PPP PA Poll: Clinton By 26

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:33:00 PM EST
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By Big Tent Democrat

I hope Obama's speech worked politically today, for the sake of the Democratic Party. It was certainly a beautiful speech.

Meanwhile, PPP released a PA poll today. It is not surprising that Clinton leads Obama by 40 points among whites. What is surprising is PPP's finding that Clinton gets 27 percent of the African American vote.

< Updated Delegate Math: What Each Needs | FL. Poll: One in Four May Abandon Democratic Party >

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PPP PA Poll: Clinton By 26 | 156 comments (156 topical)

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Holy! (5.00 / 2) (#1)
by Kathy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:38:43 PM EST

This is like an early birthday! Thanks so much for posting this. Though, isn't PPP kind of iffy? SUSA has been the most reliable so far (I believe). Sure someone else here knows better than I.

SUSA had Clinton by 19 (5.00 / 2) (#2)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:39:47 PM EST

PRIOR to the Wright issue.

Parent

Will you be giving a more pithy view of (5.00 / 4) (#4)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:41:24 PM EST

Obama's speech? Hope so. We could promise not to comment if you do.

Parent

I believe my comment was (5.00 / 5) (#8)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:43:05 PM EST

tersely cogent.

An abundance of pith you might say.

Parent

O.K. Strike "pithy" and substitute (5.00 / 2) (#10)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:44:16 PM EST

effusively analytical but calm.

Parent

uhm...have you met BTD? (5.00 / 3) (#12)
by Kathy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:45:53 PM EST

effusively analytical but calm.

I think we are all awaiting the Pithy PR Pronouncements, too.

Parent

No, but I'm hoping for (4.50 / 2) (#16)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:47:12 PM EST

some type of Talk Left round up, except I can't really be in the same room with the potheads!

Parent

What's wrong with potheads? (4.00 / 1) (#21)
by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:49:34 PM EST

Must be nice to be all choosey like that, aren't you related to any?

Parent

Job-related. (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:50:40 PM EST

Parent

You're tested? (5.00 / 1) (#36)
by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:58:10 PM EST

My husband is too all the time ;) I've always sensed that you led a kindred boring life.

Parent

Not tested, (none / 0) (#39)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:02:25 PM EST

Boring--didn't I ever tell you about the coyote?

Parent

you're an FBI agent (5.00 / 3) (#44)
by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:06:31 PM EST

I knew it

Parent

Blackwater. Filthy rich. (5.00 / 2) (#80)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:28:58 PM EST

And a really huge SUV.

Parent

: Yeah, pot is a little tame for you ;) (none / 0) (#145)
by Militarytracy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 08:15:53 AM EST

Wussies and their pot

Parent

now in texas some things are more legal (5.00 / 1) (#99)
by hellothere on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:07:20 PM EST

than others!

Parent

No (none / 0) (#13)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:46:09 PM EST

Frankly, what else is there to say?

Parent

well, for one thing, I suspect you (none / 0) (#20)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:48:37 PM EST

have more to say than "beautiful," not a word I would have predicted you would apply to this speech. Calculated, well-delivered, necessary, effective.

Parent

Not mutually exclusive (5.00 / 4) (#22)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:50:13 PM EST

I prefer to see whether it works. It certainly did with the Media. An important Obama constituency.

Parent

see (5.00 / 1) (#32)
by Kathy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:56:16 PM EST

I prefer to see whether it works. It certainly did with the Media. An important Obama constituency.

I think that we're missing something important here (and by "we" I of course mean you) which is that the

media

lost and important constituency here.

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make them think that liberal, Manhattan-dwelling, snotty intellectual media types are right about religion, when it's something that you practice very seriously, and that you can divorce yourself of your preacher of 20 years saying G D America.

Especially not the Reagan dems, who won't even sip that kool-aid, let alone chug it down. It's what Obama's campaign has failed to notice all along: those great unwashed, those duped Ohioans who voted for Clinton, those low-education droolers, are more what America is than not. Count me as one of them, by the way. I don't like people talking down to me-telling me something is true when, in fact, I know that it is not.

But, we'll know in a month or so, won't we? That's an eternity in politics.

Parent

Maybe that is why (5.00 / 1) (#98)
by zyx on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:02:35 PM EST

I am reading and watching the right-leaning media about this. I thought it was just because I am a Clinton supporter. But maybe it is because I have a feeling that they are more attuned to how Americans feel about church/religious matters.

Parent

: This is my rationale for listening to (5.00 / 2) (#115)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:13:42 PM EST

am talk radio when I'm driving. The Speech was not a success there, as Obama is living in the past and should just get over it and move on.

