NH Primary Thread

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2016
Posted on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 05:03:48 PM EST
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I'm buried with work and really have no clue what's going on today anyway.

Talk NH here.

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NH Primary Thread | 223 comments (223 topical)

Electability (5.00 / 1) (#7)
by AnnL on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 06:31:00 PM EST

It's primarily about hurting Hillary. You know they'd prefer a republican pres. Sadly

But--I don't think that the preference (none / 0) (#62)
by christinep on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:18:08 PM EST

extends to Trump. For a lot of reasons. The fact that Trump appears to have won NH by such a large spread with multiple candidates may have an interesting attention-getting response in the press. What if they have to deal with the reality of letting the no-one-controls-me Trump continue to grow as "leader?" That infamous media may have to make some choices. For the HRC supporter in terms of the press tactics, the Trump dominance in his new party stirs up lots of things. (BTW, I'm confident that she wins in any event: but, the growth of Trump ultimately puts the mainstream press in a quandary.)

Parent

Electability (none / 0) (#135)
by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 08:20:25 AM EST

Well, in the exit polls she has the 65+ and the $200,000+ demographics sown up tight.

Parent

That's (none / 0) (#136)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 08:22:50 AM EST

NH. Different story in Iowa and different story in other states. You guys make me laugh.

Parent

Different story? (none / 0) (#142)
by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 09:32:38 AM EST

I can't see Bernie breaking into either one of those two demographics in any other state. How about you?

Parent

: No (none / 0) (#143)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 09:38:33 AM EST

he's not going to break into those demographics but he also has problems with other demographics that have yet to vote. Why you make me laugh is because you act like that's the only people who are gonna vote. Iowa and NH are Bernie's most favorable states next to Vermont.

Parent

Calling the race (5.00 / 2) (#22)
by AnnL on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:12:58 PM EST

Apparently AP called for Trump and Bernie. And as an aside the New York Times said as she barely eked out a win in Iowa, she's really a loser. Sheesh when does CDS end?

It never (5.00 / 1) (#26)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:16:40 PM EST

does. She'll win by 30 or more in SC and NV and they'll figure out some way to say she really "lost".

Cheer up. This is probably Bernie's high point until Vermont gets to vote.

Parent

It ends when she becomes President (5.00 / 2) (#48)
by christinep on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:02:02 PM EST

The press loves access to power. What else can I say....

Parent

: I'm not that optimistic (none / 0) (#158)
by ruffian on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:16:50 AM EST

Remember it started when Bill was in power.

Parent

I have not seen (none / 0) (#27)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:16:59 PM EST

The MSNBC news team this happy since Hillary conceded in 2008.

Parent

I'm wondering (none / 0) (#30)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:19:58 PM EST

what they are going to be saying after a few more states vote.

Parent

Captain: Did you know (none / 0) (#55)
by christinep on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:10:59 PM EST

an interesting tidbit: Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama actually have a common point ... the last 3 Presidents of the US LOST the New Hampshire primary.

I will not turn on MSNBC to watch their "analysis" on this one. No need to hurt my blood pressure. (I'd only point out: I've been somewhat involved with HRC campaign--not surprising, I know--and, that an earlier call about fundraising et al by western finance director, confirmed my blah feeling about NH results with the advice to continue reading the book I've been reading tonight. Silver lining, tho (and as you suspect) is coming in the next few weeks ... they sound very, very confident about South Carolina and fairly confident about the caucus state of Nevada. We just have to endure the doomsday jabs for the next week or so.)

Thank you, Howdy.

Parent

Bernie (5.00 / 1) (#61)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:16:54 PM EST

is in trouble in Nevada because he really ticked off Reid's people there by attacking dreamers.

Parent

It sort of fun (none / 0) (#57)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:13:09 PM EST

Actually.

Parent

: I almost (none / 0) (#59)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:15:51 PM EST

enjoy the "she's doomed" narrative in some ways so she can kick sand in their face later on down the line.

Parent

Ha ha (5.00 / 1) (#34)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:23:54 PM EST

funny tweet: NH was one by two people who will never be president.

Let's Hope So... (none / 0) (#145)
by ScottW714 on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 09:49:24 AM EST

... as any person who follows sports or politics knows, the past does not predict the future.

Parent

: Actually more often than not it does (none / 0) (#150)
by ruffian on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:06:14 AM EST

Else we may as well throw all those voting models and coaching tapes out the window.

Parent

Christie provided (5.00 / 2) (#122)
by KeysDan on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 10:30:19 PM EST

a self-less service. He unmasked Rubio, but, nothing accrued to him---so long Christie. And, take Rubio with you I can't help thinking if it was Secretary Clinton who unmasked Rubio in the Christie-aggressive manner, would she be reported as showing her lawyerly skills, or be called shrewish.

Morning Mica (5.00 / 1) (#166)
by CaptHowdy on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:42:18 AM EST

Identifies the NEXT battleground .

"I bet she releases the text if the speeches BUT NOT THE Q & A"

OMG how did we not think of this?!?!?!!

Holy hell

: Up next (none / 0) (#170)
by jbindc on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:51:53 AM EST

Did she drink juice at those speeches (in a silent pandering to Florida orange growers), Coca-Cola (to pander to Georgians), milk (to pander to Wisconsin dairy farmers), etc. ? Did she partake of the snacks or did she get caviar sent over beforehand?
Seriously. What do people (especially THESE people) think got said at a corporate event such as this??? What could she possibly have said that people think is so damming - where they can get a "gotcha"? Because she was nice to them and complimented them?? (Would be a little weird to take money from a compamy and then insult them to their faces or tell them you're out to get them, no??)

Parent

jbindc (5.00 / 1) (#213)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 02:12:20 PM EST

Despite the media's best effort to make it into a competitive primary no one is buying it. Lots of Hillary supporters think she's already "got it".
Despite the media's claim about Bernie inspiring young people he's not really. Well, he is but not to the extent that the media makes it out to be. But then again, the 18-29 demographic is the least reliable when it comes to voting too.

I am not so smug jb (5.00 / 1) (#214)
by sj on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 02:14:34 PM EST

So, when does the revolution start? (none / 0) (#211)
by jbindc on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 12:56:00 PM MDT
Turnout in NH on Dem side was down last night by around 50,000 from 2008. The Dems got 20,000 fewer votes than all the ones cast for the Republicans as well.

That means HRC didn't draw them to polls either. Well except for senior citizens. The good news is, seniors tend to vote religiously.

