M-D Polls: CO, Obama By 3, NM, McCain By 4

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 12:45:05 PM EST
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Mason Dixon polls in Colorado and New Mexico provide a mixed bag of news. In Colorado, M-D shows Obama with a 3 point lead, 46-43 and in New Mexico, it shows McCain with a 4 point lead. Earlier I posted on the M-D poll showing McCain with a 7 point lead in Nevada. An earlier Q poll had McCain ahead in Colorado.

The Obama electoral map seems to show Virginia (13 EVs), Iowa (7 EVs), Colorado (9 EVs), New Mexico (5 EVs) and Nevada (5 EVs) as top hopes for shifting red states to blue states. Obama is also competitive in Ohio (20 EVs) (some would argue he is competitive in Florida (27 EVs), I am not one of those people.) McCain is likely aiming at Michigan (17 EVs) and New Hampshire (4 EVs) as pickup opportunities. More . . .

Here is the 2004 map, when Bush won over Kerry by 286 electoral votes to 252 electoral votes. So, at the minimum, Obama is looking to pick up 18 electoral votes over Kerry's total. Assuming he holds the Kerry states (including New Hampshire and Michigan), Obama seems to have Iowa locked up for 7 electoral votes and would be looking for another 11 electoral votes to win the Presidency. Ohio of course would do it. Virginia would do it. A combination of Colorado and New Mexico or Nevada would do it.

Colorado is much closer than I expected. Virginia is a tossup. Ohio is close. This explains why this contest is considered to be very close now.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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M-D Polls: CO, Obama By 3, NM, McCain By 4 | 29 comments (29 topical)

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What is the sound of one (5.00 / 1) (#2)
by oculus on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 01:15:41 PM EST

hand clapping? Where is andgarden?

I will be happy (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by DaytonDem on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 01:19:23 PM EST

to be incorrect, but Ohio seems out of reach short of a game changing event and Biden was not it.

Biden has apparently had strong (none / 0) (#5)
by oculus on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 01:24:51 PM EST

union support in the past.

[ Parent ]

Then (5.00 / 2) (#6)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 01:28:19 PM EST

Biden should run for president and Obama for VP.

People don't usually vote for the VP.

[ Parent ]

: Verified by AP article this a.m. (none / 0) (#7)
by oculus on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 01:30:31 PM EST

[ Parent ]

I actually like Biden (5.00 / 0) (#8)
by DaytonDem on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 01:32:00 PM EST

myself. He's feisty, which we need, but the Bankruptcy bill of 2005 is a working man's nightmare. Biden voted for it, unless I am mistaken, and that will chill enthusiasm for him although he and Obama are certainly better than the alternative.

[ Parent ]

Excuse me if I'm naive, but (5.00 / 3) (#9)
by miriam on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 01:36:03 PM EST

Given the fact that Obama has been in the news more than any other being in the universe (including the weather), and that Bush is the most unpopular president in recent history: HOW CAN THIS BE? Are the delegates and superdelegates illiterate? Blind, in that they cannot see the handwriting on the wall? Why are they stubbornly backing a candidate who should be miles ahead of his competition this point? How do they expect him to change this by November?

What's really concerning (5.00 / 2) (#10)
by andgarden on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 01:46:59 PM EST

is that McCain could lose IA and NM and still win.

In other words (5.00 / 3) (#11)
by andgarden on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 01:49:32 PM EST

It is absolutely essential that Obama keep Ohio competitive.

If this becomes a race for Colorado, he will lose, and his cash advantage won't be enough.

[ Parent ]

The good news for Obama (none / 0) (#12)
by andgarden on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 01:52:35 PM EST

Is that Virginia is very competitive. PPP finds him a few ticks ahead again today.

[ Parent ]

: VA is out (none / 0) (#30)
by Ga6thDem on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 05:10:07 PM EST

of reach for Obama. He's polling like Jesse Helms did against Harvey Gant in NC. Obama's going to lose so much of VA that doing well in the cities won't help him one bit. Jim Webb was a much stronger candidate than Obama in 2006 and still just squeaked into the Senate.
The Biden pick tells me that internal polling shows that Obama is having problems in the rust belt.

[ Parent ]

I looks like the start of the fourth quarter... (5.00 / 2) (#17)
by EL seattle on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 02:13:36 PM EST

... in a 7-7 tied football game. Neither team has pulled away in a lead, but neither team has lost yet, either. Most interestingly, neither team has really scored much at all so far.

And it's not because they're both playing such brilliant defense, really.

Plenty of time for momentum changes though:

Dem. convention next.
Then Rep. convention.
Then the final campaign.
Then the last week of the campaign.

I think this could easily go either way, depending on the weather.

