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But Other Than That, How Did You Like The Play?

Kevin Drum writes:

Contrary to his reputation, Bush mostly succeeded by pressing a moderate, and sometimes even liberal, agenda. Tax cuts aside, which he passed solely with Republican support, the only real ruthlessness he showed toward Democrats on behalf of a conservative priority was the campaign hardball he played to add a union-busting provision to the Homeland Security bill.

Other than 4 trillion dollars in tax cuts, oh and the Iraq Debacle (FTR, Drum seems to forget the Iraq war funding issues after the Dems retook the Congress, among other things.), Bush enacted a moderate, liberal agenda. Think what an amazing statement that is.

It just goes to prove my central axiom about wonky pundits, they always always underestimate the importance of tax policy. Drum also delivers the usual spiel about how limited Presidential power is. It has always been a silly argument which I have addressed in the past and am no longer interested in even giving the argument a hearing. It is just plain silly.

Speaking for me only

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  • Display: Sort:
    People who pretend that (5.00 / 4) (#1)
    by andgarden on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 01:24:41 PM EST
    appointments to the Supreme Court are unrelated to a "policy agenda" are not worthy of being listened to.

    NO Shit!! (5.00 / 3) (#3)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 01:34:44 PM EST
    Language (none / 0) (#4)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 01:35:46 PM EST
    Sorry (none / 0) (#6)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 01:37:48 PM EST
    I did find it amazing when someone else (5.00 / 3) (#2)
    by ruffian on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 01:28:01 PM EST
    quoted it earlier. Stunning in fact. Let's not forget the fired US Attorneys, politicization of every federal office, the Patriot act, and on and on.

    And have you met Justice Alito?

    Hmmm.... (none / 0) (#17)
    by Dan the Man on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 02:41:58 PM EST

    the fired US Attorneys

    This is an indication Bush wanted loyalists, not that he's not a liberal.  Was Roosevelt not a liberal because he wanted to pack the Supreme Court with loyalists?


    politicization of every federal office

    I'm not sure what this is referring to, but elections do have consequences.  If a member of executive branch isn't going to follow the policy of the leader of the executive policy, then maybe he should find a different job.


    the Patriot act

    Isn't Obama a liberal?  Doesn't Obama support the Patriot Act?


    Justice Alito

    Bush's first choice was Harriet Miers and it was only after strong pressure from conservatives that she was dropped.

    Perhaps the conclusion to draw from all your examples is that Bush was no less liberal than Obama.

    Parent

    I am saying that all of these were (none / 0) (#18)
    by ruffian on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 02:53:55 PM EST
    choices to promote conservative policy. Do you think Bush loyalists supported liberal policy? Does not sound very loyal to me.

    I'm not making any statement about Obama at all. but to say that Bush did anything to promote a liberal agenda is just ridiculous.

    Parent

    Anything? Nothing? (none / 0) (#19)
    by BTAL on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 03:02:39 PM EST
    Just one example to disprove your "absolute".

    Bush Triples Funding for AIDS, Malaria and Tuberculosis

    Parent

    funding the ABC (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by observed on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 03:11:04 PM EST
    approach to fighting AIDS counts as a minus.


    Parent
    You need to review the glowing Dem (none / 0) (#22)
    by BTAL on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 03:18:31 PM EST
    reports from the time that bill was signed.

    Parent
    You need to know (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by observed on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 03:33:40 PM EST
    that the abstinence based approach does not work.


    Parent
    Where did I say anything related to that topic? (none / 0) (#30)
    by BTAL on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 03:56:30 PM EST
    Find where I did and you just MIGHT have a point to make regarding my comment above.

    Parent
    my mistake. (none / 0) (#36)
    by observed on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 04:44:08 PM EST
    I thought you would know that the Bush administration promoted the useless ABC method in Africa.


    Parent
    Yeah, my mom researched stigma and AIDS in SA (none / 0) (#44)
    by masslib on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 07:53:43 PM EST
    As one african girl put it to her... "ABCD", all but certain death.

    Parent
    Even I never thought so little of conservatives (none / 0) (#23)
    by ruffian on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 03:21:10 PM EST
    to think they did not care about world health, but if you want to count that as a liberal agenda, I'll let you. You have proved me wrong on the absolutes.

    Drum is still wrong.

