CBS Poll: Economy Pushes Obama To 9 Point Lead

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:06:03 PM EST
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Sorry to contradict Jeralyn (yet again), but it's the economy. So says CBS:

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama leads GOP rival John McCain 49 percent to 40 percent among registered voters in a new CBS News poll. The nine-point spread marks an increase of four percentage points in Obama's lead from a CBS News/New York Times survey taken last week. Obama also leads by nine points among likely voters, 50 percent to 41 percent.

Why? It's the economy, stupid:

Neither candidate wins majority approval for their role in handling the financial crisis. But forty-four percent of registered voters approve of Obama's handling of the financial crisis, nine points higher than McCain. Forty-six percent of those surveyed, meanwhile, disapprove of McCain's handling of the crisis, compared to 32 percent for Obama.

Obama also continues to lead in voter confidence in handling the economy. Half of the registered voters surveyed say they are not at all or not too confident in McCain's ability to steer the economy, 11 percentage points more than say the same of Obama. Just 15 percent are "very confident" in McCain's ability when it comes to the economy, 11 points fewer than say the same of his rival.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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CBS Poll: Economy Pushes Obama To 9 Point Lead | 53 comments (53 topical)

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McCain is at the brink IMO (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by andgarden on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:10:52 PM EST

It occurs to me that he could come back like Al Gore did in 2000, but it seems not likely.

Do you think they'll get really dirty now? (none / 0) (#6)
by Teresa on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:15:49 PM EST

They don't usually give up so easily.

I don't know what is up but my nephew just got back two months ago from 14 months in Iraq. His brigade and another just got put on alert today to be prepared to go back to Iraq in January!

[ Parent ]

They get as dirty as they need to (5.00 / 1) (#18)
by andgarden on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:37:12 PM EST

to try and prevent downticket disaster. They may not be able to.

If the RNC writes off McCain, we'll know we're in for a huge night.

60 in the Senate is back on the table IMO.

[ Parent ]

60? (none / 0) (#31)
by CoralGables on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:04:36 PM EST

60 in the Senate is back on the table IMO.

For months I was very comfortable with the belief that a 4 seat pickup in the Senate was both a given and possibly the max. After the events of the last week it looks like a bump to a six seat gain is a strong possibility with:

PickUps
Alaska
Colorado
New Mexico
North Carolina
Oregon
Virginia

TossUps
Minnesota
New Hampshire

and could these states really be on the bubble for a Senate pickup?
Kentucky
Mississippi
Georgia

And the only Dem Senate seat that was ever in doubt, Landrieu in Louisiana, looks as if they are saving their money and stopped polling after Landrieu came in at +17 in the last one.

[ Parent ]

Georgia, Mississippi, Minnesota, Kentucky (5.00 / 1) (#33)
by andgarden on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:09:07 PM EST

Those are the races that will tell us if we demoralized the Republicans. I expect none of them, but will also rule none out.

[ Parent ]

I think we're looking for moral. . . (5.00 / 1) (#34)
by LarryInNYC on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:17:04 PM EST

not actual, victories in those states.

[ Parent ]

you are sooo not from around here (none / 0) (#37)
by TruthMatters on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:48:17 PM EST

Minnesota is blue people, any poll that tells you we are closer then 5 pts is wrong. Minnesota is blue blue blue blue blue.

we have the longest running streak and we ain't losing that people.

Minnesota is blue

[ Parent ]

: Um, SENATE RACE (5.00 / 1) (#38)
by andgarden on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:53:05 PM EST

[ Parent ]

The moment Lehman, Frannie, Freddie (5.00 / 1) (#5)
by tigercourse on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:15:41 PM EST

and AIG went south, this election was basically over.

Serendipity, not the Economy (5.00 / 0) (#23)
by Prana on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:46:40 PM EST

As I said in Jeralyn's thread it was Serendipity that boosted Obama not the economy as he never made a compelling case for the economy prior to the meltdown. His blank slate on the economy is just winning out over McCain disastrous campaign he is running.

Obama is no real winner here it is just a case of who screwed up less and we all know that the Fence Sitting Obama never takes a real stand on anything - not for long anyway. Who would have thought that riding Bush's coattails by endorsing Bush's plan would get Obama the lead? On second thought it really is not too surprising is it? Republicans have Great ideas remember?

