Trump Theories Abound

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2016
Posted on Mon Apr 11, 2016 at 03:47:34 PM EST
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Everyone has a different theory about what's ahead for Republicans and Donald Trump. The media, which pushed him to the top in the first place, has finally begun the backtrack. Is it too late? Is the apparent alternative (Ted Cruz) worse? Is John Kasich relevant?

In The 2016 U.S. Presidential Race: A Cheat Sheet, an article assessing the state of the race for the presidential nomination, with a section on each of the current and former contenders for all parties, the Atlantic writes about Trump:

Who is he?
America’s sweetheart—well, America’s high-school sweetheart, the one you get embarrassed thinking about decades later.

[More...]

From America's Sweetheart (lyrics here):

Well they say I'm too loud for this town
So I lit a match and burned it down
What do you want from me, I'm not America's sweetheart
But you love me anyway

He's always going to do things his way:

I got a mouth to put you in your place, and they
They said I'll never be the poster type
But they don't make posters of my kind of life

Trump won't go away without a fight.

Turn up the band, fire in the hole, holler if you ready,
Gonna lose control

Back to the Atlantic article. As to whether Trump can win the nomination, the Atlantic says, no one knows, not even him.

As to Hillary,

Can she win the nomination?
Bernie Sanders has given Clinton an enormous scare, but as the campaign runs through March, she has built up a lead among delegates that seems insurmountable.

On Sanders:

Can he win the nomination?
Almost certainly not, but his performance has been strong enough to keep him going. He’s won seven of the last eight Democratic contests. The bad news for him is that those tend to be smaller states, and he’s split the delegates with Clinton.

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Trump Theories Abound | 39 comments (39 topical)

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frankly, it doesn't matter who the GOP nominee (5.00 / 2) (#41)
by cpinva on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 11:57:34 AM EST

is, they've become the party of odious people, office seekers and their supporters alike. there is just not enough Lysol in the land to hide the stench of eau de Republican. at some point during the general election campaign, the Republican/Tea Party nominee will be forced to confront crowds of people who haven't all been hand picked by their campaign managers; hilarity will ensue.

Doubling Down on Depravity (none / 0) (#1)
by Mr Natural on Mon Apr 11, 2016 at 03:58:22 PM EST

Time: "Donald Trump Says It's `Ridiculous' for CIA Chief to Reject Waterboarding"

: comments in response to this comment (none / 0) (#29)
by Jeralyn on Mon Apr 11, 2016 at 09:25:38 PM EST

were deleted as off-topic (non-election related), baiting and insults.

If Donald cleans up in the (none / 0) (#2)
by CaptHowdy on Mon Apr 11, 2016 at 04:36:47 PM EST

North east he could still get to 1237.

New NBC poll (none / 0) (#3)
by CaptHowdy on Mon Apr 11, 2016 at 04:39:41 PM EST

Has him up 23 in NY and Hillary up 13

Oops (none / 0) (#4)
by CaptHowdy on Mon Apr 11, 2016 at 04:41:08 PM EST

Hillary up 14


Other interesting stuff (none / 0) (#6)
by CaptHowdy on Mon Apr 11, 2016 at 04:50:11 PM EST

In that poll

Like roughly twice as many Sanders supporters who say they will not support Hillary.

: I wonder how much of that (none / 0) (#8)
by CST on Mon Apr 11, 2016 at 04:53:47 PM EST

is a blue state/red state/purple state issue.
In a place like NY, you might think that your general election vote doesn't matter as much, so why not vote third party?

We aren't (none / 0) (#5)
by jimakaPPJ on Mon Apr 11, 2016 at 04:45:35 PM EST

electing a sweetheart.

Of course if we are, Hillary is out. Maybe she and Trump can form a government in exile. ;-)

And unless the Repub HooDoos change the rules, and surely even they aren't that stupid, Kasich can't possibly meet the rule that the nominee must win at least 8 states.

Cruz, if he can get it close enough to satisfy Trump's minions that a robbery is not in progress, might be able to unite the party enough to win.

In that case you folks will be wishing Trump had won.

Yeah, the image of anyone uniting behind (none / 0) (#7)
by ruffian on Mon Apr 11, 2016 at 04:53:26 PM EST

Ted Cruz is pretty ...icky? Are there enough barf buckets in Cleveland for the 'followers'?

Really I think the GOP is better off losing with Trump than with Cruz. At least they would go out with a bang.


