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Dem Primary South Carolina

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2016
Posted on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 08:52:13 AM EST
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Should be a big day for Hilary Clinton in South Carolina today and may be followed by a big Super Tuesday 3 days later.

The results may define the contours of the contest from that point, or perhaps the March 15 contests (when Florida and Ohio vote) will do that.

What I mean by that is these contests MAY relegate Sanders to a "message" candidate, which is not unimportant by the way. But it does lower the tolerance for negative attacks. Remember how Hillary Clinton should have dropped in February of 2008? When she was nearly tied? I would think Sanders wouldn't be asked to drop out, just drop the attacks.

Anyway, I'm getting ahead of the voters which is always a mistake. Let the voters vote! Starting in South Carolina today.

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    Dem Primary South Carolina | 147 comments (147 topical)

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    I'm not really looking forward (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 09:44:46 AM EST
    To Hillary clearly taking the lead. I have enjoyed how much my son has learned politically and how politically engaged he has become following Sanders.

    Not looking forward to this crushed spirit one little bit. As Sanders has held his own it has energized my son who needs all the energy he can get some days.

    I hate (5.00 / 3) (#4)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 09:52:11 AM EST
    that for him. However, I'm not going to be too upset to see the Bro Troll meltdowns on Twitter.

    Parent
    I have avoided the trolls this season (none / 0) (#6)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 11:11:14 AM EST
    I avoided watching the last Republican debate too. Heard on Maher though it was the most disgusting shock event yet.


    Parent
    I get avoiding the news (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 11:19:05 AM EST
    I do it sometimes.

    But the debates.  That last debate was, .... amazing.

    Unlike any in modern history.  Thanks to the inter webs we don't have to see it in real time but everyone should see that.
    I really think they should.

    There is no describing what it was like to watch men who could be the most powerful man on earth behave like that.

    You need to SEE it.


    Parent

    I'm watching Rubio right now (none / 0) (#17)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 11:59:00 AM EST
    He's punching so hard, where ever the Donald is, the breeze coming off Rubio ruffled his hair :)

    We've been under a lot of stress. Josh is having some respiratory problems that are still not figured out yet. Might require more surgery....sigh

    Parent

    Honestly I find it nauseating (none / 0) (#55)
    by smott on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 05:14:43 PM EST
    It's the collapse of our country.
    Truly.
    It's very sad.


    Parent
    No, it's not. (5.00 / 2) (#112)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:37:56 PM EST
    But it could very well portend the imminent collapse and implosion of the Republican Party as we presently know it, as a precursor to a substantial political realignment in our country.

    Parent
    I hope you're right Donald (none / 0) (#137)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 10:13:35 PM EST
    As I noted below, on Bill Maher both Michael Hayden and Maher consider the country to be such a majority of bed wetters, that a successful terrorist attack in October could net us a President Trump.

    Parent
    Thank you for reminding me ... (none / 0) (#140)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 11:09:40 PM EST
    ... why I don't pay any attention to terminal cynics like Maher.

    Parent
    It was (none / 0) (#21)
    by Amiss on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 12:12:58 PM EST
    really funny, if you like dark comedy. That is the only reason I watched the TOP debates.

    Parent
    i hate autocheck (none / 0) (#32)
    by Amiss on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 12:56:14 PM EST
    GOP

    Parent
    What Sanders does (5.00 / 5) (#5)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 09:54:55 AM EST
    To help those like your son understand that is how it works will determine his legacy.

    I would suggest a role model for him.   Hillary Clinton 2008.

    Parent

    Completely agree (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 11:13:40 AM EST


    Parent
    MT: And, I'll bet that the principal model (5.00 / 2) (#44)
    by christinep on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 03:44:26 PM EST
    You, MT, will help him navigate the complexities, challenges of the changing political terrain as he grows ... and, you'll do it with a passion that inspires passion for good government and genuine leaders.  

    My Dad left me with so many gifts of himself ... and, one of the most memorable personal legacies was his political guidance as a tremendously caring person and a full-throated liberal.  And, I have a feeling from your many focused comments here, that your reflection for your son on this election <should the results not meet his dreams> will turn any initial political sadness into an uplifting door-opener about what is to come.  Really. I've drawn on my Dad's early political honesty & encouragement throughout my life ... trust me, your counsel will matter.  Best wishes.

    Parent

    Thank you (none / 0) (#53)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 04:44:59 PM EST
    You are always insightful.

    He is really grumpy most days right now. Full puberty :) He has been doing his own work this election cycle. Most of the kids in high school here are Republican. I can't say they are Conservative because I'm not sure they know what Conservative principles are. They seem to be for team red.

    Josh's lunch comes home half eaten because he's too busy talking. And if during the day I discover an interesting Bernie tidbit I discover he was way ahead of me finding that out.

    Their minds are so quick, and their smart phone capabilities even quicker. I don't think he'll be disappointed in the Hillary Clinton Presidency, but Sanders was addressing everything that challenges Josh right now, healthcare and college.

    And Sanders seems gruff and grumpy sometimes, but the kids love him.

    Parent

    However, for my dotter and nieces (5.00 / 10) (#11)
    by Towanda on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 11:36:39 AM EST
    and other young women and girls, this is an amazing time.  For the first time in our hundreds of years of history, they may see -- on this day in history -- a woman with a clear path to a presidential nomination by a major political party.