[ Parent ]

Serendipity (5.00 / 1) (#41)
by cal1942 on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 10:28:05 PM EST

is the economy. Obama doesn't really have to say much about it. The administration acknowledged there was a crisis and that was enough to confirm both fears and experience.

The American people have pinned the crisis state of the economy on the Republicans.

Many people may not grasp the perfidy of laissez faire but they know that the GOP is business oriented and they know that private business laid an egg and have gotten away with murder.

McCain can call himself a maverick all he wants. The people know he's a Republican and they're justifiably blaming Republicans for the mess.

[ Parent ]

Serendipity is not the economy (none / 0) (#44)
by Prana on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 11:31:41 PM EST

Serendipity is "Luck" by definition.

Like I said Obama has never made a compelling case on the economy. And right now he is far from acting like a leader and taking the bull by the horns and leading us out of the wilderness. He is basically doing nothing which evidently is fine by you. Get used to it.

[ Parent ]

Yes (none / 0) (#45)
by cal1942 on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 12:23:32 AM EST

lucky that the Bush administration acknowledged that an economic crisis was brewing.

As for the rationale of the timing involved in the Bush/Paulsen proposal there are many possible explanations. But one thing is sure is that this time the use of the bullhorn increased the fear that has been bulding.

I at no time said that I was pleased with Obama regarding the economy. I was an Edwards and then a Clinton supporter who was and is not terribly happy with Obama. I'll be voting for him while holding my nose. You seem miffed because I don't argree with you regarding Pallin's impact.

I was assessing the trend of the election and pointing out that the American people are correctly blaming Republicans for the mess we're in and Obama has to say little in this regard. The electorate knows who put us here. Economics is the most powerful force in elections and Sarah Palin doesn't change that age old dynamic one bit.

[ Parent ]

: Oops (none / 0) (#46)
by cal1942 on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 12:27:50 AM EST

you didn't mention Palin. Have entered several comments today regarding her non-impact on the campaign.
You must be miffed about something else I said. Oh yeah, I said that Obama didn't have to say too much about the economy.

[ Parent ]

La la la. . . (5.00 / 1) (#9)
by LarryInNYC on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:19:17 PM EST

la la la (ten points) la la la la la la (ten points) la la la.

10 points, based on Palin plus the economy? (none / 0) (#48)
by oculus on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 12:40:40 AM EST

[ Parent ]

That's right. . . (none / 0) (#51)
by LarryInNYC on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 06:23:13 AM EST

although, really, I think it's due to intrinsic factors. I was predicting ten points before Palin came along, and before the economic meltdown of the last two weeks.

[ Parent ]

: Suitably vague. (none / 0) (#53)
by oculus on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 10:32:47 AM EST

[ Parent ]

There can be no question palin is hurting mccain (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by pluege on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:49:32 PM EST

mccain's erratic, irrational activity in regards to the economy have also hurt him badly in addition to palin. But the economic crises was also an opportunity for mccain to look and act presidential. Instead, he acted like a buffoon. If mccain had handled the economic crises better and Obama bumbled it, the numbers could be reversed. Repeat, its not the economy per se hurting mccain (in addition to the palin disaster), but rather mccains' RESPONSE to the economic crises juxtaposed to Obama's.

Surely the denizens of Talk Left can and are more sophisticated than simple sloganeering.

Just curious (5.00 / 1) (#29)
by patriotgames on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:55:14 PM EST

nt to start a flame war or a 1 fest, but What exactly has Obama DONE on the economy???

: His comments... (5.00 / 3) (#40)
by Salo on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 10:22:37 PM EST

...about the New Deal and Reaganomics in his book do not reassure me that he's got his heart in the task of re-regulation.

[ Parent ]

why is it you both never just note (none / 0) (#1)
by TruthMatters on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:07:49 PM EST

that you are both right?

The economy mixed with their doubts about McCain, and Obama having a good showing at the debate and passing the C-i-C test.

voters Obama as the safer choice.

it doesn't have to be either or.

You answered your own question. You (none / 0) (#2)
by Teresa on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:10:05 PM EST

didn't mention Palin.

[ Parent ]

well, I think (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by TruthMatters on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:13:50 PM EST

Palin creates any doubts people have about McCain.

they see her as grossly under qualified and it makes them question McCain's choice and add that his behavior during this crisis, and his judgment is in serious question.

The worse Palin does, the more McCain's judgment becomes suspect.

[ Parent ]

Look (5.00 / 2) (#8)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:18:32 PM EST

This lead happened during the meltdown, not during Palin. Let's face it, no one is paying attention to Palin at all.