Fiorina's out (5.00 / 3) (#215)
by jbindc on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 02:18:20 PM EST

On the TV... (5.00 / 1) (#218)
by ScottW714 on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 02:30:51 PM EST

...they said HRC had NH residents over 65 wrapped up, and that 75% of people under 45 went with Sanders.

JB your complaints seem more suited for the person who hasn't been able to touch young people, or rather people who aren't old. Not sure why you keep blaming everyone but the candidate. Lord knows if she was killing it, it would be 100% Clinton getting the credit.

And as far as numbers, that's a knock on the party, which last time I checked includes a Clinton. And it proves that Trump can get A's in the seats, which is not good.

I think a lot rides on SC (5.00 / 1) (#220)
by smott on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 03:14:31 PM EST

Sounds obvious of course.
But if Sanders makes it close then that opens the door to a real ugly close race....

If Clinton gets in she'll then have to win without white youth.
If Sanders gets in we'll have Bloomberg as 3rd party, with a unique opp to get the establishment votes on BOTH sides with Trump as the GOP nom.

And Bernie has not been seriously vetted. Just the rape fantasy essay, which I daresay Clinton won't touch, will be red meat for the GOP. Older conservative Dems could easily go for Bloomberg, as would establishment Repubs.

Scott (1.00 / 1) (#206)
by jbindc on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:49:49 AM EST

It's just not Thomas Rogan.

It IS the fantasy of many liberals, especially many of those supporting BS. They are calling get for her to be his running mate.

#fantasy

I'm sure (none / 0) (#1)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 05:48:44 PM EST

Bernie will win NH.

Really going out ... (none / 0) (#2)
by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 06:17:11 PM EST

on a limb there.

;)

Parent

: I'm sure (none / 0) (#4)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 06:21:26 PM EST

:)

Parent

Bernie (none / 0) (#3)
by AnnL on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 06:18:15 PM EST

And then go on to crush Hillary in Nevada and South Carolina! Say Chuckie and assorted pundits on MSNBC! They can't contain there glee. A bit annoying

Good luck (none / 0) (#5)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 06:22:36 PM EST

with that. They must not understand the voters in those states in the least. NH matters zip to them.

Parent

But seriously (none / 0) (#6)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 06:23:49 PM EST

do they want to lose the general election to a Republican? I really think that they don't care one bit what happens to people like me in this country.

Parent

It's MSNBC, doncha know (5.00 / 1) (#11)
by jbindc on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 06:55:58 PM EST

Never met anot anti-Hillary meme they didn't love

Parent

Makes no difference to them (none / 0) (#12)
by pitachips on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 06:57:34 PM EST

Unemployment, student loans, lack of health knsurance, a feeling that your voice does not matter, being shipped off to fight in foreign misadventures...all of these are foreign concepts to media personalities.

Parent

: It would (none / 0) (#16)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:03:36 PM EST

seem so.

Parent

Cross talk on MSNBC (none / 0) (#8)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 06:52:00 PM EST

Todd is like a dog with a bone talking about Hillary losing and how devastating and career ending it is.

No matter what anyone say he's "but Hillary is losing......"

What is (none / 0) (#9)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 06:55:10 PM EST

his problem? NH is just one state just like Iowa. It is Bernie's 2nd most favorable state next to his home state of Vermont. The real test for Bernie are the next two states that are demographically reverse. One of them was screeching it's a Bernie surge and he can get 35% in SC. So all of a sudden losing by 30 points is a good thing? This is how ridiculous all this has gotten.

Parent

My own reality check (5.00 / 2) (#69)
by christinep on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:26:15 PM EST

Apart from the Superdelegate numbers, HRC won (I recall) 22 delegates from Iowa and Sanders won 20. There are relatively less delegates at stake from NH ... 32, I believe. Just guessing: Sanders wins 18, and HRC wins 14.

So, with a veritable tie in the two states ... plus about 466 pledged Superdelegates for HRC and 2 Superdelegates for Sanders. Fascinating infor for the likes of Chuck Todd et al :)

Parent

Funny (none / 0) (#71)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:28:53 PM EST

I don't think they have mentioned that

Parent

: Because (none / 0) (#73)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:30:38 PM EST

they don't read the Cook report that deals with this kind of stuff.

Parent

Voter turnout (none / 0) (#75)
by jbindc on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:33:43 PM EST

Down 13% this year

Parent

Rhetorical question I assume (none / 0) (#13)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 06:57:39 PM EST

2 problems.

1.). He hates Hillary

2.). They want a horse race

Parent

: it may also (5.00 / 1) (#125)
by KeysDan on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 11:00:12 PM EST

Relate to increasing market share of the coveted young demographic. It is hip. See that also with colbert and Larry wilmore, for example.

Parent
: I guess (none / 0) (#15)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:02:45 PM EST

he's also neglecting to notice the fact that everybody in recent history who has won NH also either lost the nomination or lost the presidential election.

Parent

Good News for HRC... (none / 0) (#147)
by ScottW714 on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:01:39 AM EST

... if Chuck Todd thinks it is a bad thing.

This was predictable, and everyone knew it.

Todd is the political equivalent to Jim Cramer, the 'expert' that is wrong way more that he is right.

I would also argue that isn't technically losing considering how many Super Delegates she already has:

Delegates
Clinton 394
Sanders 42

Parent

Saying they may (none / 0) (#10)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 06:55:31 PM EST

Call the races at 8

ABC just did. (none / 0) (#14)
by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:02:40 PM EST

Parent

Still going to be interesting (none / 0) (#17)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:09:49 PM EST

To see what the republican also rans do.

Parent

Now it's (none / 0) (#18)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:10:26 PM EST

Trump
Kasich
Bush
Cruz

Parent

So far ... (none / 0) (#19)
by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:11:26 PM EST

the order is matching my predictions.

We'll see how it goes the rest of the night.

Parent

I think you low balled (none / 0) (#21)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:12:44 PM EST

Donalds margin.

Parent

: We'll see. (none / 0) (#24)
by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:14:41 PM EST

Parent

looks (none / 0) (#20)
by FlJoe on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:11:43 PM EST

like five of them will continue, good news for Trump.

Parent

Yep (none / 0) (#23)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:13:32 PM EST

And very good news for Kasich if he gets the silver

Parent

Brokered (none / 0) (#35)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:24:22 PM EST

convention on the way it seems.

Parent

: I don't think so (none / 0) (#36)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:34:35 PM EST

Parent

Looks much closer (none / 0) (#25)
by jbindc on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:15:13 PM EST

So far (12% reporting) - only 6 points.

