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Winning

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Other Politics
Posted on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 12:36:34 PM EST
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Ezra predicts:

[W]e’re looking at [a debt ceiling] deal with no new revenue, significant new spending cuts, a spending-cut based enforcement mechanism for further deficit reduction, a series of debt-ceiling votes designed to embarrass Democrats, and a vote on a balanced budget amendment that’s also designed to embarrass Democrats. It’s a pretty good deal for Republicans, but it’s also a deal that observers expect a substantial number of Democrats could vote for.

That's a win for the GOP. And it is a loss for the President. Why? It helps the President not at all politically (no voter gives a crap about the debt ceiling) and is not good for the economy in the short and medium term (and thus not good in the long term either.)

It is an amazing thing that in the middle of the worst economic times since the Depression, this is what our federal government is doing. This is a bigger failure of our ruling elites than the Iraq Debacle.

Speaking for me only

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    Winning | 40 comments (40 topical)

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    And Harry Reid's epic plan (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by lilburro on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 12:50:53 PM EST
    comes to fruition!

    "Let the Republicans have some buy-in on the debt. They're going to have a majority in the House," said Reid. "I don't think it should be when we have a heavily Democratic Senate, heavily Democratic House and a Democratic president."

    Yes.  After a majority of the Dems in the House vote for this, and almost all if not all of the Dems in the Senate vote for this, and it is signed by our Dem President, your victory will be assured, Harry.

    Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. (none / 0) (#5)
    by oculus on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 01:07:19 PM EST
    Why is he still in this position and why does he stay such a stupid thing?  

    Parent
    What I wouldn't give to see everyone (5.00 / 2) (#2)
    by nycstray on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 12:59:01 PM EST
    at Obama's next Town Hall wearing t-shirts that say "It's the economy, stupid . . . ".

    and I hope Ezra is wrong (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by kmblue on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 01:05:51 PM EST
    but if he is, they'll probably come up with something worse.   Our prez has zero empathy for struggling folk.  Oh, how I miss Bill.  At least he said he felt our pain.

    Obviously.... (5.00 / 2) (#6)
    by kdog on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 01:16:40 PM EST
    not the pain of cold steel binding our wrists, or the pain Glass-Steagal repeal would cause.

    I'll take positive action as a main course, though empathy as a side dish never hurt...sincerity a key ingredient though.

    Parent

    I hear you, dog (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by kmblue on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 01:32:03 PM EST
    just shows how desperate I am for a little empathy and sincerity from Prez.  Spock.  Not gonna happen cuz he's sincerely deluded.

    Parent
    No worries... (none / 0) (#11)
    by kdog on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 01:49:28 PM EST
    Clinton sanctification is a pet peeve...until we realize and acknowledge once and for all that Brand D has been selling us a lemon for 30 years, and has no plans but to continue selling us lemons, we ain't gettin' nowhere.

    'Bama Jeff '12, and Dadler for Treasury.

    Parent

    except for the fact that Clinton was successful (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by klassicheart on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 12:58:09 AM EST
    That fact is always elusive to the Clinton bashers or nullifiers.  No he wasn't perfect.  But the income of all groups went up under his Presidency.  He left office with a surplus.  And he had a Republican congress.  Obama is on par with Carter....Clinton is in an entirely different league.  He saved the Democratic party, which was in the toilet.  And under the present facts, Clinton would have managed everything differently...and successfully.  The Democratic brand improved under Clinton.  It's back in the toilet with Obama...not that Republicans offer much of an alternative.  But they are only free to complain about deficits when they don't have either the Senate or the Presidency.  It clearly wasn't a problem for them under Bush.

    Parent
    Dem some rose-colored glasses... (none / 0) (#40)
    by kdog on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 08:59:25 AM EST
    ya got there my friend.

    The income gap continued to widen, the deregulation aiding the economic coup we just lived through, and nearest to my heart his unprecedented amp up of the war on marijuana, a war on our own people.  

    If thats saving Brand D, I really wish he hadn't...maybe we'd actually have a party of the people by now.

    Parent

    "Winning!" (5.00 / 3) (#14)
    by scribe on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 01:56:56 PM EST
    Charlie Sheen-style.

