Colorado, Minn. Republican Caucuses Tonight

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2012
Posted on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 07:07:01 PM EST
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Tonight's the night for Republican caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota. Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum have all been actively campaigning in Colorado.

Mitt brought out 3,000 at a rally last night in Arapahoe County, just south of Denver. The size of Newt's crowd at a rally yesterday afternoon in Jefferson County, just west of Denver: 200.

Republicans are expecting a big turnout. Santorum is expected to do better than Newt. It doesn't seem to matter much, as the votes are non-binding at the Republican Convention. Colorado results will be available here and Minnesota here. [More...]

Update: 8:45 pm: Only the smallest, most rural counties are in, so Santorum being ahead doesn't mean much at this point.

Romney seems to be doing well in the more urban areas. Via Twitter:

#Romney wins big at Aurora Foxridge Middle School with 257 precincts [votes?], Santorum 153, Gingrich 75, Paul 58.
# Grandview HS Caucus results: Romney 283, Santorum 160, Gingrich 80, Paul 28 [Also Aurora]
# At our location, Romney won big, followed by Santorum, then Gingrich, then Paul.
# Columbine High School precincts: MR: 295; RS 193; RP 62; NG 51.

The bigger counties have more precincts and take longer to report. Here's the live return tally by county.

Update: 9:30 pm: Still only 15% of votes (12 of 76 precincts) in and still the rural vote. The tweets from caucus goers are dwindling quick.

Mitt's speaking live now: He congratulates Rick Santorum a few times on his win, but says he'll be the nominee. He says Obama has failed and "we will succeed." So he's wasting little time on his Republican opponents, he sees his opponent as Obama. He keeps repeating: "By President Obama's own definition, he has failed and we will succeed." The race is "more about saving the soul of America than changing the President."

Update 10:00 pm: Still only 21 precincts in, 27% of vote. Santorum took his first big county, Adams. Romney has won Jefferson County. Denver, Boulder, Arapahoe and El Paso not in yet. Romney has won Douglas and Clear Creek Counties while Santorum took Gilpin.

Romney wins the ski areas: Pitkin (Aspen), Eagle (Vail), Routt (Steamboat). Telluride and Breckenridge results not in yet. (Update: Telluride (San Miguel) goes to Santorum.)

Does Santorum winning in Adams mean anything? Only 2,500 showed up at tonight's caucuses, out of a population of 441,603.

Update 10:30 pm: Mitt Romney wins Arapahoe County, that's a big one. He's now tied with Santorum state-wide or slightly ahead. Romney has also won Boulder.

Romney wins Denver. Looks like Santorum will take El Paso (Colorado Springs), but Larimer and Weld are still out.

But consider, for Denver: 3,000 Republicans showed up to caucus, out of 600,000 residents.

Romney's now ahead of Santorum: 51% reporting (39 precincts )

Mitt Romney 36.8% (7,424)

Rick Santorum 35.4% (7,156)

10:46 pm: Tied again, 36.2% each. 10: 53 pm: Santorum is up by 75 votes.

11:00 pm: Santorum now leading by 500 votes. Looks like Santorum won Larimer, which leaves Weld. The AP and Colorado Republican Party are calling it for Santorum.

Santorum 26,354 40.24%
Romney 22,855; 34.90%
Perry 52; 0.08%
Paul 7,708; 11.77%
Others 57; 0.09%
Huntsman 46; 0.07%
Gingrich 8,390; 12.81%
Bachman 27; 0.04%
Total 65,489; 100%

Turnout: 65,489 voters. Democratic caucus turnout in 2008 in Colorado: 120,411

This is the end of my updates because Justified is starting and I'd much rather watch that. In a nutshell: I doubt the Republicans will take Colorado in November with caucus goers this fractured.

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Colorado, Minn. Republican Caucuses Tonight | 52 comments (52 topical)

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A good night (5.00 / 1) (#2)
by CoralGables on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 07:27:35 PM EST

to see how PPP is as a polling outfit as no one else has polled Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado.

