In line with other polls released today (see, e.g, today's CBS poll, which has McCain 46-44), the ABC/WaPo poll shows a tight race, McCain 49-47. The highlight however is the big move among white women:

White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama's favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that's one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences. The other, also to McCain's advantage, is in the battleground Midwest, where he's moved from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge.

In essence, Obama opened the door by not picking Hillary Clinton and McCain walked through it. McCain's Palin gamble clearly has worked. He is in the game. And he would not have been if he had not chosen Palin. And McCain would not have chosen Palin if Obama had picked Clinton.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

You may have to turn the volume up or double click on the video to get to You Tube where you can click the "watch in high quality" button. It's Don Henley singing "Dirty Laundry" at the 1993 MTV Inaugural Ball which he most appropriately dedicates to "President and Mrs. Clinton." I made the video from the VHS tape I recorded of the gala in 1993.

Media bias against the Clintons is nothing new.

This is an open thread as I'm still at work.

Sarah Palin said:

[T]he Republican vice presidential nominee claimed that lending giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had "gotten too big and too expensive to the taxpayers." The companies, as McClatchy reported, "aren't taxpayer funded but operate as private companies. The takeover may result in a taxpayer bailout during reorganization."

(Emphasis supplied.) Palin issued standard issue Republican nonsensical cant (See Curve, Laffer) on matters economic - which, as usual, is utter nonsense. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will NOW become "too expensive for taxpayers" because the government is going to bail them out. That said, the bailout plan is probably a good idea, as Krugman explains.

Is this the great gaffe of the century? Not really. To me it is standard issue GOP BS. Which seems the stronger political point to me. McCain-Palin = Bush's Third Term.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

What a surprise for me to log on this morning and see all the venom directed at MSNBC and Keith Olbermann. And, for the second time in a week, liberals at odds with liberals in the blogosphere.

I will make one attempt to redirect the conversation and then I'm going back to work.

I do not think Keith Olbermann is a "hack," partisan or otherwise. I do not think MSNBC relieved him and Chris Matthews of anchoring duties at upcoming debates and election night due to pressure from conservatives or politicians.

I think the removal action was the result of pressure from journalists, other media professionals and quite possibly advertisers who convinced MSNBC that the partisan coverage of live news events was tarnishing not just MSNBC's, but also NBC's reputation as a credible news organization. The issue, as I said in my earlier post, is the distinction between anchoring of live news events and talk shows. [More...]

Like the Ras poll, the CNN poll shows a tied race:

A new national poll taken entirely after the end of the Republican convention suggests the race for the White House between John McCain and Barack Obama is dead even. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll out Monday afternoon has McCain and Obama tied at 48 percent each among registered voters questioned. Three percent of voters are undecided in the survey, which was conducted Friday through Sunday.

This is where we are at now. Obama will likely slide a few points ahead by the end of the week as the GOP Convention bounce fades. It remains Obama's race to lose imo.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Yes, you have read it here, but Howard Wolfson is right:

Democrats are running against John McCain, not Sarah Palin. Running against Gov. Palin instead of Senator McCain would be a mistake -- ultimately voters will make their assessments based on the strength and weaknesses of the top of the tickets. If anything, Democrats should be talking about McCain-Bush, not McCain-Palin. Every day we are focused on Palin is a day we are not amplifying the Obama campaign's message that Senator McCain simply represents four more years of President Bush.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Sorry to keep harping on this but it bothers me when even the usually clear eyed Glenn Greenwald gets into the Olbermann is God act. Greenwald writes:

The irrefutable fact is that nothing attracts ratings for MSNBC -- and nothing has attracted ratings in the entire history of that channel -- the way that Olbermann does. Yet here is MSNBC removing him from the anchor position . . . That is extraordinary for a media company to publicly embarrass, diminish and tarnish its own principal asset.

It is extraordinary . . . and RIGHT! Here's why, in Glenn's own words:

Contra to Jeralyn's excellent take, over at Daily Kos, BarbinMD is upset that NBC dumped Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews as news anchors for MSNBC's political coverage (Olbermann of course will continue his opinion show Countdown, going head to head against his right wing counterpart, Fox's Bill O'Reilly, and will be correctly labelled as a pundit in MSNBC's political coverage.)

This goes to an ongoing tension I see in the so-called Media criticism in the Left blogs, or rather lack thereof. We ALL know Keith Olbermann is a partisan hack. No one in their right mind would deny it. Which is fine as far as it goes. But let's not pretend he is a journalist. He NEVER should have been anchoring MSNBC's political coverage. He should have been in the pundits' slots. As should Chris Matthews (and Matthews was terrible LONG BEFORE this election. He was terrible in the 2000 and 2004 elections as well, but against Democrats then.) These two men are not journalists. It is that simple.

More . . .

Ras' first full post GOP convention poll is out:

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after the Republican National Convention, McCain attracts 47% of the vote while Obama earns 46%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 47%.

Ras weights his polls by party ID so he takes out the "voter enthusiasm" variable that Gallup LV polls are plagued with (Gallup polls swing as wildly as any you will find.) McCain by 1 seems about right to me right now. By midweek, Obama will push in front narrowly imo.

Peter Brown, the Quinnipiac pollster, writes about the McCain/Palin campaign against the Media:

Whether the charges [of Media bias] are true or not, they have energized the GOP voter base -– which doesn’t need an excuse to hate the news media -– and the message seems to be resonating among non-Republicans as well. A Rasmussen Reports poll taken before Gov. Palin took the podium showed that 51% of voters surveyed said they felt reporters were trying to hurt her candidacy. Among self-described independents, 49% felt that way. One in four said they were more likely to vote for her because of the coverage, while 18% said they were less likely.

All true, but Brown ignores one other important factor - charges of Media bias resonate, with strong merit, with Clinton supporters. Attacking the Media implicitly appeals to Hillary Clinton supporters as well.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

The day John McCain chose Sarah Palin as his running mate I wrote:

Believe it or not, if not taking the Romney path and hoping for some campaign event to change the math, I think Palin is McCain's best bet. It is a gamble, but when you are going to lose if you do not gamble, you might as well take the shot. I think McCain is taking a clear eyed gamble.

For now, McCain's gamble has put him in the game. But the fundamentals of this election remain the same. If Obama can make this election about whether we continue George Bush's disastrous policies by choosing McCain or whether we change the direction of the country, he will win comfortably. Right now, that message has been lost. Time to get it back. More . . .

The LA Times reports on Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's leadership style and follow-through, based on interviews of individuals involved in Alaskan politics and Government. While she's praised for some things, she's raked up criticism in many areas. Key points those interviewed made:

She often failed to follow through on her initiatives, including ethics reform.

Yet a strange thing happened on the ethics issue once Palin became governor: She appeared to lose interest in completing the task of legislating comprehensive reform, some who supported the cleanup say.

The ethics bill she offered was so incomplete that its supporters had to undertake a significant rewrite. Moreover, when it came to building support for the bill, politicians in both parties say the new governor was often unaccountably absent from the fray.

A similar criticism was levied against her on the oil rebate checks: [More...]