Parent

there is a web site for reagan dems i (none / 0) (#102)
by hellothere on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:08:24 PM EST

noticed.

Parent

Here's another present (none / 0) (#118)
by echinopsia on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:16:35 PM EST

Juan Williams on Obama and Wright

Parent

: But this is before the speech. (none / 0) (#133)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:41:26 PM EST

I couldn't figure out who one of the panelists was on TV this am talking about the speech, but all were talk radio hosts. Turned out one of them was none other than G. Gordon Liddy.

Parent

You called it. East Coast media (none / 0) (#121)
by Cream City on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:17:51 PM EST

are not trusted by many elsewhere in the country, and I suspect especially so on matters of religion -- since we are convinced that they're all pagans, anyway.:-)

This will be another of those reactions to an issue that will just boggle the minds of the East Coast media. We've seen it before, so wait and see. (Or go see the reaction of local media around the country, already -- I have, and it's not pretty.)

Parent

Indeed. Unless someone comes (none / 0) (#26)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:52:03 PM EST

up with three extra-marital liasons of which Michelle Obama hadn't a clue, the man is truly Teflon-coated.

Parent

How about parsing this phrase: (none / 0) (#54)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:13:31 PM EST

for the sake of the Democratic Party

If the speech failed to distract nonAA voters from 20-year relationship between The Rev. Wright and Sen. Obama causing some of those voters to support Sen. Clinton, would this be to the detriment of the Dem. party?

Parent

score (none / 0) (#109)
by DandyTIger on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:10:42 PM EST

one for the ... um, are you an eye or the round hole in a dome (like in the pantheon)?

Parent

A wag at DK once inquired if I was a (none / 0) (#112)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:12:08 PM EST

Roman architect.

Parent

: that's cool, I'm a way cool computer (none / 0) (#122)
by DandyTIger on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:19:01 PM EST

from xerox.

Parent

Holy! (second notice) (none / 0) (#6)
by Kathy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:41:39 PM EST

Parent

My neighbor saw his 9 min speech last night on TV (5.00 / 1) (#138)
by BarnBabe on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 11:24:22 PM EST

The one with the Scranton Irish Women Society. The Scranton Times reported that it was almost like a secret that he was in town. They had Obama and Hillary supporters yelling each other down across from the train station. Obama suporters complained that the St Pat parade was the Hillary parade. And Obama announced that he had recently found out he was Irish. PA will be all Hillary's.

Parent

It probably wasn't the time or place (5.00 / 2) (#140)
by Cream City on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 11:36:43 PM EST

for Obama to mention that he's only 3 percent Irish -- but almost 40% English. :-)

Parent

: And 100% African (none / 0) (#153)
by squeaky on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:05:27 PM EST

Like the rest of us.

Parent

Have you checked on that insurance (none / 0) (#29)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:54:12 PM EST

coverage yet?

Parent

Have you looked at my latest post? (none / 0) (#35)
by Kathy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:58:07 PM EST

What a formatting marooon I am! No insurance for stupidity (else Bush would be pushing for Universal coverage)

Apologies.

Parent

: I was referring to the in-patient rehab (none / 0) (#40)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:03:36 PM EST

program for HRC supporters.

Parent

Obama's sideshow. (5.00 / 7) (#5)
by lentinel on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:41:26 PM EST

Obama changes the subject.
The subject is now race in America.
The subject is no longer Obama's tolerance of idiotic remarks.
We saw this with Donnie McClurkin.
We saw this with Joseph Lieberman, his other mentor.
We saw it when Rock started off his rally at the Apollo calling Clinton, "that white woman" while Obama stood by silently.

His campaign deliberately distorted Bill Clinton's accurate portrayal of Obama's phony reputation as the anti-war candidate. They made it into a racial issue.

Now he shows up as the new Lincoln.

The press loves it.
The New York Times, the liberal rag, swoons.
Chris Matthews is probably feeling it slithering up his leg.

Goo for all.

Obama morphs into Yakov Smirnoff.
What a country.
Only in America.

The press is all Obama all the time.
You wouldn't even know that Clinton is running.

The mainstream media is steamrolling us.
The way we are being railroaded is reminiscent of the feverish selling of the war in Iraq.

Clinton who? (none / 0) (#47)
by Ben Masel on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:10:03 PM EST

You wouldn't know Mike Gravel is running.

Parent

Didn't he just endorse (none / 0) (#50)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:11:20 PM EST

the Green party candidate?

Parent

Only for the Green Primary (none / 0) (#77)
by Ben Masel on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:25:19 PM EST

but he's still running himself as a Democrat

Parent

That's a curious and uncomfortable (5.00 / 1) (#79)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:27:43 PM EST

distinction. I mean, I don't really care. But why would he be making endorsements in another party?