[ Parent ]

really? (5.00 / 2) (#16)
by Jeralyn on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:35:56 PM EST

No one's paying attention? In the car today listening to CNN and Fox, she was every story. She's totally dominated it.

You've tuned her out, and believe no one should pay attention, but the polls and news say otherwise.

[ Parent ]

Did Mitch McConnell and Saxby Chambliss (5.00 / 2) (#20)
by andgarden on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:38:42 PM EST

drop to parity with their Democratic opponents in the course of 10 days because of Sarah Palin?

[ Parent ]

That... (none / 0) (#32)
by CoralGables on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:08:05 PM EST

as we both know, is the economy. (I always want to type stupid after that phrase)

[ Parent ]

Blaming her might be the (none / 0) (#39)
by Salo on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 10:17:53 PM EST

only way the GOP can salvage their pride in time for 2010.

[ Parent ]

: Well, if Obama doesn't get down and serious (none / 0) (#43)
by nycstray on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 11:22:03 PM EST

with straightening out this mess we're in the second he gets into office, 2010 could be the start of a reversal.

[ Parent ]

Media and bloggers do not count (5.00 / 0) (#21)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:42:50 PM EST

if voters do not pay attention.

Indeed, the piling on on Palin DURING the crisis is just backfiring.

Palinpalooza DURING the crisis gives Palin a great opportunity tomorrow night.

To talk about what people really care about and basically attack Palinpalooza for forgetting ordinary Americans.

We'll never agree on this and frankly, I think the evidence is in - but have it J.

You will certainly be doing so tomorrow night.

[ Parent ]

I have been working (5.00 / 1) (#35)
by standingup on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:22:14 PM EST

at the home office of a medium sized insurance company all week. The majority of them are Republicans. I know of one libertarian but the rest are very conservative Republicans. Three weeks ago Palin was the buzz.

This week? It is all about the economy and they are not happy. They could care less about Sarah Palin at the moment.

This is shaping up to be a very bad year for them. A terrible storm season had already blown any hope for profit sharing. Now they have taken big losses in their 401K accounts and understand the crisis is also impacting their corporate investments too. Palin is certainly off their radar.

[ Parent ]

No attention at all. (none / 0) (#10)
by LarryInNYC on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:20:41 PM EST

Why, she hasn't been on TV, or figured into even Republican commentary -- and certainly parodies of her are not among the most watched video clips on the internet.

[ Parent ]

No voter is paying attention (5.00 / 2) (#13)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:32:57 PM EST

Bloggers and some Media types are paying attention. Not voters.

Here's my prediction - less than 40 million watch tomorrow night.

What do you thibk of that?

[ Parent ]

If no voter is paying attention. . . (none / 0) (#19)
by LarryInNYC on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:38:12 PM EST

to what do you attribute the large negative movement in her polling?

[ Parent ]

MCCain's negatives drive hers (5.00 / 2) (#22)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:44:52 PM EST

BTW, is Biden's postives shooting through the roof.

How many time do I have to tell you - the most important day ofg this election was two Mondays ago - when McCain said " the fundamentals of the economy are strong."

Now tell me how Palin is the reason for that?

But you folsk have your fun.

I just hope Palin does not have a good night tomorrow night because THAT COULD change the game - thanks to Palinpalooza.

[ Parent ]

: Wow. (5.00 / 1) (#26)
by LarryInNYC on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:53:14 PM EST

MCCain's negatives drive hers
Hoookay.

the most important day ofg this election was two Mondays ago
I don't disagree. I think Obama has caught a number of breaks -- the economy and Palin being the two biggest. And I think there are a number of intrinsic factors in his favor (demeanor, height, age, and speaking voice among them). And I think he and his campaign are responsible for some of the positive polling (organization, voter registration).
All those things can be true. The economy can be important -- it can even be the most important thing -- while it is also true that Palin is hurting McCain.
And it can remain true that Palin is hurting McCain even if some of the left-blog excess about her isn't helpful. Those things -- the things that voters really aren't paying attention to (fundamentally false claims about her trying to push creation teaching, or not selling the state plane, or whatever) aren't what's hurting McCain. It's Palin's obvious incompetence and, more to the point, McCain's Bush-like incompetence in selecting her, that's doing it.

