Mason Dixon polls in Colorado and New Mexico provide a mixed bag of news. In Colorado, M-D shows Obama with a 3 point lead, 46-43 and in New Mexico, it shows McCain with a 4 point lead. Earlier I posted on the M-D poll showing McCain with a 7 point lead in Nevada. An earlier Q poll had McCain ahead in Colorado.

The Obama electoral map seems to show Virginia (13 EVs), Iowa (7 EVs), Colorado (9 EVs), New Mexico (5 EVs) and Nevada (5 EVs) as top hopes for shifting red states to blue states. Obama is also competitive in Ohio (20 EVs) (some would argue he is competitive in Florida (27 EVs), I am not one of those people.) McCain is likely aiming at Michigan (17 EVs) and New Hampshire (4 EVs) as pickup opportunities. More . . .

As most of you know by now, the difference maker for me in supporting Barack Obama in the primaries was the fact the he is the Media Darling of the election. Today, in the NYTimes, you see what I mean in Maureen Dowd's column:

[I]t’s hard to believe that John McCain is now in danger of exceeding his credit limit on the equivalent of an American Express black card. His campaign is cheapening his greatest strength — and making a mockery of his already dubious claim that he’s reticent to talk about his P.O.W. experience — by flashing the P.O.W. card to rebut any criticism, no matter how unrelated. The captivity is already amply displayed in posters and TV advertisements.

If anyone but Obama were the Democratic nominee, Dowd and the Media would never have written anything like that. That is what being the Media Darling means. It is a powerful asset for a political candidate.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

It's credentials pick-up day here. I'm off to the Sheraton downtown to pick up my DNCC blogger credentials. Then to the Big Tent to get the credentials for their facility.

The Pepsi Center is but a small part of what is happening here this week. I'll be there at night for some speeches, but since everyone can watch them on TV, it's not what I plan to devote a lot of time to writing about. I'm also more interested in writing about what's going on behind the scenes than what everyone can see for themselves. [More...]

Here's one, via Glenn Reynolds:

Florida Sen. Bill Nelson said he talked with Obama last Tuesday and put forth two names: Biden and Clinton. "He's an excellent choice for Barack in Florida," Nelson said of Biden, noting that he "knows all the players on the world stage," but has never lost touch with his working-class roots. "He's got appeal across the board," Nelson said.

Why? Because folks like Bill Nelson, a Clinton supporter and a fighter for seating the Florida delegation to the convention, have some credibility with Clinton supporters. Look at how Nelson frames the issue. He says he recommended Clinton and Biden. He makes it seem picking Biden is a nod to Clinton. That is the type of framing I would use if I was the Obama campaign.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

andgarden points us to two state polls. A Colorado Q poll:

Sen. Barack Obama enters the Democratic National Convention in a dead heat with Sen. John McCain for Colorado's crucial nine electoral votes, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released today. Sen. McCain has 47 percent to Sen. Obama's 46 percent [McCain was up 2 in a June Q poll].

And Mason Dixon's Nevada poll has McCain by 7:

As both parties aim to put the diverse and growing swing state into play, McCain has taken the lead by a margin of 46 percent to Obama's 39 percent, with 15 percent undecided, according to the poll.

By Big Tent Democrat

ABC/WaPo poll:

Obama maintains a narrow, six-point edge over McCain among registered voters. Among those most likely to vote, 49 percent back Obama and 45 percent back McCain.

Curiously, WaPo shows a narrowing from the previous RV result but a slight increase in its LV result. It all amounts to no change really. But the changes in the RV result track with two key indicators - President Bush's approval rating, which ticked up 2 (from 28 to 30) and the right track/wrong track result (right track went up from 14 to 19).

The other curious result here is this - "Obama's overall lead in the new poll is attributable in large measure to a nearly 20-point advantage among female voters. He trails McCain by nine points among men." This does not translate for me. Women are likelier voters than men. this should translate into a 6 point LV lead for Obama. the only explanation I can see is that Obama does not have as big a lead among the likeliest women voters (older womnen). More . . .