    And I have enjoyed taking my dotter and a niece to a Clinton rally, months ago -- where I also witnessed thousands of students, including many young men, energized and politically engaged by a role model who doesn't happen to have the same anatomy.  

    I see the impact of this on my son and son-in-law, too, and I imagine the marvelous fathers that they will be to my grandotters-to-be.  That's a far different world from the one in which I grew up; I loved my father, but the man was a misogynist . . . and I still see the impact of that on my brothers, and their sons -- and dotters.

    Parent

    It will be a great day, Towanda (5.00 / 4) (#45)
    by christinep on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 03:58:39 PM EST
    I cannot allow myself to think down the road to the nomination and beyond .. because, as the days move, the emotion wells up inside as I consider the possibility for now and for those young women here and those yet to come.

    In another thread, you made reference to the dearth of elected female officeholders at the gubernatorial and senatorial level.  On a we-still-have-lots-to-do note: Colorado has not come close to having a woman governor nor senator yet; and, other mountain states such as Wyoming, Montana, Utah, Idaho hold the same dismal record.

    Tomorrow, husband & I are scheduled to knock doors to Get Out The Caucus vote for Hillary.  Our caucus will be on Tuesday evening.

    Parent

    I am watching the victory speech (5.00 / 7) (#91)
    by Towanda on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:54:10 PM EST
    and I am simply overcome by this moment.  

    I remember this day, eight years ago.  And I did not know if I would live to see this day.

    I know there are h*llish days ahead.  I know that the Republicans are ready to do their worst.  I know that the Dems still can f*ck this up.  

    But . . . there is this day, for which so many women -- and good men -- have been struggling for well more than a century.

    And about the "century of struggle," imagine if a woman is president on -- and we're already amid planning for the centennial -- August 26, 2020. . . .  

    Nope.  Can't get ahead of this, again.  This is enough.  This day.

    Parent

    I'm struck again that I didn't know how (5.00 / 6) (#92)
    by ruffian on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:58:28 PM EST
    much it meant to me until I see it happening. Just shows how ingrained the 'that's just not possible' idea was.

    Parent
    Yeah, trying to get my Sanders' .... (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by magster on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 12:21:10 PM EST
    ... supporting 18 year old to caucus with me even though I'm going to caucus for Clinton. Want her to catch the "I'm involved" bug.

    Parent
    You betcha, (none / 0) (#37)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 02:22:54 PM EST
    Fully understand where you are coming from.

    Parent
    Great plan, magster (none / 0) (#46)
    by christinep on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 04:01:09 PM EST
    I'm in CO congressional district 1.  Are you in that CD?

    Parent
    Let's hope that how Sanders handles (5.00 / 3) (#31)
    by ruffian on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 12:46:19 PM EST
    not being the nominee will be as inspiring as his campaign.  His issues will still be here needing pressure put upon the presidents and congress, whoever they are, for a long  time to come.

    Parent
    The word is, all the Media (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by NYShooter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 11:57:18 AM EST
    are crash diving into their Trump, oppo research files, digging out the reams & reams of lies, failures, scams, deceits, law suits, and all the things that describe a different Donald than the one he's been permitted to foist on the public to date. It seems the debate the other night, where a glimmer of his history was, finally, uncovered, has unleashed a belated torrent of criticism for their heretofore slavish embrace of his self described greatness.

    All well and good, but, the only one it will help will be Hillary in The General. Trump's maniacal, rage-filled current followers are way past the stage of suddenly stopping, and, thoughtfully rethinking their positions. That train left the station a long time ago.

    IMO, in the long run, the complete & total capitulation of the Media in abandoning even the pretense of informing the public will go down as at least as big a story as The Donald himself.

    Anyway, I'm breathing a little bit easier now for Hil's prospects in November.

    Joy Reid of MSNBC (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by sallywally on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 12:23:23 PM EST
    complaining last night that the MEDIA had to end up finding this Trump data! Whose responsibility did she think it was?

    Parent
    Oh for pity's sake (5.00 / 2) (#33)
    by Towanda on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 01:04:57 PM EST
    -- that is pathetic.

    Once again, when I look up the training of these sorts of "journalists," I am not surprised:

    She attended Harvard.  Fine, but no journalism school or even journalism courses.

    She majored in film.  

    Parent

    And speaking of MSNBC, ... (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 01:23:18 PM EST
    ... Melissa Harris-Perry has walked off her show, in protest over being repeatedly pre-empted of late without any warning whatsoever by MSNBC honchos, in favor of their network's continued Trump-fluffin-- excuse me, I mean their ongoing live election coverage.

    Dr. Harris-Perry feels that they've been disrespectful of her, which they most certainly are. After all, she's a professor at Wake Forest University in North Carolina, who for the last four years has commuted to New York on weekends to do her show. To have arrived at the network's Rockefeller Center studios as she has over these past few weekends, only to then be told that her show would not air that day, prompted her following remarks:

    "I am not a token, mammy or little brown bobble head. I am not owned by [NBC News chief Andrew] Lack, [MSNBC President Phil] Griffin or MSNBC. I love our show. I want it back. [...] I care only about substantive, meaningful and autonomous work. When we can do that, I will return -- not a moment earlier."