Parent

To diss Nader (5.00 / 2) (#83)
by Ben Masel on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:30:34 PM EST

Parent

That is a very good answer (5.00 / 1) (#87)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:39:07 PM EST

Parent

How does Ben know this stuff? (none / 0) (#97)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:01:52 PM EST

Gravel's e-mail recipient list has to be quite manageable at this point.

Parent

: Spotted it at Reason (5.00 / 1) (#143)
by Ben Masel on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:48:29 AM EST

Several Minutes with Mike Gravel by David Weigel

I asked Gravel about the reports he was going Green and endorsing a Green Party candidate for president. Half of that is true. "I'm still running," he said. "I just endorsed Jesse Johnson to give him a leg up over Cynthia McKinney and Ralph Nader."

Parent

My neighbor, a very active Green (5.00 / 1) (#120)
by jes on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:17:02 PM EST

says the Philly Greens are trying to bolt to Nader. Much infighting. He seems to think with Nader at the top of the ticket the Greens can get 3M votes nationally vs under 1M with McKinney.

The are starting their signature drive soon.

Parent

Amen to that (none / 0) (#147)
by bodhcatha on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 10:25:29 AM EST

It's like he was caught robbing a bank, and when he goes to court, instead of admitting his guilt and showing remorse, he lectures the judge and jury about the uneven distribution of wealth in our society and how we all have a responsibility to fix it blah blah blah...

Parent

: How did I end up here? (none / 0) (#148)
by bodhcatha on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 10:27:29 AM EST

I was agreeing with lentinel upthread.

Parent
: Ah, so much of the Obama narrative (none / 0) (#155)
by Cream City on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 07:48:13 PM EST

repeatedly has reminded me of the movie Meet John Doe -- as does your comment. Good analogy.

Parent

Ok, folks, that means the baseline (5.00 / 1) (#7)
by Joelarama on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:42:42 PM EST

for Clinton is now 26. She has to win by more than 26 or this is an Obama victory.

BTW, the Obama speech did not wash with the family back home. I have not been able to talk to them; this was in an e-mail.

Nooooo (5.00 / 2) (#31)
by waldenpond on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:55:57 PM EST

She must always do 10-15 better than any poll or expectation for it to be a win. Somehow I believe she is required to pull in 101% for it to be a real win but I am biased.

Parent

Your last sentence is actually somewhat (5.00 / 1) (#34)
by Joelarama on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:57:43 PM EST

true. She needs to win the popular vote.

Parent

Is Rev. Al still planning a march (none / 0) (#41)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:04:19 PM EST

by FL to Denver?

Parent

that won't help obama for sure! (5.00 / 1) (#114)
by hellothere on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:13:32 PM EST

rev al is in it for himself. publicity don't you know!

Parent

He was the lone ranger on this morning on (5.00 / 1) (#123)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:19:03 PM EST

a panel I watched about The Speech. The others were teasing him that he would be caught on video laughing at an inopportune moment.

But, I'm thinking the Grandmas thrown off the bus group could arrive in Denver by bus and share some of Rev. Al's spotlight.

Parent

: good post. your grandma comment (none / 0) (#125)
by hellothere on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:26:27 PM EST

gets a big smile!

Parent
: I am ready to go -- after all, (none / 0) (#129)
by Cream City on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:33:55 PM EST

August 26, the first full day of the convention, is annual Women's Equality Day -- anniversary of the 19th Amendment. I always celebrate it. :-)

Parent

No No (5.00 / 2) (#104)
by facta non verba on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:09:15 PM EST

The baseline is more like 12-15 points. The break has been Thursday when all this surfaced. This poll is also an outlier. Most are in the 12-18 point range.

Parent

Obama's speech fell flat with friends here (5.00 / 8) (#18)
by RalphB on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:47:54 PM EST

in TX. Even some people I know who voted for him are no longer "inspired". One asked me today how one speech could possible overcome 20 years of deeds. Good question and it obviously can't unless you were originally unconcerned.

As Paul Burka said in Texas Monthly, "This isn't about white racism. This is about Wright racism".

Nice quote ... (5.00 / 2) (#53)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:13:22 PM EST

and that's what struck me about the speech.

He seemed to be arguing that America is to blame for his crappy choice of friends. This isn't about America's problem, it's about your problem, Senator Obama.

Frankly, I'm more upset about the Wright issue after the speech than I was before it. I found the speech supremely insulting.

