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SUSA IN Poll: Clinton By 9

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 03:43:22 PM EST
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By Big Tent Democrat

SUSA Indiana Poll:

In a Democratic Primary in Indiana today, 04/01/08, 5 weeks until votes are counted, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 52% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. Obama leads 3:2 among the youngest voters. Clinton leads 2:1 among the oldest voters. Clinton leads by 21 points among whites. Obama leads by 58 points among blacks.

It is encouraging that the racial divide is not as pronounced in Indiana.

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    SUSA IN Poll: Clinton By 9 | 46 comments (46 topical)

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    I predict (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by americanincanada on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 03:57:24 PM EST
    Clinton by 7% in Indiana and by 18% in PA.

    Heightening expectations (none / 0) (#25)
    by rebrane on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:18:12 PM EST
    She didn't even win by 18 in her home state...

    Parent
    I've heard (none / 0) (#31)
    by Prabhata on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:57:21 PM EST
    When assessing a campaign, week is like a lifetime. On Feb 5 Americans had not heard Obama's spiritual leader, Wright.

    Parent
    Suspicious poll (none / 0) (#45)
    by Traven on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 11:30:19 PM EST
    Sorry but a poll showing less than 60% black support for Obama is highly suspicious when he's been getting 90% of that vote up to now.  I'm no expert, but I doubt that African Americans in Indiana are all that much different from blacks elsewhere.  I think this poll is overstating Hillary's strengths, even though Survery USA has been among the more accurate pollsters this season.  And no way is Hillary going to beat Obama by 18% in Penn.

    Parent
    It isn't < 60% black support for Obama (none / 0) (#46)
    by zyx on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 11:59:19 PM EST
    that polling terminology is a bit confusing, "leading by so many".  58 is the "spread", which is how much Clinton is behind.  The numbers are Obama with 79% of AA support and Clinton with 21%, which sounds about like other polls in other states.

    Parent
    Gosh (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by Steve M on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 03:58:58 PM EST
    I would not think of IN as Clinton territory.  This could be a nice win for her.

    I think (none / 0) (#27)
    by nell on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:24:02 PM EST
    Northwest Indiana, the area closest to Chicago, and Indianapolis will go heavily for Obama but she has a great shot in the rest of the state. These are also the two areas that have the most significant African American population.

    Parent
    hmmmmm (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 03:58:59 PM EST
    it would be nice if the racial divide were not so pronounced, but since a lot of A-A's are absolutely convinced Clinton is a racist now, I think that ship has sailed.

    plus there's Wright.

    Any poll to back up that AAs believe the (none / 0) (#33)
    by Prabhata on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 07:01:02 PM EST
    Clintons are racists? I've not seen one and I certainly not heard such accusations, except from the Obama supporters.  Once has to look at what is happening to those AA who support HRC to see who are demanding that AA support Obama because he is black.

    Parent
    Actually she has a 60% favorability (none / 0) (#37)
    by ineedalife on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 07:39:18 PM EST
    IRC the Wall  Street Journal poll still showed a 60% favorability rating for Hillary amongst AAs. They just like Obama better. If she pulls this out I am sure they will rally behind her.

    As much as I deplore Obama's camp attempts to paint her as a racist, I have to believe the voters are more sophisticated than to truly believe it. I am just disappointed that they haven't punished Obama at all for pulling this crap.

    Parent

    I find that very hard to believe. (none / 0) (#39)
    by kayla on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 07:57:58 PM EST


    Parent
    More of the Pastor Wright effect and I think (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by athyrio on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:00:28 PM EST
    it will get worse before it gets better, due to the 'Bradley effect' or whatever you call it when people don't admit in polls that they won't vote for the other race....I cannot believe that the Democratic party has stirred up these old race wounds....This is serious stuff at least to me...I was in the marches of the civil rights movement and this breaks my heart to see...

    Bradley effect, huh? (none / 0) (#20)
    by Radix on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:40:28 PM EST
    The problem with the "Bradley effect" is that it didn't exist. The vote margins coincided with the polls, from my understanding.

    Parent
    The Bradley effect did exist (none / 0) (#34)
    by SantaMonicaJoe on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 07:02:36 PM EST
    But the difference is, Tom Bradley was a completely innocuous candidate who had a wealth of experience as mayor of L.A. and there was no discussion about race in that campaign.

    Different situation here.

