If you do not want to talk about the issues I raise in my posts below, here is an Open Thread.

I am not sure what the House is going to do on the bailout and to me that is the most interesting story of the day, but I have nothing new to tell you.

I am out until late this afternoon. I am not sure of J's and TChris' schedule.

Update (TL): I'm off to the dentist in Boulder to fix a tooth I chipped a corner off of yesterday. (At least it's in the back.) If I just need a filling, I'll be back in a few hours. If it's a crown, I'll be back before the debate.

DKos/R2000 (9/29-10/1) has Obama up 11, 51-40. Battleground (9/28-10/1) has Obama up 5, 49-44. CBS (9/27-30) has Obama up 9, 50-41. Gallup(9/28-30) has Obama up 4. WaPo (9/27-29) has Obama up 4, 50-46. AP (9/27-29) has Obama up 7, 48-41. Ipsos/McClatchey (9/26-29) has Obama up 3, 48-45. Time (9/26-29) has Obama up 7, 50-43. Hotline (9/28-30) has Obama up 5, 47-42. Ras (9/28-30) has Obama up 6, 51-45.

Another day and McCain needs a game changer. Starting tonight with the Palin-Biden debate, continuing to the Obama- McCain debate on October 7, these 5 days may be McCain's last chance.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Josh Marshall writes:

Immediately after saying what a terrible decision Roe was, Palin got a follow-up question from Couric about whether she believes there's a constitutional 'right to privacy'. And Palin said, yes. Now, narrowly speaking, you can believe in a constitutional right to privacy and also oppose Roe. But the right to privacy, as Couric says in the interview, is one of the cornerstones of Roe. And in the public debate yes or no on the right to privacy is something pretty close to a proxy for your position on abortion rights.

This is wrong. Republicans and anti-Roe advocates learned from the Robert Bork experience - you acknowledge a right to privacy in the liberty clause of the 14th Amendment without conceding an inch on Roe. Anyone who watched John Roberts and Samuel Alito in their confirmation hearings should know this. Marshall has misread the new political rhetoric from the Right on this. The rise of Dred Scott as the dogwhistle on Roe is a result of the need to replace the attack on the right to privacy and Griswold. [More...]

Some unsolicited advice for Sarah Palin. And not of the Rovian concern troll variety. Ignore the handlers. Do not worry about the details of your general answers. Do not try to be a wonk.

Palin's strength is her personality and personna. She is not the person in the room with all the knowledge obviously. She will never convince anyone of that. Heck, she might want to expressly avow that.

The politician she most reminds me of is not Dan Quayle, it is Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan was the most ignorant person I can remember to have ever held high public office. He was wrong on the facts almost every time. But he was confident in his beliefs. He was incredibly wrong about them, but as a politician, he projected a confidence and disregard for the pointy heads that had great appeal. Trying to stuff her with facts, which is what the McCain people seem to have done, was a great mistake. The Joe Sixpack line she delivered the other day may have been a signal that the McCain camp has woken up to this fact.

More . . .

Yesterday I wrote that if we start seeing personal attack ads in the battleground states, it's a sign McCain knows it's just about over for him. Looks like the same goes for his supporters.

Via Politico, it's begun.

The conservative Judicial Confirmation Network goes up today with an ad reminding voters in two key states about Obama's ties to Tony Rezko, Bill Ayers and Jeremiah Wright. Representatives for the group say it will be a "$1 million ad and grassroots effort" around the veep debate tomorrow and the opening of the new Supreme Court session Monday.

Bruce Springsteen has joined the campaign trail with several college and stadium appearances scheduled:

• Eastern Michigan University
• A free acoustic set at Oestrike Stadium.
• Saturday at a Philadelphia rally
• Sunday at Ohio State University.
• New York City (with Billy Joel) on Oct. 16.

It's all part of Obama's voter registration drive.

This is an open thread.

In the new CBS News poll, as in other polls, voters now have a more negative view of Gov. Sarah Palin. The poll also finds:

• 2 out of 3 women who formerly supported Hillary Clinton now support Barack Obama.

• Among women, Palin's favorability rating has dropped 17 points in three weeks. Her unfavorability rating has increased 15 points.

Details below:

CBS aired the Katie Couric interview of Sen. Joe Biden and Gov. Sarah Palin on Roe v. Wade. The transcript is here.

Think Progress has this portion where they discussed Supreme Court cases and Palin wouldn't or couldn't name any. Transcript below:

The Senate is about to vote on the bailout bill. Here's a thread to discuss bailout issues and the vote.

Update: So far it's 55 to 18. Looks like it will pass easily.

It's a done deal: It passed 74 to 25. Vrey few Democrats voted against it. Among them: Feingold, Johnson, Landrieu, Tester, Nelson,, Stabenow, Wyden, Cantwell, Dorgan.

Update: Here comes the self-congratulations: Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell are giving speeches about how great the Senate is. Reid says Chris Dodd did a yeoman's job. Reid said he was Dodd's lieutenant.

Sorry to contradict Jeralyn (yet again), but it's the economy. So says CBS:

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama leads GOP rival John McCain 49 percent to 40 percent among registered voters in a new CBS News poll. The nine-point spread marks an increase of four percentage points in Obama's lead from a CBS News/New York Times survey taken last week. Obama also leads by nine points among likely voters, 50 percent to 41 percent.

Why? It's the economy, stupid:

My view in a nutshell: Gov. Sarah Palin is the reason John McCain is behind in the polls in the battleground states. Yes, the issue on people's minds is the economy. Who would take a chance on having her in charge of economic policy if something happened to McCain?

There's not enough difference between McCain and Obama on the bailout bill. It's Palin that is killing him, particularly, I think, in Florida. No one except evangelicals want an evangelical with extremist views in the White House.

Even if Palin doesn't stumble tomorrow night, the debate won't help McCain .

Unless there's a huge terror or national security threat, areas in which McCain still outpolls Obama, he's history. And Palin sank him. [More...]

Via Kos, CNN/Opinion Research state polling:

Florida

McCain (R) 47 (48)
Obama (D) 51 (48)

Minnesota

McCain (R) 43 (41)
Obama (D) 54 (53)

Missouri

McCain (R) 48 (50)
Obama (D) 49 (45)

More...