Parent

I didn't think the speech was anything great. (5.00 / 2) (#72)
by Angel on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:22:14 PM EST

I felt a little insulted; felt that the insinuation is that someone else is responsible for his behavior. And I really don't think he wants to keep discussing race, regardless of what some of the talking heads say. I bet he just wishes it would all go away, but that isn't going to happen.

Parent

It was preaching to the choir... (5.00 / 3) (#82)
by DudeE on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:30:33 PM EST

...no pun intended. Anyone offended by Wright certainly wasn't jerked back into the fold by Obama's speech.

His sole purpose was in providing some cover for his supporters. They can now claim, he's acknowledged these issues, he's addressed them and if you want to keep bringing them up you're just attacking him.

Parent

Very much in the spirit of GW Bush and (5.00 / 3) (#85)
by MarkL on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:35:17 PM EST

HIS major addresses, which are never intended to start discussions, only end them.

Parent

Is it true (none / 0) (#93)
by americanincanada on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:54:49 PM EST

as I heard tonight that Colin POwell walked out on a Wright sermon once due to anti-american sentiment?

Parent

It is true that you and I read this; (5.00 / 2) (#95)
by MarkL on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:58:48 PM EST

whether that happened? I don't know.
There are fishy rumors floating around tonight.

Parent

Rumor (none / 0) (#101)
by waldenpond on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:08:06 PM EST

Yeah, someone said they saw it on Fox, but I had Fox on and didn't see it. I asked when but got no response so, who knows.

Parent

I would really like to know if Oprah (none / 0) (#103)
by MarkL on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:09:14 PM EST

left Wright's church.

Parent

yes she did (5.00 / 2) (#113)
by DandyTIger on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:13:13 PM EST

she said she was not comfortable with the tone of Wright's sermons. That was some years ago though.

Parent

: Then highlighting that quote will (5.00 / 1) (#116)
by MarkL on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:14:20 PM EST

show where Obama went wrong. He could and should have left the church.

Parent

every single talking head (5.00 / 2) (#107)
by Kathy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:10:12 PM EST

tonight on the news said this is the speech Obama has been wanting to make. Exact same phrase, all of them. It's like they got a memo or something.

This would've carried more weight, of course, if he had made it when he wasn't under fire for Wright.

Parent

: It's not "like they got a memo" ... (5.00 / 2) (#139)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 11:34:27 PM EST

they did get a memo from the Obama campaign, and then did read it.
But one only needs to look at the rest of the news cable covers to know not to take them seriously: Missing co-eds, car chases and crashes, collapsing buildings and celebrity gossip.

Parent

color me not impressed! (5.00 / 1) (#108)
by hellothere on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:10:30 PM EST

this should have been dealt with months ago.

Parent

Another good quote (none / 0) (#149)
by Claw on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 10:28:11 AM EST

"At 11am on Tuesday, a prominant politician spoke to Americans about race as if they were adults."
I agree though, this does kill Rev. Wright's Presidential campaign...oh...wait...

Parent

: More like we are kids (none / 0) (#150)
by bodhcatha on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 11:00:11 AM EST

who are too gullible to realize he's trying to blame all of us for his bad judgement. And seeing the msm reaction, who can blame him for thinking so?

Parent

I've only seen... (5.00 / 1) (#58)
by myed2x on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:15:06 PM EST

...one 10-20 second clip, where is this 20 year history of inflammatory comments you speak of?

I get the feeling you're generalizing here rather than being fair, you're judging more than one person with a sweeping statement based on one clip.

Parent

African-American vote... (5.00 / 3) (#42)
by DudeE on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:04:20 PM EST

...is not really all that surprising. She has long had a very favorable image among black voters and was, in fact, far outpolling Obama prior to 4 or 5 months ago.

Now that some cracks are showing in Obama's veneer, it seems reasonable that many will peel off and support Clinton. His support among African-Americans is far from rock solid.

Obama will get 90% of the Black vote (4.00 / 1) (#49)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:10:30 PM EST

but if he still only wins Philly 54/45, he's got a BIG problem. He needs to seal up Chestnut Hill and Mt Airy (white liberals). His speech today and the ensuing media coverage may have done that.

Parent

i think obama's problems are just (none / 0) (#111)
by hellothere on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:11:26 PM EST

beginning.

Parent

Some polsters also have noted a problem (5.00 / 1) (#127)
by Cream City on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:28:21 PM EST

in the predictions based on usual models from primaries -- predicting a lot more growth in the AA vote for Obama. But he already seems to have gained most of the likely AA voters, so the standard models may be predicting he would get a greater AA vote and thus overall vote than is probable.