Did you see Bill Maher on this? (5.00 / 1) (#32)
by Militarytracy on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 06:18:20 AM EST

He sent a just punt strategy out to the GOP. It was a hoot


Here Ruff (5.00 / 1) (#33)
by Militarytracy on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 06:27:13 AM EST

Maher says punt


: Yes, it was great. Really convinced me! (5.00 / 1) (#37)
by ruffian on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 10:51:54 AM EST

And I think you are whistling past (none / 0) (#11)
by jimakaPPJ on Mon Apr 11, 2016 at 04:59:53 PM EST

the graveyard.

If Sanders people walk and if Trump keeps getting the Reagan Democrats.....

Break out the worry beads.


Yes please (5.00 / 1) (#13)
by CaptHowdy on Mon Apr 11, 2016 at 05:02:30 PM EST

Let's take bets on which party will more aggressively kill their wounded and eat their young this cycle.


I think Jim has a good point. (none / 0) (#36)
by Chuck0 on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 10:25:44 AM EST

You need to hope Cruz gets the nomination against HRC. Trump supports will stay home. Cruz will not unite anything. However, if it's Trump v. HRC and Sanders voters stay home, HRC is in trouble (we ALL are in trouble).


: I don't think enough Sanders supporters (none / 0) (#38)
by ruffian on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 10:54:00 AM EST

will stay home to make a difference. Will I be a little worried? Sure. But only a little.

: Trump (none / 0) (#39)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 11:20:45 AM EST

has the same problem that Cruz does but it's just a different problem. He has 1/3 of the GOP that will not vote for him.

: If the U.S. electorate is really ... (none / 0) (#43)
by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 04:59:35 PM EST

... that shallow and incognizant, then our country will get exactly the sort of "Scheißesturm" it truly deserves, regardless of whether or not any one of us believe that we deserve it as individuals.

There (5.00 / 4) (#14)
by Ga6thDem on Mon Apr 11, 2016 at 05:18:21 PM EST

is no such thing as Reagan Democrats. They are dead along with Reagan.


Trump Democrats??? (none / 0) (#16)
by jimakaPPJ on Mon Apr 11, 2016 at 06:25:06 PM EST

Hey, that works.


Naw (5.00 / 1) (#17)
by Ga6thDem on Mon Apr 11, 2016 at 06:28:21 PM EST

it's the generic term independent is what they all use now.


: True (none / 0) (#42)
by Steve13209 on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 04:43:46 PM EST

There never were Reagan Democrats...they were always independents.

Well, that IS the only place I whistle... (5.00 / 3) (#20)
by ruffian on Mon Apr 11, 2016 at 07:38:48 PM EST

I'm a lousy prognosticator, but I feel pretty good about this one.


Worry Beads... (none / 0) (#40)
by ScottW714 on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 11:46:01 AM EST

... yeah if I was a republican, I would be worried. But as a democrat, this is more entertaining that worrying. Trump has plateaued with favorability and his unfavorability has descended since Iowa. Trump, Cruz, Kasich, Ryan, Romney, doesn't matter, the party has split, there is literally no candidate that has a shot, and I suspect after the convention, that split will be even larger.

My concern used to be turnout, not any more. Trump has got more people against him that for him and no matter what he does, he won't overcome, and right now the odds of him even being the candidate are getting slimmer by the day. Cruz, I mean seriously, that is like saying, 'We give up, HRC can have it'. Kasich, Ryan, and Romney, well maybe if the process to get them on the ballot didn't include screwing over Trump supporters/voters, big time.

I can only speak for me, but I don't get the sense that anyone is worried about HRC chances in November and when it's all said and done, she will owe Donald Trump a yuge & tremendous thank-you. And if this plays out the way it looks like it will, there will be a handful of D's in the Senate that will be thanking him as well.


Sort of fun to watch (none / 0) (#15)
by CaptHowdy on Mon Apr 11, 2016 at 05:57:12 PM EST

Republicans thrash around and repeatedly shoot themselves in the feet.

This thing in CO for example could not have been organized better to reinforce Trumps new message about a rigged process.

Former Colorado state Republican party chairman Ryan Call talked to Laura Ingraham today to explain the delegation-selection process works and how it "cuts out any semblance of democracy or the popular will." Call said the statewide convention that chooses the delegates reinforces all the worst stereotypes of the party.
"The very time we should be opening up our doors and being more open and transparent, and welcoming people into our Party, we've essentially made the decision to close it off and make it more cumbersome and more difficult. And, to prevent the ability of people to have their voice heard in this process. You're reinforcing all of the very worst stereotypes about the Party and I, frankly, am very concerned about the way voters are going to feel," Call told Ingraham.

this is not an (none / 0) (#30)
by Jeralyn on Mon Apr 11, 2016 at 09:28:42 PM EST

open thread. Please stay on topic. Off topic comments (about TV shows, etc ) have been deleted.

