A new Los Angeles Times poll finds that re-election support for President Bush in 2004 has dropped below 50%.

"The share of Americans favoring President Bush's reelection in 2004 has fallen below 50%, while Sens. Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut and John F. Kerry of Massachusetts have emerged as the leaders for the Democratic nomination...."

"...the new results suggest that the close partisan balance that defined American politics before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks is slowly reasserting itself. The fall in the percentage of voters committing to support Bush's reelection parallels a decline in his job approval rating since last fall and the return of sharp divisions along party lines about his performance."

And the best news of all..."Former Sen. Gary Hart of Colorado, who is exploring a candidacy, and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards tied for third, each with 8%."

The losers: "Sen. Bob Graham of Florida, who has said he is likely to enter the Democratic race, and Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri, who will formally announce his candidacy later this month, drew 6% each. Trailing the pack were African American activist Al Sharpton, with 2%, and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, with 1%."

For more on the poll analysis, read "Bush is Not the Stealth Candidate He Was After 9/11," here. Excerpts from the polling data are here.

Josh over at OxBlog heard Gary Hart speak in Oxford a few days ago. He gave the National Security speech we wrote about here. We disagree with Josh's criticism, which mainly seems to stem from a question he asked Hart at the end of the speech that did not get answered to his satisfaction. Josh is also not a liberal, judging from the blogs on his blogroll, and is a Bush and War supporter, judging from a quick perusal of a few posts on his blog that we just read, so again, we're not surprised he didn't agree with Hart.

Josh takes issue with Hart's position that before we go to war, Bush should answer a few questions, for example, how many casualties can be expected and how long will we be there. Josh says the questions are "sophistry" because no one knows the answer to them. We think that's exactly Hart's point--there are no answers and the American people shouldn't back a war where the answers to those kinds of questions are unknown. Here's what Hart said:

There is every reason now to believe that, within days, American forces—possibly with token support from allies—will invade Iraq. Under these circumstances, and acknowledging the unity of America behind our forces once committed, any attempt to outline a national security policy for the future, such as I undertake here, requires several observations to be made.

The American people deserve to know the costs of this commitment. They deserve to know which members of the international community openly support us, including with military resources. They deserve to know, most of all, casualty estimates on both sides. We have been told none of these things. It cost us 50,000 American lives in Viet Nam to learn the lesson that the American people must not be misled, lied to, or treated as incompetent on military engagements.

The United States military does not belong to the president; it belongs to the American people. Our support for its commitment to combat is crucial for its success. That support cannot be granted in the dark and without a candid statement by the commander in chief regarding the probable costs in human lives and national treasure of its commitment.

Further, as Hart said in his response to Bush's SOTUS

The President is still either unable or unwilling to provide concrete evidence of current Iraqi involvement in terrorism sufficient to justify possible substantial loss of American lives in a war in Iraq. He also is unable or unwilling to provide assurance to the American people that our homeland is sufficiently secure from terrorist attacks before such a war is initiated. As our Council on Foreign Relations Task Force Report of October 25 documented, America is still unprepared and still at risk. We should not go to war until America is prepared to defend itself at home from terrorist attacks that the Central Intelligence Agency has said will most probably occur when we go to war in the Middle East.

Josh says Hart's warnings about civil liberties violations and his comments about the growing fears of American Muslims that the WWII Japanese interment camps will be repeated are "hogwash." Not to the Muslims and Japanese. And not to us. The Indianapolis Star recently interviewed a Diversity Ambassador from Indiana University on the issue.

David Suzuki, IUPUI’s diversity ambassador, was born in the Tule Lake internment camp in Newell, Calif., just after the end of World War II His parents, though U.S. citizens, were imprisoned for about three years while the United States and the Allied forces were at war with Japan.

The Star asked Suzuki to compare the treatment of Japanese-Americans during World War II to the treatment of Arab-Americans and Muslims since the start of the war on terrorism and in anticipation of military conflict with Iraq.

"What similarities do you see between the internment of Japanese-Americans and the treatment of Arab-Americans and American Muslims today?"

"The extended detention of Arab-Americans without formal accusations, the authorization of military tribunals and the use of racial profiling indicate that we could be heading down the same road that the nation mistakenly took 60 years ago. Then, as now, racially motivated fear and hatred seem to be driving some people's actions."