Parent

hmm like 110% per the pollsters? (5.00 / 2) (#130)
by hellothere on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:35:26 PM EST

forgive me cream city but pollsters have made a few errors this primary season. it leaves me wondering. since obama has had 90% or so of the aa vote, i'd think it would be hard to get much more. the rest of are too young or maybe not allowed to vote for various reasons.

Parent

We;re saying the same thing (none / 0) (#156)
by Cream City on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 07:49:36 PM EST

and agreeing with the pollsters, if you reread.

But no need to apologize again.

Parent

: thanks, have a nice weeking! (none / 0) (#158)
by hellothere on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 01:41:55 AM EST

Parent

And BTD (5.00 / 5) (#45)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:08:49 PM EST

at the end of the day, I still think it's going to be immensely damaging for Obama that the only big blue state he's been able to win is his own. He can't seem to close the deal in a primary.

I think that means something for a general election: something not good.

Hence (5.00 / 1) (#105)
by Lahdee on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:09:20 PM EST

the super delegates. 50 is nice, but 270 is best for now. PA may provide an substantial boost to Clinton's primary popular vote. For a party out of power the lure of the Clinton electoral strategy may be compelling.

Parent

What's Wisconsin? (none / 0) (#60)
by Ben Masel on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:16:30 PM EST

Parent

Small (5.00 / 1) (#63)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:18:10 PM EST

for these purposes, 20 EVs constitutes a "big state," IMHO.

Parent

So if Clinton's the nominee (none / 0) (#78)
by Ben Masel on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:27:35 PM EST

she won't need our puny electoral total?

Parent

Who said that? (5.00 / 2) (#81)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:29:32 PM EST

I don't begrudge Wisconsin, but it is not a big state. Neither is New Jersey, for example (which I would consider to be right at the threshold).

Parent

Wisconsin is pretty big, just not that (5.00 / 2) (#89)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:40:18 PM EST

many electoral votes.

Parent

: Yeh, Ben, it's not based on acreage (5.00 / 3) (#128)
by Cream City on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:30:42 PM EST

and we don't even make the top third of states by population.

Parent

That would be explosive (5.00 / 1) (#56)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:13:55 PM EST

if true.

: Clinton's farewell address: (none / 0) (#68)
by Teresa on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:20:58 PM EST

Bill Clinton
I haven't read all of Obama's speech.

Parent

Ok, your quote is from Clinton's farewell (5.00 / 2) (#67)
by MarkL on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:20:44 PM EST

address, but NOTHING like that is in Obama's speech today.
I just searched for several of the words and got zilch.
I suggest that the comment and its children be deleted. This is an inflammatory waste of time.

: Yeah, it's not there (5.00 / 1) (#74)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:24:16 PM EST

Why would anyone bother with this?

Parent

I could buy the AA percentages (5.00 / 2) (#94)
by IVR Polls on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:58:45 PM EST

That's pretty similar to what I had in Texas a few weeks out. By the end, it was 85% Obama as his team was very effective at converting unlikely AA voters to likely voters. Democratic primary turnout is usually skewed towards women and seniors, and it is skewed more than average among AA voters. Clinton is competitive with Obama among older AA women. Increased turnout diminishes their share, so the overall numbers become more of a blowout for Obama. I think Clinton could probably be more aggressive in AA GOTV and hold Obama under 80% in PA and NC, though the campaign may choose to focus on her stronger demographics.

: Probably the better strategy is to focus (5.00 / 1) (#132)
by RalphB on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:39:55 PM EST

on her stronger demographics but I sure wish they could try more AA GOTV. If it worked it would be really good PR.

Parent

More on Colin Powell (5.00 / 1) (#126)
by NJDem on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:26:54 PM EST

O.k., now it's making more sense, what Powell "walked out on" was The World Conference Against Racism held in Durban, South Africa, which turned into an Arab-led campaign to delegitmize Israel and brand Zionism as a form of racism. This is the conference where Wright spoke--so indirectly Powell walked out on him:

LINK

LINK

Whooofffta (none / 0) (#3)
by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:41:01 PM EST

Pennsylvania might as well be Transylvania for me, I just don't get the demographics. It's like trying to read tea leaves.

Well some describe (5.00 / 2) (#100)
by facta non verba on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:07:30 PM EST

Pennsylvania as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh on the ends and Alabama in the middle. It is an interesting state, Philly is still the nation's fifth largest city. A large ethnic population makes it a mini-New Jersey. Its mainline suburbs are well-do-to with large pockets of moderate Republicans and centrist Democrats. NE PA is like upstate NY, small decaying cities. Pittsburgh is the American city that has lost the most population since 1950. Western PA is sort of a cross between Ohio and West Virginia. Rank & File Democrat country. Then the middle is full of hunters and rather rabid Republicans, Santorum country.

