....

    27% of the African American vote for Clinton would be an improvement for her.  Quite important and decisive perhaps.

    Furthermore, that 68-27% Hispanic split in her favor is a blowout and contradicts earlier reports/polls that Obama had cut into that lead down to a mere 13 points.

    Looks like if Hillary can keep both of those statistics in that ballpark she might just have enough to push back against the crossover Republicans looking to finish her off.

    I meant to blockquote the first part of my post (none / 0) (#2)
    by diplomatic on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 12:35:01 PM EST
    Each is at 48%. Obama has taken the lead among white voters 51-44 and as usual leads
    by a wide margin with black voters, 73-27. Clinton is hanging on due to strong support
    from Hispanic voters, with whom she holds a 68-27 advantage.

    that's the part that came from the pdf, the rest is my own notes.

    Parent

    PPP has been cruddy this season (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 12:36:27 PM EST
    SUSA remains my go-to poll.  

    They were the only ones predicting (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by magster on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 12:48:23 PM EST
    Obama's blowout in WI. Could have been lucky.

    What's weird in this TX poll is that Obama is winning A-A votes 73-25.  Hasn't Obama been getting well over 80% of the A-A's before in other primaries?  

    Parent

    Turnout models are interesting (none / 0) (#4)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 12:44:33 PM EST
    SUSA has Clinton winning whites by 17 and Latinos by ONLY 13, 52-39.

    That amounts to 75% of the electorate, which Obama loses by about 14 points.

    In the SUSA poll, record A-A turnout carries Obama to victory, an 85-13 win.

    But there is more to it than that. PPP must project 45% Latino turnout, with Clinton  winning it by record numbers. It makes no sense otherwise.  

    Parent

    it will NEVER be 45% turnout (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by diplomatic on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 12:50:22 PM EST
    I just don't believe that.  Hillary should be happy as long as it exceeds 30%

    It looks like her support is holding across the board, at least nationally -- I just saw the Gallup Daily Tracking numbers and she has caught up to Obama.

    46-46
    www.gallup.com/poll/104563/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx

    Nothing major, but certainly doesn't show a collapse for her or a surge for Obama.  Jonathan Alter weeps.

    Parent

    It's interesting ... (none / 0) (#10)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 01:14:32 PM EST
    that the Gallup Poll has them tied, but the USA Today/Gallup has Obama with a 12% lead.

    Both can't be right.

    Parent

    Yea interesting (none / 0) (#12)
    by diplomatic on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 01:23:33 PM EST
    But the poll that will matter even more is the one that comes after the effects of the debate tonight.

    Parent
    GDTP (none / 0) (#23)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 02:18:39 PM EST
    Wasn't she leading at one point last week in the tracking poll, its an odd poll honestly.

    Parent
    I will be interested to see the exit poll (none / 0) (#5)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 12:47:41 PM EST
    when it emerges.

    Parent
    It's not the turnout numbers (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by AF on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 12:48:47 PM EST
    It's the preferences of A-A and Hispanic voters.  For Hispanics, SUSA has it 52-39 Clinton, PPP has it 68-27.  For A-A's, SUSA has 85-13 Obama, PPP has 73-27.  They have about the same predicted turnout.

    Repblicans voting for Obama (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by melious2 on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 01:31:25 PM EST
    According to SUSA's GE match-up, Hillary does better than Obama against MaCain by 2% - 3%. I submit that this means that there are Republicans voting for Obama (against Hillary by at least 3%) but will not vote for him in the GE.

    Parent
    I live in California (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by myiq2xu on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 01:30:21 PM EST
    Most of the ST polls showed Obama virtually tied or ahead, but he lost by 9%.

    Prior to ST there was one poll that accurately predicted the outcome, but all the publicity went to the others.

    I think certain blogs and media outlets were pushing the polls showing Obama doing well because they were trying to create the impression he had momentum.

    They claim it was to fit the "horserace" narrative but they never do the same for Hillary when she's behind.

    The one poll that was right (none / 0) (#25)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 02:26:08 PM EST
    in California was Survey USA.  They are really reliable in most cases.  If they say Hillary's behind, there's a good (albeit not excellent) chance that she's behind....of course the margin of error makes this one almost a tie....

    Parent
    OK, first word out of Republican office here (none / 0) (#9)
    by BarnBabe on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 01:03:39 PM EST
    I am the only Democrat in my office. Can you imagine that? In NE Penna? It is a very large diversified family owned business. Very Republican. Gave $2k to Sherwood and at least were ashamed of him. Today my boss, who runs the company says to his Republican staff, "Wow, have you seen the news shows lately? They are really beating up on Hillary. She does not deserve any of what they are doing. She is a much better person than they cast her." "A better person than Obama and I can not even watch them anymore." Now, they will not vote Democratic in the GE, but it was interesting that they thought more of Hillary than Obama.

    And, as I have written before, at dinner gathering for the girls, 3 Dem ladies said Hillary and it was about experience. I GOP lady says GOP because her husband is a staunch Republican. Big with the signs on the lawn. Loves Bush. Woe de me.

    In Texas, my friends are in a dead heat too voting as one White woman for O and one White woman for Hill. I hope she does good tonight.

    Although anecdotal ... (none / 0) (#13)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 01:28:40 PM EST
    your story matches my feeling of how "average Americans" are reacting to the recent attacks on Hillary.

    I turned on MSNBarack last night, and had to turn it off a minute later because it was just too vicious and over the top.  But not before they claimed Hillary seemed to be suffering from multiple personality disorder.

    I think Americans believe in fairness.  They may sometimes get confused as to what constitutes fairness, but they believe in it.

