Quinnipiac has a new poll out today (Big Tent Democrat's post on it is here.)

Results:

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a 50 - 41 percent lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among likely Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters and runs better against Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican nominee in Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

By the numbers:

In general election match ups of the three largest and most important swing states in the Electoral College, the survey finds.

• Florida: Clinton 44 percent - McCain 42 percent; McCain beats Obama 46 - 37 percent;
• Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 - 39 percent; Obama gets 43 percent to McCain's 42 percent;
• Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 48 - 40 percent; Obama leads McCain 43 - 39 percent.

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By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

I would immediately renounce Harold Ickes' statement on the popular vote and endorse Tweety's proposals on MI/FL revotes and the popular vote:

Both candidates agree to full revotes in Michigan and Florida and both candidates agree that the winner of the national popular vote will be the nominee of the Democratic Party.

For this nomination to mean anything for either candidate, the nominee must be perceived to have won fair and square. I know Obama supporters scream that Clinton supporters are being outrageous and vice versa, but either candidate will need the supporters of the opponent. Clinton, imo, can not win without a "will of the people" argument, and the pledged delegate count will not be that. It must be the popular vote. More . .

By Big Tent Democrat

So says Marc Ambinder:

The size of the committee will not be reduced even though Florida and Michigan are not participating as delegate-producing bodies, according to a DNC spokesperson. Florida and Michigan WILL be represented on the credentials committee.

Let me say this, that if Obama and the Democratic Party force themselves to exclude Florida and Michigan from the Democratic Convention, as Howard Dean seems prepared to do (though I must add that Kos is absolutely wrong about Dean's position on FL and MI. Dean favored revotes - OBAMA blocked the revotes), kiss Florida and Michigan goodbye for November. Chalk up 44 electoral votes for John McCain right now. There is STILL time to fix this - with party run revotes. Those who argue against this now are arguing against the interests of the Democratic Party in order to favor the interests of Barack Obama. For all the talk of Hillary's selfishness, and all pols are selfish, the biggest, most damaging act of political selfishness remains Barack Obama's blocking of revotes for Florida and Michigan.

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only.

It is one polling outfit, but here is the crux of Hillary Clinton's electability argument:

FLORIDA: Clinton 44 - McCain 42
McCain 46 - Obama 37

OHIO: Clinton 48 - McCain 39
Obama 43 - McCain 42

PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 48 - McCain 40
Obama 43 - McCain 39

68 electoral votes. I believe Michigan will show similar results. 17 more electoral votes. I believe Obama can point to Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon and Virginia in his column of advantage. 55 electoral votes. I stand by my assessment, Obama expands the map, but is the bigger risk in the big contested states. More risk, more reward electorally. I still think the risk is worth the reward. I thought the argument more compelling pre-Wright of course. But I think it survives that.

Maggie Williams, Hillary Clinton's campaign manager, has sent out a memo addressing why she's staying in the race. It's very simple. Politico has a copy.

As of today, the citizens of 42 states, the District of Columbia, Democrats Abroad and 2 territories have had an opportunity to vote – and they have exercised that right in overwhelming numbers. But the citizens in Pennsylvania, Guam, North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Oregon, Kentucky, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota have not yet had the opportunity to exercise that fundamental right. Together, this adds up to nearly 43 million Americans. Are their voices any less important than those of the citizens who have already voted?

....The simple fact is that this election is too close to call. After 46 primaries and caucuses, by virtually every measure, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are neck and neck – separated by roughly 130 of the more than 3,100 delegates committed thus far and less than 1% of the 27 million-plus votes cast, including Florida and Michigan. Less than 1%! With hundreds of delegates still uncommitted, neither candidate has reached the number of delegates required to secure the nomination. And either candidate can reach the required number in the coming weeks and months. This is indisputable.

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Howard Dean on CNN tonight: There are only 2 ways Michigan and Florida delegates will be seated. One is if Hillary and Obama agree on a plan. The other is after the nominee is chosen when she or he will control the credentials committee.