If it holds up, that's gotta sting since he was up by 20-25.

I truly (none / 0) (#28)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:17:22 PM EST

hope it is close.

Parent

Judging by the glee (none / 0) (#29)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:18:56 PM EST

On the tube since they see exit polls I begin to doubt my prediction of single digits. But maybe. They only care if he wins.

Parent

: They probably (5.00 / 1) (#33)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:22:58 PM EST

would have that same glee if she lost by 5 points.

Parent

Bye, bye ... (none / 0) (#31)
by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:20:31 PM EST

Mr. Roboto!

From one Robot to another! (none / 0) (#32)
by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:21:01 PM EST

Parent

Probably bye bye (none / 0) (#37)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:40:03 PM EST

Christie and Paul

Parent

I thought (none / 0) (#38)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:41:15 PM EST

Paul was already out. I think Fiorina should be out and Carson too.

Parent

Is he? (none / 0) (#40)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:43:55 PM EST

Who knew!

Parent

: Since Iowa (none / 0) (#149)
by ScottW714 on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:04:31 AM EST

LINK

The decision follows a disappointing finish in the Iowa caucuses, where Paul won just 4.5 percent of the vote, good for a fifth place showing.
He's also faced criticism from some Republicans who want him to focus on his Senate reelection bid in a year where Democrats are threatening to retake the upper chamber.

Parent

I am looking for the Fiorina results (none / 0) (#45)
by Peter G on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:56:21 PM EST

Don't count her out! Special place in hell, and all that.

Parent

4% (none / 0) (#49)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:02:51 PM EST

Parent

Declare a moral victory! (none / 0) (#58)
by Peter G on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:14:10 PM EST

She's breaking 2%. Must be the surge from everyone who watched the video of her lying on a table with wriggling unsuccessfully aborted fetuses. Or whatever that was.

Parent

: Surge of (5.00 / 1) (#68)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:23:21 PM EST

Former HP employees

Parent
: Ewwww! (none / 0) (#101)
by ruffian on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:23:15 PM EST

Gonna need another gin to erase that image

Parent

She's suffering form ... (none / 0) (#76)
by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:35:46 PM EST

the soft bigotry of low expectations.

To paraphrase W.

Parent

: You talking about Carly or Jeb (none / 0) (#78)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:37:39 PM EST

Parent

The pro-left must be happy. (none / 0) (#39)
by AX10 on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:43:32 PM EST

Berns is a favorite son. He is getting 70 points plus on the border towns.

On to Nevada and SC.

The pro left and the anit left (none / 0) (#46)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:58:36 PM EST

Politico-

Clinton allies grapple with crushing loss

Not going to link but trust me it's all down hill from there.

Now, after a drubbing so serious as to call into question every aspect of her campaign from her data operation to her message, the wounded front-runner and her allies are actively preparing to retool their campaign, according to Clinton allies.

Pfffft

Parent

: Pffft (5.00 / 1) (#53)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:08:55 PM EST

is right. No matter what happens win or lose they can't let go of The Narrative. They find a poll that justifies The Narrative like the Q poll which by the way was way off in IA and declare she's "doomed". She'll be sworn into office and they'll still be declaring "she's doomed".

Parent

The state border communities are ... (none / 0) (#93)
by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:07:16 PM EST

... the locale of several colleges, such as Dartmouth (Hanover, NH). No surprise, really.

Parent

lol. answering the question of just how old (5.00 / 3) (#95)
by Mr Natural on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:13:25 PM EST

we have to be to sneer off the youth vote.

It wasn't that long ago that we were the youth vote.

Parent

And now, ... (none / 0) (#112)
by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:42:02 PM EST

... we are the people our parents warned us about.

Parent

Jimmy Buffett is always welcome here (none / 0) (#115)
by CoralGables on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:46:39 PM EST

Parent

CG, Jimmie Buffett (none / 0) (#133)
by fishcamp on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 07:09:21 AM EST

lives just north of you in Palm Beach. I'm surprised he still has time to perform concerts with all the business ventures he's involved in. He used to fly down here in his little seaplane, spot tarpon, land and catch one. Then he would call from the Islamorada Fish Company to have lunch, since he could dock his floatplane there. He didn't want anybody to know where his fish were. Sneaky folks these tarpon fishermen.

Parent

: Books, Plays, Restaurants, Concerts, Hotels (none / 0) (#134)
by CoralGables on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 07:35:15 AM EST

It's definitely hard to keep up.
His next venture into theater, "Margaritaville The Musical" opens next year.
Little known fact: He's one of very few authors that has hit the #1 spot on the NY Times Best Sellers List in both Fiction & Non-Fiction. I can still kick back outside on a sunny day and leaf through "A Pirate Looks At Fifty"

Parent

Donald won (none / 0) (#41)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:46:43 PM EST

Every demo by pretty much the same margin. Conservative, moderate, republican, independent. The only demo that was different was no college which he won by 10 points more than the others.

That's pretty striking.

: "He's the kinda guy that you'd (none / 0) (#97)
by Mr Natural on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:15:14 PM EST

... get to open the door for."

Parent
: That basically happens ... (none / 0) (#98)
by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:15:24 PM EST

when you win decisively.

Parent

Looks like (none / 0) (#42)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:48:53 PM EST

what might be old is new again. It might be Bush, Trump and Cruz fighting it out for the nomination since Kasich is unlikely to do well in the next round of states. Rubio is probably done as none of the states are favorable to him.

So far (none / 0) (#43)
by jbindc on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:51:22 PM EST

Looks like 13 delegates for Bernie. 12 for Hillary according to CNN, even though he'said leading 58-40

Subject to change as the evening goes on, of course.

If she gets (none / 0) (#44)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 07:55:49 PM EST

43.8% of the vote she'll get half the delegates.

It's still not enough for Bernie though to get the nomination since he needed to get 2/3 out of Iowa and more than that in NH to withstand the coming states where he's likely to be wiped out.

Parent

Pro Bernie areas are reporting first. (none / 0) (#47)
by AX10 on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:01:45 PM EST

A split delegate count will be good.

Parent

: Of course, we won't hear that (none / 0) (#50)
by jbindc on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:03:52 PM EST

Parent

She won't. (none / 0) (#114)
by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:46:10 PM EST

As of 10:45 p.m. EST, Bernie Sanders has actually enlarged his margin of victory with just a tad less than 60% of the vote.

No sugar coating this one. It's a rout.

Parent

Now they are complaining (none / 0) (#51)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:07:08 PM EST

On MSNBC about people complaining about them shilling for Bernie.

