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Saturday Evening Open Thread

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Blog Related
Posted on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:51:15 PM EST
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I'm a wreck. My Gators and my Yanks play tonight and it's tough sledding for both.

Open Thread.

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    Saturday Evening Open Thread | 45 comments (45 topical)

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    Walking Dead! Walking Dead! (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by kmblue on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 06:34:40 AM EST
    Sunday at 9 pm.  I watched the very first episode because it was set in Atlanta and got to see streets I know with zombies on the teevee.  Me and my friends have been obsessed ever since.

    It was the only cool thing (5.00 / 0) (#21)
    by Militarytracy on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 07:31:02 AM EST
    About Josh having halo traction there, visiting the Walking Dead streets.

    Parent
    This next episode about (none / 0) (#35)
    by MKS on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 05:23:50 PM EST
    taking up residence in a prison sounds very interesting.

     

    Parent

    Brad Pitt (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by Jackson Hunter on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 09:23:56 AM EST
    on the failure of the drug war. He produced a documentary about it:

    http://movies.msn.com/movies/article.aspx?news=767013

    Of course some of the comments are battering him.

    Jackson

    Lively book review discussion (2.00 / 1) (#29)
    by brodie on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 10:51:14 AM EST
    today at DK re the recent book Better Off Without 'Em, by Chuck Thompson, an amusing yet serious argument for letting the South split off and permitting the rest of us to form a far more perfect Union from what's left.

    One nifty side effect, which I dont recall the author mentioning, would be the greater likelihood of ridding ourselves finally of the Electoral College as well as implementing strict national laws and regs on our voting processes for federal office, including harsh penalties for those trying to suppress or manipulate the vote.

    We could finally begin cutting more deeply into the Pentagon budget too, although we might need to find ways to replace  all the good ol boy southerners who now largely fill the ranks of our armed forces.

    Anyway, I'm all for the split.  The South will never change enough or quickly enough and it's backward, reactionary ways will always be a political drag on the rest of the country.  

    Where would the dividing line fall? (none / 0) (#33)
    by caseyOR on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 04:50:33 PM EST
    Would it be the old Mason-Dixon Line? Would the southwest states be southern or northern? What about the border states?

    Parent
    Georgia is only for Romney (none / 0) (#36)
    by MKS on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 05:30:09 PM EST
    by about 8 points.

    Texas will turn in a decade or so.

    Parent

    The author would take most (none / 0) (#38)
    by brodie on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 05:47:21 PM EST
    of the Old Confederacy, except TX, and throw in WV and Kintuck.

    TX is too much economic power to lose, especially if we're gonna let FL go.  He also notes that TX produces the best cheerleaders.  It's also not precisely as "southern" as regular Southern states, being western and also once being a Lone Star Republic.

    Parent

    You know (none / 0) (#1)
    by NYShooter on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:57:24 PM EST
    that Detroit, the city, is going through tough times.....

    YANKS in town for the PLAYOFFS, and still thousands of tickets available.

    Poor, poor Yankees. (none / 0) (#2)
    by oculus on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 07:14:31 PM EST


    Parent
    Poor, poor Derek Jeter! (none / 0) (#18)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 02:21:38 AM EST
    The Spouse called it on the infield play in the 12th inning, when Jeter fell. She first noticed he was hurt badly, while the rest of us were incredulous. Then, when they were carrying him from the field, she said matter of factly, "Look at the way his left ankle is dangling. It's broken."

    The Yankees just announced that Jeter's left ankle is indeed fractured, and he's done for the year.

    Best wishes for Jeter's full recovery.

    Parent

    The Tigers are playing in NY... (none / 0) (#10)
    by Anne on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 09:36:15 PM EST
    Those empty seats you see are in Yankee Stadium.

    But maybe you are talking about games 3-5, which will be played in Detroit.

    Parent

    No tickets available in NY (none / 0) (#13)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 10:53:52 PM EST


    Parent
    Yeah, I screwed up (none / 0) (#14)
    by NYShooter on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 10:59:14 PM EST
    My brain forgot opener in NY

    Parent
    As we say in Philadelphia ... (none / 0) (#12)
    by Peter G on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 10:39:25 PM EST
    RA - UUUUUUUL!

    Parent
    As we say in Baltimore... (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Anne on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 11:06:00 PM EST
    bleah.

    Parent
    I'm (none / 0) (#3)
    by lentinel on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 08:39:11 PM EST
    trying to listen to the game on ESPN radio.

    There are two guys talking incessantly about just about everything but what is happening on the field.

    They're talking about other teams, other games, how tall somebody is and how much they weigh.

    It's really hard to visualize what is happening and to experience the drama.

    I miss Phil Rizzuto.

    Rizutto was one of a kind. (none / 0) (#7)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 08:48:31 PM EST
    I'll miss Vin Scully when he finally hangs it up in the next few years. Announcers like Scully, Rizutto and Ernie Hartwell were always full of great stories, yet maintained their professionalism and never let the storytelling interfere with their calling of the play-by-play. The guys on ESPN just babble incessantly.

