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What Obama Wants To Project Regarding The Economy

Brad DeLong on Ryan Avent's comment about Obama and the economy:

[Ryan Avent]:

[W]hat is Mr Obama's plan? When Americans look at him now, what does he want them to see? Having bought so completely into the story that immediate deficit-cutting is necessary, Mr Obama can't easily demand new stimulus. At best, he can argue that his painful cuts are better in some way than those proposed by Republicans. "I'm not as bad as the other guy", is not a winning incumbent message when voters are upset.... Right now, the Obama administration seems short of economic ideas and (perhaps worse still) uninterested in labour market troubles. His Republican challengers aren't offering anything better. But Mr Obama has made himself extraordinarily vulnerable on the economy, and if he loses his job as a result he has only himself to blame.

The five things to do are: 1) recess-appoint qualified Federal Reserve Governors who understand the macroeconomics; 2) take as much risk as possible onto the Treasury's balance sheet so that the skittish private sector does not need to hold it; 3) use FANNIE and FREDDIE to goose the housing market; 4) have Tim Geithner say that at the moment a weaker dollar is in America's interest; 5) pray that the bond market does not panic.

(Emphasis supplied.) I'm not sure what DeLong means by "use FANNIE and FREDDIE to goose the housing market." I'm for using them to give relief to distressed homeowners, which should also help the housing market. Oh by the way, there is also $50 billion of HAMP money just sitting there.

Speaking for me only

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    I'm wondering (5.00 / 2) (#1)
    by lilburro on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 03:40:24 PM EST
    do they think there is some political risk in helping the housing market now?  Do they take the "moral hazard" argument seriously enough to believe it will turn off voters?

    This is the first time in months and months that I've felt some good policy might be put forward re: the economy.  But maybe I'm being foolish.

    I'm guessing that the O people believe the (5.00 / 4) (#2)
    by inclusiveheart on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 03:53:37 PM EST
    moral hazard canard.  I think that these people sound a lot like my Grandparents who were awfully nice in a way, but really believed that if you lost your job or you had any problems with your finances, you were some sort of deserving leper who should be left to deal with it on your own - for better or for worse.  

    I do not believe that they care about voters as much as they care about the Masters of the universe.  I think that they believe that they can talk people out of their misery - that they can sell a future without delivering any hope or progress in the present.  And for those people who feel that they should be doing more, they will pull out the Republican Obstructionist card and waive it furiously saying, "What are we supposed to do?"

    The vast majority of people are totally lacking in understanding the real levers of power that Obama et al could be enlisting right now and will buy it.  But they probably won't vote for him next time.  People don't enthusiastically vote for Presidential candidates/incumbents who appear to be too weak to do what they want them to do.  Obama as hostage to the GOP won't resonate with the vast majority of the electorate as someone to continue to support.  Feel sorry for him?  Sure.  But want him as a leader?  Not so much.

    Parent

    Moral hazard for the peons (5.00 / 3) (#12)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 04:32:00 PM EST
    But none for the rich and for Wall Street because those things are all too big to fail.  I'm not against moral hazard, but selective moral hazard only for the middle and poor destroys governments and nations and economies and civil society.

    Parent
    I won't call you foolish (5.00 / 2) (#4)
    by Warren Terrer on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 03:55:49 PM EST
    because it's only human to hope for good policy. But everything I'm reading says Obama is completely in the throes of deficit hysteria. That is the worst policy possible and nothing good will come of it.

    Parent
    Yep, Obama looks hysterical. (none / 0) (#6)
    by Farmboy on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 04:11:10 PM EST
    Every time I see him on TV I say, wow, just look how overemotional, out of control, frenzied, frantic, wild, feverish, crazed, agitated, berserk, manic, delirious, unhinged, deranged, raving, and out of his mind he is about the deficit.

    You called it. Nail on the head.

    Parent

    Weak (none / 0) (#8)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 04:13:29 PM EST
    Whatever the merits of the comments, the use of "hysteria" was not literal.

    Parent
    No no (none / 0) (#9)
    by Warren Terrer on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 04:19:16 PM EST
    farmboy is right. That's EXACTLY what I meant. :D

    Parent
    The use of hysteria wasn't literal, but the (none / 0) (#10)
    by Farmboy on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 04:21:15 PM EST
    sarcasm was.

    "Throes of deficit hysteria" is hyperbole. I just responded in the same vein.

    Parent

    No need (5.00 / 4) (#13)
    by Warren Terrer on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 04:33:15 PM EST
    I meant it literally. In fact just 5 minutes ago I saw Obama run past my house, his arms flailing wildly and his hair on fire, as he screamed "OMG, run for your lives, the deficit is going to kill us all!".

    Parent
    You, sir, win one internet. (none / 0) (#15)
    by Farmboy on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 04:46:44 PM EST
    Please claim your prize within the next 30 days. Offer valid only at participating sites. Possible penalties for early withdrawal. Slightly higher west of the Rockies. Allow four to six weeks for delivery.

    Parent
    Yep (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by Warren Terrer on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 03:54:23 PM EST
    Having bought so completely into the story that immediate deficit-cutting is necessary, Mr Obama can't easily demand new stimulus.