They have truly lost it. It's actually funny to watch. If you were a visiting alien you would think Bernie only needs to be inaugurated .

They are (none / 0) (#56)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:11:19 PM EST

shilling for Bernie and have been. Never do they put up those numbers from other states that show him getting killed. If I were Hispanic or African American I would be royally p*ssed about this kind of thing. They act like they don't even matter.

Parent

In 2008 they were MSNBO (5.00 / 1) (#77)
by smott on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:37:21 PM EST

Now they're MSNBS

It is what it is. Clinton is loathed to a unique degree.

Parent

: indeed (none / 0) (#127)
by Kmkmiller on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 03:22:29 AM EST

it's just hate.

Parent

Olberman and Schultz are gone (none / 0) (#60)
by AX10 on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:16:52 PM EST

and the network is still garbage.

Bernie is losing the big states by 30 points.

A left wing Fox is not what we need.

I occasionally watch CNN or foreign media.

Parent

CNN (none / 0) (#63)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:19:37 PM EST

is pretty much just as bad. Occasionally Chris Matthews might say or do something worthwhile but other than that MSNBC is a vast wasteland with Andrea Mitchell being one of the worst. I can't believe anybody even gives Chuck Todd a job.

Parent

Or dead intern joe scarface. (none / 0) (#65)
by AX10 on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:20:42 PM EST

Cabal "News" is a wasteland.

Parent

I can not watch CNN (none / 0) (#67)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:21:21 PM EST

I can't. And I won't watch FOX. so..........

Parent

: Pretty much (none / 0) (#72)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:29:36 PM EST

they're all bad.

Parent

But but but (none / 0) (#64)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:20:34 PM EST

There is that one national poll..........

Parent

Kasich (none / 0) (#52)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:07:43 PM EST

Called as second. Very good news for him.

Right now (none / 0) (#54)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:09:11 PM EST

It's Trump 34 Kasich 14

25% in

Parent

Looks like the big battle ... (none / 0) (#66)
by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:21:19 PM EST

is for third.

Bush and Cruz neck and neck. And based on the uncounted areas I cannot tell which way it will go.

Parent

Go Jeb! (none / 0) (#70)
by Peter G on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:26:25 PM EST

Go, go Jeb!!

Parent

Jeb's gone (5.00 / 1) (#83)
by fishcamp on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:45:41 PM EST

he started going at the very beginning.

Parent

I think he will be in to at least SC (none / 0) (#85)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:48:03 PM EST

The jibber jabber is "that is BUSH country"

I don't think it really is but........

Parent

Cruz seems like more of an SC guy (none / 0) (#87)
by jondee on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:52:35 PM EST

except for the ethnic-sounding last name, which might be offensive to some people down there.

Parent

Donald will win SC (none / 0) (#90)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:56:46 PM EST

Parent

I doubt it. (none / 0) (#94)
by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:09:50 PM EST

Parent

RCP (none / 0) (#99)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:22:42 PM EST

has three SC polls

Trump +16
Trump +19
Trump +14

What part of tonight do you think will change that?

Parent

: Final RCP average for NH (none / 0) (#113)
by CoralGables on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:45:33 PM EST

had Trump at +17.2
Trump currently sits at +17.9
GOP polling was really good in NH. If it's the same good polling in SC it will be a repeat of tonight for Trump. To be fair though, there has been minimal polling in SC thus far (only 3 polls in 2016). The amount of polling there should change very soon.

Parent

Jeb is right now in fourth. (none / 0) (#81)
by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:44:54 PM EST

But if I'm judging the counties right. It looks he'll pull back into the third before the night's out.

Parent

: If he doesn't he better do well (none / 0) (#84)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:46:32 PM EST

In SC

Parent

Congratulations to Sanders and his supporters! (none / 0) (#74)
by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:32:26 PM EST

Enjoy your night!

I'd offer congratulations to Trump too. But I heard he's already in traction from aggressively patting himself on the back.

: Why thank you Sir... (5.00 / 1) (#141)
by kdog on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 09:17:23 AM EST

and igualmente on your eventual nomination.
But I will cherish this night, Kucinich never got no 60% in no primary that I recall...still somewhat hard to even fathom this is happening. A very small yet significant victory for an idea of what government should be and who they should serve.
Thanks Bernie.

Parent

Delegate Count (none / 0) (#79)
by RickyJim on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:38:42 PM EST

At time of this posting, this page shows out of 32 Democratic delegates, Clinton and Sanders are tied at 13 a piece. Trump has won 9 Republican delegates out of 23, with his opponents all at 0 so far. Certainly, especially on the Democratic side, this gives a hugely different picture of the outcome.

Heard today (none / 0) (#80)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:42:45 PM EST

That if you get less than 10% your delegates go to the winner.

Right now that's Christie, Carley, Carson and Rand.

Parent

The allocation of delegates ... (none / 0) (#103)
by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:27:52 PM EST

... likely depends upon where the votes for a given candidate are actually cast. New Hampshire Republicans have 23 pledged delegates, which are allocated allocated proportionally by the statewide vote alone.

But that state's Democrats have 24 pledged delegates, which are allocated to the candidates proportionally by both the district vote and statewide vote. (Bernie Sanders ran up big margins in Manchester and the college towns along the NH-VT state line.)

So, if delegates are allocated by district, the greater the geographic distribution of a front-running candidate's votes, the more delegates he or she is likely to be awarded. It's happens occasionally in presidential primaries that a candidate will win the overall popular vote in a given state that allocates by district, yet finish second in the delegate count to the runner-up because his or her votes were confined to select areas, such as a large city.

Aloha.

Parent

: According to the NYTimes (none / 0) (#119)
by RickyJim on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 10:12:38 PM EST

there is no difference between how the parties allocate delegates in New Hampshire and it is unclear if Sanders will get more delegates than Clinton.
Link

Republican Primary
23 total delegates
Twenty delegates are allocated proportionally based on the primary vote. Three will remain unpledged until the national convention.

Democratic Primary
32 total delegates
Twenty-four delegates are allocated proportionally based on the primary vote. Eight will remain unpledged until the national convention.

Based on the percentages at time of this post, Sanders gets 15 delegates, Clinton 9 while 8 will be uncommitted until the convention.

Parent

I'm starting to feel (none / 0) (#82)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:45:07 PM EST

That I know Bernie's tongue personally.

He's reaching a Nixon level ... (none / 0) (#86)
by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:51:48 PM EST

of rambling right now.

Time to get off the stage.