    "It is perfectly fine, 100 percent reasonable and perfectly acceptable for MSNBC to decide they no longer want the M.H.P. show. But they should say that. They should cancel the show; they should stand up. And maybe it would be rewarded with huge ratings, but they shouldn't kill us by attrition and take us off the air without telling anybody, including us. That for me is what's painful and difficult."

    Joy Reid will be guest-hosting today and tomorrow.

    Parent

    She sounds like a baby (5.00 / 2) (#38)
    by CoralGables on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 02:26:58 PM EST
    much like a ballplayer that arrives at the clubhouse and told he's not playing that day, so he goes home complaining he isn't being respected and isn't going to return. My reaction to both of them would be the same...good riddance.

    Parent
    Her last paragraph (5.00 / 2) (#40)
    by Towanda on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 03:04:43 PM EST
    hardly sounds childish to me.  

    She does have students (she is teaching this semester, and I've checked the syllabus . . . and it is getting to midterm now).  She runs two centers on campus (that means staff with schedules, too).  She -- anybody -- does deserve notice of cancellation before having to make arrangements for coverage back on campus, affecting schedules of students, faculty, staff, too, as well as and travel arrangements and more.  

    I think that she has made the wise decision as to the long-term direction of her career.  

    Parent

    Exactly, and thank you. (5.00 / 2) (#119)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 08:07:05 PM EST
    About seven years ago, I was hired to conduct a marketing and feasibility study by a large organization that was HQ'd outside Oakland, CA. I scheduled a trip up there to meet personally with and interview the CEO and senior management, all of whom were aware of my arrangements over two weeks prior to my arrival. But when I arrived, I was curtly informed that the CEO had decided to take the week off and went to Lake Tahoe, and that we had to reschedule. Further, other administrative staff were busy and unable to meet with me for the next two days.

    I returned to my hotel, and changed my flight reservations to return to Honolulu the next morning. After getting back home, I invoiced the organization for my expenses and further charged them for the entire four days which I had been originally scheduled to spend there. I also informed them that since we were still within the first 30 days of our contract, I was hereby invoking the provision allowing either party to opt out without penalty, and suggested that the CEO might be happier with hiring someone in-state. And for good measure, I cc'd the organization's entire board of directors.

    I don't know anybody who appreciates having his or her time wasted so cavalierly like that. What MSNBC management has been doing to Dr. Harris-Perry is thoroughly unprofessional. I mean, honestly, how hard is it for them to just pick up the phone and call her, to inform her that they don't need her in New York that weekend? It's called common courtesy.

    Aloha.

    Parent

    If HMP is complaining (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 03:38:35 PM EST
    It almost certainly not just about Donald.   But Hillary too.   She is a high profile high profile Hillary hater.

    Parent
    It's got nothing to do with either candidate. (5.00 / 2) (#113)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:43:20 PM EST
    It has everything to do with the clearly disrespectful manner in which she's being treated by management.

    Parent
    And she's been fired (none / 0) (#139)
    by CoralGables on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 10:53:52 PM EST
    which is what she deserved.

    Parent
    That's great. (none / 0) (#141)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 11:12:56 PM EST
    Now you can watch Chuck Todd and Mark Halperin seven days a week, or get another four hours' fix of "Lockup." Either way they go, enjoy.

    Parent
    just skip MSNBC... (none / 0) (#143)
    by Cashmere on Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 12:40:50 PM EST
    just skip MSNBC...  There are other better shows to watch.  I agree with the poster above, MHP was very unfair to the point of Clinton hatred which made me stop watching her long ago.

    Parent
    All that oppo research (5.00 / 1) (#56)
    by smott on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 05:21:02 PM EST
    Is just a teensy bit late.
    But hey they were busy investigating Benghazi and emails.

    Parent
    Sorry again, (none / 0) (#20)
    by NYShooter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 12:12:16 PM EST
    didn't realize it wasn't an O.T.

    But, its your fault, Big Tent. You're here so rarely you got me all nervous, and shook up.

    Parent

    Crash Diving? (none / 0) (#22)
    by FlJoe on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 12:15:03 PM EST
    I  stumbled on all the topics Rubio brought up, months ago without even trying.

    Parent
    I seriously (none / 0) (#29)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 12:28:36 PM EST
    doubt the media is doing this. They have had months to do it and have not done it. I think the GOP is now gathering up oppo research and feeding it to the press. The press is too lazy to do this by themselves IMO.

    I agree with you on his supporters. They know his history and they don't care.

    Parent

    hillary vs trump (none / 0) (#34)
    by pitachips on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 01:05:57 PM EST
    hillary will win in a landslide of epic proportions. i'm surprised when i hear/read people giving him a chance. he may be lucky to get 35% of his own party's votes. are there some democrats who may switch over to vote for him? of course - the same group that always threatens to switch over because they think our nominee is "too liberal."

    but beyond that hillary will start out with a nice cushion due via AA/Hispanic/Women, not to mention once responsible people start paying attention, most will be horrified at the prospect of donald trump representing our nation for the next 4 years.

    i understand that the media (both old and new) need to create a narrative of a close race. all of these national polls are meaningless at this point. at the end of the day this will not be much of an election.

    Parent

    No idea (none / 0) (#77)
    by smott on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:25:19 PM EST
    Where you're coming from.
    He's already at 35% and that is a hard floor. The ceiling has yet to be found, and, unlike Dems, Repubs fall in line when it's time to vote.
    Even more so when they'll be motivated to stop tha evil Clinton.