According to them it should look a little like this by the end of the night:

Colorado - Romney by 10
Minnesota - Santorum by 10
Missouri - Santorum by 12

Looking back at 2008 (5.00 / 1) (#10)
by CoralGables on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 09:04:50 PM EST

Colorado:
Romney - 60%
McCain - 18%
Huckabee-12%

Missouri
McCain - 33%
Huckabee-31%
Romney - 29%

Minnesota
Romney - 41%
McCain - 22%
Huckabee-20%


An interesting (none / 0) (#3)
by CoralGables on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 07:45:21 PM EST

thing to keep an eye on tonight ...

Will Romney finish third in Minnesota?


so long as he finishes ahead of Gingrich (none / 0) (#4)
by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 08:25:19 PM EST

does it matter? Neither Santorum or Ron Paul have a chance nationally.


: Since (5.00 / 1) (#12)
by CoralGables on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 09:09:45 PM EST

Romney won Minnesota 4 years ago, yes I think a third place finish would be a bit of a slap down.

Interesting point #2 (none / 0) (#6)
by CoralGables on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 08:36:10 PM EST

Based on early results, can Santorum win all three?


Missouri (none / 0) (#8)
by CoralGables on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 08:55:41 PM EST

already called for Santorum. PPP looks to have possibly underestimated the margin here by a lot. With half of the vote counted Santorum is up 54-25


Crazy is as crazy does, I guess (5.00 / 2) (#19)
by andgarden on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 10:16:57 PM EST

Ever since I blew my RACE OVER call after NH, I've just been along for the ride. God knows what's going on with these people.

: Romney's problem (5.00 / 1) (#23)
by gyrfalcon on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 12:02:52 AM EST

is he doesn't excite anybody (except maybe John Sununu, who I'm sure thinks he'll get a cabinet job if Romney wins) much. Even if they're for him rather than the others, it's still pretty ho-hum, so they don't bother. They also figure he's going to win no matter what, as the Conventional Wisdom of the Wise Ones in Da Media have been telling them for months.
The anti-Romneys, who are pretty touchy and excitable people, come out in droves in hopes of at least giving him a black eye and sending him a message if he does win that he'd better toe their line better.
They'll vote for him in the general if he wins, though, because Obama is the anti-Chris, doncha know.

This thread has been cleaned (5.00 / 1) (#61)
by Jeralyn on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 09:40:50 PM EST

of off-topic comments. The thread is about the Republican caucuses last night. Jim is warned not to hijack threads.

I can imagine (none / 0) (#1)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 07:13:55 PM EST

that Santorum would do better than Gingrich considering that FOTF is pushing for Santorum.

what do you attribute the higher (possible) (none / 0) (#5)
by Lil on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 08:35:14 PM EST

turn out in Co. to? BTW, pictures of Romney lately shows him looking more tired, imo. And he has a long way to go yet.

Colorado GOP (none / 0) (#7)
by CoralGables on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 08:38:47 PM EST

is predicting a turnout to top the 70,000 of four years ago. It should be noted that the Nevada GOP predicted a turnout of 70,000 and managed to get less than half of that.


: oh, so that's the GOP's estimate? (none / 0) (#11)
by Lil on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 09:09:42 PM EST

From J's link... (none / 0) (#9)
by MileHi Hawkeye on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 09:00:13 PM EST

More than 45,000 Republicans pre-registered to participate in tonight's caucuses and another 22,000 went online to find their caucus location, said Chuck Poplstein, executive director of the Colorado Republican Committee. About 3,000 people have signed up to volunteer.

Probably wishful thinking on their part given the weather and this:

Many people attending the nonbinding voting event were remarking about the smaller crowds this time around.
MaryJane Orlando at a Jefferson County caucus at Green Mountain Elementary said she is no stranger to the events.
She has been attending them for years, but she is a little unnerved by the lessened amount of people tonight in Jeffco.
"Four years ago our precinct had its own room there were so many people. This year we have two tables, so I am not sure how much I like that," Orlando said.

M. Orlando might not like it (none / 0) (#29)
by christinep on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 01:18:08 AM EST

...but, the low turnout (noticeably less than four years ago) is music to my Democratic ears. Enthusiasm Gap continues to visit the Repubs.