This morning on MTP or Face The (1.00 / 1) (#1)
by PssttCmere08 on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 01:06:10 PM EST

Nation showed obama behind in NM and he's 7 pts behind in NV...I thought it was the mason/dixon poll.

It is (none / 0) (#3)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 01:18:23 PM EST

[ Parent ]

Obama in NM (none / 0) (#16)
by Kate Stone on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 02:12:35 PM EST

Last week McCain was in Las Cruses, Hillary in Espanola, and Obama in Abuquerque. They bypass progressive Santa Fe which is solidly behind Obama. The Republicans are here a lot including way too much of Dick Cheney raising money in ABQ. The Republicans do not want to lose Domenici's Senate seat which is now up for grabs between the progressive Tom Udall and the knuckle dragger, Steve Pearce. Next week Mr. 9/11 himself, Rudy the G, will be here stumping for a cop who is running for an open Congressional seat in the southern part of the state. Every effort is being made by progressives to turn this state blue in November and every effort is being made by conservatives to hold tight to what they have.

[ Parent ]

Where are you in NM? (none / 0) (#22)
by Teresa on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 02:26:07 PM EST

I'm an ENMU grad. I lived in Clovis for four years. Northern NM is so pretty.

[ Parent ]

: I am in ... (5.00 / 1) (#27)
by Kate Stone on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 03:39:36 PM EST

Santa Fe

[ Parent ]

Obama -1 in latest Denver Post /Quinnipiac poll (none / 0) (#13)
by MileHi Hawkeye on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 01:57:10 PM EST

http://tinyurl.com/3gsry3

A one point gain in the last month.

Indeed, but being behind (none / 0) (#15)
by andgarden on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 02:07:51 PM EST

is bad. Republicans still have a pretty high ceiling in CO, so Obama needs to start being ahead.

[ Parent ]

They've hit their ceiling IMO. (none / 0) (#18)
by MileHi Hawkeye on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 02:19:52 PM EST

We'll see what next month brings with:

Convention
McCain's stupid statements on the water compact (he can no longer run as a "citizen of the West" here)
Biden

Plus Udall is running +10 even with tons of anti-Udall negative ads.

[ Parent ]

Well, well, well...too little, too late? (none / 0) (#14)
by americanincanada on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 02:06:35 PM EST

What might this mean for Florida polls and/or the convention vote?

Full Voting Rights Restored

My prediction (none / 0) (#19)
by Prabhata on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 02:20:43 PM EST

McCain will take CO, NV, OH and VA and of course FL.

Obama will lose the election by a wide margin.

: Morning Prabhata (none / 0) (#25)
by sarahfdavis on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 03:09:59 PM EST

Pretty day here in "frisco"!
So when will the polls start to move in your opinion?
Or will it stay close up until the end?

[ Parent ]

I have never thought (none / 0) (#20)
by tlkextra on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 02:23:24 PM EST

Obama would win Colorado even though here in North West Denver, they seem to be more Democratic. But, I still see several Hillary yard signs out (I took mine down after being yelled at by an AA teen neighbor). Those who still have their signs out may have taken offense at the attacks of President Clinton - the one Democrat to take Colorado in the last forty years. I do expect their to be a bounce in the Polls here because of the Convention, but do not expect it to last. On the other hand, Denverites have gotten annoyed at events that have previously shut down the City. Despite the assurances, after trying to go Downtown yesterday, it's officially a mess. Unfortunately, visitors may not get the full chance to see the great aspects of living in Colorado.

: "their" should be "there" (none / 0) (#21)
by tlkextra on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 02:24:45 PM EST

hope that's the only typo

[ Parent ]

Colorado (none / 0) (#24)
by Nan on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 03:02:34 PM EST

McCain will win Colorado.

Kerry also seemed competitive in Colorado during summer months but lost it in November.

McCain will also win Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Virginia, Missouri, Indiana, New Mexico.

If he picks someone like Ridge he will also win Pennsylvania.

Obama's solid base (none / 0) (#26)
by Zeno on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 03:37:17 PM EST

Over at electoral-vote.com, there's a graph of "solid" electoral votes -- those in which the leader has at least a five-point margin. Obama's share of solid votes has been creeping up till now it's at 260. This aligns with Bit Tent Democrat's calculations about the what else Obama needs to clinch the election. I did some similar crunching this morning and see many opportunities. [link]

Biden (none / 0) (#28)
by Nan on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 04:11:45 PM EST

I don't get how Biden is supposed to help Obama.

If Biden had any electoral appeal we would have seen it in primaries. If he couldn't win votes for himself how can he win votes for someone else>

Biden will not help Obama in the mid west. (none / 0) (#29)
by fly on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 04:37:39 PM EST

I was a caucus co-captain in DesMoines Iowa and it was a large caucus of approx 375-400 people ..Biden had 2 people show up to caucus for him. Obama's caucus people were all bussed in...2 bus loads.