By Big Tent Democrat

I hope Obama's speech worked politically today, for the sake of the Democratic Party. It was certainly a beautiful speech.

Meanwhile, PPP released a PA poll today. It is not surprising that Clinton leads Obama by 40 points among whites. What is surprising is PPP's finding that Clinton gets 27 percent of the African American vote.

Chris Bowers at Open Left has been numbers-crunching:

Obama needs 471.5 of the 875 remaining delegates, or 53.9%, in order to reach the magic number.

Clinton needs even more, 489.5 of 875, or 56.0%. Both scenarios are extremely unlikely.

Those numbers are very close to each other. Put another way, Hillary is only 18 delegates behind Obama in the race for the next 875.

Chris then makes predictions. But they all start with his (probably educated)guess that the credentials committee will refuse to seat MI and FL because it will have more Obama supporters than Hillary supporters on it. But these committee members like superdelegates can change their support at any time, and not all of them have declared, so I'm not prepared to agree with that. That said, here's how Chris sees it playing out:

Via the Washington Post:

Rep. John P. Murtha has announced his endorsement of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, bringing his clout as a 17-term member of the House and a prominent anti-war Democrat to bear with more than a month until the primary here in his home state.

“Sen. Clinton is the candidate that will forge a consensus on health care, education, the economy, and the war in Iraq,” Murtha wrote in a statement about his decision.

As to what convinced him:

“Her experience and careful consideration of these issues convinced me that she is best qualified to lead our nation and to bring credibility back to the White House,” Murtha said. He said he “whole-heartedly” recommends Clinton to all voters in his state.

Via TPM and Oliver Willis, Hillary Clinton was just on CNN and provided this statement about Barack Obama's race speech.

"I did not have a chance to see or to read yet Sen. Obama's speech. But I'm very glad that he gave it. It's an important topic. Issues of race and gender in America have been complicated throughout our history, and they are complicated in this primary campaign.

"There have been detours and pitfalls along the way. But we should remember that this is an historic moment for the Democratic Party, and for our country. We will be nominating the first African-American or woman for the Presidency of the United States, and that is something that all Americans can and should celebrate."

Oliver, a staunch Obama supporter, says "Good on her." If you have more to say on the speech or Hillary's reaction, you can do so here.

Update: A reader writes in that Obama's speech today is similar to one given by Bill Clinton in 1995 commemorating the Million Man March.

In a new CNN poll, it's a statistical dead heat between McCain-Hillary and McCain-Obama.

• Hillary 49, McCain 47
• Obama 47, McCain 46

According to CNN Polling Director Keating Holland:

"Clinton appears to do a little bit better than Obama among older voters, women, and self-identified Democrats against McCain; Obama's numbers may be slightly better among younger voters and those who describe themselves as Republicans and Independents."

Update: Gallup's daily tracking has Hillary ahead of Obama today.

This isn't a compromise, but the possible outcome of a complaint filed with the Rules Committee. Via Marc Ambinder:

Last week, DNC member Jon Ausman filed a petition with the party's rules and bylaws committee pointing out that the charter of the DNC uses the verb "shall" when describing the relationship between superdelegates and the convention, as in -- superdelegates "shall" be seated. The argument, basically, is that the charter supercedes any penalty imposed by the RBC. The counterarguement is that the verb "shall" is later qualified.

The 28 members of the DNC's Rules and Bylaws committee may well decide that the challenge has validity and may well decide to seat the superdelegates from Florida, and then, should there be a similar petition from Michigan, the superdelegates from Michigan.

This has nothing to do with the disenfranchisement of Florida's 1.7 million voters, and I doubt that Florida's superdelegates will make much of a difference in the long run. But....[More...]

The National Archives tomorrow will release more than 11,000 pages of Hillary Clinton's travel schedules from her years as First Lady.

The Archives said in a statement on Tuesday that the schedules are from the staff files of Patti Solis Doyle, Mrs. Clinton’s former campaign manager who was her chief scheduler in the White House.

“Arranged chronologically, these records document in detail the activities of the First Lady, including meetings, trips, speaking engagements and social activities for the eight years of the Clinton Administration,” the statement said.

Of the more than 11,000 pages to be released, 4,746 pages have redactions, mostly relating to “the privacy interests of third parties,” including Social Security numbers, telephone numbers and home addresses, the Archives said.

I'm not sure why her social activities are relevant, but I suspect in total, the documents will substantiate her experience argument.

The Michigan re-vote plan appears still possible, but is meeting resistance in the state legislature which must approve it, according to one legislator who was at a closed-door meeting today.

Barack Obama's campaign still hasn't endorsed it even though they have had a copy since yesterday. Hillary's campaign supports it.

"A re-vote is the only way Michigan can be assured its delegation will be seated, and vote in Denver' at the party's national convention this summer, Clinton campaign aide Harold Ickes said Monday. "If the Obama campaign thwarts a fair election process for the people of Michigan, it will jeopardize the Democratic nominee's ability to carry the state in the general election.''

Two threads on Barack Obama's speech are now full. Here's a third and final one, before we move on to other topics of the day.

Update: Thanks to all for your comments. There are over 600 of them on our three threads. I'm closing this one now as it's over 200.

Here's the text of Barack Obama's speech on Rev. Jeremiah Wright and race.

Our last thread is filled. Here'a a new one for more of your thoughts.

Update: I only caught the last 5 minutes live and will wait until the re-run to write more. I will say I was impressed by his calmness and his tone. I was expecting a sermon, and the portion I heard was not.

CNN's Suzanne Malveaux says there were teleprompter problems for a while.

Update: I just watched the clip of him saying say he would not renounce Rev. Wright, and I thought he did that well. Here's the quotes:

Hillary Clinton today promised Puerto Ricans she would "would vigorously advance plans that would enable Puerto Rico to decide if it wants to remain a commonwealth or become a U.S. state or an independent nation."

Puerto Rico has been a commonwealth since 1952. Its residents are almost equally divided on whether it should change its status:

Puerto Ricans are U.S. citizens but cannot vote for president, and their representation in Congress is restricted to a single nonvoting member. National party conventions provide islanders a rare chance to have a direct say in Washington.

More...

First Barack Obama was for decriminalization of marijuana. Then he was against it. Then he said he was for it, explaining he raised his hand by mistake at a debate.

Now he's clear: he opposes decriminalization of marijuana.

What accounts for this latest switch? His campaign says he didn't understand what decriminalization meant.

A spokesman for Obama’s campaign blamed confusion over the meaning of decriminalization for the inconsistencies, and said that while Obama does not support decriminalization, "we are sending far too many first-time, nonviolent drug users to prison for very long periods of time, and that we should rethink those laws."

More on Obama and his limited progressive crime positions here.