[ Parent ]
: PS. (none / 0) (#27)
by LarryInNYC on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:54:48 PM EST

Ten points.
Just sayin'

[ Parent ]

Hm (none / 0) (#25)
by Steve M on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:50:04 PM EST

I will take the over for a beer.

[ Parent ]

I think that (none / 0) (#30)
by Prana on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:56:28 PM EST

is approximately 35%+ of the voting population which should be a concern if she does well or holds her own. 35% no doubt of mostly undecided or changeable voters could make a big difference. In fact if only 20% of that 35% were to shift to McCain he would be tied once again. 20%!

[ Parent ]

Can't both (none / 0) (#14)
by Lil on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:33:09 PM EST

the economy and Palin be a factor? (I'm starting to see Palin as a defacto Bush).

On another note, you started my day this morning on a very happy note and now ending my day on a happy note too. Not many people I can say have had that kind of affect on me. wink. Hope the polls are as good tomorrow, (although Gallup made me a little nervous today).

[ Parent ]

: Could be? (5.00 / 1) (#15)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:35:35 PM EST

Am I saying what is and what the polling is saying is what is.
IF you want to pretend it is Palin, well you are welcome to think that.
The evidence is entirely to the contrary.

[ Parent ]

Ding! (5.00 / 2) (#7)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:18:01 PM EST

Yes, but Palin (none / 0) (#11)
by TruthMatters on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:21:45 PM EST

is the only thing keeping this campaign afloat. the money the excitment its all for her.

the day she is gone or found completely unacceptable, is the day the conseravative base is done with the election.

and when that happens no more hoping that the economy will stay bad enough for Obama to ride it to a victory.

I am not saying it possible. but the day bloggers like Jeralyn actually make Palin completely unacceptable is the day Obama wins.

and its not like we can't do both like we have been for the last 2 weeks.

[ Parent ]

And if Palin does well on Thursday? (5.00 / 2) (#12)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:31:59 PM EST

Why play this game? We do not need to say another word about Palin. It is dangerously unnecessary to martyr Palin.

Palinpalooza was wrongheaded and remains wrongheaded.

[ Parent ]

: I 100% believe that (5.00 / 0) (#17)
by TruthMatters on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:35:58 PM EST

if Palin knocks everyone socks off, McCain will get a nice bounce. if women can feel comfortable with her then they can relate to her again, and then McCain can narrow the gap again.
we will see, I say if she does well, McCain starts to rebound.

[ Parent ]
: Palin (5.00 / 2) (#42)
by cal1942 on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 10:34:34 PM EST

has become an amusing sideshow. Her presence on the GOP ticket means nothing.
It's the economy. The American people have justifiably identified the Republicans at fault and nothing drives elections like the economy.
Forget Sarah Palin. She's not a factor in this election.

[ Parent ]
: "Martyr." Right on. (none / 0) (#47)
by oculus on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 12:38:14 AM EST

[ Parent ]

Deregulation=Republicans (economy) (none / 0) (#28)
by Stellaaa on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:54:49 PM EST

It's over. People don't want to hear that again. They want regulations. At this point Obama can only lose if some miracle happens in the economy: Not a chance.

Look, even the older voters are dumping the Republicans, they are terrified of their retirement. This hit home, it's not theoretical anymore. Most Americans lost a minimum of 25-28 % in value of portfolios.

So, is it in Obama's best interest (none / 0) (#49)
by oculus on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 12:41:58 AM EST

for the economy to be tumultous through the GE?

[ Parent ]

: yeah... (none / 0) (#52)
by Stellaaa on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 10:13:25 AM EST

cause the undecideds like neither candidate, they just want to change parties. (change..change change...) no change parties.

[ Parent ]

I Got Polled Yesterday (none / 0) (#36)
by john horse on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:32:42 PM EST

I did my part to contribute to the Quinnipiac poll result showing Obama ahead 51 to 43 in Florida.

Obama leading McCain in Florida. Who would have thunk it two months ago?

I believe Obama will lose his lead because of (none / 0) (#50)
by suzieg on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 01:55:04 AM EST

the larded up bail out - it was hard enough to swallow at $700 billions but I got choked when I heard $150 billions was added to it. In true conscience, I cannot support anyone who pushed for this bail out especially now that it has ballooned to this obscene amount - Obama and the democrats accepting this bail out the way it is now shows me that they are just as reckless if not worse to endorse this bill when the country is basically broke. We are told in one hand, that we have no money but on the other hand, they openly accumulate more debt - it's completely absurb and irresponsible!