Parent

Seriously (5.00 / 1) (#88)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:53:22 PM EST

The way he is milking this victory speech you would almost think he doesn't expect to get another one.

Parent

: I just....it makes me question my (5.00 / 1) (#104)
by ruffian on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:28:23 PM EST

beliefs when I get them shouted at me with the pointy fingers. But I guess it works on people who are hearing them for the first time.

Parent
: Pffft (none / 0) (#89)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:55:19 PM EST

Brian Williams "it was.......probably ....on the long side"

Parent
: He might (none / 0) (#117)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:50:41 PM EST

not get to make another one.

Parent

I'm frankly (none / 0) (#140)
by lentinel on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 09:17:05 AM EST

shocked that you would say that.

I thought that Sanders sounded far more coherent - and was far more motivational - than Hillary's kitchen sink speech - which sounded like a mishmash of predigested material all swirling about in her brain in no particular order.

Two people - you and me - seeing the same event - and perceiving it in completely opposite ways.

I guess that's the way it T I is.

Parent

: Bernie is usually (none / 0) (#156)
by MKS on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:15:27 AM EST

coherent but last night's speech was long and rambling.
Even when Bernie is coherent, I can only listen to him for 5 minutes or so before falling asleep. It is like listening to a college lecture: If I have to, I will.
Motivational? I suppose for those who really share his ideas. But he is very repetitive. "Millionaires and Billionaires...." I do hear that phrase ringing in my ears....

Parent

Yeah (none / 0) (#91)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:04:26 PM EST

you're not the only one that said it was really bad.

Parent

I didn't say his tongue was bad (none / 0) (#92)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:06:18 PM EST

I just think we need some time apart

Parent

LOL (none / 0) (#96)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:14:22 PM EST

Okay. People were talking about how he sounded like he was going to fall over.

Parent

HRC needs to regroup. (none / 0) (#124)
by AX10 on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 10:53:59 PM EST

Make that his last speech.
It was too long.

Parent

: Some of the (none / 0) (#131)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 07:07:41 AM EST

pundits were shocked at that speech saying it was the same speech he gave after Iowa and he had no pivot looking towards NV and SC.

Parent

Listening to Kasich (none / 0) (#100)
by MKS on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:22:56 PM EST

If he ever gets to the General Election, he would tough.

But he will probably be rejected by the GOP for the reasons I like him.

He is a fooler. (5.00 / 1) (#121)
by sallywally on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 10:29:53 PM EST

I'm from Ohio and he is making major progress getting abortion banned completely in Ohio. Lots of voter suppression stuff from our lovely sec of state. He is keeping things hidden under that apparent moderation and non-radicalism.

Parent

: Ohio legislature is defunding (none / 0) (#132)
by sallywally on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 07:09:14 AM EST

Planned Parenthood. Voting on this with some changes; Kasich will sign.

Parent
: Why he would be dangerous (none / 0) (#157)
by MKS on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:16:43 AM EST

Parent

I agree (none / 0) (#102)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:26:09 PM EST

And I hope you are right. And I think you are. He is just not angry enough.

Parent

I think the also rans (none / 0) (#105)
by MKS on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:29:31 PM EST

will continue to split the establishment vote, and Donald will get Cruz's votes.....

Donald, I think gets it.

Parent

: Yep (none / 0) (#108)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:33:00 PM EST

I posted the SC polls upthread. I think he wins there and is freight train in the south.
Not buying the brokered convention krap. I think that establishment wishful thinking.

Parent

He used to be incredibly angry (none / 0) (#110)
by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:40:07 PM EST

I don't know where that Kasich went.

Parent

: He needs to find him quick (3.00 / 1) (#111)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:41:51 PM EST

Because as was just said on TV SC is a place where meanness is a political virtue.

Parent

I prefer Gov. Kasich amongst the Republicans, ... (none / 0) (#107)
by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:32:53 PM EST

... because he appears to be the only adult present in a room full of adolescent boys with raging hormones. At least, were he to somehow be elected president, I could take solace in the likelihood that he wouldn't step on the gas and drive the country off a cliff with all flags flying.

Parent

: Which considering (5.00 / 3) (#109)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:34:37 PM EST

His actual politics just illustrates how far the Overton Window has been yanked right.

Parent

Kasich had the best speech (none / 0) (#106)
by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:31:52 PM EST

He was the only one to understand that speeches such as this need something extra.

They're not just another version of your stump speech.

Thanks for the reporting, all. (none / 0) (#116)
by KeysDan on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:47:21 PM EST

Could not bear to watch. Sat through a dumb action film, but better than the MSNBC or any other media crowd. Just tuned in, congratulations to Senator Sanders, only caught the end of his speech. Mrs Clinton says she will be taking stock after NH, probably a good thing, but the coming contests will be different. Senator Sanders will surely stay on message.

: Onward (none / 0) (#118)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:52:20 PM EST

and upward.

Parent

Bill Kristol (none / 0) (#120)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 10:19:06 PM EST

the man who has been wrong about everything says the general election slate is going to be Sanders Warren and Trump Kasich. I guess Trump and Sanders now officially have the Kristol curse to contend with. LOL.

: The Trump/Kasich (none / 0) (#123)
by KeysDan on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 10:31:57 PM EST

ticket has been my guess. But, do not like being in the same thought process as Kristol.

Parent
: Bill Kristol ... (none / 0) (#126)
by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 11:02:35 PM EST

like a good neocon, is giving us another grand drama to make us feel fulfilled.
Remember, the neocons claim we citizens need to feel that we're part of a grand drama. And it's not important if that drama is real or not. We just have to believe its real.
Only then will we be fulfilled and accept our role in society.

Parent

I have two plans (none / 0) (#128)
by Kmkmiller on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 03:28:53 AM EST

after the msnbc propped up candidate wins..

bloomberg.
trump. cause 4 years or republican incompetence is better imo than 4 years of Dem incompetence.

: cause 4 years of republican incompetence (none / 0) (#129)
by Kmkmiller on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 03:32:15 AM EST

will lead to 8 years of dem domination.
4 years of Dem incompetence will lead to 8 years of republican domination.
just thinking big picture.