    Trump will go up from his current 35% as candidates drop out.

    Clinton will have to win without 18-45 year olds plus white guys in general.

    Trump v Clinton will be very close.

    Parent

    Trump will take 18-45 year-olds? (none / 0) (#129)
    by sallywally on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 08:42:34 PM EST
    Sanders might have, but Trump??

    Parent
    No one is falling in line (none / 0) (#147)
    by pitachips on Mon Feb 29, 2016 at 05:28:18 PM EST
    GOPers all over the place stating they will not vote for Trump under any circumstances. Trump is running off the media helping to fuel his campaign. They need a race and as usual we the people fall for it. After Hillary wins I guarantee there will be tons of ink being spilled by our media elites asking how it was that we spent so much of 2016 under the assumption he had a chance.

    Parent
    Thinking today of (5.00 / 2) (#48)
    by Towanda on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 04:26:32 PM EST
    the late, great Shirley St. Hill Chisholm:

    "When I ran for the Congress, when I ran for president, I met more discrimination as a woman than for being black. Men are men."

    In your memory, in your honor, may this be another historic day.

    Today is Day 1 (5.00 / 2) (#51)
    by CoralGables on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 04:34:45 PM EST
    of a historic run. I have a daughter.
    I'm with her.

    Parent
    Well, history was made (5.00 / 2) (#57)
    by Towanda on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 05:34:56 PM EST
    a week ago, too, when a woman won a state a second time.

    But nobody noticed, but me.  Because: Bernie.

    Parent

    Prof. Towanda is a professional historian (5.00 / 3) (#138)
    by Peter G on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 10:26:53 PM EST
    So when she says, "History was made," I believe her.

    Parent
    If only I were a historian of the law (5.00 / 3) (#142)
    by Towanda on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 11:39:58 PM EST
    to have the context that you do for so much of what we discuss on this blog -- but I sure learn from it.

    As it happens, my students in one of my classes -- one that is online -- were taking a test tonight.  (Well, they had three days to do so, but the last of them took it tonight.)  

    I wrote a few new questions tonight, offered as extra credit -- fill-in-the-blanks questions on current events that are making history.  It is a U.S. women's history class, after all. . . .

    And also as it happens, in one of my other classes -- one with hundreds of students, in U.S. history since the Civil War -- we just got to the early 20th century this week, with a discussion of Populism and Progressivism and, of course, Socialism.  That was a fun discussion.  

    The class cracked up at the ol' lady talking about when, instead of "feeling the Bern," the first Socialist elected to Congress won, 105 years ago, because the voters were "feeling the Berger."

    We also had fun discussing the amazing work of women in all of those movements and more -- and students were surprised to learn that political marriages are nothin' new, with the likes of campaign manager, speechwriter, and co-editor Belle Case La Follette and the first woman and first Socialist elected to lead a school board in a major city, Meta Schlichting Berger.  

    By the way, I highly recommend the latter's long-unpublished autobiography -- A Woman's Life on the Left -- now finally in print.  She hints at the story of how she first won office, only because Herr Berger left town.  And don't miss the footnote about their daughter's guess that her mother managed to have her career because she used birth control, unbeknownst to Herr Berger.  He had expected her to be a stay-at-home hausfrau.  It was an interesting marriage. . . .

    Parent

    But nobody noticed, (none / 0) (#64)
    by NYShooter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:03:03 PM EST
    but me.  Because: Bernie.

    boo-hoo

    You know what, Towanda? I'm going to print that out, frame it, and whip it out on election night so I can stare at it as they're referring to our girl, not as Secretary Clinton, but, "Madame President-Elect, Hillary Rodham Clinton!"


    Parent

    Hillary wins blacks over 65 by 93 points (5.00 / 1) (#80)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:35:04 PM EST
    Not a typeo

    96 to 3

    also, (none / 0) (#131)
    by NYShooter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 08:52:28 PM EST
    She won 96% of African-Americans in the 65+ block.

    Just a blockbuster night!

    Parent

    No excitement deficit here (5.00 / 3) (#86)
    by ruffian on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:46:59 PM EST
    Big grin.

    Only among (none / 0) (#89)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:49:50 PM EST
    The MSNBC news team.

    Parent
    I guess (5.00 / 3) (#90)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:51:17 PM EST
    they are going to whine all the way to November. They might need psychiatric help in 2017.

    Parent
    Chuck Todd looks sick (none / 0) (#102)
    by ruffian on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:20:04 PM EST


    Parent
    And (none / 0) (#104)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:21:50 PM EST
    Not excited

    Parent
    Andrea Mitchell (none / 0) (#145)
    by KeysDan on Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 02:50:58 PM EST
    found time to talk emails.

    Parent
    Dang this is a good speech (5.00 / 4) (#94)
    by ruffian on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:01:39 PM EST
    I might just enjoy this campaign.

    Yeah (5.00 / 2) (#99)
    by lilburro on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:16:32 PM EST
    they've been finding their feet, "making America whole" is another great message, a more positive spin on not being a single issue candidate.

    Amazingly, that Clemson poll that had her up 50 might be the only correct one.

    Parent

    Hillary (5.00 / 3) (#96)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:06:33 PM EST
    excites nobody according to the pundits but apparently they have record turn out in SC.