    Parent

    The Bradley Effect (none / 0) (#41)
    by facta non verba on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 08:25:07 PM EST
    does not hold true in the Democratic primaries. The discrepancy between polling data and the actual vote was on the order of ten points turning a 5 point Bradley lead in two governors races in California into two narrow losses to George Deukmejian. In 1982, Bradley actually got more votes on election day but lost when some 100,000 absentee ballots when Deukmejian's way. The 1986 election wasn't as close though again Bradley led in the polls but lost the election. That's the Bradley Effect, telling pollsters you'll vote for the African-American candidate but doing otherwise. It's a general election problem.

    Parent
    And of course Indiana falls on the same day... (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by Exeter on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:01:35 PM EST
    ... as North Carolina. Man, I wish more was made of how much the calendar has tilted the table against Hillary. Early HRC victories in Michigan and Florida would have taken away alot of Obama's momentum going into Super Tuesday and even if Super Tuesday wouldh have happened the same way, he wouldn't have been able to make his pledged delegate argument until much later. Then, those string of 11 of his states right in row really killed HRC and, of course, the media covered it with no balance of HRC's states to come.

    After HRC wins PA, she needs to start using the line that if Dems had the same delegate rules as the GOP, she would be winner after PA, just to put things in perspective.

    Yes (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by BDB on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:04:09 PM EST
    It's almost like with the complete stripping of MI & FL (instead of the 50% contemplated by the rules), was done, in part, by some Obama shills like Donna Brazile.  Good thing folks like that were kept far away from decision-making so that the process will appear fair and legitimate to all.

    Parent
    yeah the only shills that were let go from CNN (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by athyrio on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:09:12 PM EST
    were the spokesmen for Hillary....Donna B is still there altho she is a shill for Obama....

    Parent
    You forget (none / 0) (#44)
    by Traven on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 11:27:43 PM EST
    You forget that the calendar was designed by HRC apparatchik Terry MacAufliffe so she would wrap things up by Feb 5.

    Parent
    I think its all pretty fluid right now. (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by ajain on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:39:43 PM EST
    While I think these polls are good news, I think we have to wait and see.

    These things can swing as the contest goes on and as the narrative changes.

    I think Clinton will take IN and PA, not NC (could keep NC close if Edwards endorses - but who knows).

    "Obama Speech Fails to Assuage (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:07:13 PM EST
    White Indiana Voters" -- see wire article

    Check out Barone's article (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by jen on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:49:47 PM EST
    (Hope this isn't too terribly O/T. He does talk about PA and the other States yet to vote. If there's an Open Thread I could move it too, please let me know.)

    Projection: Clinton Wins Popular Vote, Obama Wins Delegate Count

    USNews

    ...By my count, Clinton has won 14 states with 219 electoral votes (16 states with 263 electoral votes if you include Florida and Michigan) while Obama has won 27 states (I'm counting the District of Columbia as a state, but not the territories) with 202 electoral votes. Eight states with 73 electoral votes have still to vote. In percentage terms, Clinton has won states with 41 percent of the electoral votes (49 percent if you include Florida and Michigan), while Obama has won states with 38 percent of electoral votes. States with 14 percent of the electoral votes have yet to vote. ...

      ...

    It's at least theoretically possible for Clinton to overcome this lead in primary-chosen delegates in the eight remaining primaries. That would give the Clinton campaign another basis for arguing that their candidate is really the choice of the people. ...

       ...

    These two projections, if they come to pass, seem likely to cause maximum pain among the superdelegates. Clinton will be able to claim a lead in popular vote. But only because of Puerto Rico--and because Puerto Rico this month replaced its caucus with a primary. Obama will be able to claim a lead in pledged delegates. But only because he gamed the caucuses better. His lead in caucus-selected delegates is currently 125, as best I can calculate it; that would mean Clinton would have a 35-delegate lead among delegates chosen in primaries. Both sides will be able to make plausible claims to be the people's choice.

    Let me add that my projections don't leave much room for a cascade of superdelegates to Obama. On each day's contests I have Clinton leading Obama both in delegates and popular votes (because North Carolina would be outvoted by Indiana on May 6 and Oregon outvoted by Kentucky on May 20). She would be getting closer to the nomination, not farther away.

    Of course my projections could just be plain wrong. Clinton could win Pennsylvania by an unimpressive margin on April 22 and get clocked in Indiana as well as North Carolina on May 6. Then you might see a cascade of superdelegates toward Obama, and the race might effectively be over. But if all those three things don't happen, then I am sure the contest will go on through June 3. And in that case I think my projections are within the realm of possibility.
    Barone is assuming (none / 0) (#32)
    by MKS on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:59:31 PM EST
    a Hillary win of 20+ in Indiana and Pennsylvania, but is still predicting Obama will have the lead in pledged delegates.

