Can Trump Win Without Pennsylvania?

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2016
Posted on Sun Sep 18, 2016 at 06:03:50 PM EST
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A new CBS poll on the battleground states says Hillary and Trump are now about equal. The poll is conducted on the internet. It's not really a poll by CBS, but for CBS, by an online polling company.

The CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is a panel study based on interviews conducted on the internetof registered voters in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire,Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin, California, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, New York, South Carolina, and Texas. The poll was conducted by YouGov, an online polling organization.

More significant, I think, is this new poll in Pennsylvania, which has Hillary at a 9 point lead in the state:

Democrat Hillary Clinton has a 9-point lead among likely Pennsylvania voters as Republican Donald Trump continues to struggle among groups key to winning the state, according to a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released Saturday.

[More...]

The poll results are available here.

Hillary Clinton is putting a lot of effort into Pennsylvania , a key battleground state that may be an insurmountable stumbling block to Donald Trump winning the election.

For Trump, nearly any route to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House includes Pennsylvania's 20 votes. With Clinton's edge in Colorado and Virginia, and her competitive standing in North Carolina, Trump could potentially win vote-rich Florida and Ohio, as well as competitive Iowa and New Hampshire, and still fall short of the White House unless he can capture Pennsylvania, too.

The last time a Republican won Pennsylvania was 1988. According to the Morning Call, Trump's problem stems from Republicans in Pennsylvania:

A critical challenge lies within his own party: 71 percent of Republicans say they're backing Trump, while 10 percent back Clinton and 19 percent are unsure. Among Democrats, 81 percent are for Clinton, 11 percent are for Trump and 9 percent are uncertain.

The Morning Call says it may not be possible for Trump to win Pennsylvania:

Independents lean toward Clinton, 42 percent to 33 percent, and one-quarter are undecided. "Trump is able to attract some Democrats, but he can't lose the amount of Republicans that this poll is showing and win the state," Borick said. "It's not mathematically possible."

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Can Trump Win Without Pennsylvania? | 7 comments (7 topical)

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Florida is Turning Red Again (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by Michael Masinter on Sun Sep 18, 2016 at 06:57:02 PM EST

The growth of the Villages, a multi-county sprawling retirement community popular with midwestern conservatives, has impacted Florida politics as least as much as migration from Puerto Rico, and is turning Florida red again; the long standing democratic edge in voter registration has been cut in half this year. The northeastern liberal retirees who once dominated the southeast coast have died; in their place, southeast Florida has become more diverse, but outside of a couple of congressional districts (DWS, Peter Deutsch), northeastern liberal retirees are no longer a dominant political force down here. Younger Cuban-Americans are not bound to the republican party as were their parents, but they are not excited by Secretary Clinton either. So winning Florida will be tough; unless there is an overwhelming turnout among democrats (there will be among republicans), I fear Florida will go for Trump.

Secretary Clinton is among the most qualified candidates to run for President in the past fifty years, but she is at best a mediocre campaigner, and she her staff has foolishly assumed fundraising is more important that campaign appearances. I hope they are right, but I fear they are wrong in this age of media manipulation at which Trump so clearly excels.

Foolish? (5.00 / 2) (#4)
by Towanda on Tue Sep 20, 2016 at 11:02:25 AM EST

Clinton recalls 2008.

And she knows that the number-one reason that women run but do not win is comparative lack of funding.


: Yes - and in thie election getting out the vote (5.00 / 2) (#5)
by ruffian on Tue Sep 20, 2016 at 01:16:37 PM EST

is a lot more important than big campaign events. And that takes funding. She is a good judge of her strengths and weaknesses. Organization is her strength, not inspiration via big event.

I don't think the fundraising is foolish. (5.00 / 1) (#7)
by vml68 on Tue Sep 20, 2016 at 01:33:32 PM EST

Tr*mp has been getting a lot of free airtime/publicity and also no pushback from the media. She needs money to fight both Tr*mp and the media.


I haven't been keeping tabs on Hillary's (none / 0) (#6)
by vml68 on Tue Sep 20, 2016 at 01:30:01 PM EST

campaign appearances in other states or even in other parts of FL but she has had rallies in the Tampa Bay area three times in the past couple of months. Twice in Tampa and once in St Pete.


Worried but hopeful (none / 0) (#1)
by Coral on Sun Sep 18, 2016 at 06:07:33 PM EST

The PA numbers are encouraging. FL & OH could go either way.

nate silver gives (none / 0) (#2)
by linea on Sun Sep 18, 2016 at 06:46:46 PM EST

75% hillary vs 25% trump - chance of willing PA and he uses a weighted poll methodology that is more correct than any single poll.