    Love and kindness (5.00 / 1) (#100)
    by Towanda on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:17:22 PM EST
    is the new hope and change.

    CNN says so.

    (And that was the focus of an extraordinary interview with Clinton that I read. . . )

    First one with the t-shirts can make a fortune.

    Clever slogan (5.00 / 2) (#115)
    by Trickster on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:56:31 PM EST
    It works against both Sanders and Trump, for different reasons.

    Against Sanders, it's a defense to the attack that she's not in it to help the downtrodden and less successful.  Against Trump, it's the sheer contrast.  It plays very well against him.

    Parent

    Unlike MSNBC (none / 0) (#103)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:20:41 PM EST
    They were beginning to ask why is Bernie still in the race.

    Parent
    Final result will be +48% (5.00 / 1) (#116)
    by AX10 on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:57:16 PM EST
    Berns was blown out of the water, a nice preview to Tuesday.  DU/Kos are still saying SC doesn't matter.  It does.  Hillary is 45.

    It matters (none / 0) (#118)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 08:06:50 PM EST
    in the sense that it's indicative of the south. I don't know what the margins are going to be here in GA but I do know she will win.

    Parent
    She will also get more delegates ... (none / 0) (#124)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 08:23:03 PM EST
    from the state than anyone expected.

    It looks like she'll probably have at least a 25 pledged delegate lead after SC.

    Parent

    There's no good way to spin that one. (none / 0) (#128)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 08:40:35 PM EST
    Having spent over $2 million in South Carolina,  sent 200 staffers there and opened 11 campaign offices across the state, Bernie Sanders just bought himself one of the finest good ol' fashioned a$$ whippings he's ever going to see. Hillary Clinton's margin of victory is just staggering.

    Parent
    Man (5.00 / 1) (#117)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 08:04:45 PM EST
    that was a barn burner of a speech. Loved the young women in the back who were cheering.

    I wonder (none / 0) (#1)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 09:17:08 AM EST
    how long the pundits are going to say "it's too close to call" in SC before they call it?

    Since they are always looking to be first (none / 0) (#2)
    by CoralGables on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 09:42:36 AM EST
    Some network will call it as soon as the polls close just to get a jump on everyone else. So I'll get the jump on them with the assistance of my exit poll of one voter from SC:

    Projected WINNER in South Carolina is Hillary Clinton.

    It's being framed (none / 0) (#9)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 11:26:57 AM EST
    That anything less than a 20 point Hillary win is a loss.

    That's a frame that has no chance of sticking (none / 0) (#10)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 11:34:08 AM EST


    Parent
    Well (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 11:36:50 AM EST
    MSNBC.

    you know...

    Parent

    I hate that (4.00 / 4) (#24)
    by Amiss on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 12:19:46 PM EST
    they are giving her such a big lead on the tube, it tells voters that she is so far ahead their vote doesn't count.

    Parent
    Not sure if you're saying (none / 0) (#18)
    by NYShooter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 12:07:25 PM EST
    thee "framing" is high or low.

    Anyway, it does seem slightly strange to me that, with a 25-30 something lead going in, she's been spending so much time there. I mean S.C. is here now, and Sanders has been hitting it hard there, and, pulling in very large (7,000 - 9,000) exuberant crowds.

    Parent

    It's not about (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 12:21:10 PM EST
    winning SC so much as running up the score there. Bernie has virtually no constituency in SC outside of college students who are very unreliable when it comes to voting and most are going to have to either drive home to vote or are going to have to have ordered an absentee ballot before the voting today.

    Parent
    Someone in the campaign told MSNBC (none / 0) (#84)
    by ruffian on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:42:24 PM EST
    that they wanted her margin in SC to be as much as Bernie's was in NH.

    Parent
    Yeah (none / 0) (#88)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:49:20 PM EST
    I heard that but her win in SC is looking to be better than Bernie's in NH. Of course, it will never be called "historic" like Bernie's win in NH was.

    Parent
    Sorrry, my bad (none / 0) (#19)
    by NYShooter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 12:08:42 PM EST
    Got the states mixed up.

    Parent
    That was my second prediction (none / 0) (#13)
    by Towanda on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 11:37:53 AM EST
    this morning to my spouse.  

    My first prediction, of course, was that networks will call this at 7:02 p.m. -- only because of a 2-minute commercial break.

    Parent

    I understand (none / 0) (#14)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 11:53:54 AM EST
    Hillary has been having big events all week in SC trying to run up the score. We shall see if that has worked or not.

    Parent
    Under 15 would be a good showing for Bernie (none / 0) (#15)
    by Trickster on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 11:57:10 AM EST
    18 is a little tighter than the polls, but you can't get brag points out of an 18-point-loss unless it's your opponent's home state.

    But I'll personally be disappointed if it's under 20.

    Parent

    If Hillary wins MA and CO (none / 0) (#23)
    by magster on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 12:18:28 PM EST
    on Tuesday, coupled with an epic night for Trump, that might be the point where Bernie needs to consider the "greater good" and either drop out or get his supporters in an anti-Trump mindset rather than an anti-Hillary one.

    Parent
    538 is (none / 0) (#27)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 12:22:49 PM EST
    now giving her a pretty big chance of carrying MA which is pretty surprising IMO. I don't know what is going to happen in CO.

