Reading the apologias for the bad bargaining by Democrats, I've come to the point that I can see only two alternatives: (1) either Bill Clinton was the greatest political bargainer in recent memory, or (2) a lot of people do not understand bargaining. Consider this Matt Yglesias post:

I’ve been in a few conversations with various people this week citing one strategy or another that they claim could have produced a “clean” debt ceiling increase and avoided the current legislative crisis. I basically agree with all these theories. Obama could have gotten a debt ceiling increase built into the December 2010 tax deal [. . .] But I’m not sure this is a case of bad negotiating strategy or good negotiating strategy.

We’ve seen so much mockery of “11-dimensional chess” that I think people have gotten unduly reluctant to credit the idea that there’s a bit of regular old chess happening here where you have to think one or two moves ahead. [. . . R]easonable people can disagree as to whether having the fight now is better than having the fight then, but I don’t think it’s by any means crazy for the White House to suppose that the current timing is more favorable to the progressive side or crazy to believe that they did, in fact, see two moves ahead and decide they preferred this outcome.

I do not know how a reasonable person could see it Yglesias' way. Not raising the debt ceiling is the most dramatic doomsday point that could be imagined. Failure to raise the debt ceiling would be catastrophic in the short and medium term and likely the long term. Indeed, the President will end up by caving at the end, and rightly so. This is not the moment for brinksmanship. More . . .

Via Dean Baker, a hill of beans:

Look at the chart - AAA S&P rated Australia's 10 year bonds are yielding 4.9%. A- S&P rated Malaysia's 10 year bonds are yielding 3.9%. AA- rated Japan's 10 year bonds, and currently holding a negative watch from S&P, are paying 1.1%. AA- China's 10 year bonds, currently S&P rated stable, are yielding 4.1%.

While as a general matter, the countries S&P has chosen to rate AAA face lower interest rates than countries with lower ratings, there is so much randomness that it is difficult to attribute any cause to S&P ratings. I think no one seems to pay attention to S&P on sovereign debt ratings. More . . .

Krugman writes:

There’s actually a simple way to resolve the debt ceiling crisis: non-crazy Republican leaders could support something like the Reid plan — which is, let’s be clear, a huge victory for the right and defeat for progressives — and pass it with limited GOP support and overwhelming Democratic support. Situation resolved. This would, however, probably be the end of these Republicans’ political careers. And the answer is, so? [. . . T]ak[ing] the action I’ve just described means that they are risking America’s future rather than pay a price in their personal political careers. That’s cowardice on an epic scale, even if it’s the kind of behavior we take for granted nowadays.

This is kind of silly from Krugman. Pols have always acted first and foremost in their own political interests. The key for the electorate is to make them act in ways that are beneficial to the Nation. There are 2 ways out of this mess now - (1) carve a solution that allows pols, politically, to act to raise the debt ceiling; or (2) make not raising the debt ceiling the worst political choice.

I think not even the Tea Partiers really care about raising the debt ceiling, even when the President is a Democrat. This is the biggest political paper tiger of all time. But Boehner thinks he needs one more concession. And he'll get it - they will break up the Reid Plan into 2 votes, so that Boehner can claim a win. This is all very predictable imo.

Speaking for me only

Busy day again for me. Here's an open thread for you, all topics welcome.

Digby:

The activist base and elite liberals are the tip of the spear. Being honest about what we see still has a purpose: to keep liberalism alive, motivate the base for other elections, build the progressive movement. And the activist base and liberal elites will have a hand in determining the president's legacy. Once he's done catering to these alleged Independents who want nothing more than to slash government to the bone, he's going to start thinking about that.

I'm thinking the more important lesson from the Clinton Era remains 'it's the economy, stupid':

Ironic quote of the day from David Brooks:

[T]he president lost his cool. Obama never should have gone in front of the cameras just minutes after the talks faltered Friday evening. His appearance was suffused with that “I’m the only mature person in Washington” condescension that drives everybody else crazy.

Coming from Brooks, that's rich.

Open Thread.

President Obama will address the nation on the debt ceiling and budget cut issues tonight at 9:00 pm ET. If you're not by a TV, you can watch live here.

For Bachelorette fans, nothing to worry about. Show honcho Mike Fleiss tweets:

Good news! Tonite's show will be shown in it's entirety. You won't miss a single minute.

Good thing, because who wants to miss the Fantasy Dates in Fiji with JP, Ben and Constantine, even though we know from spoilers who goes home?

Back to Obama: Here's a pre-speech thread, all related topics welcome.

While Speaker John Boehner rolled out a debt ceiling proposal, it's not clear that he has the votes in the House to pass it. Here's the proposal:

House Republican leaders pushed for a vote Wednesday on a two-step plan that would allow the federal debt limit to immediately be raised by about $1 trillion and tie a second increase next year to the ability of a new joint Congressional committee to produce more deficit reduction.

Boehner's the Speaker, why do they need to "push for a vote?" Here's the more interesting question to me, does Boehner have the votes to pass it? I saw Cantor was with him, but did Cantor bring the Tea Party votes? (Not Bachmann for sure.) I assume Dems will vote en masse against it.

Speaking for me only

Colorado gets its first IKEA store Wednesday, and people began lining up at 9 am this morning. They will camp outside to be one of the first 38 people in line to get a $399 sofa free. Why 38? It's the 38th IKEA store in the U.S. The next hundred get an armchair.

The 415,000 square foot Swedish home furnishing store is south of Denver, in Centennial. The public is told to expect traffic delays on I-25 near the store for days after opening. 40,000 people a day are expected to visit the store during opening weekend.

Is this an amusement park or a store? Apparently, both. The best bargain may be the 99 cent breakfast of bacon and eggs, served every day.

This is an open thread, all topics welcome.

Open Thread.

This road was paved by the hopeless and the hungry
This road was paved by the winds of change
Walking beside the guilty and the innocent
How will you raise your hand when they call your name?

We weren't born to follow
Come on and get up off your knees
When life is a bitter pill to swallow
You've got to stand up for what you believe

This is not the time for giving up or giving in. This is not the time to capitulate to Republicans. This is the time to do the right thing by the people you took an oath to represent. Spare us your later apologies, they will fall on deaf ears.

One thing our politicians don't seem to take into account is that the average voter (and I include myself in this group) has no idea about the financial big picture because we don't understand it. We only understand when it gets personal....when they threaten to cut something we expected to get (like social security or Medicare), when our health insurance premiums become obscene or when the Government makes us pay for something we had no voice in and opposed (like a few wars, here and there.) The result may be that we take our frustrations out on incumbents in 2012. All of them. Too bad for them, but they all deserve it.

We may not understand the spin and fancy words that the Government and journalists use, but when the numbers are listed by themselves, all in one place, the picture is becoming clear: Our Government is robbing us blind.

In 2001, our debt was $5.3 trillion. It's now $14.3 trillion. What did we do with the $9 trillion we borrowed in the last ten years and who lent it to us? [More...]