Obama favorability rating nationally has fallen 11 points in two weeks, 4 points since Friday. He does lose PA by 25 points it will set off a panic in his campaign, they are hoping for a bounce from the speech. I don't think he will get. There is still criticism and more coming once Rezko resurfaces.

Parent

: Obama's expectations (5.00 / 2) (#106)
by waldenpond on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:09:28 PM EST

were to loose the state by just a few points according to his leaked spreadsheet.

Parent
: Yes Pgh is (5.00 / 2) (#124)
by smott on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:24:17 PM EST

Blue at either end and fairly red in the middle.
HRC is going to win most of the state with the exception of Philly. I'm in Pittsburgh and while there is some young college-age crowd here it is overwhelmed by white working class euro-ethnic. HRC wins the state big I think, not less than double-digits.

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margin of error for subgroups (none / 0) (#9)
by desmoinesdem on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:43:21 PM EST

is always higher than the margin of error for the whole poll.

This could be an outlier. Let's see what other polling from PA and elsewhere tells us about whether Clinton has gained among AA voters.

Indeed (5.00 / 1) (#11)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:45:17 PM EST

I do not believe this finding on Clinton support among A-As.

But I also think it understates Clinton's likely White support. I think she tops 70% of the White vote in PA.

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70%? (none / 0) (#15)
by Kathy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:46:35 PM EST

Really? Because of MS and Wright? Or something else?

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In Ohio (5.00 / 1) (#19)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:48:24 PM EST

Clinton won white Democrats 70-27.

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and you still don't think the super d's (none / 0) (#23)
by Kathy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:50:19 PM EST

are gonna look at that and drop a collective brick?

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Nope (5.00 / 1) (#25)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:51:51 PM EST

They needed a will of the people argument.

No revotes precludes that.

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: What if Caucus Delegates start shifting? (none / 0) (#144)
by katiebird on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 06:41:16 AM EST

As they take their next steps? Kansas doesn't have Congressional District conventions until April 12.
Is it possible that The Wright issue could affect that level of the delegate selection process?

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IMO A collective brick will be dropped (5.00 / 1) (#28)
by RalphB on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:53:53 PM EST

by some, the only question is how many. Hopefully it will be enough.

Jeez, I'd love to rerun the TX primary today!

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A revote of the Wisconsin primary (none / 0) (#131)
by Cream City on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:39:31 PM EST

-- the turning point -- would not go well for Obama today. One of the most churchgoing states. . . .

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: My 79-year-old Wisconsin dad (none / 0) (#136)
by zyx on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:53:37 PM EST

voted for Obama.
I don't have the heart to ask him if he has seen the Wright videos and what he thinks about them.

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and the 'for the sake of the Democratic Party' (none / 0) (#14)
by jes on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:46:20 PM EST

in the intro is a hint that your conclusion about the outcome of the race is still final.

More so than ever (5.00 / 1) (#17)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:47:54 PM EST

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J doesn't want to hear that. (none / 0) (#37)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:59:53 PM EST

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I did not write that in a post (none / 0) (#52)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:13:10 PM EST

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: I think you can do it, but she's watching (none / 0) (#59)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:16:11 PM EST

me.

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Somebody once said (none / 0) (#27)
by Coldblue on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:53:21 PM EST

"all political polls suck"

I don't comment much anymore (none / 0) (#30)
by kmblue on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:54:15 PM EST

but I think the Democrats have lost this election.
That depresses me.

Why do you feel the Dems have lost (5.00 / 1) (#38)
by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:00:31 PM EST

election. Geniunely interested in your observations.

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I think Obama will be nominated (5.00 / 4) (#55)
by kmblue on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:13:43 PM EST

I think the rancor over Michigan and Florida, and the inability of the MSM to cover Obama fairly will lead to a loss in the GE.

Understand I've been working in the MSM for 15 years. I believe the MSM, which is largely white male, is handling Obama with kid gloves for fear of being called racist.

I also believe the MSM has NO fear of being sexist.
These two elements combined, along with Michigan and Florida, will lead to defeat for the Democrat party.

It's just my opinion.

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Agree completely (none / 0) (#62)
by otherlisa on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:17:29 PM EST

It's profoundly depressing.

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: Don't lose hope yet (none / 0) (#152)
by Marvin42 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 11:32:41 AM EST

Let's see how the rest of the primaries go, which way the tide turns. If nothing else this is turning out to be a heck of a fight.

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and there is backlash coming for (none / 0) (#117)
by hellothere on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:15:00 PM EST

several different reasons.