    Of course he can't. But why would he? You can't believe in both deficit cutting and stimulus, since they are complete opposites. Obama isn't even considering new stimulus, let alone worrying about how to go about demanding it. He abandoned the concept back in 2009. Total failure.

    1. He can't possibly appoint qualified governors to Fed given that he thinks Geithner and Bernanke are qualified for their jobs.

    2. What risk does he mean exactly? Held by who in the private sector? Sadly I think he means toxic mortgage assets. I.e. have treasury bail out the banks and investors, not average people.

    3. Fannie and Freddie? I think he means force them to lend money to people to buy houses. Unfortunately there are way more houses available than there are qualified buyers because people don't have jobs.

    4. This is the argument for eliminating the trade deficit, which is the beggar thy neighbor strategy that Krugman often criticizes. The entire world is in economic crisis and is desperately trying to slash spending. Who is the US going to sell its products to? One country's trade surplus is another countries trade deficit. This is not a solution unless, as Krugman has said, we find another planet that we can trade with.

    5)Irrelevant in that the US is sovereign in its own currency and does not use the bond market for funding. It's not just that the bond vigilantes aren't here yet, it's that they do not exist.

    He doesnt know how to demand (none / 0) (#38)
    by Amiss on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 02:39:14 AM EST
    anything. What has he demanded for you lately?

    "Mr Obama can't easily demand new stimulus."

    Parent

    He owns the economy (none / 0) (#54)
    by jbindc on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 12:47:34 PM EST
    Now if his administration and fanboys would get the message....

    Parent
    Is the author unaware that there can be no (5.00 / 5) (#5)
    by Farmboy on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 04:06:53 PM EST
    recess appointments until the GOP takes back the White House?

    But at least filibusters will end when they (5.00 / 6) (#7)
    by ruffian on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 04:12:10 PM EST
    take back the Senate.

    Parent
    Take the risk that the private sector (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 04:27:40 PM EST
    created without making them responsible and without regulating them? They'll just make more. We've already been down this road and leverage is all that America's rich are hell bent on making these days. Without moral hazard for the private sector they have no ethics or morals and they don't have any regulations anymore either.  We need work projects. The damned infrastructure of this country is a crumbling mess from all the tax cuts in my lifetime anyhow.  Time to fix it, time to employ people.  That is the risk that needs to be sitting on Treasury's balance sheet.

    Pointless to ask for it though with this administration.  Bring on the Great Great Depression

    He believed in the acting schtick (none / 0) (#39)
    by Amiss on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 02:42:59 AM EST
    of Reagan too much, and doesnt realize that Reagan was an "actor" not too many actors I know of know anything about economics, thats what they have business managers for.

    Parent
    Goose the housing market?? (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 04:42:36 PM EST
    How? The problem is that we have more than we need.

    Cut interest rates? They are already at 45 year lows.

    Tax credits for first time buyers? Well, we did that and it looks like we have ran out of first time buyers.

    Make the banks cut payments to allow people to keep their homes? Okay, but who carries the paper? Besides, that just keeps people in the house, which doesn't increase demand but it does help stabilize supply.

    The problem is that the basic needs of people are nearing hyper inflation and with the economy flat there is no extra bucks to spend after housing, utilities, transportation and food.

    Wanna have a recovery? Get oil down to $50 a barrel.

    It really is just that simple.

    That simple ey? (5.00 / 3) (#16)
    by CST on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 04:55:22 PM EST
    Time to start a war with Saudi Arabia!

    Or I know, lets eliminate all safety restrictions on oil companies so they can drill here, drill now, and drill today.  Keep your fingers crossed that it ends up in the pump and not in the Gulf.

    Or maybe we should just sell the state of Alaska to Exxon Mobil.

    They should be able to start selling us the refined oil from that tommorow, right?

    The problem is that people have no jobs.  If you have a decent job, you can afford more than just basic necessities.

    Parent

    Y'know, Jim and I play poker and we don't (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by jeffinalabama on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 05:33:21 PM EST
    agree on much. But here's the rub. Oil is not in high demand, but the price is exceptionally high. Why? Supply is there, at the same level when oil was 50-75 /bbl.

    Look to wall street, look to speculators. China's not sucking the world dry, and Japan is a mess. quit betting on the spot market. Hell, cancel the spot market in the US. What would happen to the smaller spot markets-- and this includes Chinas... prices would decline. The only equilibium in the price of oil, and its an artificai equilibirum, is reliance on market pressure.

    I disgree with Jim in drilling ourselves out of this issue UNLESS AND UNTIL refining capacity id at a minimum 50 percent more in the US. Oil is a short term solution. Pebble bed reactors are th long term solution, and fusion the ultimate goal.

    But we, the USA, needs to change the rules. This includes destroying spot prices, allowing some subsidies for the exploratory drillers, and ending BIG OIL's dominance. Big oil doesn't care about the US. IT cares about quarterly profits.

    Parent

    nothing to argue with there (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by CST on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 05:40:28 PM EST
    I know gas prices are a problem now, I didn't mean to suggest otherwise.  But gas prices were a lot lower a few months ago and it wasn't all sunshine and rainbows then either.