    Parent

    Wow! (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 01:37:32 PM EST
    Rumsfeld's book was great too.  Short on reality but an easy read, delightful hot summer day lightweight reading.

    But BTD, the Obama administration is (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by observed on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 01:40:31 PM EST
    planning to hit jobs hard, with more tax cuts.
    The play is great, man.... For Obama is a reasonable man, as Antony might say.
    A slavish devotion to the idea of "reasonable" compromise is its own kind of fanaticism.


    I know this is OT, but I had my (none / 0) (#8)
    by observed on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 01:41:54 PM EST
    interview at noon, EST.
    I can give contact info for people on the committee, if anyone here knows how to be especially "persuasive".

    Seriously, the interview did not go badly, but I can't tell whether it went well. They were holding things close to the vest.


    Parent

    Interviews are like that (none / 0) (#76)
    by sj on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 02:41:31 AM EST
    Good luck!

    Parent
    Moderate liberal agenda? (5.00 / 3) (#10)
    by masslib on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 01:54:14 PM EST
    WTF?  Apparently, we've lost all concept of the word liberal.  This is just insane.

    Obviously we have (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by Rojas on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 07:07:09 PM EST
    Spitting hairs over the differences in the last three administrations is in fact tantamount to doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results.

    Parent
    Depressing (none / 0) (#37)
    by chrisvee on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 04:48:44 PM EST
    is what it is. It makes me want to go live on an island or in a bunker.

    Parent
    how old is mr. drum, 5? (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by cpinva on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 02:02:52 PM EST
    either he's a child, or spent the past decade sleeping in a cave, totally oblivious to what went on in the real world.

    how do people such as mr. drum get these high paid gigs spewing total rubbish? i'd like to know. for the right price, i too can spew absolute rubbish, and use lots more economicy, taxy and accountanty buzz words.

    who do i send my CV to?

    FWIW (none / 0) (#68)
    by gyrfalcon on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 12:49:58 AM EST
    being a blogger for Mother Jones is hardly a "high-paid gig."


    Parent
    I understand now why Drum is (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by Anne on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 02:13:35 PM EST
    ABG's go-to guy for support for why Obama is a master of the liberal agenda...but Kevin is, once again, going off the checklist of accomplishments and paying no real attention to the content:

    On the specific issue of the debt ceiling, the obvious thing Obama could have done differently was to insist that it be included as part of the lame duck deal last year. But for all the grief he's gotten over this, it's worth keeping in mind that Obama got a helluva lot out of that deal. In the end, he got a food safety bill, passage of the START treaty, a stimulus package, repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell, and a 9/11 first responders bill. Maybe it would have been worth risking all that over inclusion of a debt ceiling increase, but that's hardly an open-and-shut case.

    What's more, Obama also won passage during his first two years of a stimulus bill, a landmark healthcare bill that Democrats had been trying to pass for the better part of a century, a financial reform bill, and much needed reform of student loans. And more: a firm end to the Bush torture regime, the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, a hate crimes bill, a successful rescue of the American car industry, and resuscitation of the NLRB. Oh, and he killed Osama bin Laden too.

    [snip]

    Still and all, in two years Obama has done more to enact a liberal agenda than George Bush did for the conservative agenda in eight. That's not bad, folks. All things considered, I'd say Obama is the most effective politician of the Obama era. And the Bush era too.

    Yeesh.

    As to what he got for extending the Bush tax rates, it's only impressive if you assume that he could have gotten none of those things separately, or if you believe that what we have been through on the debt ceiling, most especially making hostage-taking a sport now open to both sides, and putting the safety net on the table, was worth it.

    Not to mention the actual substance and effect of the actual debt deal itself.  

    But, "the most effective politician of the Obama era?"  [hang on - everytime I read that, I throw up in my mouth a little]  I think if you're a Republican, you have to be pretty happy with what you got out of the deal - if you're a Democrat of the New Deal/FDR variety, if you're older, unemployed, or poor, it might be an understatement to say you're not pleased.

    The more I read Drum, the more he sounds like Booman.  And that's not a compliment.

    And (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 03:39:37 PM EST
    going off the checklist of accomplishments and paying no real attention to the content

    Increasingly, that's what you have to do.  Read the headlines.  Pay no attention to the detail. Look with your blinders on.  Ignore the magician's sleight of hand.  