    Parent
    Sanders chances in Colorado may be blunted (none / 0) (#36)
    by Valhalla on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 02:09:20 PM EST
    by their caucus rules.  You have to register to vote 29 days in advance, and need to be a member of the party you're caucusing with for at least 2 months prior.  Independents' participation favoring Sanders will be limited.

    Mass. went for Clinton by 15 points in 2008.  Not a lot of recent polling but the trend, if there is one, is moving for Clinton.  I think the polls favoring Sanders here were mostly due to a big post-NH bump.  But we'll see.

    Parent

    Living & caucusing in Colorado (none / 0) (#47)
    by christinep on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 04:23:54 PM EST
    I confess to having no real sense of what will happen at the caucuses on Tuesday.  

    No external polling here; and, when husband & I were at a meeting with HRC staff training caucus leaders mid-week, the recently-settled Iowa crew could not provide much info/scuttlebutt as to the situation in our congressional district (Denver.)  Looking at the downside--based on experience in turnout--I'd expect the area that I live in to go for Sanders ... especially, given the significant student/young people/older bookstore owners & the like.  Certainly, Boulder will be big for Sanders.  I'll be interested in: (1) The Latino turnout in the 1st and 3rd districts (2) The Mesa County turnout on the west slope, and (surprisingly) (3) The turnout from Colorado Springs (yes ... Dems live there in some places.) In ColoSprgs, there was quite a large turnout after Nevada per Denver Post headline of "Bill Clinton packs 'em in."  

    I do know from the organization types that the broader state has been staffed & well-covered for months.  If the organization holds ... maybe we can hold our own.  The total number of delegates allocated after the following county and state conventions will be 67, as I recall.

    Parent

    Mass is iffy (none / 0) (#41)
    by Coral on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 03:27:39 PM EST
    So many colleges and students here. I'm worried that Bernie may squeak by to a close win, though the polls have looked better for HRC recently. But still very close.

    Parent
    Yes (none / 0) (#42)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 03:35:44 PM EST
    but I read some of them might be on spring break? I don't know if that will come into play or not.

    Parent
    Mass. Spring Break (none / 0) (#54)
    by Valhalla on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 05:09:46 PM EST
    From my rather unscientific survey of MA colleges (state system + random privates), it looks like most schools don't go on break until later in March.  But Sanders would really have to GOTV in a big way for them to make a big difference.  The 18-29s were only 15% of voters in the 2008 primaries.  It will be interesting.

    Parent
    Turnout in S.C. is low to (none / 0) (#30)
    by Amiss on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 12:34:31 PM EST
    moderate. Over 50,000 absentee ballots, Hillary was going for a large turnout and the media convinces them they don't get out and vote, sadly.

    Really? (none / 0) (#79)
    by lilburro on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:31:54 PM EST
    Black turnout was even higher than in 2008, I am hearing.

    Parent
    Actually, % of turnout was higher (none / 0) (#98)
    by lilburro on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:12:02 PM EST
    don't know about actual numbers

    Parent
    For those thinking Sanders is still in it (none / 0) (#39)
    by CoralGables on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 02:32:55 PM EST
    Would any of you pick two states not named Vermont that haven't voted yet, and be willing to bet a hundred dollars that he wins both of them?

    As you try to think of two guaranteed winning states going forward right now for Sanders you realize the quandary his campaign is in.

    Some western caucus states (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by christinep on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 04:29:19 PM EST
    will go for Sanders, I believe  But--I get your point--he is in a tough position where the absolute count-on states are not there. On the east coast: Maybe Maine?

    Parent
    I early voted today (none / 0) (#49)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 04:26:50 PM EST


    Turnout here is reportedly (none / 0) (#52)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 04:38:03 PM EST
    Noticeably above average.

    Or so they say.

    Parent

    Hillary is (none / 0) (#59)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:00:06 PM EST
    their home girl :) or maybe it's all the Trump voters.

    Parent
    Well, that explains ... (none / 0) (#121)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 08:14:24 PM EST
    ... the sound of the paper shredder in the county clerk's office.
    ;-D

    Parent
    Judging from the chatter (none / 0) (#58)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 05:50:24 PM EST
    It sounds like we are expecting 20+

    Or more.  

    Chuck (none / 0) (#61)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:01:02 PM EST
    Todd's head will explode on TV then.

    Parent
    Nah (none / 0) (#65)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:04:18 PM EST
    He explained with Maddows help how the movement of the Sanders voters over to her was completely on her.  100% up to Hillary and her "behavior" how many of his voters stay home in November.

    No mention of Bernies role.

    Parent

    Her "behavior," huh? (5.00 / 1) (#69)
    by Towanda on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:17:44 PM EST
    I don't know you can watch MiSogynisticNBC.

    Parent
    It has become funny (none / 0) (#71)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:19:47 PM EST
    And desperate.thats the only word desperate.

    Parent
    Of course (none / 0) (#73)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:20:31 PM EST
    more concern trolling. It's all they ever seem to do these days.

    Parent
    Prediction (none / 0) (#60)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:00:08 PM EST
    CLINTON: 63%
    SANDERS: 36%

    Boy, did you underperform! (5.00 / 1) (#122)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 08:15:59 PM EST
    ;-D

    Parent
    Well (none / 0) (#62)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:01:47 PM EST
    so far you've been hitting pretty close.

    Parent
    I have some tough calls ... (none / 0) (#78)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:29:10 PM EST
    to make on Tuesday.