I'm unsure what will ... (none / 0) (#35)
by Robot Porter on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 10:21:26 AM EST

happen. Trump still has a chance to reach the magic number prior to the convention. And even if he doesn't he may be able to gather enough unbound delegates to get over the top on the first ballot.

I have a sense that Trump's chances of being the nominee will decrease with each ballot.

And chances of a "white knight candidate" emerging will increase if we get to a third ballot or beyond.

But whoever the Republicans choose, he or she will be leading a fractured party. And will have considerable trouble coalescing Republican support let alone making it close against Hillary.

Don't disagree with any of that (5.00 / 1) (#44)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 06:11:58 PM EST

But it's looking more and more like the republicans will not be the only fractured party this cycle.

IMO it's becoming clearer every day that our party is going to be just as fractured this time as last time with the biggest difference being the loser will not be a dedicated lifelong democrat who will work like hell to put it back together.

Seems like every day there is a new poll with alarming numbers of Sanders supporters swearing they will never vote for Hillary.

The republicans are going to be fractured. No doubt about that. But IMO every day this continues the more fractured we also become. Let's hope Sanders gives more of a damn than he seems to about that.


This a Democratic year (5.00 / 1) (#45)
by Robot Porter on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 06:49:17 PM EST

Bernie can do what he likes. But the train is leaving the station with or without him.

He's a smart politician. My guess is he wants to part of this historic victory.

Absent some huge event. And I mean ridiculously huge. Like Jesus returning to the earth or UFOs on the White House lawn. This election is over.

The GOP had a chance this cycle. Not a big chance. But a chance. But they blew that long ago.


Again (5.00 / 3) (#46)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 06:59:38 PM EST

I don't necessarily disagree. I do think it's easy for us to forget how much resistance there is out there to Hillary, personally.

One of the things that really bugs me most about Sanders more recent ravings is that they reinforce every pound of right wing bullsh!t that has been shoveled on the Clintons for decades. I think as a result there will be significant numbers of potential dem voters who will be lost.

Enough to lose the election? Probably not. But more than enough to worry about.


: The sooner (5.00 / 1) (#51)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 07:59:50 PM EST

Sanders quits that nonsense the more likely it is to be a factor 7 months from now. The problem is he seems to just be getting worse and worse as the bad polling numbers from the upcoming primaries start rolling in. And the press has finally started to ask him some questions which has not been pretty either. I guess no one ever asked him how he was going to accomplish anything when he ran for office in Vermont.

: I think it's unfortunate ... (none / 0) (#50)
by Robot Porter on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 07:56:46 PM EST

that Sanders has begun using Right Wing talking points. But he's desperate. And that's why it's happening.
This will all look different in July.
And the worries of today won't seem very important.

Trump's long anticipated shift (none / 0) (#47)
by NYShooter on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 07:33:25 PM EST

to the middle has begun.

He's been making conciliatory comments about his fallen primary opponents, with only one exception so far....... Cruz.

And, he's even stated that Rubio ("Little Marco") would make a fine Vice President.

With Saint Pauls announcement today (none / 0) (#48)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 07:39:56 PM EST

And the party's coming stare down with the gaping maw of chaos I wonder if there may begin to be thoughts of a Trump/Cruz ticket.

In any other year it would be the obvious choice.


Trump (none / 0) (#49)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 07:56:36 PM EST

and Cruz could do it themselves and then they would have enough delegates together.


In a chance chat with (none / 0) (#52)
by christinep on Tue Apr 12, 2016 at 10:41:00 PM EST

a neighborhood Repub activist (who was part of the recent Cruz win at their Colorado convention), I wondered aloud--only half in fun--whether this had the earmarks of a Trump/Cruz alignment if both failed at the run for the delegate majority. He didn't rail against it; rather, he semi-nodded & smiled. There are lots of things stranger than that twosome joining forces .... it actually makes practical sense for them.


It will be a Union of the Faithful (none / 0) (#53)
by Mr Natural on Wed Apr 13, 2016 at 04:12:07 PM EST

Trump will be praying for a God to keep him alive; Cruz will be braying to a God to kill him dead.


: You mean if Cruz was VP? (5.00 / 1) (#54)
by CaptHowdy on Wed Apr 13, 2016 at 04:54:52 PM EST

No doubt. Donald would need a food taster.