    But he raised this here!  (while he lowered it there)....etc.

    Clear skies
    Healthy forest
    Obama's good policy

    Yeah.

    Parent

    I think you need to read him (none / 0) (#69)
    by gyrfalcon on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 12:51:53 AM EST
    more than you are because the Booman comparison is idiotic-- IMO.

    Parent
    asdb (5.00 / 2) (#29)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 03:55:32 PM EST
    And I chuckled when I read this ...

    Link

    Of course, it was to keep myself from crying....

    slightly OT (5.00 / 4) (#33)
    by CST on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 04:11:05 PM EST
    but you gotta love the onion.

    "Obama: Debt Ceiling Deal Required Tough Concessions By Both Democrats And Democrats Alike"

    "I'm truly grateful that both Democrats and their Democratic counterparts were able to reach this consensus, accepting an agreement that is far from perfect not just for Democrats, but also for Democrats"

    "Obama added that while it may look ugly at times, politics is about Democrats giving up what they want, as well as Democrats giving up what they want, until an agreement can ultimately be reached."

    What a (5.00 / 2) (#35)
    by lilburro on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 04:19:37 PM EST
    Glorious Liberal Era we are experiencing, here in our Center-Right Nation.  Thank you Kevin.

    I can't believe (5.00 / 2) (#38)
    by chrisvee on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 04:56:43 PM EST
    we're discussing a purported progressive Dem blogger's claim that Bush pursued a moderate to liberal agenda.

    It's surreal. I'm in the bizarro world.

    Parent

    Via David Dayen... (5.00 / 4) (#41)
    by oldpro on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 06:36:25 PM EST
    "What we have here is actually a poverty of imagination. There are plenty of things that the executive branch can do - power they've had since they came into office - to boost jobs. They have $80-$100 billion in unused TARP funds that could be put to productive use, including at least $40 billion dedicated for housing. They could use Fannie and Freddie much more aggressively than this renting idea, creating a kind of modern-day HOLC to buy up homes. They could use authorized programs like TALF to give aid to states or fund infrastructure projects. They could use monetary policy to force bank reserves into the lending sphere; at the very least they could fill the slots on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, at least one of which has been vacant since the beginning of the Obama Presidency. They could get any of the $30 billion small business lending fund out into the economy. They could use Treasury to legitimately punish China for manipulating their currency. Put these all together, along with ones I haven't thought of, and you have a "second stimulus" of equal or greater value than the first. And you don't have to consult John Boehner at all.

    This is what people who recognize a crisis when they see one would do. The quarter before Barack Obama became President had an 8.9% reduction in GDP growth. That's a depression, and it requires bold and relentless experimentation. Instead we get pivots and a focus on jobs, without the kind of innovation that would actually create them. I don't mean to criticize Nancy Pelosi here, she has a political responsibility, and should be talking about her agenda in contrast to the Republicans. But absent actual action to create jobs, a bushel of talk could only weaken the political position, as people see it amounting to nothing. This doesn't have to happen this way - a president has a good deal of power. It's just not being used."

    Basically agreed, but (none / 0) (#71)
    by gyrfalcon on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 12:54:54 AM EST
    we didn't know at the time it was an 8.9 reduction.  I think you know that, right?

    Parent
    The people who should have known (none / 0) (#75)
    by oldpro on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 01:18:08 AM EST
    knew it soon enough.  All but Geithner are gone now, I guess.

    Still...they dither.

    Leadership?  Not even in the ballpark.

    Parent

    Classic! (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by Robot Porter on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 06:44:13 PM EST
    Since they're having trouble convincing people that Obama isn't Bush II, they flip the script.  And send out the meme that Bush was actually a Liberal.

    I give this an A for hutzpah!

    But if anyone who buys this is a moron of titanic proportions.

    Needless to say, Kevin Drum earned that title long, long ago.

    I would like some of... (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by desertswine on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 08:11:31 PM EST
    whatever it is that Drum is smoking.

    The Bush tax cuts (5.00 / 3) (#60)
    by cal1942 on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 09:51:48 PM EST
    are even worse than the $4 trillion shortfall that analysts often cite.

    Cutting capital gains to 15% and removing dividends from the income steam and taxing them at a flat 15% fueled the massive income gaps.  That's how we get the 400 highest income families paying 16.6% in federal taxes.

