Your turn.

CNN reports:

In a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Sunday night, 47 percent of those questioned are backing Obama with an equal amount supporting the Arizona senator.

Of all the non-Hillary choices, Biden is clearly the best one politically. And even he did not help according to this poll. In discussing polling, too many "analysts" misunderstand the importance of favorability findings. They place great stock in the silly "more likely/less likely" questions pollsters seem to love. Here is the bottom line - Hillary Clinton would have delivered millions of votes for Obama, no one else could:

Everything has been late in this general election. The Democratic nominee was not decided until June. The Democratic vice presidential nominee was not publically announced until August 23. The Democratic Convention does not start until August 25, the latest date in recent history. The Republican vice presidential nominee will not be named until August 29 at the earliest. And the Republicans will hold the latest convention in memory, which will begin ON Labor Day, the traditional kickoff of the Fall campaign.

After the end of the GOP Convention, only 3 weeks will pass before the first Presidential debate on September 26. That is likely to be the most important event of the general election campaign. Only 6 days later, the VP debate will be held on October 2. Just 5 days later comes the second Presidential debate on October 7. And the final Presidential debate comes 8 days after that, on October 15. After that just 20 days remain until the election.

Bottom line, this notion that "it's early" is simply wrong. Folks who say that are thinking in terms of previous electoral calendars. The fierce urgency of now is upon us already in this election.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

We've had some requests for an open thread -- here it is.

The radio stations in Denver are playing great music today. On right now: The Rolling Stones, You Can't Always Get What You Want. My favorite stations: Boulder's KBCO (97.3 FM) and 99.5 FM, The Mountain. They are streamed so you can listen on your computer wherever you are.

I'm not afraid the police are going to get out of control. Things have been smooth sailing here today. And the police on downtown streets aren't dressed in riot gear like they were in Boston.

The weather is gorgeous. Wish you all were here.

Things are running very smooth today in Denver.

Jane of Firedoglake and I drove downtown, parked behind the Denver County courthouse and walked two blocks to the Sheraton where we picked up our DNCC press passes for Monday's convention events at the Pepsi Center. No lines, very speedy. Everyone has to pick up a new pass every morning. For security reasons, each day has a different pass.

Then we hopped on the 16th St. Shuttle Bus which dropped us off on the corner of the Big Tent and we picked up our passes there, also very speedy. Along the way I took a few photos:

• A Code Pink Parade
• A Denver Sheriff's bus that transports prisoners across the street from the courthouse (it was parked and empty)
• Some Denver police officers, not in riot gear like in Boston

[More...]

CNN reports:

Clinton’s team immediately dubbed the ad misleading. "Hillary Clinton's support of Barack Obama is pretty clear,” said Clinton spokeswoman Kathleen Strand. “She has said repeatedly that Barack Obama and she share a commitment to changing the direction of the country, getting us out of Iraq, and expanding access to health care. John McCain doesn't. It's interesting how those remarks didn't make it into his ad."

By Big Tent Democrat

Matt Yglesias makes a good point:

Apparently on ABC this morning Mark Halperin was arguing that housegate would ultimately wind up being bad for . . . Barack Obama because . . . all news is good news for John McCain it “opened the door” to Rezko, Ayers, Wright and other attacks on Obama.

. . . [T]he underlying premises that a door needs to be opened for McCain to deploy those kind of attacks is bizarre. Nothing was stopping the McCain campaign from “going there” . . . They just weren’t doing it because they didn’t think it was the correct time[.] . . . But you’d have to be extraordinarily naive to believe that the McCain campaign was genuinely just not going to mention any of this stuff until Mean Ol’ Barack came along to make fun of the idea of being so rich . . .

Quite so. As silly as the idea that if Hillary Clinton had not mentioned Obama's lack of experience, McCain would not have mentioned it. There was a time when that argument was treated as NOT "extraordinarily naive" and "bizarre." Funny that.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Mason Dixon polls in Colorado and New Mexico provide a mixed bag of news. In Colorado, M-D shows Obama with a 3 point lead, 46-43 and in New Mexico, it shows McCain with a 4 point lead. Earlier I posted on the M-D poll showing McCain with a 7 point lead in Nevada. An earlier Q poll had McCain ahead in Colorado.

The Obama electoral map seems to show Virginia (13 EVs), Iowa (7 EVs), Colorado (9 EVs), New Mexico (5 EVs) and Nevada (5 EVs) as top hopes for shifting red states to blue states. Obama is also competitive in Ohio (20 EVs) (some would argue he is competitive in Florida (27 EVs), I am not one of those people.) McCain is likely aiming at Michigan (17 EVs) and New Hampshire (4 EVs) as pickup opportunities. More . . .

As most of you know by now, the difference maker for me in supporting Barack Obama in the primaries was the fact the he is the Media Darling of the election. Today, in the NYTimes, you see what I mean in Maureen Dowd's column:

[I]t’s hard to believe that John McCain is now in danger of exceeding his credit limit on the equivalent of an American Express black card. His campaign is cheapening his greatest strength — and making a mockery of his already dubious claim that he’s reticent to talk about his P.O.W. experience — by flashing the P.O.W. card to rebut any criticism, no matter how unrelated. The captivity is already amply displayed in posters and TV advertisements.

If anyone but Obama were the Democratic nominee, Dowd and the Media would never have written anything like that. That is what being the Media Darling means. It is a powerful asset for a political candidate.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

It's credentials pick-up day here. I'm off to the Sheraton downtown to pick up my DNCC blogger credentials. Then to the Big Tent to get the credentials for their facility.

The Pepsi Center is but a small part of what is happening here this week. I'll be there at night for some speeches, but since everyone can watch them on TV, it's not what I plan to devote a lot of time to writing about. I'm also more interested in writing about what's going on behind the scenes than what everyone can see for themselves. [More...]

Here's one, via Glenn Reynolds:

Florida Sen. Bill Nelson said he talked with Obama last Tuesday and put forth two names: Biden and Clinton. "He's an excellent choice for Barack in Florida," Nelson said of Biden, noting that he "knows all the players on the world stage," but has never lost touch with his working-class roots. "He's got appeal across the board," Nelson said.

Why? Because folks like Bill Nelson, a Clinton supporter and a fighter for seating the Florida delegation to the convention, have some credibility with Clinton supporters. Look at how Nelson frames the issue. He says he recommended Clinton and Biden. He makes it seem picking Biden is a nod to Clinton. That is the type of framing I would use if I was the Obama campaign.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

andgarden points us to two state polls. A Colorado Q poll:

Sen. Barack Obama enters the Democratic National Convention in a dead heat with Sen. John McCain for Colorado's crucial nine electoral votes, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released today. Sen. McCain has 47 percent to Sen. Obama's 46 percent [McCain was up 2 in a June Q poll].

And Mason Dixon's Nevada poll has McCain by 7:

As both parties aim to put the diverse and growing swing state into play, McCain has taken the lead by a margin of 46 percent to Obama's 39 percent, with 15 percent undecided, according to the poll.

By Big Tent Democrat