    Parent
    Phil Rizzuto was an old friend (5.00 / 2) (#20)
    by fishcamp on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 07:30:24 AM EST
    because I dated one of his daughters for over 40 years both in Aspen and down here.  She passed away two years after he did.  Everyplace he went people wanted to talk with him and get autographs.  He had some amazing stories.

    Parent
    Same re Jerry Coleman. (none / 0) (#9)
    by oculus on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 09:20:41 PM EST


    Parent
    third-generation Tigers fan (none / 0) (#4)
    by desmoinesdem on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 08:40:56 PM EST
    Yankees fans are so greedy.

    OMG! Your Gators are ... (none / 0) (#5)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 08:41:18 PM EST
    ... actually playing out of their own time zone, in Nashville! Prissy, get me my smelling salts -- I feel faint! How will they ever cope with the jet lag?

    They barely managed! (none / 0) (#8)
    by Amiss on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 08:49:41 PM EST
    Finally allowed someone to score in the 4th quarter this year. So sad.

    Parent
    presidential polls (none / 0) (#6)
    by desmoinesdem on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 08:46:31 PM EST
    Romney's ahead by a little in a bunch of national polls, while Obama's still up by a little (or not trailing by much) in a bunch of swing state polls. Arizona even seems to be tightening.

    In 2004, it seemed like the state-level polling lagged a bit behind the national polling. If that's true, Romney might still overtake Obama in places like Ohio, the way he seems to have done in Florida.

    But if Romney's leads in national polls are based on crushing Obama by 30 instead of 15-20 in red states, and/or losing to Obama by 10-15 instead of by 20 in blue states, Romney could still be screwed in the electoral college.

    Strange situation.

    Have you noticed if the right-wing media (none / 0) (#11)
    by DFLer on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 09:43:50 PM EST
    fox and friends, have been railing against these poll results as rigged, etc?

    Parent
    At TPM, there is a comment (5.00 / 3) (#15)
    by MKS on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 11:01:01 PM EST
    that when the polls are against the Republican, they want to kill the pollster; when the polls are against the Democrat, they want to kill each other.

    Ciruclar firing squad that just demoralizes the base when this a base election.

    Parent

    On (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by lentinel on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 08:20:57 AM EST
    Huffpo, although the polls are close, their electoral map shows Obama well in front.

    It is weird to see the electoral map - It looks like a sea of red surrounded by a few spots of blue.

    Yet the total is 271 Obama vs 206 Romney.

    Not even close.


    Parent

    Sea of Red... or (none / 0) (#23)
    by Mr Natural on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 08:39:25 AM EST
    ... Sea of Stupid?

    Parent
    Chris Hayes discussed polling this A.M (none / 0) (#24)
    by Militarytracy on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 08:57:45 AM EST
    Had a guy on who recently wrote a book on how much the questions asked and how they are asked influence the answers by those who aren't partisans.  And there isn't often options for not having an opinion or not caring, so intensity of interest or knowledge isn't scored.

    Parent
    The real story of the Obama-Romney debate (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by sallywally on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 12:36:44 PM EST
    was and is that everything Romney said was a lie or a flip-flop, and no one picked that up or obsessed on it. Another major failure of the network media.

    That story should have been all over the place - especially out of Democratic mouths.

    IMHO, we did ourselves a huge disservice by dwelling on Obama's passive performance (even though it WAS maddening)instead of Romney's lies. He was altering his views because he knows the public will not vote for him if he's honest.

    It kills me that the media just pass this by.

    Martha Raddatz on ABC This Week saying Biden was too "big" for the format and "SO aggressive!"

    Jeez.

    Parent

    271-206 (none / 0) (#26)
    by CoralGables on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 10:08:02 AM EST
    is a lot tighter than you suggest. If the non-listed tossup electoral votes there go to Romney you now have 271-267. From that standpoint all it takes is any one state to switch over the last 23 days and you have a Romney/Ryan White House.

    The best case scenario is of course that Obama takes those electoral tossups, and then as you say it's not close.

    Parent

    RCP is closer to that scenario (none / 0) (#31)
    by Towanda on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 03:11:06 PM EST
    that you describe.  It's weird to work with the interactive map and see how it could come down to New Hampshire's 4 votes, Iowa's 6 votes, etc.

    I'm also reading, for the first time in months, that "the path may be through Wisconsin," with its 10 votes.  To think that Obama had a lead of 7 to 11 points, dependent upon the poll, and that it's now barely 2 points -- so possibly a tie, as that's well within the margin of error -- and that it could return to its status as the closest state, after his huge margin in 2008, is stunning.  But the state's job situation is horrible owing to Gov. Perp Walker, and Obama could take the hit for it.