    The capital gains rate and dividend separation are arguably bigger income gap makers than the lowering of the top marginal rate on earned income.

    Very rich folks don't get their income from salaries, wages and tips.

    A massive, mind-numbing blunder ... (5.00 / 1) (#66)
    by FreakyBeaky on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 12:38:26 AM EST
    ... not to move boldly and aggressively when he had the chance, choosing an incremental strategy and trusting to Republican reasonableness in the face of crisis. Not even trying for a stimulus bill even half the size his own advisors - at least the ones that were right - thought was needed ($0.8t x 2 < $1.8t). And don't get me started on the banks - if he'd been as tough on them as he was on GM, he and we would be in far better shape.

    What do I expect him to do now, you ask? Nothing. He's out of bullets and staring down the barrel of a double-dip recession he can do nothing to prevent, after claiming his economic policies were not to hot and not too cold, but just right. And he's screwed himself (and everyone else) even further with the debt deal. He's at the mercy of events, hoping for good news and an obviously insane Republican candidate in 2012.

    And if he doesn't get them, his so-called accomplishments will melt like a spring snow under the withering assault of a Republican congress and president - and you can be guaranteed they won't make the mistake of seeking consensus.

    It's the cronyism, stupid. (none / 0) (#9)
    by shoephone on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 01:51:31 PM EST
    Cronyism was the reigning recruitment policy of that White House. Putting big campaign contributors in positions of power. Joesph Albaugh, Michael Brown... Drum neglects to mention the rank incompetence at play during Hurricane Katrina, a monumental tragedy that none will remember as an example of Bushian liberalism, moderation, or even compassionate conservatism.

    Congratulations (none / 0) (#12)
    by lilburro on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 02:09:06 PM EST
    "11th dimensional chess" really gets around.

    I'm pretty proud of that one (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 02:29:28 PM EST
    I wish someone had listened to you on (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Anne on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 02:38:12 PM EST
    your administration fave, Tim Geithner...

    Via David Dayen and the NYT:

    The White House urged Tim Geithner to stay in his post, and apparently they got their wish. But it seems calculated based as much on fitness for the job as on the inability to get a replacement nominee through Congress:

    Speculation from Washington to Wall Street has intensified because Mr. Geithner, the only holdover at the center of Mr. Obama's original economic circle, said a month ago that he would decide on his future after the White House and Congress reached a deal to increase the nation's debt ceiling. Mr. Obama signed that deal into law on Tuesday.

    Mr. Obama and his chief of staff, William M. Daley, have been urging Mr. Geithner to stay, administration officials say, not only for continuity when the economy has weakened and to avoid an all-but-certain confirmation fight in the Senate over a successor, but also because Mr. Obama has developed a close rapport with Mr. Geithner.

    The broken appointment process could be ended in one second with the perfectly Constitutional maneuver of adjourning Congress. So that this is a consideration is all is pretty miserable. But "rapport" and, more important, a symbiosis on policy grounds is probably more like it.

    Not that it would have mattered, since Geithner would just have been swapped out for his ideological twin.

    Parent

    Ideological twin? (5.00 / 2) (#40)
    by NYShooter on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 06:32:48 PM EST
    Did you see the full list of potential replacements? I know Einstein said, "everything's relative," and compared to some on the "short list" Geithner is a regular Bernie Sanders.

    Parent
    Two names in the NYT, Reuters View, (none / 0) (#34)
    by KeysDan on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 04:11:27 PM EST
    Erskine Bowles and Jon Corzine--if Geithner decides to spend more time with his family (and cash in ).

    Parent
    Its a good one! (none / 0) (#28)
    by lilburro on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 03:54:21 PM EST
    MY's usage is interesting though.  And kind of funny.  You IIRC originally used it to describe progressives who thought Obama was going to achieve progressive goals through tricky maneuvering we just couldn't understand.  He seems to think the 11th dimensional chess is a way for Obama to purposefully not achieve his progressive goals.  

    How times have changed!

    Parent

    Bush Created World's Biggest Ocean Preserve (none / 0) (#14)
    by ArcliteHawaii on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 02:15:47 PM EST
    But look at the bright side BTD (none / 0) (#21)
    by Buckeye on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 03:11:09 PM EST
    Obama was able to talk Geitner into staying on as Treasury Secretary.  allll riiiightttt!!!!!