: To that end... (none / 0) (#60)
by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 11:48:15 AM EST

Democrats currently are more excited about voting this fall than Republicans are, a sign that doesn't bode well for the GOP effort to reclaim the White House, according to a poll Wednesday.
Almost 6 in 10 Democrats, 58 percent, said they are "very excited" to vote later this year, compared to 54 percent of Republicans that said the same, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted for Daily Kos and SEIU.

Are the repub. voter pushing (none / 0) (#13)
by loveed on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 09:53:54 PM EST

to block Romney nomination? Maybe no one will have enough delegates.
The leadership must be pulling out there hair. No matter how hard they try, the voters will not fall in line.
Romney is losing big. In Florida 4out of 10 voter for Romney wanted to vote for someone else. Voter turnout in Florida was down. Now Romney is being routed in the mid-west by Santorum and Ron Paul. This is a vote against Romney. He is losing ground from 2008.
This is not good news for Obama. He won't be running against Romney. No one knows how this will turnout.
The media don't have a clue. Also in the end it won't be Santorum.

: Don (none / 0) (#55)
by AngryBlackGuy on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 11:02:16 AM EST

is right.

Romney is getting destroyed out there. These (none / 0) (#14)
by tigercourse on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 09:59:02 PM EST

Primary voters are a bunch of fools.

not so fast (none / 0) (#15)
by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 10:00:35 PM EST

Only the most rural, small counties are in yet in Colorado.


True, but he has done terribly in N.W.A. (none / 0) (#17)
by tigercourse on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 10:12:08 PM EST

: I have no idea why I wrote that. I meant MN. (none / 0) (#18)
by tigercourse on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 10:14:12 PM EST

No their very smart (none / 0) (#16)
by loveed on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 10:07:41 PM EST

Romney can't beat Obama. None of these guys can. There's still time for someone else.


How So (none / 0) (#34)
by Socraticsilence on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 02:00:38 AM EST

Seriously, I'm curious how someone could jump in at this point and legitimately beat Obama- did Reagan rise from the grave with a thirst for Brain.....er Tax Cuts and I missed it or what? Actually beyond the how give me a who-- Jeb "Third Times a Charm" Bush? Paul "I'm actually laughing while typing this" Ryan? Scott "bout to lose his Job" Walker? Chris "Giuliani- 9/11 + two bills" Christie? Seriously, who exactly could both unify the GOP and pose a credible threat to Obama (and don't say Mitch Daniels- he sounds good, right up until the Bush Budget Director line in his resume)?


There (none / 0) (#41)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 06:11:56 AM EST

is going to be no one else. It is too late.


: I agree (none / 0) (#42)
by Militarytracy on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 06:15:49 AM EST

It is done. If the bigwigs decide they must have someone else they will have to have a brokered convention.

Um why does voting against Romney (none / 0) (#33)
by Socraticsilence on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 01:54:35 AM EST

make them fools- I get that he's supposedly the most electable (though his complete and total lack of political acumen frankly makes that shaky premise- he's lost every single election he's run in but one, and that one was not nearly impressive as it first sounds much less proof of "crossover appeal" Mitt was just another in the two decade run of GOP governors that the Bay state elected post-Dukakis) but other than that what exactly is appealing about his candidacy? To me he (or rather the unenthused GOP base) essentially going to try and run "anyone but the President" campaign instead of anything substantive- and frankly when in recent history has that worked? It failed in 2004, 1996, and 1984- seriously, please point out what Romney has of substance to run on:

Foriegn Policy: "Obama apologized for America, we should go against the wishes of both NATO and the Afghan government and stay in Afghanistan indefinitely, etc."- that's a freaking joke this is the first time in recent memory that any and all attempts to paint the Democratic Party as soft will be laughable not just sadly misinformed, but by all means go with the Obama "apologizes to our enemies" trope I mean its not like Obama can counter with the end of the Iraq war and the death of Bin Laden.