    Btw, 'twas also said some weeks ago that Romney was pulling back on his ads there.  Not so.

    Parent

    Fwiw, CNN (I know) (none / 0) (#27)
    by brodie on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 10:29:20 AM EST
    has Romney up in the EC, 260 something v Obama in the 230s.

    A little more credible source, Nate Silver, has O's likelihood of winning on a given day down to the high 50%s, compared to the 80s pre first debate.

    Sober minded observers like Obama backer historian David Kaiser believe O needs to actually win this next debate to avoid Nov defeet.

    It's nervous time for Dems, even allowing for CNN's pro-GOP poll bias.  What looked like an easy D win two weeks ago is now within range for the Repubs to steal -- or win outright if O turns in another limp debate performance.

    Parent

    Nate (5.00 / 0) (#28)
    by CoralGables on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 10:47:30 AM EST
    actually bumped the President's chances back up to 60% if held today and 62.9% for election day.

    He has recently mentioned two details in his data tracking formula that may need to be altered next election cycle. One of those dealing with post-debate polling which would give a little added chance to Romney right now. The other is bilingual polling carrying additional weight in some states which would give a small polling boost to Obama in places like Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and Florida.

    If those two are a wash, the current 538 Nov 6 forecast is 285-253.

    Parent

    The Town Hall format (none / 0) (#40)
    by christinep on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 05:55:33 PM EST
    Other than having a moment where one of the candidates looks at his watch or something similar, any suggestions for how to "score" Town Hall Q & A venues?

    Parent
    Respond first to the questioner (5.00 / 2) (#42)
    by MKS on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 07:06:45 PM EST
    and then pivot, literally, and address Romney with a direct point or attack or defense.....

    Look at Romney without facial expression while he is talking.

    If you find the chance, interrupt Romney with a quick one or two word disagreement--Romney will flip his lid--that is when he made all his mistakes in the Primary debates....It throws him off his script and shows him for the jerk he is.

    Parent

    MKS, can you (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by Zorba on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 07:49:40 PM EST
    give this advice to Obama directly?  I wish.  It all sounds good to me.  

    Parent
    It is basic stuff (none / 0) (#44)
    by MKS on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 08:16:49 PM EST
    I hope our guys don't think it is too small- minded or gimmicky....This stuff works....

    One would think any debate coach or even litigator could tell them this.

     

    Parent

    Remember Bill at the TH (none / 0) (#41)
    by brodie on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 06:24:43 PM EST
    In 1992?  Just be ready to take advantage of any openings your opponent gives.

    And with Romney that shouldn't be too hard since just about every time he opens his mouth he contradicts a past stated position. Major scoring opps right there.  

    But Obama has to have done his homework.  Like on SS...

    Parent

    I await the day (none / 0) (#32)
    by shoephone on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 04:42:28 PM EST
    the electoral college is done away with. It's outmoded, not useful, and not representative.

    Parent
    I agree with you (none / 0) (#34)
    by CoralGables on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 05:05:05 PM EST
    as it would be more fair to each individual voter.

    It's unlikely to happen in our lifetime. It would probably take several more candidates winning the presidency without winning the popular vote before it's considered, and probably would need to happen a couple times (by both parties) in a row to stir enough emotion to change it.

    Parent

    Amending the constitution (none / 0) (#37)
    by shoephone on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 05:39:41 PM EST
    is a monumental step. Plus, we'd have to get 3/4 of all the states to ratify, and states like NH and Iowa aren't going to want to give up their importance in the current system.

    But with GOP shenanigans over "voter fraud" and  electronic ballots, and the insane amounts of money spent in small states with early primaries and caucuses, I can see more citizens getting riled up over the process. I'm 53. Maybe it will change when I'm 83.

    Parent

    Better chance for the non- (none / 0) (#39)
    by brodie on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 05:52:48 PM EST
    amendment Interstate Compact route to be enacted than for the Con to be amended on the EC.  Reformers just need more organization, funding and pub in enough states.  Then get the Dems to start working harder as a party to get majorities in the state leges.

    Parent
    While you're at it (none / 0) (#45)
    by NYShooter on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 10:32:49 PM EST
    do away with the two Senators from each state also.

    Kinda Nuts, dontcha think?

    California: 37,000,000

    Wyoming:     500,000

    Parent

    FINAL: Texas A&M 59, Louisiana Tech 57. (none / 0) (#17)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 02:06:15 AM EST
    If you didn't catch this late game on ESPNU, or you turned it off at the end of the first quarter (when Louisiana Tech trailed 21-0) or at halftime (when the Bulldogs trailed 39-16), then you missed an epic Bayou barnburner of a second half.

    Even in defeat, congratulations to LaTech for never giving up. That 44-point 2nd half blitz came agonizingly close -- a failed two-point conversion attempt with 0:39 to go in the game -- to catching the A&M Aggies at the wire.

    Saturday Evening Open Thread | 45 comments (45 topical)

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