ABC News has an analysis of the battleground states today.

Eight states that could go either way -- Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina -- hold 111 of the 270 electoral votes needed for either candidate to win the presidency.

Whether those red states will turn blue is yet to be determined, but according to the latest polls, Obama has a 52-45 percent advantage in those battlegrounds. States like Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina, previously leaning in McCain's favor, are now considered toss-ups.

John McCain needs every state Bush carried in 2004 plus a big one Kerry carried -- like Pennsylvania. [More...]

Big Tent Democrat believes that:

The country is rejecting Republicanism and extreme conservatism, not Sarah Palin's "qualifications." The mandate is for a change away from extreme Republicanism and conservatism, not a rejection of Sarah Palin the person.

I agree that Sarah Palin "the person" is not being rejected. But her qualifications are being rejected, and as CNN reports today, her lack of qualifications are the number one reason voters are rejecting John McCain:

Update: (TL) It's 9:30 am MST and we already have 14 posts up today. This may be a record for us. The front page only holds 15, so you may want to click the "more" button at the bottom of the page. I'm off to the jail now and won't be back until late this afternoon.

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The New York Times has a nice internet feature accessing their Presidential endorsements through the years - back to their 1860 endorsment of Abraham Lincoln. It is interesting to see the discussion of the historic issues in real time. Fun fact - The Times endorsed Wendell Willkie over FDR in 1940.

This is an Open Thread.

In polls released in the past 24 hours, DKos/R2000 has Obama leading by 12, 52-40. WaPo tracker has Obama by 11, 54-43. CBS/NYTimes poll has Obama by 13, 52-39.

The best polls for McCain in the past 24 hours were IBD/TIPP, which has Obama by 1, 45-44; Battleground, which has Obama by 4, 49-45; Hotline which has Obama by 5, 48-43; Gallup Expanded, which has Obama by 6, 51-45. There has not been a poll in the past month that I can remember that has had McCain ahead.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

If and when Barack Obama and the Democrats win a smashing victory in November, E.J. Dionne has provided the narrative to counter the inevitable Meacham nonsense:

Conservatism has finally crashed on problems for which its doctrines offered no solutions (the economic crisis foremost among them, thus Bush's apostasy) and on its refusal to acknowledge that the "real America" is more diverse, pragmatic and culturally moderate than the place described in Palin's speeches or imagined by the right-wing talk show hosts.

Conservatives came to believe that if they repeated phrases such as "Joe the Plumber" often enough, they could persuade working-class voters that policies tilted heavily in favor of the very privileged were actually designed with Joe in mind.It isn't working anymore. No wonder conservatives are turning on each other so ferociously.

It's time for a change. The country is rejecting Republicanism and extreme conservatism, not Sarah Palin's "qualifications." The mandate is for a change away from extreme Republicanism and conservatism, not a rejection of Sarah Palin the person.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Jeffrey Rosen examines the impact John McCain's election would have on the Supreme Court.

Although McCain claims to favor justices who will defer to the political branches, the most likely Republican nominees are hardly consistent advocates of judicial deference. Voters who are hoping McCain will nominate relatively moderate judicial mavericks should think again. ...

Activist conservatives, who yearn for the resurrection of what they call the Constitution in Exile, would be far more likely to challenge Congress and to strike down a range of federal regulations, from health care and the environment to the economic bailout. ... Many prominent conservatives are confident that McCain, who has never cared much about the judiciary, would placate his conservative base by appointing activist movement conservatives.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer is calling attention to racial disparities in the treatment of felony drug cases in Cuyahoga County.

In Cuyahoga County, white people are more likely to have their felony drug charges reduced to misdemeanors -- or to get treatment as an alternative to any conviction -- than black people charged with the same crime.

The Plain Dealer found:

[S]ince 2000, a black person has been 12.7 times more likely than a white person to be sent to a state prison from Cuyahoga County on drug charges.

[more ...]

Every now and then a news story reminds us that the Census Bureau counts prisoners as residents of the prison where they happen to be housed when the census is taken, a decision that seriously overstates the populations of rural areas with prisons.

In 2006, experts commissioned by the Census Bureau recommended that the agency study whether prison inmates should be counted in 2010 as residents of the mostly urban neighborhoods where they last lived rather than as residents of the mostly rural districts where they are temporarily housed against their will.

That's a change a Republican legislature would never have approved. Next year it could happen. Democrats should make it a priority.

This post addresses the issue and links to three other posts that do, as well.

One of the jurors in the Ted Stevens trial apparently caught a plane out of town to be with a seriously ill family member. The court will decide today whether to put deliberations on hold until the juror returns or to substitute an alternate juror. If an alternate joins the deliberations, the jury will need to set aside prior discussions and start fresh.

Meghan McCain was in Denver yesterday to pitch her new book about her father and her. Dad John arrives today where he will campaign with former Denver Quarterback John Elway. From her interview with local 7 News,

John McCain's daughter calls campaigning with him "like being on tour with a band except we're trying to save the world."

Katie Couric asked John McCain when was the last time he cried.

John McCain: I cry regularly.
Couric: You do?
McCain: Aw, yeah. You know, I'm very sentimental.

When Brian Williams asked Palin whether she would classify an abortion clinic bomber as a terrorist, her typically convoluted answer came down to "no."

There’s no question that Bill Ayers by his own admittance was one who thought to destroy our U.S. Capitol and our Pentagon. That is a domestic terrorist. There is no question there. Now others who would want to engage in harming innocent Americans or facilities that it would be unacceptable to, I don’t know if you’re gonna use the word "terrorist" there.

At the end of the linked video, Palin reaffirms her understanding of the "terrorist" label: [more ...]

Texas has 12 executions scheduled for the next six weeks.

Two were executed the week of Oct. 13. Two were scheduled for this week. And two more the week after that. Then six more in November, adding to Texas' standing as the nation's most active death penalty state.

[Hat tip Sentencing Law and Policy.]