In other words, Florida and Michigan are not getting seated in time to have a say in the nominee.

If I were a voter in Florida or MIchigan, I'd be livid.

The one thing neither Dean nor the DNC can control is whether the superdelegates consider the votes in Florida and Michigan. They can factor the votes into their own calculations of the popular vote. They can factor them into their decision as to which candidate is more electable in November.

Florida and Michigan voters who want their vote counted ought to let the superdelegates from the other 48 states know. Here is a list of uncommitted superdelegates, and here is a list of committed superdelegates. Both should be contacted since superdelegates can decide or change their mind any time before they vote.

Update (TL): Comments now closed.

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

Harold Ickes is supposed to be a pro. He did not demonstrate that in his interview with Greg Sargent:

[Ickes] [c]onfirmed that the Hillary campaign could still try to woo super-dels even if she lost the popular vote, with Michigan and Florida counted.

Just ridiculous. Hillary Clinton is out there arguing in favor of counting the votes in all 50 states and here is Ickes saying that the RESULT of those votes will not matter to the Clinton campaign. This is inexcusable, harmful, stupid and reprehensible. There are other issues in Sargent's interview that others will certainly take issue with, but that statement is, to me, the worst of all. If it is true, I will be the first in line denouncing the Clinton campaign when the time comes.

By Big Tent Democrat

SUSA Indiana Poll:

In a Democratic Primary in Indiana today, 04/01/08, 5 weeks until votes are counted, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 52% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. Obama leads 3:2 among the youngest voters. Clinton leads 2:1 among the oldest voters. Clinton leads by 21 points among whites. Obama leads by 58 points among blacks.

It is encouraging that the racial divide is not as pronounced in Indiana.

It's very funny. Any other April Fools' stuff out there?

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

While Obama fans like John Cole of Balloon Juice (A little reminder for Cole, who seems to forget when he is outraged and "trolled" Talk Left (yes, irony IS dead)) are aghast that Hillary Clinton is fighting for revotes in Michigan and Florida, I wonder what they think of Obama fighting for uncommitted delegates in Michigan? Chris Bowers writes:

Given that Obama already leads by nine delegates even with Michigan and Florida included, the situation could be particularly grim for Clinton on April 19th, when most of the 55 uncommitteed [sic] Michigan delegates are selected. Assuming continued superdelegate gains and that Obama wins the clear majority of the uncommitted Michigan delegates, by May 7th Obama could be ahead by 60-70 delegates even with Michigan and Florida included.

(Emphasis supplied.) Obama win the majority of the uncommitted Michigan delegates? How exactly is he going to do that? Is Obama gonna act like the Michigan delegation will be seated? But but but, what will John Cole say?

More . . .

Survey USA has Hillary ahead by 12 points in PA. She's down 2 points from three weeks ago, Obama is up 5. Where is he making the gains?

[P]articularly in cities like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, and among older voters, men and conservative Democrats.....There is also movement to Obama from conservative and anti-abortion Democrats.

Where is Hillary stronger? On Obama's signature issue, the war in Iraq. And the economy and health care.

Rasmussen also has a PA poll that finds Hillary ahead by 5 points over Obama, and Obama leading by 17 points on Iraq. Very different numbers.

Rasmussen's daily tracking poll has Obama at 46% and Hillary at 45%.

In Kentucky, Survey USA shows Hillary leads Obama 2:1, 58% to 21%.

Speaking in Philadelphia today, Hillary Clinton says she's like Rocky Balboa -- he wouldn't quit and neither will she. From her prepared speech:

One thing you know about me is that when I say I’ll fight for you, I’ll fight for you. I know that there will be hurdles and setbacks between now and November. But I also know that I’m ready. I know what it’s like to stumble. I know what it means to get knocked down. But I’ve never stayed down, and I never will.

....[J]ust as it’s getting time to vote here in Pennsylvania, Senator Obama says he’s getting tired of it. His supporters say they want it to end. Well, could you imagine if Rocky Balboa had gotten half way up those Art Museum steps and said, “Well, I guess that’s about far enough?”

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