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WSJ/NBC Poll: Obama Gaining in Swing States

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2012
Posted on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 07:22:13 PM EST
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A new Wall St. Journal/NBC/Marist poll is out today.

President Barack Obama has opened an eight percentage-point lead in Iowa and maintains a five-point edge in Colorado and Wisconsin, according to Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist Poll surveys of the three presidential battlegrounds.

The WSJ says Romney is counting on these states for his electoral college votes, especially since he's been slipping in Ohio and Virginia.

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    WSJ/NBC Poll: Obama Gaining in Swing States | 24 comments (24 topical)

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    Between the painted on tan... (5.00 / 2) (#19)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 09:23:52 PM EST
    and this comment:

    Romney was later asked if he would deport young undocumented immigrants who arrived in the United States as children and he answered, "I'm not going to be rounding people up and deporting them. We're going to put in place a permanent solution."

    during his Univision appearance, I can't imagine that Willard is gaining many latino votes in Colorado.  

    A permanent solution.  Hmmm, now where have I heard that before?  

    Yeesh...the man is incapable of (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by Anne on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 09:43:18 PM EST
    even pretending to be human; every time he opens his mouth, he reveals his utter disdain for the common man.

    Unfortunately, it is in those moments when he sounds most authentic.  

    Just what the country needs: someone who went to the Barbara Bush School of Faking Compassion and Deigning to Acknowledge the Little People.

    Ugh.

    Parent

    His permanent solution? (none / 0) (#22)
    by unitron on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:03:32 AM EST
    Making things so bad here (except for the "elite") that people sneak across the border into Mexico looking for work.

    Parent
    Taking the RCP averages (none / 0) (#1)
    by CoralGables on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 07:34:33 PM EST
    if the election was today Obama wins the electoral college 332-206.

    Yes, but I'm wary (none / 0) (#2)
    by Towanda on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 07:38:18 PM EST
    because I know Iowa and Wisconsin sufficiently well to know that we simply do not approve of changing so much, so fast.  Not about anything!

    I would bet on a bit of a swing in our swing states, though, and sufficiently to "lean" blue.

    Parent

    I just heard on NPR that (none / 0) (#6)
    by shoephone on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 08:00:02 PM EST
    Tammy Baldwin is up by 9 points over Thompson -- an 18% shift from just a few weeks ago (he was up by 9% then). I think if she's on track to win the Senate race, that's a good indication for Obama winning the state. No?

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    Wisconsin is not that simple (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by Towanda on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 08:20:15 PM EST
    to predict and often splits one way for Senate and another way for President.

    Wisconsin is less predictable now than ever before, too, owing to all of the new voter-suppression laws, the illegal Diebold machines -- all aimed at or only in Dem areas, of course -- and more confounding factors from the Walker regime.

    Then again, Stick-It-to-Milwaukee-Tommy T. has been absolutely AWOL for weeks.  It's weird.  If he does get the funding for ads, watch for swings again . . . as I remain wary of confidence that Baldwin can win beyond Dane County, and in one of the last states never to send a candidate of her gender (much less her gender orientation) to Senate, although women have been running for Senate in Wisconsin since the 1920s.

    I would add that, amid writing this, I just got off a phone call from yet another polling outfit that did not do the research to know how to design polling questions that reflect Wisconsin voting laws.  I remain wary . . . if hopeful, for the first time in a long, sad time for the state.

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    The 3 Wisconsin Senate (none / 0) (#8)
    by CoralGables on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 08:11:24 PM EST
    polls in September have Baldwin up by an average of 3.7 points.(I'm ignoring one Baldwin internal poll that has her way up). Tommy Thompson says his campaign is broke but the Chamber of Commerce is coming to his aid and putting up TV spots for him. They have a debate a week from tomorrow but I don't know if anyone but hardcore fans of one or the other really watch a Senate debate.

    Parent
    But, of course, I would add (none / 0) (#11)
    by Towanda on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 08:24:31 PM EST
    that Wisconsin has so few Electoral College votes, compared ot several other swing states, that it probably will not matter in the presidential race.

    Even more so, of course, for even fewer Electoral College votes in a far less populated state, Iowa.

    For this reason, the Virginia poll data are far more significant.

    Parent

    So nice to see... (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by unitron on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 11:59:15 PM EST
    ...someone who knows that data, like media, R plural.