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: I agree with you, Kmblue, otherlis (5.00 / 1) (#146)
by MMW on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 08:34:11 AM EST

The media is no longer trusted. The Wright issue, Rezco (especially when Auchi is connected) the narrative from Repub 527s along with Michelle Obama's words will kill his candidacy. The lack of a stance on difficult votes, the I hit the wrong button, the inexperience, the drug use, the masses will feel betrayed by the media. Clinton supporters, by and large will stay home or go with the known quantity.
This is one of those train wrecks.

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That will come down (none / 0) (#33)
by DaveOinSF on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:56:48 PM EST

If you recalculate for Obama's usual 90-10 vote among blacks, it's 54-37.

That said, the poll also UNDERWEIGHTS women. They're only 55% of the sample. In Ohio, for example, they were 59% of the vote. Reweight for 59% women and it's 61-27.

Reweight for BOTH 59% women AND 90-10 Blacks and it's 57-28.

: 57/28 seems like the state of the race (none / 0) (#43)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:06:22 PM EST

right now. And that's in an environment most favorable to Hillary.
I don't see how she gets that kind of landslide at the end of the day. Not unless white voters have made up their mind in a very negative way about Obama. Today's media coverage would seem to preclude that.

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WOW. (none / 0) (#46)
by BrandingIron on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:09:56 PM EST

Those are some CRAZY percentage points! Let's hope (well, for me, since I'm a Clintonite) that that lead holds up by the time everyone gets to vote over there.

I wonder if, overall, his percentage points [in the states where they've already voted] are dropping because of the current stuff going on?

Boy can Obama WRITE!! (none / 0) (#51)
by MarkL on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:12:18 PM EST

I'll need some proof on that one, but since Obama's camp made sure to point out that Obama wrote the speech himself, that would be a really decisive, egregious plagiarism.

Oh man. (none / 0) (#57)
by tigercourse on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:14:29 PM EST

HIs speech (none / 0) (#61)
by waldenpond on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:16:40 PM EST

is on another blog. I'm checking but that just seems too odd. I don't think so. I think that is an error.

It could be true, but is it? (none / 0) (#64)
by Angel on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:18:19 PM EST

: Does not appear to be (5.00 / 2) (#70)
by otherlisa on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:21:59 PM EST

I skimmed the text I have of Obama's speech and found no such passage.

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Anything about the Christians in (none / 0) (#65)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:19:03 PM EST

the lions' den in Obama's speech?

Do You Have A Link For 2000 Address? n/t (none / 0) (#66)
by MO Blue on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:20:26 PM EST

: here (5.00 / 2) (#69)
by MarkL on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:21:27 PM EST

NOT Obama

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I sure can't find corroborating (none / 0) (#71)
by BrandingIron on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:22:07 PM EST

evidence. Where did you find this?

even as a Hillary supporter I would hate to see (none / 0) (#73)
by athyrio on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:24:15 PM EST

this be true...sounds like it isnt thank god...

All I see in Obama's speech is this line? (none / 0) (#75)
by Teresa on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:24:28 PM EST

the more perfect Union of our Founders' dreams

Without links (none / 0) (#76)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:24:45 PM EST

This is an unacceptable comment.

Deleted.

FWIW (none / 0) (#84)
by NJDem on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:33:34 PM EST

Fox (yes, I know...) reported tonight that Colin Powell walked out on a speech Wright was giving at a convention. That gives this story another leg.

I bring it up only b/c this new poll does seem to reflect the aftermath of the Wright controversy and Powell is a man of (near) universal respect. Not to mention, Oprah also left the church, so this puts BO in an awkward position, no?

I think HRC needs to win PA by 15 for the S-D's to get the message. Breaking 20+% with AA's in PA would be huge though, all things considered.

My husband mentioned that Oprah had left (5.00 / 1) (#86)
by Angel on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:37:25 PM EST

the church many years ago. Also said the press was trying to get her to comment on the reason why but she isn't taking their calls. I guess she just doesn't want to say anything that will reflect poorly on her messiah...

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This could be the first step to rehab (5.00 / 1) (#91)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:42:46 PM EST

of Powell's trashed reputation.

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Hmmm, GOP VP? (nt) (none / 0) (#135)
by Cream City on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:45:36 PM EST

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I saw somethig at Huff Post about (none / 0) (#137)
by oculus on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 11:14:46 PM EST

Clarence Thomas, of all people, as possible running mate w/McCain. But after today's gaffe by Mccain in Amman, Jordan, sounds like he'd better keep Lieberman close by at all times.