    NBC broke thru our normal programming (none / 0) (#24)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 03:21:45 PM EST
    for breaking news about the tanking of the stock market today.

    Thank You Saint Timmeh !

    You blame this on (none / 0) (#70)
    by gyrfalcon on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 12:52:44 AM EST
    Geithner why?

    Parent
    Because (none / 0) (#79)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 11:23:07 AM EST
    the shredding of our economy can be put very much on Geithner and his boss the president.

    I know all the excuses.  Last week, the excuse was the debt ceiling.....

    Parent

    Most excellent title (none / 0) (#27)
    by oculus on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 03:45:37 PM EST
    (Whatever did Tim Tebow say?  Watching in pub @ airport--no sound.)


    Google Merrill Hoge (none / 0) (#31)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 04:02:10 PM EST
    I have a feeling we may be headed towards (none / 0) (#32)
    by andgarden on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 04:06:16 PM EST
    a rerun of that. . .

    Where (none / 0) (#39)
    by scribe on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 05:39:22 PM EST
    do they find dipsh1ts like this?

    OK here is my polls post (none / 0) (#46)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 08:22:35 PM EST
    It is clear now that dems, liberals and moderates support the deal in greater numbers than conservatives.

    How does this correlate to the message of betrayal this was supposed to have sent and the victory in public opinion the GOP was supposed to have won.

    I am still trying to connect the reality as viewed by the average observer with the reality as viewed by the pundits on both sides.

    Everyone seems to think this was a huge political loss for the dems except most people.

    Again, a poll done today (5.00 / 3) (#47)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 08:36:49 PM EST
    by whom? seriously, I tend to follow the linkies.

    And polls... I'll just collect all of my posts on polls and make a diary of it, while adding to it.

    I think jbindc may be correct... time for me to write a looooooong examination of polling versus scientific methods.

    Parent

    Jeff, (5.00 / 2) (#50)
    by NYShooter on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 08:59:13 PM EST
    Instead of a Looooooong post on the different machinations regarding polls, it can be summed up in that catch all phrase, "figures lie, and liars figure."

    We have this daily poll in our local newspaper about simple, local happenings, you know, like, "what do you think of the closing of Market Street? Good idea, or bad? My family has a little fun predicting the outcome of these polls, because they're so predictable. Its like Bill O'Reilly asking on his t.v. program, "who has the better idea, Liberals or Conservatives?"  "We'll post the results at the end of the program."  (Like we have to wait "for the end of the program" to find out the results)

    Without knowing ALL the factors involved in Polls, and their results, and that would take the equivalent of a Doctoral thesis, the useful information gotten from most polls is exactly "0"....Zero, Zilch, Nada.


    Parent

    NY, (5.00 / 1) (#57)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 09:35:03 PM EST
    sampling and questionnaires can be useful, but by golly, any poll that requires people to voluntarily answer (like the polls on FOX programs, CNN programs, on "The Ed Show," and on others, including American Idol and Dancing with the stars, these polls suffer from selection bias. People have to opt in to taking them.

    Remember the DKOS mantra from 8 years ago? "FREEP this poll?" The right did/does it, also.

    Bias comes from the people who would select to watch certain programs/channels, who take the newspaper, and then who decide to positively cast a vote in it.

    Telephone polls have gotten less and less valid based on certain laws that restrict telephone polling only to those with land line telephones.

    So... who maintains land line telephones? Jep, they still exist. But the self-selection to LL telephone excludes those who use cell phones or other technologies.

    Why is this important? Simple. If you randomly select 2k people throughout the USA based on LL telephone numbers, you exclude EVERYONE ELSE who has abandoned the LL telephone, sui generis.

    If you have a poll that says, "text or call to reply," only those who either a) care enough; b)receive the message (such as watching a program with a poll question); or C) have enough time and/or ability to respond.