We'd also point out that Hart never said internment camps are "imminent", a position Josh calls "absurd." However, they are a concern, particularly if another large attack on American soil occurs, and Hart predicts it will. Here's Hart's speech: Read for yourselves and decide.

We also heard Hart speak a few nights ago--on Denver's public television station. We reported on it here. One of the reasons we like Hart so much is for his expressed disapproval of Bush and Ashcroft's treatment of the detainees. We agree with Hart that by detaining American citizens without due process, including access to lawyers and hearings, we are violating our own laws. This issue is of far more concern to us than how Hart would enforce a U.N. peace-keeping mission.

So Rhodes scholar or not (and we certainly aren't one, but then again, Josh likely is neither a constitutional nor criminal defense lawyer,) we think you should consider the biased position from which he comes, listen to Hart yourselves and make up your own minds.

Former Georgia Congressman Bob Barr, defeated in his last re-election bid may run again , according to the Washington Post.

"I'm taking a very close and hard look at it," Barr told the Associated Press. "I hope to make a decision with family very shortly." He is believed to be leaning toward running in the state's 6th Congressional District, a mostly Republican area just north of Atlanta. The occupant, Rep. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.), plans to run for the Senate in 2004."

In other election news, Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) is considering a bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.

The Sunday New York Times Magazine runs a long profile on Gary Hart--mostly favorable. Instapundit says Gary should write a blog, he'd be great at it. We agree and suggested it to one of his media advisors earlier this week.

We reported on Gary's interview aired last night on Denver's public television station here. He was just awesome on the subject of the detainees and in his criticism of Ashcroft.

We just watched a thirty minute one-on-one interview with Gary Hart on The Aaron Harber Show on Denver's public television station. He was terrific. Our favorite part, of course, was his absolute trouncing of Ashcroft and the Patriot Act. Hart said Ashcroft comes the closest of anyone in his lifetime to J. Edgar Hoover.

Hart blasted the Government for its treatment of the detainees, including those at Guantanamo Bay. He said by detaining American citizens without due process, including access to lawyers and hearings, we are violating our own laws.

He said it's wrong for the Government not to tell the American people how many detainees are being held. There's no reason not to, except they won't want to answer the next question, "who are they?"

Hart said there will be another major terrorist attack, most likely a nuclear device in a major city. He also said smallpox and cyberwarfare are possibilities.

One thing that continues to perplex him is why, after September 11, no heads rolled. No one was forced to resign. The Government had warning. His committee's report came out in January of 2001 and warned of a terrorist attack on America. On September 5, he gave a speech in Montreal, and the headline of the Montreal Paper on September 6 was "Hart Predicts Terrorist Attack." Yet, America did nothing. There's been no accountability. We were more concerned with scandal and Gary Condit.

You will be able to watch the interview shortly anytime you want, 24/7, on the Aaron Harber Show website.

Via Political Wire:

"Of the seven congressional Democrats who are running for president in 2004 or have indicated they might run, Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts had the most liberal voting record last year, and Sen. Bob Graham of Florida had the most conservative," according to the National Journal's new vote ratings. (See chart for vote ratings over the past 20 years.)"

GOP strategists are "closely scrutinizing the Democratic field and researchers for the Republican National Committee are preparing attack strategies."

Here's how their current assessments pan out:

"-Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is an "ultraliberal" who supports civil unions of gay couples and wants to roll back Bush administration tax cuts to support "budget-busting" universal health care.

-North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is a lightweight who has accomplished little and is "a captive of the trial lawyers," since he made his fortune in that profession.

-Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt is "a keeper of the liberal flame" whose appeal with voters fell short in four attempts to win control of the House of Representatives and in a 1988 presidential run.

-Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry is a direct descendant of 1988 Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis, a governor of the same state.

-Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman is failing to stick with his centrist, moderate policies as a senator, reverting to the adjustments he made in 2000 to fit in with Al Gore's liberal, populist presidential campaign.