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William Kristol (none / 0) (#141)
by facta non verba on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:20:38 AM EST

floated the idea of Clarence Thomas as McCain's VP. Unlikely. Kristol is rarely right, in December 2007 he went on record saying that Cheney would be the surprise GOP nominee out of a deadlocked convention and would win the general election. So much for that idea. I didn't hear the gaffe so can't comment there. McCain's VP either needs to shore up the conservative religious side of the GOP base or perhaps pick some one might help McCain win states MO, OH, PA, NJ, and MI. All within his reach.

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Thomas would gather in the religious (5.00 / 1) (#142)
by oculus on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:36:07 AM EST

right. Plus, if he vacated a seat on the Supreme Court, it would be difficult to find an equally bad replacement.

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: Aha, Oculus uncovered my plot (none / 0) (#157)
by Cream City on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 07:53:33 PM EST

to get Thomas off the court. Pleeeeeeease.

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If True, They Will Probably Save (5.00 / 1) (#92)
by MO Blue on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:54:25 PM EST

the Powell interview for the reasons why he walked out on the Wright speech for after Obama gets the nomination.

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Shame (none / 0) (#88)
by waldenpond on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:39:18 PM EST

Several of us expressed our shame over watching earlier, that said.... when was this reported?

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Big sturdy legs. (none / 0) (#90)
by corn on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:41:54 PM EST

Fox has hours of the guy wranting. It's not going away.

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Penn and Obama (none / 0) (#96)
by dem08 on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:01:07 PM EST

It is depressing that in a discussion of Pennsylvania people said Obama's speech was plagiarized from Bill Clinton, which is a lie that spread so quickly from someone named Charles Johnson and comments on the Taylor Marsh site, and that so many said Obama's speech was nothing special.

The speech was brilliant and a high-water mark in our discourse.

Even if Hillary wins Penn by 56 points and then wins the nomination and all 50 states, Obama's speech will still be important.

In a way, I wish Obama would get out of the race, just so people will see that he does have something to say about race that is valuable and unique.

I agree with you halfway. (5.00 / 1) (#110)
by MarkL on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:11:19 PM EST

Obama does have some interesting things to say, but not in areas that give me any confidence he should be President.
A man with his gifts, but lacking experience, should be someplace with a high profile where he can use his oratory to influence policy.
I know! Let's put him in the Senate!

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: lol (none / 0) (#151)
by bodhcatha on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 11:16:24 AM EST

It's been tried, Mark, but they couldn't pin him down.

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Rumor quickly debunked (5.00 / 3) (#119)
by waldenpond on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:16:47 PM EST

several of us stated outright our disbelief and went and checked and responded it was untrue. So we aren't that bad.

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PA smart people (none / 0) (#154)
by lovhillary on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:54:42 PM EST

hillary is the best
not for her "words" but for her "actions"
Obama's judgement of NOT walking out
from that church even though
Oprah did in the 90's.
Does NOT sit well with me.For one the "hate"
for the government for America.the pain for those innocent souls on 9-11.

our hero's to all colors and races
who helped in NYC on that terrible day.
DAM WRIGHT not America.Wright said we deserved it" Obama heard this-WOW & stayed-

Obama who leads his campaign on Judgement couldn't find the door out of that church
couldn't disown Wright.
didn't hear his words.
well did hear those words.

come on, He turned his speech(more words)
about race.I see, so only blacks do for blacks?
gee why was Brad Pitt & Bill Clinton
in New Orleans building up the 9th ward.
where was Wright?
where was Obama?

where was Obama when Travis Smiley ask him
to come to New Orleans to talk about
the new direction of New Orleans-
Obama did NOT go-

Hillary DID!!
I guess " Hillary will never know
what it's like to be called a N*****
or to be a poor black boy" ( words from Wright)
I guess Obama does. he went to Harvard -ha

You do not have to be black to care
and to help.
Hillary HAS proven that
even in a pantsuit or a dress
IT'S TIME for a women to CLEAN up
the "words" & mess" from Men

It is time for a change
actions- judgement-
SOLUTIONS.
It's time for a women to take charge.
& It's time to give another award to Wright
from Obama.IN 20 years ya never walked away

well we walk away from you now Obama
I do NOT want "pretty" words
I want the right judgement.

God Bless our troops
who fight for OUR freedom
yes even Wrights hateful words
even Obama's BAD judgement.

Now that is UNITED not divided.

Hillary stay strong & lead the way.
you go PA- you woke up & smelled the real brew
of coffee the Wright way is -no way Obama!
The real hardworking Hillary.
she's walked the walk
& not just talked the talk.

Not "dam America" Dam Obama"

PPP PA Poll: Clinton By 26 | 156 comments (156 topical)

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