    Higher oil prices hurt a lot more when you can't afford it than when you can.  So I don't deny that this is a problem for people.  I just think the problem is much much bigger than oil prices.

    Parent

    Yep.. nobody's hiring except McDonalds. (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by jeffinalabama on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 06:20:48 PM EST
    In and of itself a majr issue, but cutting the price of diesel makes it less expensive to truck or train, too. it's a number of factors, including the worst governance since... possibly Hoover.

    Parent
    I think that all we need to do is just announce (2.00 / 1) (#29)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 08:08:22 PM EST
    a crash drilling effort and the speculative bubble will burst just as it did after Bush belatedly issued his EO which turned us loosed on the Continental shelf.

    But... and this is important. As soon as the Obama admin came in, what did it do?

    Started pulling back.

    And gasoline started climbing from $1.81 to its current highs of around $4.00

    Cause and effect... night follows day.... summer follows spring...

    Parent

    Heh, heh ... day causes night (5.00 / 2) (#44)
    by Yman on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 08:52:26 AM EST
    "Cause and effect"?  So it's a basic logic problem, huh, Jim?  The fact that one thing follows another does not establish causation, Jim.  It's a logical fallacy - Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    The funniest part is your examples (day/night, spring/summer).

    They're textbook illustrations of the fallacy.

    Parent

    Actually you seem incapable (none / 0) (#45)
    by jimakaPPJ on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 10:09:56 AM EST
    of grasping the ...... between the comments.... what that means is that each is separate and are not related.

    Now, you have stalked me enough and picked a quarrel enough so I will just put you on the ignore list for this thread.

    lol

    Parent

    Good to hear (5.00 / 1) (#47)
    by Yman on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 10:16:45 AM EST
    But... and this is important. As soon as the Obama admin came in, what did it do?

    Started pulling back.

    And gasoline started climbing from $1.81 to its current highs of around $4.00

    Cause and effect... night follows day.... summer follows spring...

    ... there's no cause-and-effect, ... 'cause it looked like you were claiming otherwise.

    BTW - "Ignore list"? - Yeah, ...

    ... good idea to do that when you've been so plainly busted.

    Parent

    Just for you because you need help (none / 0) (#51)
    by jimakaPPJ on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 10:36:12 AM EST
    The cause was this:

    link

    The effect was this:

    Link

    Night follows day:

    Link

    Summer follows spring

    Link

    Parent

    So you WERE claiming ... (none / 0) (#52)
    by Yman on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 10:44:47 AM EST
    ... a cause-effect relationship.  I thought the elipses meant there was no cause and effect - at least in Jimland.  You really should try to make up your mind.

    Heh, heh ...

    BTW - Good to know your evidence of causation consists of a Youtube video which doesn't even say what its author claims.

    Classic.

    Parent

    Obama thinks (none / 0) (#55)
    by jimakaPPJ on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 12:49:06 PM EST
    high gas prices are okay if they come on slowly... Obama shuts down drilling..... gasoline prices climb slowly...

    economy tanks at an ever increasing pace...

    You can run, but you can't hide.

    lol

    Parent

    No need to hide ... (none / 0) (#58)
    by Yman on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 01:45:38 PM EST
    ... from baseless accusations supported by nothing.

    Post hoc ergo propter hoc, Jim.

    You can run from logic, but your fairytale arguments will just crumble.

    Parent

    Fairy tales showing Obama the candiate (none / 0) (#64)
    by jimakaPPJ on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:13:16 PM EST
    saying what he believes is a problem, eh?

    ;-)

    Parent

    BTW - They're called "ellipses", Jim ... (none / 0) (#49)
    by Yman on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 10:22:07 AM EST
    Let me see, CST (3.00 / 2) (#28)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 07:56:21 PM EST
    Your soultion, if I can call it that, is to do nothing.

    And the price of gasoline, as Jeff points out, has little to do with supply. As the man said, "There is no shortage of oil... just a shortage of cheap oil."

    Fact is that what we have been doing is not working.

    And that is an easily observable fact.

    Parent

    Want to have mass starvation in (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by observed on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 05:51:14 PM EST
    20 years or so? Then ignore Peak Oil and make low prices today the highest priority.
    I feel like Americans are like ostriches:it's just common sense that with the economic growth of India and China, our oil use must change---the fact Peak Oil has probably passed only makes the problem more urgent.
    It's 30 fricking years too late to be dealing responsibly with our energy policy, but sure, kick the can down the road for your grandkids to deal with.

    Parent
    peak oil and capiertalism (none / 0) (#26)
    by jeffinalabama on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 06:23:23 PM EST
    ie speculation, don't matter. I offered at least one short-term solution, and here's another... hydrogen power for vehicles. It has been more than feasible for 40 years. No fuel cells, make electrolysis at hydrogen stations and fill the tank.


    Parent
    Peak oil?? (none / 0) (#30)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 08:20:52 PM EST
    Right now, America has an estimated 22.3 billion barrels of oil reserves. But that's hardly the whole story. A recent Congressional Research Service report that I commissioned with Sen. Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma found that the United States' recoverable oil resources are estimated at 157 billion barrels. That is seven times as much as our reserves and doesn't even include the roughly 900 billion barrels of unconventional oil resources nearing commercialization.