    But here it isn't even a close run thing.  The media coverage is clearly not fair to Hillary.  And most Americans have got to feel that.

    Parent

    Voting in Dallas (none / 0) (#11)
    by ramasan on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 01:22:33 PM EST
    I just left my regular lunch spot here in Dallas.  The woman who runs it said that the Republican attorney next door to her, along with all his friends, will be voting for Obama - just to beat Hillary.

    What a messed up system.

    I wish there ... (none / 0) (#14)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 01:30:11 PM EST
    was some way to tally how much of this was really going on.

    Parent
    Unless I've had a memory lapse (none / 0) (#17)
    by RalphB on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 01:34:13 PM EST
    the SUSA poll also had 61% of their sample voters coming from north and east Texas.  I don't see how that's possible since it leaves out Austin and Houston, with Houston being the biggest population in the state.

    Of course their definition of north and east may be different from us natives.

    I don't know how Texans divide their state (none / 0) (#18)
    by ineedalife on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 01:41:42 PM EST
    However, a simple look at the map would put Houston in the east and Dallas-Fort Worth in the north. So I wouldn't get too excited about that split.

    Parent
    Here's the map of Texas you need (none / 0) (#22)
    by cymro on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 01:53:55 PM EST
    Jeralyn posted a link to the Lone Star Project yesterday. This map will answer any questions you have about how Texans divide their state.

    Parent
    Thanks n/t (none / 0) (#24)
    by ineedalife on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 02:20:44 PM EST


    Parent
    Strictly speaking (none / 0) (#27)
    by RalphB on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 02:49:51 PM EST
    Houston is an entity unto itself in southeast texas with 26 delegates.  Dallas/Ft Worth has 30 delegates and is in the north.  Apparently, SUSA's definition is not the native one.


    Parent
    San Antonio? (none / 0) (#28)
    by sumac on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 02:58:49 PM EST
    Anyone interested? Definitely not in the north or the east.

    Parent
    I'm interested (none / 0) (#29)
    by RalphB on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 03:13:23 PM EST
    but apparently we're alone here.  I don't know how you get to 61% without including San Antonio, Austin, and the rest of central and south Texas.


    Parent
    If 61% of those they polled (none / 0) (#30)
    by sumac on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 03:19:22 PM EST
    were in the north or the east, then I expect that these numbers are going to change considerably. I guess I read it to mean that the 61% represented those they polled rather than where the total votes were going to come from (sorry for ending on a preposition).

    Parent
    Texas Republicans for Obama -Dems for HRC (none / 0) (#19)
    by Prabhata on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 01:42:59 PM EST
    According to Taegan:

    PPP Poll: Dead Even in Texas

    A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton tied in Texas, 48% to 48%, with just a week to go before the primary.

    snip

    Obama has actually taken the lead among white voters in the state, 51% to 44%."

    Another factor is crossover vote in the Democratic primary. "As in other states, Obama is actually trailing among Democrats (52% to 44%) but doing very well among Republicans (76% to 20%) and independents (51% to 40%) who plan to vote in the Democratic primary because of John McCain's status as the presumptive nominee."

    Voters rating Moral and Family Values as #1 issue (none / 0) (#20)
    by cymro on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 01:47:38 PM EST
    In spite of all the propaganda insisting that "Hillary is Evil," people who really care about such matters have concluded that she's actually not so evil after all.

    Voters rating "Moral and Family Values" as the most important issue were split 50 to 39 in favor of Hillary.

    At very least, this means that Clinton is less evil than Obama! (Do you think that would work as a campaign slogan? I guess not :-)

    Texas Caucus (none / 0) (#26)
    by RalphB on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 02:47:33 PM EST
    If this little piece from the Texas Observer is correct, and they nearly always are, there will be only an estimate for the TX delegate count until June 7.  Prior to then, the numbers could change due to the multi-level system of picking them

    Caucus Process

    True in every caucus state (none / 0) (#32)
    by Cream City on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 04:17:38 PM EST
    See Nevada's problems last weekend, at the next step of several ahead. True in Iowa, too. This is why Obama's delegate count is soft, and the super-delegates know it -- even if the media don't or don't want to admit it.

    Parent
    The polls are all over the place (none / 0) (#31)
    by fuzzyone on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 03:51:50 PM EST
    Kevin Drum had this round up of the recent national polls:

    LATEST POLLS....Since I posted about the latest Gallup tracking poll yesterday, I guess it's worth noting that the latest CBS/New York Times poll provides wildly different results. Gallup's national poll shows Obama and Clinton virtually tied (Obama is ahead 47%-45%), while the NYT poll gives Obama a huge lead, 54%-38%. I don't know if this is related to differing methodologies or what, but maybe the race isn't quite as tied as I thought it was.

    UPDATE: Via Steve Benen, USA Today has Obama ahead 51%-39% while AP/Ipsos has him ahead by only 46%-43%. So it's all over the map. I guess there's no telling what's really going on.

    I assume this must be largely attributable to different turnout models.  The answer seems to be that this is a very unusual year and on one really knows what is going on.  I think the candidates and their supporters would be well advised to ignore the polls.

    The SUSA Poll (none / 0) (#33)
    by Oje on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 05:39:04 PM EST
    Reflects their sample estimate that 51% of primary voter will be under age 45. That group has been consistently Obama, but they have also been consistently no more than 33% of primary voters. SUSA's age demographics are messing with all of their other measures, including the very dubious estimate of +13% difference between Clinton-Obama among Hispanic voters.

    If they weighted age demographics appropriately, it would look more like a 10% lead for Clinton. But, that does not fit the narrative that Obama has "teh momentum."

    Inside The Texas Polling | 32 comments (32 topical)

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