    Parent
    MSNBC calls for Hillary at 7 pm (none / 0) (#63)
    by sallywally on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:02:29 PM EST


    Exit polls make it look like a 30+ margin (none / 0) (#66)
    by Trickster on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:09:02 PM EST


    The first numbers ... (none / 0) (#68)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:16:09 PM EST
    have her leading by over 70%.

    Though I don't think that will hold.

    ;)

    Parent

    Consistent with updated exit polls (none / 0) (#93)
    by Trickster on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:00:59 PM EST
    The 30+ margin was from the first wave.  Now with more exit polls in, the projection is 75-25.

    As they always say, exit polls are always off.  What they don't usually say, though, is . . . not by more than 10%.  This looks like a win of 40 or more.

    A crushing win like that is likely to lead to more crushing wins on Tuesday.  Crushing wins in the South and a win in Massachussetts will really put the question to Sanders as to what are his aims in this race.

    Parent

    Wolfie on CNN just said (5.00 / 3) (#95)
    by Towanda on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:05:03 PM EST
    possibly a 40- to 50-point margin.

    He calls it a "shellacking."

    I call it crazee. . . .

    But it fits with so many stories that I have read of South Carolinians for Clinton in 2008 who were so stressed by that moment in history that came down to them.  They worked so hard, for months now, to give her -- and themselves -- this moment.

    Parent

    Chuck Todd still thinks there is some kind (none / 0) (#67)
    by ruffian on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:15:58 PM EST
    Of strategy Sanders could employ to beat Hillary- he can't figure out why they just won't do it.

    Amazing (none / 0) (#70)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:18:31 PM EST
    I was LOLing.

    They have become so blatantly biased in their coverage.  You wonder if they even hear themselves.

    Parent

    I was in shock (none / 0) (#72)
    by ruffian on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:20:26 PM EST
    "Why don't they play to win!?"

    Chuck,  I think they are doing e best they can. Really.

    Parent

    BTD (5.00 / 1) (#76)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:23:30 PM EST
    needs to show up and give Todd a lesson from his "demographics are destiny" series.

    These people are so freaking out of touch with the voters in this country it amazes me sometimes. They completely missed the rise of Trump and they also can't understand what is going on in SC. SC comes as no surprise to me at all.

    If you want to see one of the reasons why she is going to win so big check out the add that Morgan Freeman narrates.

    Parent

    I'm an Oregonian and a huge Clinton supporter.... (5.00 / 3) (#81)
    by Cashmere on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:37:36 PM EST
    Of course, Oregon never matters in primaries or anything else re: POTUS, but it is hard for me to believe that Hillary is going to win the nomination as in Portland (where I live and work), Bernie dominates..... again, I am just expressing my fears re: what i see and hear on a daily basis in my hometown.  I realize the rest of the country is not necessarily where this town is politically.    

    I enjoy coming to TalkLeft and reading all of your comments as it grounds me and makes me a bit more confident about where things are headed.  We shall see in the end, but thanks to you all!

    Parent

    Oregon Primary History (5.00 / 1) (#85)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:45:57 PM EST
    In 1948, the first broadcast presidential debate ever (on radio of course) occurred between Dewey and Stassen prior to the Oregon primary.  Dewey was thought to have won that debate. And went on to win the primary.

    Stassen, of course, never really got the message. And continued running for president for the rest of his life.

    In 1968, McCarthy beat Kennedy in the Oregon primary.  That was the first election a Kennedy had ever lost.

    Parent

    Well (5.00 / 1) (#87)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:47:21 PM EST
    I am not surprised to hear that is the way it is in Portland. Bernie very well may win the primary out there.

    Parent
    I'm glad to hear someone finally admit that. (none / 0) (#123)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 08:20:36 PM EST
    Cashmere: "Of course, Oregon never matters in primaries or anything else[.]"

    University of Washington graduates have been trying to make that very point for decades now.

    ;-D

    Parent

    Haha Donald... (5.00 / 1) (#135)
    by Cashmere on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 09:49:19 PM EST
    :)   I am not an "OREGON" grad, so don't "despise" the Huskies as much as you might predict...  But I do have two sons who are Ducks, so we have a vested interest.   All I can say is GO PAC12!!

    Parent
    I can't recall Chuck Todd (none / 0) (#83)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:41:58 PM EST
    Saying anything supportive of Hillary. He's down in my notebook as a Hillary hater.

    Parent
    Actually, he (5.00 / 1) (#133)
    by NYShooter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 09:02:37 PM EST
    posed a pretty good question tonight, I thought, in a conversation with Mrs. Greenspan:

    He asked if Hillary should shift a little bit in the next bunch of States where she takes on Trump a little more, and Bernie a little less. The thinking is, now that Trump has been nicked for the first time in the campaign, the image of Hillary: poised, knowledgeable, confident vs. a snarling, vulgar knothead representing America.

    Thinking of each sitting behind the desk in the oval office, who would make you feel more confident & proud?

    what do you think?

    Parent

    Between Hillary and Trump (none / 0) (#136)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 10:05:24 PM EST
    Obviously Hillary is by far more Presidential. I shudder if the country elected Trump. Maher had a retired Gen. Michael Hayden on. I couldn't hate that guy enough when he was part of the NSA. But like so many people in positions of authority and responsibility, now that he isn't responsible for the security of the nation he's just about sane. Both Maher and Hayden (who is obviously not a Trump supporter) think that a successful terrorist attack right before the Presidetial election could too easily get us President Trump.