Parent

Total delegate count from Iowa and NH (none / 0) (#130)
by CoralGables on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 06:58:26 AM EST

for Dems, includes declared Superdelegates as reported by AP. (GOP does not have Superdelegates)

Totals for Dems:
Clinton 44
Sanders 34

Totals for GOP:
Trump 17
Cruz 10
Rubio 7
Carson 3
Kasich 3
Bush 2
Paul 1

Bloomberg Politics reports it the same for the Dems but slighly different for the GOP

Trump 17
Cruz 10
Rubio 7
Kasich 4
Carson 3
Bush 3
Fiorina 1
Paul 1

This is the first time I can remember ... (none / 0) (#137)
by Robot Porter on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 08:34:55 AM EST

that both NH winners were candidates who'd led in the state for months but received almost no vetting.

Sanders has been treated like the cutest puppy in the pound. And Trump has just had his press releases rubber stamped by the media.

If you think (3.50 / 2) (#138)
by lentinel on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 09:09:42 AM EST

that Sanders has been treated like a cute puppy, I don't think you have been reading TalkLeft lately.

Too old.
Constituency all old and white.
Constituency all young and white.
You think he's pure?
He can't win.
Bad posture.
Not a revolutionary.

Oh... we agree on the issues...
but....

The most praise he gets hereabouts for the most part is the patronizing booby prize he will have had some positive impact if he loses... to which I say, capital B capital S. If Sanders is defeated by this coalition of right wing republicans and establishment democrats, we will go right back to government by Goldman and "leadership" in unending wars.

Puppy?
More like Pariah.

Parent

And if he wins (none / 0) (#148)
by MKS on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:03:45 AM EST

and becomes President?

The House will not even formally receive Obama's budget by having a hearing on it. An in-you-face breach of protocol.

Parent

: A small tiny evil part of me (5.00 / 2) (#152)
by CaptHowdy on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:07:54 AM EST

Almost wishes Sanders would win the nomination just so these people who think we have been so mean to poor Bernie get to find out what the republicans do to him.

Parent

Actually (none / 0) (#139)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 09:15:57 AM EST

the GOP has done a lot of vetting on Trump. The fact of the matter is that none of his voters care. They know all his baggage. The one who actually has not been vetted is Bernie.

Parent

Trump hasn't been vetted at all. (none / 0) (#160)
by Robot Porter on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:21:50 AM EST

His hiring of illegal aliens for which he was fined millions of dollars. His decades long connection to organized crime. The federal government investigations of him for bribery and racketeering.

And that's just the tip of the iceberg of the public domain stuff on him.

If he's answering questions about mob ties and hiring illegal aliens, he's not staying atop the polls long.

And both those stories keep giving. The mob ties encompass deal after deal. And I'm sure he's hired illegals and not been caught.

The print media has touched on this stuff a little. But TV so far has ignored it. As have his opponents. No questions in debates. No negative ads on this stuff.

Parent

Okay (none / 0) (#162)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:30:09 AM EST

True they have talked about his other baggage but not that particular stuff. Maybe Jeb will do an oppo dump on him before SC on this kind of stuff.

Parent

: Good luck with that (none / 0) (#165)
by CaptHowdy on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:39:08 AM EST

Parent

Yeah, I always wondered (none / 0) (#167)
by MKS on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:42:46 AM EST

how you build office towers in New York without mob help.

Parent

: In the new political world order.. (5.00 / 1) (#197)
by kdog on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:34:59 AM EST

mob ties might be less of a lead weight than Wall St. ties for a candidate.
The mob doesn't pretend they are on the level like their Brooks Brothers counterparts try to pretend.
The mob is a better bookie for gamblers than state lotteries.
The mob delivers goods and services people want that the government says they can't have.

Parent

There was audible booing (none / 0) (#144)
by jbindc on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 09:44:20 AM EST

At Sanders HQ last night, while the folks there were watching HRC's concession speech when she mentioned her visit to Flint.

Stay classy, supporters. Please continue to tell us all how you are the people who care more about "regular" people than your opponent does.

His supporters (none / 0) (#146)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 09:51:26 AM EST

are going to drive a lot of people away by the way they have been acting.

Parent

Yep (5.00 / 1) (#151)
by smott on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:06:39 AM EST

Trash talk and personal attacks if you don't support their guy.
Seen that before.
I really hate the notion that we're going to do Bros v Hos again. But if the race stays close and Sanders makes a good showing in SC, it will be deja vu all over again, as Yogi said.

Parent

I think they will avoid it as long as possible (none / 0) (#153)
by CaptHowdy on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:09:58 AM EST

But if it becomes necessary I'm pretty sure camp Hillary is more than capable of "vetting" Bernie.

Parent

: Taxes, taxes, taxes (5.00 / 1) (#168)
by MKS on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:45:24 AM EST

Bernie's free stuff will require tax increases, and not just on the millionaires and billionaires.
And this is a fair line of attack. Bernie better get vetted on this now rather than in General.

Parent

Seriously (none / 0) (#155)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:15:26 AM EST

doubt Sanders is going to be close in SC. Even his supporters are shouting like 35% would be a great number for him.

One clip of his supporters booing Flint from a PAC and watch that number crater in a NY minute.

Parent

Chris (none / 0) (#154)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:10:08 AM EST

Christie is out. I'm waiting on some others. I would if the GOP is encouraging Fiorina and Carson to stay in to play the part of useful idiots.

I Am Hoping they Keep it to 4... (none / 0) (#159)
by ScottW714 on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:19:45 AM EST

... and the brokered convention prediction plays out.

Christie is one of the few politicians that I just dislike to the core. He is everything politics should not be.

I wish he would have kept his feelings about Rubio to himself because he would have been the easiest to beat.

Parent

Yeah (none / 0) (#161)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:26:45 AM EST

he definitely did the GOP a favor by taking out Rubio. I guess Rubio is going to hang around for a while longer though how much longer is anyone's guess. I have to laugh at the media though. The media morons were so fluffing this guy and Christie took him down with such ease.

Parent

: Hey... (none / 0) (#164)
by kdog on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:37:21 AM EST

he promised to never short circuit again for the rest of the campaign...the robot will rise again in the South!

Parent

I don't know man... (none / 0) (#163)
by kdog on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:36:04 AM EST

I'd have Christie over for dinner long before that Cruz character.

Parent

Yeah, me too (5.00 / 1) (#176)
by ruffian on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:59:55 AM EST

Rather have him as POTUS too, if it came down to it. Which it obviously won't!

Parent

: A testament to... (5.00 / 1) (#181)
by kdog on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:09:13 AM EST

the lunatic field, Christie would be my second least awful option after Kasich. Kasich may not be human, but at least he can play one on TV.
But alas, the goomba from Jersey is suspending his shampaign.

Parent

Ok, Now That Everyone Has Vented About How... (none / 0) (#169)
by ScottW714 on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:47:33 AM EST

...unfair everyone and everything is to Clinton, can we talk about the actual worse part of last night, Trump.