    Consider this: While our nation's oil "reserves" have never reached 40 billion barrels, we've managed to produce nearly 200 billion barrels since 1900. Between 2008 and 2009, America's oil reserves rose more than 8 percent, even as roughly 2 billion barrels were produced. That was made possible by our substantial resource base. Reserves alone have never provided the full picture.

    Link

    I have no problem with pushing new technologies. But what I see is people pushing new technologies, wind and solar, by taxes and propaganda. And neither will do the job. Ethanol is a net loss.

    Nuclear and fusion? Absolutely but the environmentalist will never let that happen. Why?

    Four Dirty Secrets about Clean Energy

    Parent

    The Chinese aren't in cahoots with Al Gore (none / 0) (#31)
    by Raymond Bell on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 09:25:43 PM EST
    but they are pushing wind and solar power as well, and they don't need taxes or propaganda to do so.

    Parent
    And your point is??? (none / 0) (#34)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 10:53:51 PM EST
    Please define "pushing."

    If you mean they are loving producing solar panels and wind mills I would say they are just selling us what they see us wanting.

    Parent

    I'm sorry you seem to have trouble with (none / 0) (#42)
    by Raymond Bell on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 07:46:58 AM EST
    understanding simple words.

    If you mean they are loving producing solar panels and wind mills

    Nope.

    By pushing, I'm referring to the well-documented fact that they're increasing their use of such energy sources in their own economy.

    Hope this clears things up for you.

    Parent

    Provide some of that well documented (none / 0) (#48)
    by jimakaPPJ on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 10:20:57 AM EST
    source(s) and then look at the new coal powered plants they are opening.

    Look, I'm not against solar and wind. I just recognize that they are not even close to being competitive and affordable in price and that they are not reliable enough to stand on their own. Both must have back up systems.

    Parent

    Is Fox News a credible (5.00 / 1) (#53)
    by Raymond Bell on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 11:13:32 AM EST
    source?

    China's production of green technologies has grown by a remarkable 77 per cent a year, according to the report, which was commissioned by the World Wildlife Fund for Nature and which will be unveiled on Monday at an industry conference in Amsterdam.

    "The Chinese have made, on the political level, a conscious decision to capture this market and to develop this market aggressively," said Donald Pols, an economist with the WWF.
    (snip)
    Until recently, Chinese massive production of solar cells was aimed at the export market, but they are now making solar systems for the home market, as they have been doing for several years in wind energy, Van den Berg said.

    US ranks 17 as clean tech producer, China is No. 2

    I just recognize that they are not even close to being competitive and affordable in price and that they are not reliable enough to stand on their own. Both must have back up systems

    And the people who work on solar and wind power are well-aware of those problems, even if some of them don't speak English as a first language.

    You don't have much confidence in human ingenuity, and I find your lack of faith disturbing.

    Parent

    If you mean I don't believe (none / 0) (#56)
    by jimakaPPJ on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 12:59:20 PM EST
    Unicorn gaseous emmissions is the answer, then color me "no faith."

    Now, to be serious, I wrote:

    If you mean they are loving producing solar panels and wind mills I would say they are just selling us what they see us wanting.

    You quote:

    by a remarkable 77 per cent a year,

    snip

    "The Chinese have made, on the political level, a conscious decision to capture this market and to develop this market aggressively,

    snip

    Until recently, Chinese massive production of solar cells was aimed at the export market, but they are now making solar systems for the home market,

    Thanks for making my point, and I will continue to accept yours that they will want to dabble in "green" for certain parts of China.

    Is Fox credible?? Is the World Wildlife Fund for Nature credible?? I guess Fox reports and we decide.

    ;-)

    Parent

    And take my advice (none / 0) (#61)
    by Raymond Bell on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 02:22:42 PM EST
    moving goal posts doesn't win you much honor or arguments either.

    :-)

    Parent

    No advice (none / 0) (#62)
    by jimakaPPJ on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 05:59:58 PM EST
    And no argument.

    Just what I see as a proper comment/response.

    I call it "conversation."

    Parent

    whatever (none / 0) (#66)
    by Raymond Bell on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:43:26 PM EST
    If you mean I don't believe (none / 0) (#57)
    by jimakaPPJ on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 12:59:20 PM EST
    Unicorn gaseous emmissions is the answer, then color me "no faith."

    Now, to be serious, I wrote:

    If you mean they are loving producing solar panels and wind mills I would say they are just selling us what they see us wanting.

    You quote:

    by a remarkable 77 per cent a year,

    snip

    "The Chinese have made, on the political level, a conscious decision to capture this market and to develop this market aggressively,

    snip

    Until recently, Chinese massive production of solar cells was aimed at the export market, but they are now making solar systems for the home market,

    Thanks for making my point, and I will continue to accept yours that they will want to dabble in "green" for certain parts of China.

    Is Fox credible?? Is the World Wildlife Fund for Nature credible?? I guess Fox reports and we decide.