    Parent
    Could work with a higher turnout too (none / 0) (#35)
    by SantaMonicaJoe on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 07:05:12 PM EST
    Most projections I've seen assume a 60% turnout in PA.

    We have been seeing 80% this year.

    She can take the popular with an 80% turnout and a lower percentage win.

    Parent

    The race gap will close, as it always does (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 03:45:23 PM EST
    I expect this race to be decided by a few points. My call today: HIllary by 5.

    Which means that, if she can get extra cash (none / 0) (#2)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 03:46:48 PM EST
    she could potentially upset in OR.

    Parent
    I just realized that doesn't make any sense (none / 0) (#4)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 03:47:25 PM EST
    the race gap will WIDEN, especially with A-As.

    Parent
    Ickes is working on it, per TPM. (none / 0) (#6)
    by oculus on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 03:48:48 PM EST


    Parent
    Was that a sarcastic comment? (none / 0) (#3)
    by ajain on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 03:47:10 PM EST
    Coz I think there is a sharp racial divide.
    Obama winning over 80% of the AA vote and Hillary winning 60% of the white vote. I mean thats pretty big. Its not Mississippi or SC, but still.

    Not sarcastic (none / 0) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 03:48:06 PM EST


    Parent
    NC is key .. if she can manage to upset Obama (none / 0) (#8)
    by TalkRight on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 03:58:10 PM EST
    that would a slam dunk imo.

    Not going to happen (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:01:04 PM EST
    I predict Obama by 10-20 there. If Hillary had some cash, she could keep it close, but she can't even hold her own in PA.

    Parent
    I wonder... (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:04:00 PM EST
    Obama outspent her by quite a large margin in OH, and it didn't help.

    Parent
    Something different about NC and Tx. (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by hairspray on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:10:06 PM EST
    When she needed a win in Ohio and Tx she sent the team to TX that delivered California for her.  Same bunch that won Tx for her have have now been dispatched to NC.  I think she has a miracle worker on her team and he is in NC.  My hunch is if she loses NC it will not be by much.

    Parent
    Perhaps (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:16:00 PM EST
    I think the demographics make it pretty difficult. If she can win by even a couple of points there, I think she'll be the nominee.

    Parent
    Inaccurate (none / 0) (#14)
    by Marvin42 on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:02:39 PM EST
    What makes you say "she can't hold her own?" She seems to be doing pretty well so far. I agree NC is pretty long shot, if she won that something really bad happened to the Obama campaign.

    But no need to spin, Hillary in PA so far is pretty solid.

    Parent

    "Hold her own" (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:04:11 PM EST
     applies to media spending. I was completely accurate and honest.

    Parent
    I apologize (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by Marvin42 on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:40:50 PM EST
    I misread, my bad. You are correct.

    Parent
    The campaigning effect (none / 0) (#26)
    by rebrane on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:21:10 PM EST
    It should be pointed out that this poll was taken at the end of a week in which Bill, Hillary and Chelsea have been doing events in Indiana almost every day. If and when Obama spends a week or two in the state,  those numbers should tighten considerably.

    The poll was also taken at the end of a week (none / 0) (#43)
    by ChrisO on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 09:49:39 PM EST
    in which all of the coverage of Hillary has been about Bosnia. This has been one of her worst weeks in the media.

    Parent
    Survey USA (none / 0) (#29)
    by MKS on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:39:31 PM EST
    totally blew it in Missouri.  Its poll on 2/3 had Hillary winning by 11 points.

    Missouri is a lot like Indiana.

    As is IA w/o Northern Indiana. (none / 0) (#30)
    by oculus on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:44:13 PM EST


    Parent
    Uh, how? (none / 0) (#36)
    by Shawn on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 07:10:26 PM EST
    I'd say it has a lot in common with Ohio, if it resembles any other state politically.

    Parent
    It depends (none / 0) (#40)
    by rebrane on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 08:05:13 PM EST
    Northern Indiana is like Ohio -- lots of Catholics and such. Southern Indiana, on the other hand, is like Kentucky. [Disclosure: Grew up there]

    Parent
    The racial makeups of the states are different (none / 0) (#38)
    by Democratic Cat on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 07:42:44 PM EST
    and who knows, maybe SUSA adjusted their turnout model after Missouri, which they did flub badly. That wouldn't be an unreasonable thing to do.

    Parent
    yep, that's nice to see. (none / 0) (#42)
    by cpinva on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 08:36:10 PM EST
    It is encouraging that the racial divide is not as pronounced in indiana.

    however, bear in mind, gary is probably the population density of the AA community in indiana. everywhere else is white as bleached whale bones! lol

    SUSA IN Poll: Clinton By 9 | 46 comments (46 topical)

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