I mean F, is this guy going to be the nominee. Right now he looks unstoppable. Who can beat him, Cruz, no way, Kasich, who ?, and Rubio and Bush don't have a chance. Kasich seems like the only hope, not as a party, but as a country.

This is scary, even if HRC & Sanders people stay with the party at election time, it's still going to be a tight race and I think the drum beat of unfairness, especially when it directed at voters that will be needed in the general isn't doing anyone any favors.

For the record, as someone who is not decided, all this complaining about the press not giving her a fair shake only leads to to wonder if the same people think she is going to get a fair shake if elected. It's practically an argument to not vote for her. If true it means she is going to spent 4/8 years being beaten down day in and day out by the press, not exactly a ringing endorsement of any candidate.

Back in reality, she is getting treated like someone who will most likely win, but just lost a primary by a large number, but it was predicted and all the apocalyptic non-sense would be playing out if she wasn't in the race and the same thing happened to someone else in her position, IMO.

Clinton is going to win the nomination IMO, and she can do it without going after Sanders supporters.

I might even concede that she's been treated a little bit unfairly, but no more so then her getting a good majority of the super delegates, nearly all, as mentioned in #147:
Delegates
Clinton 394
Sanders 42

Since that is what counts, let's get past all the other BS and talk about the real threat to democrats, Donald Trump. How do we slow this guy down, get him out before the general ?

First anti-Trump ad from Cruz. Not bad.

Let's do that (none / 0) (#171)
by CaptHowdy on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:52:57 AM EST

If Bernie by some miracle wins the nomination we are going to have a third party candidate. Bloomberg. Who is ten times as rich as Trump and unlike Donald is totally willing to sound his money.
This is not speculation. It's a fact. You what a three way race that could easily go to Trump, root for Sanders.

Parent

Bloomberg is going to run to get Trump elected? (none / 0) (#175)
by Dadler on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:58:56 AM EST

Come on, my man, if you believe that, I really have to differ. Seriously. And I have spent a decade of time in the deep south visiting my old man, so I know where you're coming from. At least I hope I do. If Sanders gets the nom and Bloomberg runs, I will lay my stack on the line that Sanders has the imagination to eviscerate that empty-headed billionaire piece of stop-and-frisk nonsense. Not enough angry old white people to win an election for a neck anymore. Those days are over. Locally, sure they can win. Nationally, forget it, the Repubs are dead presidents. Literally.

Parent

With all due respect (none / 0) (#177)
by CaptHowdy on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:04:02 AM EST

If you think the south is going to support a socialist from Vermont over Donald, you don't know squat about the south.

Parent

I think his point was (none / 0) (#178)
by CST on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:05:26 AM EST

only the south would. Which I think is maybe true. But I agree with you that not only the south would support him over Bloomberg. He's a real threat.

Parent

Lots of Dems all over the place (none / 0) (#180)
by jbindc on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:07:53 AM EST

Would support Bloomberg.

Parent

They might (none / 0) (#183)
by CaptHowdy on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:15:26 AM EST

But the race would be between Bloomberg, a liberal gun control pro life "republican" and Donald. Sanders would be a weak third.

Parent

I thought (none / 0) (#185)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:17:57 AM EST

Bloomberg was pro choice.

However I agree about Sanders being a weak third. I read an article that said Sanders base of support in the country is 24%. I seriously doubt he would go much above that in a general election.

Parent

: Bloomberg (5.00 / 3) (#207)
by CoralGables on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 12:12:29 PM EST

is fiscally conservative and socially liberal. I'm sure Jim will be 100% behind him (okay now I'm just having fun)

Parent
: Sorry (none / 0) (#186)
by CaptHowdy on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:19:26 AM EST

I meant pro choice.

Parent

I will gladly repeat (none / 0) (#179)
by CaptHowdy on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:07:26 AM EST

If Bloomberg runs against Dinakd and Bernie, Donald will win.

You can book mark this comment to hit me with later.

IMO it will not happen. Bernie is going away. Bloomberg will probably not run as a result.

Parent

No (none / 0) (#182)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:11:04 AM EST

Bloomberg is running to get himself elected. He apparently sees a huge opening if it's Trump vs. Sanders.

Parent

Tell (none / 0) (#184)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:15:38 AM EST

that to Nathan Deal who got 60% of the vote in 2014 here in GA. And he ran against a much better candidate than Bernie Sanders for governor here.

Parent

Guess You Missed the Part... (none / 0) (#187)
by ScottW714 on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:22:27 AM EST

...where I said she was going to win the nomination, or you aren't done whining about Sanders supporters ?

Clinton is going to win the nomination IMO, and she can do it without going after Sanders supporters.

Parent

Good for you (none / 0) (#190)
by CaptHowdy on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:25:06 AM EST

As for me I think the Democratic Party has lost its mind. I'm not at all sure of the outcome.

Parent

two states (none / 0) (#194)
by CST on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:31:00 AM EST

I dunno, I think MA goes for Hillary at least. I just don't see where he gets enough delegates from.

We've had two small rural white states. Let's not panic yet.

Parent

: And (5.00 / 1) (#198)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:35:50 AM EST

she won one of them. I'm sure the media is encouraging the panic though.

Parent
: I think you mean... (5.00 / 1) (#200)
by kdog on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:37:16 AM EST

lets not get excited yet;)

Parent

I Would Agree... (none / 0) (#201)
by ScottW714 on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:37:42 AM EST

... like herding cats, as they say.

Parent

I can't even begin to answer that (none / 0) (#172)
by CST on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:53:04 AM EST

Because I suspect it has to do with the second republican candidate you mentioned running anti-Trump ads, and I'm not convinced he's better.

That being said, it's terrifying that the Republicans are about to elect the man, and the only upside is to remember that right now he's only getting 35% of 50% of the vote and I hope to goodness that that represents something close to his ceiling.

Parent

The good thing about... (none / 0) (#173)
by kdog on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:56:15 AM EST

Trump is either you're all in or all out, there's no middle ground with that maniac...and I think 65% of the voting public is firmly in the all out column and would never in a million years pull a lever for the guy.

Parent

Denial (none / 0) (#174)
by CaptHowdy on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 10:57:42 AM EST

Ain't just a river in Egypt

Parent

True... (none / 0) (#193)
by ScottW714 on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:30:34 AM EST

... but it's more about who shows up then who won't vote for him. That 35% can turn into 50% should his supporters come out in force and that seems likely.