    ;-)

    Parent

    Obviously, I meant Fox News (none / 0) (#60)
    by Raymond Bell on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 02:21:39 PM EST
    But then I should've figured you for a real worshiper of some sort.

    Thanks for making my point

    but they are now making solar systems for the home market

    But you ignore that part, why?  Because it doesn't fit in with your "Chinese are building lots of coal-fired plants"?

    That's why.

    Is Fox credible?? Is the World Wildlife Fund for Nature credible?? I guess Fox reports and we decide.

    Thanks for allowing me a gracious victory.

    Parent

    Goodness gracious we seem to be talking past (none / 0) (#63)
    by jimakaPPJ on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:10:43 PM EST
    each other.

    You write:

    but they are now making solar systems for the home market

    But you ignore that part, why?  Because it doesn't fit in with your "Chinese are building lots of coal-fired plants"?

    That's why.

    I had just written:

    "but they are now making solar systems for the home market,"

    Thanks for making my point, and I will continue to accept yours that they will want to dabble in "green" for certain parts of China

    And we do have this.

    While the United States is still debating whether to build a more efficient kind of coal-fired power plant that uses extremely hot steam, China has begun building such plants at a rate of one a month.

    New York Times article

    Is the NY Times credible?

    ;-)

    Gracious is as gracious does.


    Parent

    You still haven't (none / 0) (#68)
    by Raymond Bell on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:52:04 PM EST
    explained how the Chinese expanding use of solar power fits in with your NYT article:

    China is making other efforts to reduce its global warming emissions. It has doubled its total wind energy capacity in each of the past four years, and is poised to pass the United States as soon as this year as the world's largest market for wind power equipment. China is building considerably more nuclear power plants than the rest of the world combined, and these do not emit carbon dioxide after they are built.

    From your NYT link.

    Goodness gracious indeed.

    Parent

    Start at the top and read. (none / 0) (#73)
    by jimakaPPJ on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 10:14:03 AM EST
    And since you think China has the answer, do you also agree with this??

    China is building considerably more nuclear power plants than the rest of the world combined, and these do not emit carbon dioxide after they are built.


    Parent
    You can't seem to deal (none / 0) (#79)
    by Raymond Bell on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 03:55:36 PM EST
    with the fact that China leads the US in wind and solar power while they're building new 'clean coal' plants at the same time.

    Thanks for your concern about my ability to read, BTW.

    Parent

    Your welcome, DA (none / 0) (#81)
    by jimakaPPJ on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 04:04:30 PM EST
    I am here to serve.

    Parent
    Serve BS? (none / 0) (#82)
    by Raymond Bell on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 04:12:47 PM EST
    You seem to do that everyday here, Mr. James.

    Parent
    I don't think you know what Peak Oil (none / 0) (#46)
    by observed on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 10:11:10 AM EST
    means. Sure, there's lots of potential energy tried in other fossil fuel reserves, but that is not going to be sold at $50/bbl.
    You know, there's a lot more energy stored in the ocean thermal gradients, too---gosh, why can't we just use that?
    Not to mention that with AGW on the table, talk of increasing oil production that much is obscene.

    Parent
    I start with the understanding that (none / 0) (#50)
    by jimakaPPJ on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 10:24:22 AM EST
    man made global warming is not factual and that the current trend is cooling.

    I read somewhere that oil shale was feasible at around $50./barrel. Right now $65 would be wonderful.

    Parent

    Another textbook example of ... (5.00 / 1) (#70)
    by Yman on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 09:16:49 AM EST
    ... GIGO.

    Parent
    so you start from a position of (none / 0) (#59)
    by observed on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 01:47:49 PM EST
    ignorance. Good to know.


    Parent
    I wondered how long it would take someone (none / 0) (#65)
    by jimakaPPJ on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:14:48 PM EST
    from the Left to decide they couldn't win the debate so they would go for the personal attack/

    SOP

    ;-)

    Parent

    I think Ben Bernanke had the best (none / 0) (#17)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 05:06:39 PM EST
    idea for the supply sider out there.  It's time to start burning some houses.  Nothing like a large scale, without shelter, homelessness to create some demand.  Ben Bernanke always liked himself some Ayn Rand.

    Parent
    Deae God. (none / 0) (#19)
    by jeffinalabama on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 05:38:19 PM EST
    Bernanke the Nihilist. Time to call on the big lebowki to handle this. Wha was John Goodman's character in that film?


    Parent
    Walter (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 06:00:21 PM EST
    All together (5.00 / 2) (#20)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 05:39:08 PM EST
    now:
    Obama is just awesome. Things are so much better now than they were before even though unemployment is higher. We must not criticize Obama. He apparently is too fragile to handle it. We must all worship him as the New Messiah of the New Economy. It will be written on the overhead projectors for us to repeat indefinitely. So sayeth the fanboyz and they must be obeyed.

    nice straw man there (3.50 / 2) (#36)
    by sj on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 12:59:14 AM EST
    I'm actually surprised at you, Donald.  Should I be?

    Parent
    imo . . . . (4.33 / 6) (#37)
    by nycstray on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 01:05:36 AM EST
    no.