-The Rev. Al Sharpton is a welcome addition to the field because his attacks from the left will pull all the Democratic candidates toward the left - "

Tim Russert agrees with us that Hillary is gunning for 2008:

Meet the Press anchor Tim Russert on Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY): "Last week, she secured a position on the Senate Armed Services Committee, a very important strategic move. ... Democrats are unable, unwilling to tackle national security issues, afraid of being labeled as something less than strong or forceful. For the next six years, you'll see Hillary Clinton with the secretary of defense, cross-examining generals visiting military bases here and around the world. And when people suggest that she doesn't have the credentials to run for president of the United States, she will counter, 'I've been on the Armed Services Committee for six years.' It was a very small maneuver. Wasn't paid much attention to. But it was very significant for Hillary watchers. There are a lot of people who want to be president. There are an awful lot of people who don't want to be president. She's positioning herself to run in 2008."

Link via Political Wire.

Gary Hart's response to Bush's State of the Union Address:

The President is still either unable or unwilling to provide concrete evidence of current Iraqi involvement in terrorism sufficient to justify possible substantial loss of American lives in a war in Iraq. He also is unable or unwilling to provide assurance to the American people that our homeland is sufficiently secure from terrorist attacks before such a war is initiated. As our Council on Foreign Relations Task Force Report of October 25 documented, America is still unprepared and still at risk. We should not go to war until America is prepared to defend itself at home from terrorist attacks that the Central Intelligence Agency has said will most probably occur when we go to war in the Middle East.

The New York Times details Gary Hart's back door campaign:

By next month, Mr. Hart intends to have spoken on national security, foreign policy, the economy and civic engagement. Call it a back-door campaign: He drops into the nascent contest for a harmless cup of coffee and then, before you know it, is sitting down at the dining room table in debates with everyone else in the field.

Gary returns from England this weekend. He has not yet decided whether to run. He is concentrating on getting his positions on issues out in the public domain.

February 10 he'll be speaking in San Francisco, details will be available at Gary Hart News.com - Calendar.

Say hello to a new political party--the U.S. Marijuana Party. Composed mostly of libertarians and drug policy activists, the party is up and running in several states. Here's what they say about you forming one in your state:

We have tested this formula and it works. We will show you how to use the internet to form a Marijuana Political Party with a full slate of candidates in your state in 6 months. The way we did it was to first form a coalition of Libertarians and drug policy activists. By using the MARIJUANA NAME to highlight the Libertarian platform an army of drug policy activists become available to run as candidates in elections.

What's their mission? Here is the mission statement for the Colorado Marijuana Party.

Other states with Marijuana parties up and running include Tennessee, Alabama, California, Florida, Hawaii, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, New York and Pennsylvania.

How could such a one-issue party be successful? Here's what they say:

The goal of forming a Marijuana Party in your state is to become the king-maker in your state election. It is not to actually win any seats in your state house of representatives or senate..... The civil rights of Americans have been compromised by the war on drugs. Because the vast majority of citizens who use any illegal substance use only marijuana, the war on drugs is basically a war on marijuana. If you can pull the plug on the war on marijuana, you end the war on drugs as we know it. You shut down the prison industrial complex, and you restore the liberties that have been eroded because of this futile war on marijuana.

The key to success lie's in the party's structure, which you can read all about here.

Here's the latest news on Gary Hart and his potential presidential bid:

Des Moines Register: Hart Uses Speeches to Gauge Support

Baltimore Sun: Despite Baggage, Hart Should Elevate Debate

New York Times: Gary Hart Weighs Strengths Against Past Embarrassment: What did Hart know when he got to Iowa to give a speech Wednesday? He knew reporters wanted to ask about the embarassing incident in his past. He knew he has no money or political organization behind him, except for a few students touting him on a website.

But Mr. Hart, who represented Colorado in the Senate from 1975 to 1987, also knew he had a couple of advantages. As a prophet who kept warning of terrorist attacks well before Sept. 11, he might emerge as the only Democrat with a clear defining issue: the Cassandra candidate. And while the others have a head start, no one knows presidential campaigning the way he does.

How does he explain the "folly," as he has been calling his involvement with the young model Donna Rice, that ended his campaign when he was the front-runner in 1987?