    Isn't the whole problem with Washington right now (5.00 / 0) (#15)
    by abdiel on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 02:07:05 PM EST
    that everyone only thinks of policy in terms of winning and losing? What ever happened to doing the best thing for America?

    Btd did you mean (none / 0) (#3)
    by kmblue on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 01:04:23 PM EST
    since  the Iraq debacle?  

    If Obama signs a bill with a series (none / 0) (#8)
    by ruffian on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 01:42:53 PM EST
    of debt ceiling votes in it he is a bigger fool than I ever even imagined. It tells me there is nothing at all he will not accept.

    He will not accept... (5.00 / 3) (#12)
    by Dadler on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 01:49:42 PM EST
    ...that Reagan was a bad president. ;-)


    Parent
    From the 'pols are pols' model I at least (none / 0) (#18)
    by ruffian on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 02:15:23 PM EST
    expect him to reject what it is his own worst interests. Signing up to go through this again jsut seems masochistic.

    Admiring Reagan is stupid, but wanting to live throught he last month again is just plain crazy :-)

    Parent

    My impression of Ezra's take (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by lilburro on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 02:26:52 PM EST
    is that the series of votes on the debt ceiling is the fake series of votes proposed by McConnell - the President has the authority to raise the debt ceiling, and the House is allowed to go "walla walla walla" and life goes on.

    Parent
    OK, that is not quite as bad (none / 0) (#28)
    by ruffian on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 02:39:07 PM EST
    I hated the silly show votes of the McConnell plan, but if that is all they are then that is better than the full fledged re-debate of the Boehner bill.

    Parent
    And, when all is said & done (none / 0) (#30)
    by christinep on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 02:47:39 PM EST
    Interesting: Reports that Biden & McConnell have been doing some negotiating the past few days.

    Parent
    According to Harry Reid (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by ruffian on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 02:12:34 PM EST
    the senate will kill the Boehner Bill with its series of votes.

    "Today the House of Representatives will vote on Speaker Boehner's short-term plan to raise the debt ceiling," Reid said on the Senate floor. "As soon as the House completes its vote tonight, the Senate will move to take up that bill. It will be defeated. No Democrat will vote for a short-term Band-Aid that would put our economy at risk and put the nation back in this untenable situation a few short months from now."

    Let's hope so. The only thing more insane than this whole debate is doing it again in December.

    Parent

    I mean, i don't like the Imperial Presidency (none / 0) (#9)
    by ruffian on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 01:44:24 PM EST
    but this is a degree of debasement no one with any price in the office would accept.

    Parent
    pride (none / 0) (#10)
    by ruffian on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 01:44:42 PM EST


    Parent
    It is more degrading than pride (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 02:31:28 PM EST
    It limits America's possibilities at a time when that is all we have to cling to and build from.  Such a thing will destroy the market confidence and in reality, that is all the markets have at this time.  As much as I see the sham of that, burning down the markets will likely cause wholesale crisis everywhere.  I wanted the crisis of the people fixed, having to have this debt ceiling argument over and over again within a span of months will gut all confidence fairies and probably cause massive global crisis.

    Parent
    Did you see Bruce Bartlett (none / 0) (#27)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 02:36:57 PM EST
    say he doesn't think that the House can really pass anything?

    Parent
    Very much agree (none / 0) (#13)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 01:55:08 PM EST


    cue ABG (none / 0) (#16)
    by The Addams Family on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 02:09:11 PM EST
    to come & tell us that this is only a prediction & that nobody knows yet what will be in the deal

    Well, it is a prediction form Ezra Klein after all (none / 0) (#19)
    by ruffian on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 02:16:41 PM EST
    ABG must be busy so I will step in here.

    Parent
    this is so depressing (none / 0) (#20)
    by The Addams Family on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 02:18:24 PM EST
    that this is one time i would actually like to hear from ABG

    i want to belieeeeve

    Parent

    And if the deal actually happens like this (none / 0) (#21)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 02:20:56 PM EST
    he will drive by to tell us how silly we are for not seeing the wisdom in it.