Dateline Denver, 1:00 am: Anita and I just returned from a party hosted by Salon.com at a very beautiful townhouse they rented for the convention.

We had a terrific time. How was it different than past convention parties? There was much more mingling of Mainstream Media with bloggers, and not only did the MSM attendees know each and every blog, they read us and, if I can be Sally Field for the moment, they like us!

It was great to see Duncan Black (aka Atrios of Eschaton), Jane of Firedoglake, Glenn Greenwald, John Amato of Crooks and Liars, Taylor Marsh to name just a few.

I had a great time talking to Jeffrey Toobin, and we reminisced about the time in 2003 when I took him to dinner at a Vegan restaurant in San Francisco with Markos of Daily Kos and his wife Elisa. Back then, Jeffrey was trying to figure out what a blog was. Now, he's reading all of us on that laptop as he's sitting on the set providing his commentary. [More...]

Overnight Open Thread.

Immigration Judges appointed during the Bush years have been justly criticized by federal judges and TalkLeft for writing opinions that, to put it nicely, don't make much sense. Monica Goodling and Kyle Sampson chose IJ's for their loyalty to George Bush and Jesus, not for their understanding of immigration law or due process.

Federal appellate courts must be getting fed up with decisions from IJ's that ignore evidence, that fail to apply or even acknowledge the controlling legal standard, that are absent of legal reasoning. Reversals of immigation decisions are common, particularly when IJ's reject requests for political asylum.

According to an analysis by The New York Times, IJ's who were vetted by the Justice Department during the Goodling/Sampson years disproportionately reject asylum applications. [more ...]

Provided by Frank Rich:

What Obama also should have learned by now is that the press is not his friend.

Of course, Rich is so for Obama, that he hurts him like this:

So while Obama can continue to try to reassure resistant Clinton loyalists in Appalachia that he’s not a bogeyman from Madrassaland . . .

Relatedly, Todd Beeton provides an interesting anecdote from Denver:

On my shuttle to the hotel, I encountered a storm of another kind: an Obama delegate from Illinois and a Clinton delegate from Massachusetts. When she said she was a Hillary delegate, the Obama delegate said facetiously: "Oh they're letting you in here, are they?" She retorted (in a friendly but stern way): "That's what's wrong with Obama folks. You're not reaching out to the Hillary people." It was the second time in as many days that I'd heard the same complaint from a Hillary supporter.

It is this arrogance that could sink Obama's campaign. Obama's supporters I find are his worst enemies now.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

I hate to rain on the parade, but when MSNBC has as its primary news anchor the most biased and ridiculous person in journalism, it ill behooves Left blogs, who fawn all over Olbermann, to complain when Ron Fournier, does what he always does, editorialize the news. ESPECIALLY when he does it in piece labelled as an opinion piece.

As Bob Somerby ably argues, Barack Obama is the Media's choice for this election, and thanks for that. I am happy about it. Indeed, I COUNTED ON IT when I supported him for the nomination. To play the victim now with the Media and Ron Fournier's OPINION piece proves once and for all, the Left blogs have become that which they purport to hate - mindless cheerleaders. Of course Fournier's behavior is reprehensible. But so is Keith Olbermann's and the entirety of NBC News. But no one demands Olbermann resign. It is silly to ask it of Ron Fournier now. But that is all we are now - hypocrites. Like, Paul Krugman, I see, understand and even applaud, the fact that Barack Obama played the silly games of politics regarding John McCain's houses. Politics is stupid. But I do not believe we need to play the same game with ourselves. At least I know I won't.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Yes, I've been brooding about our new VP candidate. The only people I've seen doing back flips over the Biden affair are Joe Biden and John McCain. A million unlikely voters got text messages at 3am with the "The VP Announcement!" Yeah!!! They opened their texts and saw...What? Joe Biden?  Oh. And went back to sleep.

If Joe Biden had his way all these years with the laws he's been writing, Hunter would have been in jail.[more...]