"I made a mistake," he said. "I went to great pains to accept responsibility for it and to apologize to all concerned, starting with my family and everyone else. I said then and I continue to say there's a difference between that kind of mistake and not having the character to lead. Character is revealed over a lifetime."

Mr. Hart's mistake may seem less troubling to some voters who have been conditioned by President Bill Clinton's troubles with a White House intern. After all, Mr. Hart's folly did not occur in the office or involve a subordinate; he did not issue indignant denials or parse the meaning of "is"; he was not accused of perjury or obstruction of justice. Given Mr. Clinton's continuing popularity, have public attitudes changed?

"All I know is how people treat me, ordinary people in restaurants and airports," Mr. Hart said. "An amazing number of Americans come up to and say, `I felt for you' and tell me their life stories. The common theme is, everybody makes mistakes."

Noting that his marriage has lasted 44 years, Mr. Hart dismissed the idea that the mistake was part of a pattern of recklessness. "This was not any kind of relationship or long-term situation," he said. "It was just a totally accidental set of circumstances that I regret, and I regret for everybody involved, including the other party, who was very unfairly characterized. I feel responsible. But how many people on this airplane do you think care anything about that? I've talked about it on television, and I'm talking about it with you, and I'll talk about it two or three more times, and then I'm not going to talk about it anymore. It's a distraction. How many times can you say what I've said?"

We've heard enough, and we're satisfied.

On the War against Iraq:

"Every community in this country is vulnerable," Mr. Hart said in a speech at Iowa State University, which attracted a crowd of nearly 200 on a night with a wind chill of minus 25 degrees. "Not one American soldier should cross the Iraqi border until this country is prepared for the inevitable retaliatory attacks."

Upcoming Speeches

January 25, 2003:
Friends of Libraries Authors Breakfast Philadelphia, 8:30-10:30 AM
Senator Hart will discuss his recent book, Restoration of the Republic, from Oxford University Press.

January 28, 2003:
"US Security in the 21st Century"
New Mexico First 2003 First Forum Dinner
6:00 PM Reception, 7:00 PM Dinner
Sheraton Old Town Hotel
800 Rio Grande Blvd., N.W., Albuquerque, NM

Presidential contender Bob Graham of Florida has put his presidential run on hold while he has heart surgery.

We're opposed to Graham. Why? He's a fervent supporter of the death penalty. Per reporter David Firestone in the New York Times this past Sunday:

Mr. Graham, who came to prominence in Florida through his full-throated support for capital punishment, echoed that thought in an interview last week. "The trouble with a moratorium is that it applies to the full population of death row, where I think the focus should be on a case-by-case basis," he said. "Apparently, Illinois had some very egregious practices, but I think in Florida we have a system with adequate checks and gateposts."

It's tough to square that view with the news today about the release of Rudolph Holton, who spent 16 years on Florida's death row. From the AP article:

Holton was convicted of raping and killing 17-year-old prostitute Katrina Graddy and setting her on fire in an abandoned drug house. About 10 days before the slaying, Graddy told police another man had raped her. Holton's attorney was not given the police report. Because of that error, Florida's Supreme Court ruled in December that Holton deserved a new trial.

But prosecutor Mark Ober decided against another trial, citing the unreliability of witness testimony and a lack of physical evidence. Holton attorney Martin McClain said: "Though we are certainly pleased that the state attorney has dropped the charges, this does not change the awful fact that Rudolph Holton served over 16 years on death row for a crime that he did not commit."

McClain said that in addition to the failure to turn over the police report, were other problems with the case. A hair in Graddy's mouth that prosecutors said came from Holton was later tested and found to be her own, he said. Also, jailhouse witnesses recanted their testimony against Holton.

Between 23 and 25 innocent people have been freed from Florida's death row since 1976, according to varying tallies. The AP article above reports that Holton becomes the second person to be released from Florida's death row in about a year. Juan Melendez walked out of prison a free man last January after he won a new trial and prosecutors declined to try him again. In 2000, DNA evidence cleared death row inmate Frank Lee Smith of a 1985 murder. But it was too late for Smith, who had died of cancer 11 months earlier."

This is not " "Adequate checks and gateposts'' to us. Can Graham really think because some mistakes were caught, they've gotten them all? We wish him well with his heart surgery, but he's not our candidate.