    Parent
    i give him more credit (none / 0) (#25)
    by The Addams Family on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 02:33:56 PM EST
    last week he said his spidey sense was starting to tell him the deal would suck

    we'll see if ABG drank the arachnicide

    Parent

    True, but then he backed off ... (5.00 / 2) (#31)
    by Yman on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 03:07:07 PM EST
    ... of that and went back to "Obama will be the grown up and agree to a compromise that won't be so bad and will be a winner politically" (paraphrasing).

    Even if a bad deal goes through, it'll be because "Obama had no choice", blah, blah ...

    Parent

    Addams Family: You might be interested in (none / 0) (#34)
    by christinep on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 03:47:28 PM EST
    an AP post today on Google about the role of "chicken" in negotiations. We all know about MAD and the role it played in the Cold War; and, as BTD occasionally mentions, we know about the temporary "power" or advantage that "crazy" can have. Near the end of the article, tho, this part caught my eye: When groups (as opposed to individuals) are involved, the "chicken" strategy has a relatively lower chance of producing an outcome other than negative for everyone...1 in 4 might be described as positive.  A tidbit...but, a potentially useful tidbit.

    Parent
    Well the GOP (none / 0) (#35)
    by lilburro on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 04:04:16 PM EST
    is playing chicken, and the outcome is going to be a bill of some sort with at least 2 trillion in spending cuts.

    I feel like you are holding out for some different result.  Are you?

    Parent

    it's true (none / 0) (#24)
    by CST on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 02:32:52 PM EST
    the Boehner bill won't pass the senate.

    Do you see the Reid bill passing the house?

    Personally, I think we are headed for default.  Not because that was Obama's grand plan, I it's clear that's not what he wants, but because I don't see another way out.

    Parent

    The Gang of Six says they are ready (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by MO Blue on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 04:30:41 PM EST
    with their plan as soon as the Boehner and the Reid plans fail.

    Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) said Thursday that he expects both the Republicans and Democrats' current deficit proposals to fail.

    When they do, he said, the Gang of Six -- a bipartisan group of senators who have negotiated their own deficit deal -- would be ready with a draft of their its proposal [...]

    "Reality is that both sides have to see that their favorite position cannot prevail," Conrad said. "It's at that point you can reach a principled compromise. We're not quite there yet, but we're very close."

    The Gang of Six is "going to be prepared to be a part of the solution" once the deadlock happens, Conrad said. The group of senators has a draft that is undergoing revision by "the staffs of all the members," he said.

    Using the recommendations of the Cat Food Commission as the basis:

    The complex plan -- hammered out over months of steady negotiations -- envisions deep spending cuts to discretionary spending and entitlement programs to make up about three-quarters of the savings. The remaining quarter would come from increased revenues achieved through tax reform.

    "What you'll see is significant amount of revenue generated out of the tax reforms and reductions in the (marginal) rates," Coburn said.



    Parent
    that will never pass (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by CST on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 04:42:22 PM EST
    It has both the "sacred cows".

    Parent
    Not sure that it really has both (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by MO Blue on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 05:59:20 PM EST
    the sacred cows.

    "What you'll see is significant amount of revenue generated out of the tax reforms and reductions in the (marginal) rates," Coburn said.

    This seems the same old, same old Republican spiel. We are going to increase revenue by reducing taxes (i.e. marginal rates).  

    Parent

    not gonna happen (none / 0) (#26)
    by The Addams Family on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 02:35:49 PM EST
    the owners on Wall Street will put a quick end to this pajama party before they allow that

    well, unless they've all made side bets & plan to short the U.S.

    Parent

    wall street may end up paying the price (none / 0) (#29)
    by CST on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 02:46:24 PM EST
    for electing a bunch of wackos that they can't control.

    Parent
    i wish! (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by The Addams Family on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 03:16:50 PM EST
    i wish they had elected people they can't control

    Parent
    Have you guys not considered... (none / 0) (#33)
    by kdog on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 03:44:15 PM EST
    they will stop cutting government worker paychecks before they miss an interest payment?  

    The rightwing echo chamber says there is no real
    threat of default, we can pay interest on existing receivables...thought the echo does not elaborate on what we will go without to keep paying the vig absent raising the roof.

    Parent

    Winning | 40 comments (40 topical)

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