The Democrats need to win six Republican seats to control the Senate. I'm no numbers cruncher, but most seem to agree Missouri, Virginia and Tennessee are the hot states to watch.

With polls showing that the war may strongly influence many voters' decisions, analysts in both parties agreed that Missouri, Virginia and Tennessee are the keys to controlling the 100-member Senate, where Democrats need to gain six seats to claim the majority

I'm wondering whether Harold Ford can carry Tennessee. He would be the first African-American elected to the Senate from the South in more than a century. Republicans have funded tons of last minute advertising dollars into his opponent Bob Corker's camaign.

Here comes the dump on Pastor Ted Haggard:

Pat Robertson:

"We're sad to see any evangelical leader fall," the Rev. Pat Robertson said on his television show, "The 700 Club." But, he added, it "just isn't true" that the NAE represents 30 million churchgoers, as the association claims.

"We can't get their financial data. I think it's because they have very little money and very little influence," Robertson said.

Jerry Falwell:

The Rev. Jerry Falwell, speaking Thursday night on CNN, said Haggard "doesn't really lead the movement. He's president of an association that's very loose-knit . . . and no one has looked to them for leadership."

Jealousy and running for cover. I suspect Falwell and Robertson never liked Haggard to begin with. He was far too moderate for their brand of evangelicalism. He was the up and comer and they are the old guard whose dynasties are fading.

Primative beyond belief: A Saudi court has sentenced the victim of a gang rape to 90 lashes because she was alone in a car with a man not her spouse.

The man she was with was not one of the rapists. She and her friend were proceeding to their car when they were kidnapped by the rapists and driven to a farm where they raped her. The court also ordered her male friend to get 90 lashes.

What happened to the rapists:

The four, all married, were sentenced respectively to five years and 1,000 lashes, four years and 800 lashes, four years and 350 lashes, and one year and 80 lashes.

A fifth, married, man who was stated to have filmed the rape on his mobile phone still faces investigation. Two others alleged to have taken part in the rape evaded capture.

Even President Bush's neo-con advisors now say the mess in Iraq is all his fault.

As Iraq slips further into chaos, the war's neoconservative boosters have turned sharply on the Bush administration, charging that their grand designs have been undermined by White House incompetence. In a series of exclusive interviews, Richard Perle, Kenneth Adelman, David Frum, and others play the blame game with shocking frankness. Target No. 1: the president himself.

President Bush is spending the night in Colorado. Veep Dick Cheney rallied the troops here this afternoon and campaigned for Republican Doug Lamborn, who even the Republicans don't like and who is running neck and neck with Democrat Jay Fawcett in the heavily Republican district that includes Colorado Springs, home to the evangelical right.

Bush is headed to Greeley to campaign for the mother of the anti-gay marriage amendment, Marilyn Musgrave.

He may be too late. The latest poll shows Musgrave and her Democratic opponent, Angie Paccione, in a dead heat.

For Pastor Haggard:

Son of a Preacher Man (Dusty Springfield, 1999)

For Mike Jones:

Can I get a Witness? (Dusty Springfield, 1964)

Michigan voters will decide on Tuesday whether to ban affirmative action in university admissions.

Newsweek reporter Ellis Cose has completed a report Killing Affirmative Action (pdf) for the USC Annenberg Institute for Justice and Journalism. The school's site also provides this helpful list of links on the topic.

Towards the end of the lengthy report, Cose writes:

James Dobson's Focus on the Family released this statement today about Ted Haggard:

"All of us at Focus on the Family are heartsick over the allegation, not yet confirmed, that Ted has had a private life with a homosexual for several years. We will await the outcome of this story, but the possibility that an illicit relationship has occurred is alarming to us and to millions of others.

"Ted has been my close friend and colleague for many years. He has been used mightily to spread the Gospel of Jesus Christ in Colorado Springs and around the world. He will continue to be my friend, even if the worst allegations prove accurate. Nevertheless, sexual sin, whether homosexual or heterosexual, has serious consequences, and we are extremely concerned for Ted, his family and his church.

"We ask that the Focus on the Family constituency and Christians everywhere pray for Ted and his loved ones. Our hearts go out to all of them. Perhaps the allegations are false and the circumstances are not as we have heard. Either way, the situation has grave implications for the Cause of Christ, and we ask for the Lord’s guidance and blessings in the days ahead."

Yes, school bus drivers shouldn't flip the bird while they're on duty. And perhaps, as the Issaquah (WA) School District claims, a bus driver who gave President Bush the finger has engaged in a similar "pattern of behavior," although it would be nice to know whether she's ever been disciplined for prior alleged incidents of a similar nature. In any event, it's fair to wonder whether the school district fired the bus driver only because the president happened to see her making the gesture.

Congressman Dave Reichert called the district's superintendent to report that the president, who rarely takes note of the world around him, happened to notice the upraised finger. Shortly after that, the driver was fired -- a seemingly harsh response to a rather minor incident. Again, it would be useful to know whether lesser discipline has been imposed upon the driver for other work rule violations, and whether a policy of progressive discipline (starting with, for instance, a warning or a brief suspension) has been used with other employees who commit similar violations.

The driver has filed a union grievance. Perhaps the full factual record will become public as the grievance moves forward. At this point, losing a job over a disrespectful gesture seems extreme, particularly when it's the president who deserves to be fired. The district claims the decision isn't political, but would the termination have occurred if the complaint hadn't come from a congressman?

Regardless of Mike Jones' credibility (discussed here), Ted Haggard made some self-incriminating statements this morning.

This morning, Haggard said he had never had sex with Jones but said he did buy methamphetamine out of curiosity.

Curiosity? Haggard claims he threw the drugs away. He was curious about what meth looked like? That's a hard one to swallow. (Jones, you'll recall, claims that Haggard used the meth to enhance his sexual experiences with Jones.)

Haggard says he was massaged by Jones but denies having sex with him. Make of that what you will. (More about Haggard in this 2005 profile at Harper's.)

The Washington Times reports:

The Pentagon has stepped up planning for attacks against North Korea's nuclear program and is bolstering nuclear forces in Asia, said defense officials familiar with the highly secret process.

The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the accelerated military planning includes detailed programs for striking a North Korean plutonium-reprocessing facility at Yongbyon with special operations commando raids or strikes with Tomahawk cruise missiles or other precision-guided weapons.

How much war will be enough for this Administration? Who will fight all these wars? Your kids? Mine?

Could Mike Jones be lying about some or all of his accusations against Pastor Ted Haggard?

Mike Jones took a polygraph examination, and was asked about his claim of a sexual relationship with Haggard. The polygraph examination showed "some deception." However, the person who administered the test said on Denver radio station KHOW that the results could be skewed by Jones's "mental and physical exhaustion."

I am not a supporter of the accuracy of polygraphs. They are junk science in my opinion. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if Jones fabricated or embellished some of his story.

The meth allegations make more sense to me than the sex allegations, but we'll see what develops.