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    Y'know, it has not been pointed out (none / 0) (#35)
    by Towanda on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 11:00:27 PM EST
    that Palin, idiot that she is in many ways, was absolutely correct that Paul Revere was warning the British.

    In 1775, Boston was British, after all.

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    Payroll tax deductions will be (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by KeysDan on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 05:55:48 PM EST
    continued.  That should do it---less taxes and more risk for social security (although, the shortfall, as now, will be picked up by the general fund, but wait, what will that do to the primary goal of deficit reduction?}

    Not really ... (5.00 / 2) (#27)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 07:44:10 PM EST
    But Mr Obama has made himself extraordinarily vulnerable on the economy, and if he loses his job as a result he has only himself to blame.

    More likely his terrible policy on the economy, the bail out, and letting bankers and Wall Streeters go unpunished for all manner of crimes, is exactly what will get him re-elected.

    And that is much more disturbing.

    Use it for HAMP to make HAMP (5.00 / 1) (#40)
    by ruffian on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 05:29:27 AM EST
    actually effective. Add some employees to enforce the rules on lenders, and some to work closer with homeowners to work them through the process instead of leaving them at the mercy of the lenders who lose their paperwork and give them the runaround. Loosen up the eligibility rules so people don't have to already be on the verge of foreclosure before they can use HAMP. All those things can be done by Treasury right now.

    Nobody must disturb the symbiotic relationship (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by TJBuff on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 08:32:05 AM EST
    The only reason with this economy that Obama is doing as well as he does is because the Republicans are whackjobs.  The only reason the GOP isn't destroying itself is because Obama can't or won't do anything about the economy.

    Wrong (none / 0) (#41)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 07:17:46 AM EST


    FANNIE and FREDDIE to goose housing (none / 0) (#69)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 08:57:24 AM EST
    .

    That is a large part of what created the housing bubble in the first place.  Doing so again is drool on your shirt crazy.

    .

    Except that both entities (none / 0) (#71)
    by Raymond Bell on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 09:50:11 AM EST
    mentioned didn't encourage the rise of NINJA morgages, or the failure by the rating agencies to call foul on the CDOs issued by the banks and other entities in the private sector.

    Check Dean Baker on the subject:

    They(Fannie and Freddie-ed) deserve blame for failing to recognise and respond to the bubble. Housing is their only business and if they had understood the housing market, they would not be in conservatorship today.

    However, the worse junk mortgages were not bought and securitised by Fannie and Freddie. These were packaged and sold by the investment banks, Goldman Sachs, Lehman, Citigroup and the rest. Fannie and Freddie got into junk mortgages late in the game, and even then, their primary motive was to regain lost market share. It had little to do with a desire to promote homeownership among moderate income households.

    Let's demolish this poor housing policy

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    FANNIE and FREDDIE (none / 0) (#74)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 10:59:58 AM EST
    .

    Fan and Fred CREATED the market for mortgage backed securities (MBS) containing ultra-risky mortgages.  They pulled the cork from the bottle, opened the barn door, and lit the match in the gunpowder factory.  It is true that private banks followed the lead of Fan and Fred.  But Fan and Fred were the leaders.

    As Maxine Waters said:

    Under the outstanding leadership of Mr. Frank Raines, everything in the 1992 Act, has worked just fine.  In fact, the GSE's have exceeded their housing goals.  What we need to do today is to focus on the regulator.  And this must be done in a the manner so as not to impede the affordable housing mission.  A mission that has seen innovation flourish, from desktop underwriting to 100 per cent loans.

    The 100 percent loan is a no money down loan, and desktop underwriting is another name for "liar loans."  These "innovations" was affordable housing policy.

    But more than that, there was indeed focus on the regulators.  It was the regulators, not the rating agencies, that treated the junk MBS on the banks balance sheets as being as good gold, when they would never treat a mortgage with no money down and no proof of employment as being a sound asset.

    .

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    shhhh, You'll wake the children ;-) (none / 0) (#75)
    by jimakaPPJ on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 11:33:00 AM EST
    If by "children" you mean ... (5.00 / 1) (#77)
    by Yman on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 01:34:52 PM EST
    ... people who actually know what they're talking about and back up their claims with facts and data, then yes, by all means.

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    "Lit the match" - heh (none / 0) (#76)
    by Yman on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 01:33:22 PM EST
    Just as silly as John McCain made the claim in 2008.

    Fan and Fred CREATED the market for mortgage backed securities (MBS) containing ultra-risky mortgages.  They pulled the cork from the bottle, opened the barn door, and lit the match in the gunpowder factory.  It is true that private banks followed the lead of Fan and Fred.  But Fan and Fred were the leaders.
    - Economist Dean Baker

    Fannie and Freddie got into subprime junk and helped fuel the housing bubble, but they were trailing the irrational exuberance of the private sector. They lost market share in the years 2002-2007, as the volume of private issue mortgage backed securities exploded. In short, while Fannie and Freddie were completely irresponsible in their lending practices, the claim that they were responsible for the financial disaster is absurd on its face -- kind of like the claim that the earth is flat.