Economics: At first seems like a strong suit but then again Newt Gingrich essentially destroyed Mitt on this issue and that was appealing to people who view Ayn Rand as a profit not a kook- seriously, can you imagine the guy who essentially epitomizes what went wrong with our Economy trying to lecture Obama on the areas where he is legitimately vulnerable (closeness to Wall Street, etc.) Note two things could change this entirely -- Europe crashing (though if spun right that could be a net plus for Obama- point out that unlike the US which opted for stimulus spending and appears to be in a recovery albeit a slow one, Europe embraced austerity and crashed as a result of it) and the job numbers continuing to climb (if this happens Obama may end up Mondaling Romney)

Social Issues: Yeah maybe a decade ago- now the GOP is essentially dead in the water due to the whole "hate gays,blacks, the Chinese? and women" stance

Immigration: Awesome Mitt can do for the Latino vote what Goldwater did for the African-American vote- polarize the small segment that votes GOP due to social conservatism but wont accept the transparent racism of the current GOP platform (seriously, this is basically the one area where Karl Rove was actually smart or at least smart enough to grasp basic demographic trends-- thank god the GOP called Bush and apostate for attempting even modest immigration reform).

Entitlements: As with Economics, Obama could be vulnerable here (from the left) unfortunately for the GOP, Mitt continues to write mash notes to Paul "Granny Killer" Ryan.

And this is only the macro-;eve; issues, on a state-by-state basis Obama is blessed with the results of electing Tea Party morons in multiple swing states/


they are voting for the people they (none / 0) (#47)
by TeresaInPa on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 08:54:52 AM EST

want to vote for, for the reasons they want to vote for them. That doesn't make them fools.


I'm hoping for a sweep (none / 0) (#20)
by loveed on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 10:36:31 PM EST

Because this makes the leadership and the media look bad.

: Good point. (none / 0) (#21)
by oculus on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 10:48:23 PM EST

Seems likely at least (none / 0) (#22)
by lilburro on Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 11:18:01 PM EST

that if Romney is the nominee, he's going to have to choose a really far right VP. Which will have shades of 2008, no matter if the VP choice is male or female.

: And they're all hoping for that (none / 0) (#24)
by gyrfalcon on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 12:05:44 AM EST

except for Gingrich and Paul, which is why the criticism of him from pols on the right has been so muted.
I saw Bachmann do a lengthy interview on Greta Van Susteren's show on Fox tonight, and Greta could not get a single bad word out of her about Romney or anybody else. Bachmann clearly thinks she's in the running as a VP candidate-- Palin redux, as it were.
I don't think Romney's that dumb.

"The Romney bandwagon just went" (none / 0) (#25)
by gyrfalcon on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 12:10:09 AM EST

"in a ditch"-- David Gergen on CNN just now. Heh.

Santorum Sweep! (none / 0) (#26)
by caseyOR on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 12:24:19 AM EST

Rick Santorum wins Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado. Tim Pawlenty must be on massive doses of mood elevating drugs at this point. If only he'd stayed the course. :-)

I know that Missouri's results are non-binding, so Romney may well get the delegates. How about the other two states? Does Santorum get all those delegates?

I think all three are non-binding (none / 0) (#27)
by gyrfalcon on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 12:28:26 AM EST

The horrifying thing I just heard on CNN is that Santorum polls high on "likability." AIEEEEE!


'Cause there hasn't 't been reason (5.00 / 1) (#30)
by christinep on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 01:25:40 AM EST

To critique Santorum muchbuntil now. Easy prediction: Like the others up-top his negatives will grow.


: Yup (5.00 / 1) (#44)
by Militarytracy on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 07:36:18 AM EST

Out comes the magnifying glass again for inspection of the new specimen. Which is really just an old specimen that short term Republican memory dumped the last time the Gingrich made them clap and cheer like a Roman mob :) The Republican base has got to have the shortest group attention span of any social group in America.

I'm not (none / 0) (#43)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 06:23:08 AM EST

surprised to hear that. He really does come off well on TV.


I think Santorum (none / 0) (#51)
by Madeline on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 10:40:37 AM EST

is the most likable of all. He did something that none of them have done. He Appeared on several television talk shows, some with the entire family and when he does, he is a chatterbox, talks about this grandparents, self.....sort of an open book. He has a story for these difficult times, just a SW PA coal mining town kid who rose from the coal dust to become Senator, run for President.Then his daughter was in the hospital and there were several stories about that plus loving family pictures. How many votes you think that got?
Look for him to take PA too.

His platform? Opposite of everything democratic. Terrible.
Back to the '50's. Maybe those who voted for him just want a way to escape from the present.