    There are ways to poll, and ways not to. Also, given that, as I have stated before, an attitudinal poll ONLY reflects the attitude of the respondent AT THAT MOMENT IN TIME, a 2011 attitudinal poll tells us less than nothing about the 2012 races, for example. I say "less than nothing" because such polls allow people to grasp them and reify them-- make it an ede'e fixe... that some poll from bubba's muffler repair and polling, Gallup, or anyone else, for that matter, including myself, were I polling and releasing data now-- suddenly, simply BECAUSE a poll exists, since most people do them incorrectly and most people interpret them incorrectly, leads to subsequent polls in the same vein. Each one adding an order of magnitude to the lack of valid, reliable data coming from said polls.

    Geebus. I have been doing and teaching this stuff for 21 years. I've been hired by different states, by federal judges, and universities. I've even been approached by the big polling firms.

    I may know a little bit about this. Finding my record on this academically would not be difficult to do. I won't post any links to my research, but suffice it to say, there's plenty of it out there.

    All statistics, all polls, aren't lies. But there are so many ways to lie with the information gathered that books such as "How to Lie with Statistics" was first published in the 1960s.

    ARGH!

    An attitudinal poll taken on some recently-passed legislation in August, 2011, DOES NOT INDICATE ANYTHING ABOUT THE ISSUE, except what the people think or feel today, or the day they answered. As people learn more, or feel the effects more, or see the effects more, their attitude changes.  ARRRGH!

    I'll be quiet now, and go watch some movie, like "Plan 9 from Outer Space," or maybe some youtube videos of root canals gone wrong.

    Parent

    Thank you, obviously you (5.00 / 1) (#64)
    by NYShooter on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 12:10:29 AM EST
    know your stuff, and the examples you gave regarding the factors that go into the proper evaluation of polls only scratched the surface.

    More importantly, your analysis is worth heeding because of your personal, actual, "hands on" experience with the topic, not your opinion based on some sort of deductive reasoning of other people's opinions. That's what some people commenting here just can't get their heads around.

    I believe my opinions regarding business topics is worth taking into consideration for the very same reason; I've been in active management of both medium and very large companies for 40 (+ -) years.

    For that very reason I can state categorically that a sacred cow canard making the rounds these days is totally bogus; namely, the "reason" businesses aren't hiring, or expanding, is their "uncertainty" about some proposed regulations being discussed. Can you just imagine the CEO of IBM, for example, after reporting record sales, record profits, record everything telling his top management, "Stop everything! Cancel your plans for new markets, ditto new products, ditto research and development. I just got news that Washington is considering the prohibition of hiring handicapped people at $2.00 per hour. How can we possibly plan our future not knowing what crazy rules they'll come up with next?"

    That's Nuts, you say? Not when virtually every "very serious" pundit and politician is parroting that very same line day in, and day out.

    You want to know why markets the world over are plummeting? Its not because the existing problems are insurmountable; its because investors are finally realizing that the people in charge of solving the problems, and the people who caused the problem, are one and the same.

    Parent

    Thanks for sharing your expertise. (none / 0) (#67)
    by jeffinalabama on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 12:38:33 AM EST
    I'm always willing to learn when someone has experience in an area I don't, because, like in oyur case, you've been there, and you know those intricacies that make a huge difference.

    Heck, if I hadn't been RIF'ed  by the Army, I'd not know what I know.

    Hope to see your posts later today!

    Parent

    The "uncertainty" meme is idiotic (none / 0) (#72)
    by gyrfalcon on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 12:59:45 AM EST
    for companies the size and scope of IBM, of course.

    But I can tell you from talking to small biz people I know that it's very much a factor in their decisions.  Obviously, if they're experiencing a huge upsurge in demand, they'd go ahead anyway.  But when you operate on the kind of margins most small businesses do, it's a very different matter.

    It's not the biggest factor at all, don't mean to suggest that, but it is a factor and it's real.  And of course, it's being daily reinforced by the right-wing media they tend to listen to, Fox and even Limbaugh.

    So it may not be altogether rational, but small biz doesn't always act as rationally as big corporations do.

    Just sayin'.


    Parent

    the only thing that drives jobs creation (none / 0) (#77)
    by TeresaInPa on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 08:50:54 AM EST
    is demand.  Business owners may say they are worried about regulations, but they are lying either to you or to themselves.  If there is demand they hire to meet it.  If there is no demand, all the deregulation and tax cutting they could ask for will not get them to hire new people.  If they are hiring over seas it is about labor cost.  Businesses which hire over seas and whine about the cost of doing business here should be allowed to leave and invited to not let the door hit them in the a$$ on the way out. And they should take their products and services to the third world countries where they have their jobs growth.