    Fannie Mae lost significant market share during 2002-2007 because, while the private lenders were leading a massive growth in the subprime market from (from $65 billion in 1995 originations to $332 billion in 2003), Fannie Mae did not participate in large amounts of these mortgages.

    There was a culture of stupid, reckless lending, of which Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the subprime lenders were an integral part. But the dumb lending virus originated in Greenwich, Ct., midtown Manhattan, and Southern California, not Eastchester, Brownsville, and Washington. Investment banks created a demand for subprime loans because they saw it as a new asset class that they could dominate. They made subprime loans for the same reason they made other loans: They could get paid for making the loans, for turning them into securities, and for trading them --frequently using borrowed capital.

    Link

    IOW - Fannie and Freddie did much wrong leading up to the crisis, but re: the subprime mortgages, they did not "light the match".  They were following the private mortgage market.

    Parent

    Hello? (none / 0) (#78)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 02:49:22 PM EST
    .

    They lost market share in the years 2002-2007, as the volume of private issue mortgage backed securities exploded.

    This is exactly what happens to every maker of a new market.  Fan and Fred were no different.  Ford saw its 100% share of the mass produced car market drop as new competition came on line.  Do you think congresswoman Waters was lying about Fan and Fred's "innovations?"

    BTW, private issue MBS never topped 60% market share in any year and exceeded 50% for only two years in that time period.   The fact remains that Fan and Fred issued the vast majority of MBS at roughly 80% of the total.  Wonder why Baker never manages to mention actual share, but uses vague terms such as "exploded" or "not large?"  A new entrant's market share is virtually certain to "explode" as a new entrant will always start with a share that starts near zero.  Any business with a 1% market share would call an increase to 5% an explosion in share.

    In any case a no money down loan with no proof of employment is just as risky in an MBS issued by Fan or Fred as it is in an MBS issued by a bank, or in an MBS issued by the king of the world.  And any of those MBS would have been given the stamp of approval by regulators and allowed to be held on bank balance sheets at a super favorable 60 to 1 capital reserve requirement.

    This is regulatory failure writ large.

    .

    Parent

    Hello (5.00 / 0) (#84)
    by Yman on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 04:42:11 PM EST
    The winger canard blaming the housing/mortgage crisis on Fannie and Freddie has been debunked again and again.

    But facts matter little to the dittoheads.

    Parent

    My takeaway from Krugman (5.00 / 0) (#85)
    by Raymond Bell on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 04:57:00 PM EST

    It's convenient to believe that somehow, this is all Barney Frank's fault; and so that belief will continue.



    Parent
    And minorities and the poor (5.00 / 1) (#86)
    by Yman on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 07:31:05 PM EST
    It's a two/three-fer!

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    There is evidence Freddie and Fannie (none / 0) (#83)
    by Raymond Bell on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 04:20:19 PM EST
    were playing catch-up with regards to the private banks and certainly didn't start the practice of subprime lending to homeowners:

    The subprime boom was led by investment banks and mortgage brokers, not by government-sponsored enterprises. Fannie and Freddie became unhinged in the middle of this decade when they tried to play catch-up. Their shareholders and managers pushed them to recover the securitization market share they had lost to unregulated investment banks getting absurd AAA ratings for packaging subprime dross. From 2005 to 2008, Fannie Mae purchased or guaranteed $270 billion in loans to risky borrowers -- triple the amount in all its earlier years combined.

    Cox, Greenspan, Snow Agree: Freddie Mac And Fannie Mae Did Not Cause The Financial Crisis

    Parent

    Right (none / 0) (#87)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 07:44:03 AM EST
    .

    Right.  Fan and Fred were playing catch up in a market they created and banking regulators were giving the stamp of approval.

    Fan and Fred lost a slice of market share to private banks, that were playing follow the leader. That is an interesting fact but not really relevant to the toxic assets issued by Fan and Fred and blessed by banking regulators.

    From 2005 to 2008, Fannie Mae purchased or guaranteed $270 billion in loans to risky borrowers -- triple the amount in all its earlier years combined.

    Now you are starting to see the light.  At one time ultra-risky mortgagers were not bundled into securities. The root of problem was bundling high risk mortgages into securities.  That innovation to use Congresswoman Waters word was the work of Fan and Fred, and a cornerstone of "affordable housing" policy that both political parties supported.  

    Once the market was created, it grew as the quote above indicates.  That growth was for both new entrants (banks) and the market creators (GSEs).  It grew so fast that apparently the GSEs dollar volume grew even with a market share dip.  The phrase, "lighting a match in a gunpowder factory" seems an appropriate analogy.

    .

    Parent

    The phrase (5.00 / 1) (#88)
    by Raymond Bell on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 08:13:07 AM EST
    The subprime boom was led by investment banks and mortgage brokers,

    Tells us that it wasn't Fannie and Freddie who started the subprime boom.

    At one time ultra-risky mortgagers were not bundled into securities. The root of problem was bundling high risk mortgages into securities.

    Which, again, Fannie and Freddie were playing catch-up with the private sector.

    That innovation to use Congresswoman Waters word was the work of Fan and Fred, and a cornerstone of "affordable housing" policy that both political parties supported.