Each to his/her own, I guess (5.00 / 1) (#52)
by gyrfalcon on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 10:59:06 AM EST

To me, he's the most personally repellent character in a race full of personally repellent people. "Likable" is the very last word I would apply to such a petulant, sanctimonious jerk.


: Yes to each his own. (none / 0) (#62)
by Madeline on Thu Feb 09, 2012 at 03:01:13 AM EST

I said he was likable. I happen to know him and I think he's somewhat likable. I don't think of him as repellant. Sometime you know someone on the opposite side and you just let them be who they are even if you disagree with them on just about everythng.

CNN says Colorado has delegates (none / 0) (#28)
by andgarden on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 12:48:19 AM EST

link. Likewise MN.

Shrug.


tonight's caucus votes (5.00 / 1) (#37)
by Jeralyn on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 02:35:16 AM EST

don't determine delegates. There's no assurance that the caucus vote preferences will match the ultimate delegate votes. National delegates aren't chosen until March.

There is no formal system applied in the Precinct Caucus to relate the presidential preference of the participants to the choice of the precinct's delegates to the Colorado County Assemblies and District Conventions; however, a non-binding Presidential Preference poll of the delegates will be conducted. (NOTE: It is the District Conventions and the State Convention that will actually pledge Republican National Convention delegates to presidential contenders).
Delegates selected at the Precinct Caucuses may (but are not required to) declare their Presidential Preference.

The District Conventions will be held between March and April 13.

Distict Caucuses choose the 21 National Convention Delegates (3 in each of Colorado's 7 Congression Districts) along with the district's delegates to the Colorado State Republican Convention.
There is no formal system applied in the District Caucus to relate the presidential preference of the District Caucus delegates to the choice of the election district's delegates to the National or State Republican Convention. The delegates in attendance at each District Caucus alone determine if presidential preference is to be a factor and, if so, how it is to be applied.

: Sounds the same as (none / 0) (#53)
by gyrfalcon on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 11:00:17 AM EST

what Bachmann described for Minnesota's process.

Oh, they have delegates (none / 0) (#31)
by gyrfalcon on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 01:34:01 AM EST

but the results of the primaries aren't very directly related to who ends up with the delegates.

I had the great pleasure (ahem) of listening to Bachmann describe the process to an increasingly incredulous Van Susteren this evening, and trust me, the delegate allocation in Minnesota has no direct ties to the vote this evening.


So if Newt or Rick (none / 0) (#35)
by Socraticsilence on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 02:03:57 AM EST

were to sweep the slave states excluding Texas and Florida- um, what happens? I mean seriously, Mitt's not going to play well in Bibleland.

Santorum up again? (none / 0) (#38)
by Militarytracy on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 04:07:11 AM EST

They'll try on anyone but Mitt Romney several times. Having Santorum as the candidate would be great for Obama though and all the rest of us. No infighting leading up to the election :) I can't imagine that big party players will allow Santorum, who can't beat Obama, will allow this to stand. Brokered convention?

My money's on Jeb. (none / 0) (#39)
by oculus on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 04:24:56 AM EST

: I can't tell (none / 0) (#40)
by Militarytracy on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 05:46:43 AM EST

His brother blew up the world and left the stage less than four years ago. I know he wants to be President. I believe that story about elder Bush crying about what Dubya had done and that he had destroyed Jeb's possibilities. Do you think they will think this is the time to reinvent the Bush brand? Maybe
It will be tougher for Obama because Jeb is more palatable than any of the idiots that have a current shot. There will be lots of fighting too....bleh. The Bush apologists will come out of the woodwork. Can't wait to see Jim and I fighting about all that.

The big party players (none / 0) (#54)
by gyrfalcon on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 11:01:04 AM EST

are no longer in control.


: Is this the end product (5.00 / 1) (#63)
by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 09, 2012 at 08:02:18 AM EST

of graduating from the Carl Rove school of wedging? The Republican voting base is completely out of their minds. Nixon, one of the most despised Republican Presidents, even he at least gave us the EPA so that our children could grow up without being poisoned. Democrats have had to deal with "New" Democrats, and I guess these are the "New" Republicans. The New Republicans pound the podium that it's time to burn the world down, because Jesus will be here soon so it doesn't matter.