    Parent
    It is difficult to (5.00 / 1) (#48)
    by observed on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 08:50:46 PM EST
    respond to this innumerate, politically obtuse comment without being insulting, nor do I feel motivated to hold back.  Your  problem is that since you believe Obama  is always doing great, every poll confirms your belief. Republicans  would disapprove of Obama if he cured AIDS and ended poverty.


    Parent
    Just address the point (none / 0) (#49)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 08:56:23 PM EST
    Which has nothing to do with Obama being right or wrong.

    It has to do with our ability to accurately judge public opinion.

    Pundits of all sides appear to have misjudged the way that the deal would be viewed by the public.  

    I am asking for an explanation.  Jeff's explanation is that polls are not to be relied on. Is that yours?

    Parent

    You think a 72 (none / 0) (#51)
    by observed on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 09:03:52 PM EST
    percent approval  rating from liberals is good news. Need I say more?


    Parent
    That is not the question (none / 0) (#53)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 09:16:16 PM EST
    Because you are still focusing on bashing Obama and think that my questions about supporting him.

    This is about opinions specifically on the deal.  To be honest these poll numbers were completely unexpected.  I thought liberals would hate the deal most while conservatives liking the deal the most.  The exact opposite has occurred. I thought the cause might be the fact that any deal is defined by the party whose president signs it, but that doesn't seem connected to the way this played out.  This deal was the result of a conservative tactic in which they got cuts and yielded nothing on their biggest issue: taxes. It has GOP all over it and if you read this blog, you'd think it was the worst thing a liberal could endure. But oddly, moderate dems like it less than conservative dems. In that way party ID is neutralized and raw ideology should govern but the numbers don't reflect that.

    I actually have no idea why this is happening.  If I were a betting man, and I am,I would have bet against the splits we're seeing.

    Parent

    I would think it was obvious (5.00 / 4) (#73)
    by gyrfalcon on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 01:03:20 AM EST
    The public is grotesquely misinformed on issues as complicated as this, no thanks to Obama, who's been yapping Republican talking points about the need to cut spending.

     

    Parent

    ah, you are surprised (none / 0) (#55)
    by observed on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 09:24:39 PM EST
    that your belief in Obama's acumen  has  been verified. Ever hear of closed systems, bud? Btw, it is not my problem if you cannot grasp simple points.


    Parent
    Observed (none / 0) (#56)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 09:31:15 PM EST
    It's easy to make personal attacks and it is often the tactic of those who can't make more complex ones.

    No need to sink to your level to prove anything. Just call me dumb and let's graduate to the next elementary school level of discussion.

    Parent

    your comments offer (none / 0) (#58)
    by observed on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 09:37:09 PM EST
    eloquent testimony to your  level  of intelligence, your depth, and your degree of self awareness.


    Parent
    A poll taken today? (none / 0) (#52)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 09:13:11 PM EST
    Provide a link to the poll, so that I may critique it as a recognized expert with 21 years experience in quantitative methodology.

    Finding out who I am and what I've written in academic journals should be easy enough.

    Parent

    Jeff (none / 0) (#54)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 09:23:31 PM EST
    The poll withe the lib v con breakdown was gallup. The new CBS poll doesn't do that. It breaks by party and is here

    http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Aug11a-all.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody

    Same concept though. It is not at all what I would expect but reflects a similar trend of dems and libs being more happy than one would think.

    Heck a majority of dems think the cuts were just right or didn't go far enough.  It's another planet from the discussions here.

    Parent

    I'm not surprized (5.00 / 1) (#59)
    by cal1942 on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 09:39:46 PM EST
    polling showed support for cuts from Democrats.  The news media has been pushing the story about massive unsustainable deficits for some time with almost no voices warning that cuts could fracture an already anemic "recovery."

    Parent
    Thanks, ABG. Let me make a few comments... (5.00 / 2) (#61)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 10:11:26 PM EST
    Here's the explanation of the methodology:

    This poll was conducted by telephone on August 2-3, 2011 among 960 adults nationwide who were first interviewed in two polls: a CBS News/New York Times Poll conducted June 24-28, 2011 and a CBS News Poll conducted July 15-17, 2011. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls

    Darn it, I can't toggle right now, give me a sec...

    back.