    But, because you know what Congresswoman Waters said one time, you know more about it than the former SEC chairman or Alan Greenspan.

    Thanks for sharing.

    Parent

    Cart follows horse. (none / 0) (#89)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 09:59:51 AM EST

    The subprime boom was led by investment banks and mortgage brokers,

    Tells us that it wasn't Fannie and Freddie who started the subprime boom.

    A boom cannot exist in a market that has not been created in the first place.  Beside that, regardless of Greenspan's characterization there appears no bank (that I could find anyway) that had a larger share than the GSE's.  

    BTW, "lead the boom" is a vague term.  It can mean about anything you want it to mean depending on an arbitrary choice of start date.  

    Those MBS would not appear on FDIC ensured institution's balance sheets without the blessing of bank regulators.  Funny how Greenspan overlooks the Fed's role.  More than just allowing that junk, the stuff was given a super favorable 60 to 1 (!!!) reserve requirement.

    This mess is as clear a case of regulatory failure as can be imagined.

    Parent

    Freddie or Fannie (5.00 / 1) (#90)
    by Raymond Bell on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 12:50:37 PM EST
    or the regulators didn't hold a gun to the banks and mortgage company and make them accept NINJA loans because of the effort to make housing more affordable.

    A boom cannot exist in a market that has not been created in the first place.  Beside that, regardless of Greenspan's characterization there appears no bank (that I could find anyway) that had a larger share than the GSE's.

    I'm not here to hold your hand and tell you how to do research on the Internet, but I commend this program for you to listen to:

    Alex Blumberg: "From 2003 to 2006, the housing market was in a classic speculative bubble. Home loans were easy to get, so more and more people were buying houses. The increased demand for houses caused the price to increase. The rising prices created even more demand, as people started to look at homes as investments -- investments that never went down in value. In 2003 and 2004, 2005, they didn't. You could buy a house with no money down, turn around and sell it a year later for in some areas double what you paid. People who'd never invested in real estate before started buying multiple properties as investments. There were shows on TV about how to do it.

    Giant Pool of Money

    BTW, "lead the boom" is a vague term.  It can mean about anything you want it to mean depending on an arbitrary choice of start date.

    When you start nit-picking at the language, that becomes revelatory, we're talking economics, not paleontology, are we not?  

    Those MBS would not appear on FDIC ensured institution's balance sheets without the blessing of bank regulators.  Funny how Greenspan overlooks the Fed's role.  More than just allowing that junk, the stuff was given a super favorable 60 to 1 (!!!) reserve requirement.

    The markets didn't work as Greenspan thought they would, and there is Youtube of Greenspan admitting his theories and understanding of how things work.

    This pretty much summarizes Greenspan:

    If you look at the speeches he(Greenspan) gave just before he left the Fed, it's pretty much "After me - the Deluge. I'm getting out while my reputation's intact".

        Michael Hudson (9/17/07, BBC World Service "Quote of the Day")

    Wikiquote

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    All of that, and the facts remain (none / 0) (#91)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 01:23:49 PM EST
    .

    Fannie and Freddie created the market for subprime loans.  An "innovation" lauded by congresswoman Waters.  

    The banking regulators allowed MBS containing subprime loans to be held by banks on their balance sheets at a high risk 60 to 1 capital reserve ratio.  That is regulatory failure pure and simple.  

    There is no doubt that the "me too" behavior of the banks in following Fannie and Freddie's lead in buying and securitizing high risk mortgages contributed to the problem.  However, there is a difference between a contributor and an architect.

    .

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    Let's look at some facts (5.00 / 1) (#92)
    by Raymond Bell on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 01:40:25 PM EST
    There is no doubt that the "me too" behavior of the banks in following Fannie and Freddie's lead in buying and securitizing high risk mortgages contributed to the problem.  However, there is a difference between a contributor and an architect.

    Subprime lending offered high-cost loans to the weakest borrowers during the housing boom that lasted from 2001 to 2007. Subprime lending was at its height from 2004 to 2006.

    Federal Reserve Board data show that:

        More than 84 percent of the subprime mortgages in 2006 were issued by private lending institutions.

        Private firms made nearly 83 percent of the subprime loans to low- and moderate-income borrowers that year.

        Only one of the top 25 subprime lenders in 2006 was directly subject to the housing law that's being lambasted by conservative critics

    (snip)

    But these loans, and those to low- and moderate-income families represent a small portion of overall lending. And at the height of the housing boom in 2005 and 2006, Republicans and their party's standard bearer, President Bush, didn't criticize any sort of lending, frequently boasting that they were presiding over the highest-ever rates of U.S. homeownership.

    Between 2004 and 2006, when subprime lending was exploding, Fannie and Freddie went from holding a high of 48 percent of the subprime loans that were sold into the secondary market to holding about 24 percent, according to data from Inside Mortgage Finance, a specialty publication. One reason is that Fannie and Freddie were subject to tougher standards than many of the unregulated players in the private sector who weakened lending standards, most of whom have gone bankrupt or are now in deep trouble.

    Private sector loans, not Fannie or Freddie, triggered crisis

    Check out the "Too much money" program, you might even learn something.

    I know I did.

    Parent