Parent

: True... (5.00 / 2) (#204)
by kdog on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:39:30 AM EST

but I think defeating Donald will get people to the polls in November too, even if they're not crazy about Hillary.

Parent

Don't forget. Those super-delegates (none / 0) (#192)
by oculus on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:30:09 AM EST

can be quite fickle.

Parent

: They can (none / 0) (#199)
by jbindc on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:35:53 AM EST

But I don't think many of them are gonna jump because Bernie one a primary in a lily white state.

Parent
: Super-delegates (none / 0) (#203)
by CoralGables on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:38:51 AM EST

can be fickle but in this case they will go even stronger to Clinton. There is a reason the Supers are Democrats.
In the end the Supers will just be the cherry on top. Can Sanders win 3 states? If so he better find a caucus he can win from here on out. Otherwise he'll keep falling further behind every single primary day just as he did last night.

Parent

In case you missed it (none / 0) (#188)
by CaptHowdy on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:23:05 AM EST

Allow me to repeat.

Donald is going to be the republican nominee. It would be helpful if we start getting our minds around this. I know it's difficult and counter media meme. But it's comîng.

You can bookmark this comment too.

1968 (none / 0) (#189)
by thomas rogan on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:24:01 AM EST

Eugene McCarthy could never have been the nominee. He knocked out LBJ (who had the savvy and class to drop out of the race when he was rejected), and then more reasonable candidates such as RFK and Humphrey appeared.

It is sad that Democrats are so saddled with the overarching personal ambition of Hillary Clinton and with her baggage. She needs to go. Then others (like Elizabeth Warren who is lying in wait) can come in. No one believes that Sanders would be the nominee if Hillary left.

No one believes? (5.00 / 1) (#191)
by CaptHowdy on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:26:22 AM EST

Dude.
Seriously.

You need to get out more

Parent

Your overarching personal analysis (5.00 / 1) (#195)
by CoralGables on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:33:41 AM EST

is horribly wrong.

Hillary isn't leaving and Warren isn't lying in wait.

Parent

Elizabeth Warren (none / 0) (#196)
by jbindc on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:34:32 AM EST

Is a other liberal fantasy that needs to die now (the fantasy part, not EW).

She has the same problem as BS and that is little to no interest / experience in foreign policy. I know it'sounds been pretty much ignored this primary season, but it matters a heck of a lot to most people who are political junkies, and that includes many people who would be open to voting with her economic stances.

Give it up. EW is not going to be president at time soon.

Parent

: she has a bigger problem than Bernie (none / 0) (#202)
by CST on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:37:58 AM EST

which is little to no interest in being president.
Seriously, this needs to die.

Parent

JB (none / 0) (#205)
by ScottW714 on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 11:43:09 AM EST

thomas rogan is not a liberal and I don't think any of the liberals here think Warren is lying in wait, no, I know they don't, so please don't attribute one dumb comment to liberal fantasy.

jb (none / 0) (#208)
by CoralGables on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 12:13:50 PM EST

Which part is the fantasy? Sanders needing a running mate or Warren accepting it? Never mind. It's an overly complicated fantasy.

The Art of the Deal... (none / 0) (#209)
by ScottW714 on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 01:11:29 PM EST

... has been made into a 50 min mockumentary.

Donald Trump's The Art of the Deal: The Movie, which was made for the site co-founded by Will Ferrell, stars Johnny Depp in the central role with support provided by Ron Howard, Alfred Molina and Christopher Lloyd. It takes its title from the controversial businessman turned politician's 1987 best-seller. The spoof is pitched as a TV movie, made by Trump, to illuminate his road to success and provide tips for others to follow.

That sounds hilarious.

"We had a few people sign non-disclosures, but mostly we just begged people not to say anything," Burke said. "The plan was to move really fast because we thought Trump would go away, as least as a presidential candidate. When he bizarrely didn't go away, we had a little more time. But that meant keeping the secret for longer."

The Art of the Deal (none / 0) (#210)
by jondee on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 01:43:38 PM EST

Vitally important lesson number one:

First, inherit 20 million dollars..

So, when does the revolution start? (none / 0) (#211)
by jbindc on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 01:56:00 PM EST

Turnout in NH on Dem side was down last night by around 50,000 from 2008. The Dems got 20,000 fewer votes than all the ones cast for the Republicans as well.

Yes, who can forget 2008? (none / 0) (#212)
by jondee on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 02:09:35 PM EST

When Obama was the liberal-fantasy bad guy (all the time), who was standing in the way of the candidate with experience..

sj (none / 0) (#216)
by jbindc on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 02:21:20 PM EST

Since mo one expected her to win NH, and since his entire plan (as he himself has repeatedly said) is "drawing new people to the polls", the onus is much more on him.

I know....facts hurt.

Not smug - just talking about his own statements.

The pundits are trying to sell drama (none / 0) (#217)
by jondee on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 02:26:49 PM EST

and tension and controversy which equals "excitement" which equals better ratings..

Hence the "revolution" hyperbole.

No one in the media, or very very few, are trying to stir up some sort of groundswell to thwart a particular candidate's ambitions, even though it may feel that way.

You know Scott (none / 0) (#219)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 02:48:20 PM EST

Iowa was almost universally bad for Sanders as far as demographics went. Maybe NH is because Bernie is from a neighboring state. It would be like taking the LA primary and extrapolating it against everything else. The truth is each state is different and tells a different story and reveals a different piece of the puzzle. We're down 2 and have 48 more to go. It's likely that Bernie may not even win the millennial vote in SC and NV.

I would (none / 0) (#221)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 03:39:50 PM EST

say NV and SC will show a lot in the next few weeks.

If Bloomberg gets in he probably would win if it was Sanders and Trump. According to an analysis at Vox Sanders support is about 24% in a general election and I would guess Trump has a similar number. It's conceivable that Bloomberg could get almost 50% of the vote with those two candidates.

For sure (none / 0) (#222)
by smott on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 04:56:56 PM EST

If Bloomberg is in, Bernie is 3rd.

I wonder if a Brokered GOP Convention ousts Donald and drafts McCain or some other insanity, and we wind up with a 4-way....

Bernie is still 3rd, or maybe 4th.

But I think as soon as Clinton begins to look non-viable, perhaps even as soon as post-SC, then Bloomberg will get organized.

And could we please (none / 0) (#223)
by smott on Wed Feb 10, 2016 at 04:57:40 PM EST

Get a new thread??

NH Primary Thread | 223 comments (223 topical)

NH Primary Thread

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