    I think Hillary is also more Presidential than Sanders, but I bear no ill will toward Bernie and think he would make an excellent gruff slightly rumpled well spoken President. I was always a fan of Madeleine Albright though, and she could also be gruff and a little rumpled. Didn't make her any less wise or competent though.

    I'm not ready for this race to be about Clinton vs. Trump. That's premature. I don't even want to feel addressed by a Republican candidate until their convention declares them nominated. Until then Chuck Todd can go wank. He's just looking for any way possible to try to burn HRC.

    Parent

    Even if he'd won NV ... (none / 0) (#74)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:20:33 PM EST
    his chances were slim.

    Parent
    That's just sad (none / 0) (#82)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:40:37 PM EST
    The dark side of the force pulls strongly

    Parent
    Ironic re: African American vote (none / 0) (#75)
    by pitachips on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:22:01 PM EST
    In 2008 Obama's reliance on the AA vote was seen as a weakness BC he couldn't win the "hardworking...white" vote. It's a good thing AA voters are so practical and willing to forgive/forget.

    No African American I spoke to ... (5.00 / 3) (#97)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:09:04 PM EST
    in 2008 had anything against either Clinton. In fact, most of them thought she would be Obama's VP. And if he didn't win, he'd be hers. And they were okay with either outcome.

    So I'm sure most of them see nothing to forget or forgive.

    It was white liberals who had an issue with the Clintons in '08. Some of them still do.

    Parent

    This is what I remember (5.00 / 2) (#106)
    by Valhalla on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:23:34 PM EST
    Have not looked up the numbers, but her favorability numbers were still always high among AAs.

    Parent
    Not sure if either of you are AA (none / 0) (#114)
    by pitachips on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:52:14 PM EST
    There was definitely a big shift, but the goodwill that the Clinton's had built over the years allowed them to get the support back rather quickly (esp once she joined the administration).

    Still interesting to see the situations reversed.

    I can't wait for the primary to end. I think we have a chance to do some serious damage to the GOP this election.

    Parent

    They never ... (5.00 / 2) (#120)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 08:08:30 PM EST
    lost it.

    That were some white liberals who felt that way.

    But mostly it was something ginned up by cable news buffoons.

    Parent

    Or perhaps they realize that remarks (5.00 / 1) (#110)
    by ruffian on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:31:26 PM EST
    can be made into something unintended during the heat of a campaign and there was nothing to forgive at the end of the day.

    Parent
    A 50 point win (none / 0) (#101)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:19:24 PM EST
    Is brutal.

    No joy in Bernieland.

    No, Repug ... (none / 0) (#125)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 08:25:09 PM EST
    has even gotten 50 points period.

    And she gets a near 50 point win.

    Actually looks like it will be closer to 48. But the same thing applies.

    Parent

    MSNBC (none / 0) (#130)
    by jbindc on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 08:45:13 PM EST
    Reportedly started showing a Trump special.

    Parent
    Classic! (none / 0) (#132)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 08:52:30 PM EST


    Parent
    Holy hell Brian Williams, no family is asking (none / 0) (#105)
    by ruffian on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:21:59 PM EST
    about her emails except maybe yours.

    And (none / 0) (#107)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:23:45 PM EST
    The Greenspans

    Parent
    I'd be more interested in reading ... (5.00 / 4) (#126)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 08:26:13 PM EST
    ... the emails of Mrs. Greenspan's husband from 2004-08, when he was telling everyone how solid the U.S. economy was.

    Parent
    Bingo (none / 0) (#127)
    by ruffian on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 08:31:14 PM EST


    Parent
    Or, his communications (none / 0) (#146)
    by KeysDan on Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 03:00:31 PM EST
    in 2000, when he was "concerned" about that $2 trillion surplus from the Clinton Administration budgets that would reduce the debt too much, and too fast.  Hence, he give his support to the infamous Bush tax cuts.

    Parent
    That Pre-Super Tuesday Slot (none / 0) (#108)
    by Trickster on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:24:07 PM EST
    This may well be the 2nd contested Democratic primary season where South Carolina was seen as the big turning point.

    Although, personally . . . I'd say that Nevada was the turning point.  Sanders HAD to win and keep the momentum.  With momentum, it's possible he could've softened the Super Tuesday blow and stayed competitive with a better part of the schedule coming up.

    But either way, now is now and Clinton is going to take the big mid-March primaries in an emphatic way.  There's pretty much no Bernie Road to the nomination.

    I think S.C. was (5.00 / 1) (#134)
    by NYShooter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 09:15:44 PM EST
    a much bigger win for Hillary. In announcing her win in Nevada too many pundits, followed with, "you have to take the win in perspective, she started with a 35% lead in the early polls."

    Parent
    Looks like turnout ... (none / 0) (#109)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:26:29 PM EST
    is about 400,000 which is pretty impressive.

    And Nicole Wallace shows why she is no longer (none / 0) (#111)
    by ruffian on Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:35:19 PM EST
    advising campaigns.

    An astute analysis of reasons for AA vote (none / 0) (#144)
    by Towanda on Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 01:09:56 PM EST
    here.

    Dem Primary South Carolina | 147 comments (147 topical)

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