    Views on the Debt Ceiling Deal
    Strongly approve 4%
    Somewhat approve 42
    ----
    Total Approve 46%
    Somewhat disapprove 26
    Strongly disapprove 19
    ----
    Total Disapprove 45%

    Conditional approval here remains huge, as does conditional disapproval. This shows a split just about right down the middle. Let's not aggregate approval and disapproval as CBS and the NY Times did, because we haven't been given enough information. Were the only options Strong A, somewhat A, somewhat D, strong D?

    interesting to see that the strongly disapprove is at 19 percent, versus 4 percent strongly approving...

    I better not blog-clog by analyzing this entire poll here... I may devote a diary to it... but one thing I can tell you right now, this was a cohort study, which is good. Tracking the same people over time adds strength to it.

    But I question (I) the strength of categorical answers since they were forced to either a) one of four choices or b) one of two choices, depending on the questions.

    (II) the demographics, since they were not displayed.

    (III) the strength (power is the statistical term) of the analysis based on 960 respondents nationwide.

    I'll bring it back to the categorical questions... more nuance would come from scales or indexes. Each of these categories either names a group held responsible, or gives a nonquantifiable "very, Somewhat, somewhat, very" reply. As to q32, without having any idea what the household income is, throw that one out...

    I won't blog-clog with this, but I can write a detailed critique and post it as a link.

    Thanks for posting this. My faith in pollsters has actually dropped! I'm glad to see even a short-term longitudinal cohort, but these were, ahem, extremely general questions. With the lack of demographic data, such as age, sex, region, city size, so that we could do a scatterplot by state or by city nationwide, we can't conclude precisely what demographics the poll represents, other than D, R, or I.

    Not much info. I was happy to see the pollsters using some cellphones, though. I'd like to find out the percentage breakdown of that, though...

    But here's the big issue, the lack of demographics, the lack of nuance. Instead of political parties, this poll could have asked, "Which do you prefer most? Cake, Pie, or Ice Cream?" and gotten the same results, same margin of error, etc. It's the old, "devil in the details (or lack thereof)." Want me to go further? I have more critique, but, geez, I don't want to bore you. Seriously.

    Parent

    Wow (none / 0) (#62)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 10:13:58 PM EST
    Good stuff.

    Parent
    I'm not bragging here, (none / 0) (#63)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 10:18:10 PM EST
    but on the matters of polling, surveys, statistics, and methodology, I do know a lot. Yes, there are plenty of folks who know more. I'm comfortable to put myself in the top 10 percent in terms of attitudinal research, though. I don't think I'm exaggerating. OF course, there are a heck of a lot of folks doing this, so it's not a rarified atmosphere like oh, among the top 80, or even 800.

    Parent
    Jeff, please do write (none / 0) (#74)
    by gyrfalcon on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 01:09:52 AM EST
    a good long diary on this stuff.  Some of us at least would find it fascinating.  I've long been a skeptic on this kind of poll, so I'm delighted to see you have good analysis that agrees with my rather knee-jerk prejudices.

    More, please!

    Parent

    Public Opinion (none / 0) (#78)
    by jmacWA on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 08:59:06 AM EST
    is easily swayed by marketing, which is one of the greatest evils ever brought on mankind by themselves.  Everything is ruled by the subliminal messages sent to us everday.

    My opinion only.

    Parent

    Easily broken down. (5.00 / 1) (#65)
    by Left of the Left on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 12:21:41 AM EST
    It is clear now that dems, liberals and moderates support the deal in greater numbers than conservatives.

    of course, they support the president, and still believe him. As to why? thats a better question.


    How does this correlate to the message of betrayal this was supposed to have sent and the victory in public opinion the GOP was supposed to have won.

    I dont recall pundits saying the GOP won the PR war. But the PR war is less important than whether or not the deal is any good. I know not to you, but to reality. When the economy slows and unemployment rises Obama can speechify on how he won the narrative.

    I am still trying to connect the reality as viewed by the average observer with the reality as viewed by the pundits on both sides.

    Everyone seems to think this was a huge political loss for the dems except most people.

    Look at the trend of Obamas approval on Gallup daily tracking since the deal, then comeback and explain to me how those people dont seem to be feeling the victory.

    Parent