    Parent
    Oops, this is the poll on Colorado (none / 0) (#12)
    by Towanda on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 08:29:20 PM EST
    and not Virginia.

    Colorado, of course, also is less populated and with fewer Electoral College votes than Wisconsin.

    All together, the three states in this poll may matter -- but only all together, unless the race is so close as to be down to almost a tie.  And if so, considering Romney is the opposition, that does not bode well for Obama and Dems in Congress to be able to bolster support for any action for yet four more years.

    I'm watching for updates on polls in sizable swing states in coming weeks.

    Parent

    Thanks Towanda (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by shoephone on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 08:33:54 PM EST
    I knew you'd have a ton of insider information!

    Parent
    If it's any consolation (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by shoephone on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 08:35:00 PM EST
    Thompson sounded absolutely vile and hostile in his interview on NPR today. A real creeep.

    Parent
    Nothing about Tommy T. is consoling (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by Towanda on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 08:48:59 PM EST
    after his decades of contributions to the devastation in the state today. He's just more folksy than Walker, but Tommy already had crippled education and more in Wisconsin, well before Walker. (Of course, the intervening Dem governor Doyle bears a considerable share of responsibility, too, for the destruction of Wisconsin, with his fake furloughs cutting the pay for years for the largest single group of workers in the state and otherwise also screwing up revenue and budgets. He set the stage for the state to believe Walker's fake budgetary crisis.)

    Parent
    Supposedly (none / 0) (#3)
    by MKS on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 07:41:39 PM EST
    some polls call fewer cell phones...and hence show poorer numbers for Obama.

    These polls are some of the good ones.

    Parent

    I saw that (none / 0) (#5)
    by CoralGables on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 07:53:18 PM EST
    polls that use cell phones in addition to land lines bumped Obama up from 2.9 to 4.1 points ahead through Monday.

    Parent
    I think (none / 0) (#4)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 07:42:44 PM EST
    I'll wait to see if other polls tell the same story. I can see however that Romney must carry Co to win. I think that the VA GOP just handed the state to Obama with their crazy junk. Obama had a huge jump with women recently in VA.

    Iowa Democrats (none / 0) (#7)
    by desmoinesdem on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 08:04:26 PM EST
    have a huge early lead in absentee ballot requests. The Obama campaign also has more field offices than the Romney campaign, though both have added offices since I wrote this.

    I am not too worried about Obama winning Iowa, although it's going to be closer than it was in 2008. I am much more concerned about the Iowa House and Senate races.

    If it's any consolation, (none / 0) (#23)
    by NYShooter on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:50:17 AM EST
    (as I wrote in another post) Elizabeth Warren has lead Scott Brown in the last four consecutive polls for the first time ever, in this campaign. Looks like Obama's coattails (coming out of the convention) carry a pretty big swath,

    (Sorry I don't have the names of the polls, just heard it on the TV)

    Parent

    Obama (none / 0) (#9)
    by CoralGables on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 08:18:00 PM EST
    stopped for lunch in Miami today at a place called OMG! Burgers. He sat down and chatted over a cheeseburger and fries with several University of Miami students. The owner has already changed the name of the cheeseburger he ordered to the "Presidential Cheeseburger". No word as to whether the owner gave him a bear hug.

    OMG Burgers is a very cool joint (none / 0) (#16)
    by fishcamp on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 08:47:03 PM EST
    wish I had been there then but I'm sure the alphabet boys would have made me leave because I may have asked a Medicare question that could have been difficult to answer.

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    Watching snippets (none / 0) (#15)
    by Politalkix on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 08:46:11 PM EST
    from the Warren-Brown debate in the Rachel Maddow show. Scott Brown looks like a creep. Brought up the native American heritage of Warren like a jerk...

    Bill Clinton (none / 0) (#18)
    by CoralGables on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 08:57:56 PM EST
    is scheduled to be on the Daily Show with Jon Stewart tonight.

    Jon Stewart tweeted...sorry Colbert we're running long tonight.

    Bill Clinton is simply an amazing person... (none / 0) (#24)
    by magster on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:59:30 AM EST
    I was thinking after the speech that he should somehow be brought back in to the executive branch, but his global initiative seems more worthy.

    Parent
    WSJ/NBC Poll: Obama Gaining in Swing States | 24 comments (24 topical)

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