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Can Monetary Policy Save The Economy?

Atrios writes:

This won't happen.

“There is one bet right now: Bernanke will bail out the world,” said Brian Kelly of Brian Kelly Capital. “If that does not happen, then no investment will be safe.”

Bernanke won't bail out the world. He might bail out certain extra large financial institutions, including foreign ones, and the people they employ at absurdly inflated salaries. He might bail out the investors in certain classes of financial assets. The rest of us, not so much.

Can Bernanke (read the Fed) actually "save the rest of us?" I think this misunderstands (not Atrios) the limits of monetary policy in a zero lower bound environment. More . . .

Remember that the Fed's most important power is its ability to influence interest rates. The Fed's interest rate is basically zero now. Here's how Krugman explained quantitative easing:

The Fed is [. . .] creating a new liability: the monetary base it creates to buy these bonds. In effect, it’s printing $1 trillion of money, and using those funds to buy bonds. Is this inflationary? We hope so! The whole reason for quantitative easing is that normal monetary expansion, printing money to buy short-term debt, has no traction thanks to near-zero rates. Gaining some traction — in effect, having some inflationary effect — is what the policy is all about.

But quantitative easing simply is not an effective tool in this zero bound environment, with aggregate demand dead in the water. Indeed, Krugman himself has said that for quantitative easing would require 8 trillion dollars in purchasing. And even that, said Joe Stiglitz, is a fools errand. The problem is not that credit is not available at the highest levels, it is that the credit is not getting to the economy. Indeed, he argues that QE2 basically decoupled the financial market from the rest of the economy:

Joe Stiglitz and Joe Gagnon Debate QEII from Roosevelt Institute on Vimeo.

The issue remains quantitative easing, at least at the levels that it can be done, simply has no discernible effect on aggregate demand. The answer lies in fiscal policy, not monetary policy.

Hence, Matt Yglesias just gets it wrong, imo. when he writes:

[P]art of what we’re seeing here are the policy consequences of the progressive movement’s strange monetary policy blindness. For the Fed to do anything “unorthodox” naturally opens the institution up to criticism. And if nearly 100 percent of the criticism is either from the hard money right or else is vague condemnations of “bailouts,” then this biases policy toward inaction. People need to understand that in economic policy terms, the Fed’s monetary policy committee is the single most important institution in the country. It’s not the only thing that matters, but it matters a lot. Talking about jobs without talking about the FOMC is like talking about the legal system and forgetting there’s a Supreme Court.

Obviously the Fed is extremely important. But the current Fed is doing all it can do or will do. To expect that more could or would be done is beyond the bounds of political realism. Indeed, it is an inefficient focus. The only policies worth discussing at this time are those involving fiscal stimulus.

Now Yglesias would no doubt respond that that is not politically realistic. He's probably right but it is the place where the solution lies, not the Fed's monetary policy.

Speaking for me only

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  • Display: Sort:
    The solution (5.00 / 0) (#4)
    by Warren Terrer on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 12:07:17 PM EST
    has to be fiscal policy, i.e. government spending. All that quantitative easing has done is swap one asset class, treasuries, for a somewhat more liquid asset class, reserves, in the mistaken belief that more reserves automatically causes more lending and gets money circulating back into the economy.

    Banks lend when they find credit worthy customers, according to their prevailing credit standards, not because they have tons of excess reserves. In today's economy credit standards are tight and credit worthy customers wishing to borrow are scarce. No amount of QE can ever force banks to lend. Currently banks are sitting on record reserves not seen since the great depression.

    Bernanke can bail out failing financial institutions. He can keep them from collapsing, but he can't force them to lend and get the economy going again. Only fiscal policy, i.e. spending by the federal government can stimulate aggregate demand, which will in turn lead to banks lending once again and the economy recovering. Yes Yglesias gets it wrong (but he gets so much wrong that I am not the lest bit surprised). The single most important institution in the country right now is the US Treasury.

    But the Obama admin has completely abandoned fiscal stimulus and we are now feeling the effects as the economy slides (plunges?) into a double dip recession. Obama's recent rhetoric says that he now believes in deficit reduction as his overriding economic concern. This is wrong-headed and will doom the country to a repeat of 1937.

    The Fed could however (none / 0) (#1)
    by TJBuff on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 10:24:43 AM EST
    target a QE3 to smaller banks.  The ones that would actually lend to Main Street.

    and what would main st do (none / 0) (#2)
    by NYShooter on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 11:22:24 AM EST
    without any customers and disposable income?

    Parent
    Lend to small businesses (none / 0) (#3)
    by TJBuff on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 11:43:06 AM EST
    Get some local jobs going and generate some demand.

    Parent
    You've got it backwards (5.00 / 2) (#5)
    by NYShooter on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 12:27:02 PM EST
    what prudent businessman, of any size, would take on debt when no customers are coming into his business, nor does he see them coming in tomorrow?

    the money has to go into the consumer's pockets, not the businessmen's.

    Parent

    Yep - it is not an advertising problem (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by ruffian on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 02:33:58 PM EST
    It is a disposable income problem.

    Parent
    Just the opposite works for Canada (none / 0) (#6)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 01:13:19 PM EST
    As the government cut its spending on programs from 14.9 percent of GDP in fiscal year 1996 to 12.1 percent in fiscal year 2000, more resources were available for people to use productively in the private sector. From 1997 to 2000, when government spending as a percent of GDP fell, Canada's economy experienced a high rate of real growth of between four and five percent per year.


    You mean that decadent commie (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by NYShooter on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 04:37:50 PM EST
    socialist free loader country/ THAT Canada?

    And just imagine what they would be able to do if their government didn't provide health care to EVERYONE?

    They can have it, I tell ya. I hear they have to wait as much as TWO WEEKS to get their botox shots.

    Parent

    Care to cite your source? (none / 0) (#7)
    by Dadler on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 01:38:07 PM EST
    Just, ahem, curious.

    Parent
    This notion (none / 0) (#9)
    by Warren Terrer on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 03:10:30 PM EST
    has long been debunked. Canada experienced growth during that time period in spite of fiscal contraction because it was running a large trade surplus which outweighed the fiscal contraction. The US is running a large trade deficit and won't be running a trade surplus any time soon. Consequently fiscal contraction is and will be contractionary for the US economy as a whole.

    In addition the idea that reducing government spending leaves more resources available for the rest of the economy is the 'loanable funds' theory of government spending and it's false.

    Parent

    Hardly debunked (none / 0) (#12)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Fri Jun 03, 2011 at 09:39:07 PM EST
    Goods and services consumed by the government are no longer available to the export market.  Likewise reduced government consumtion makes more goods and services available for export.

    A natural consequence is not a debunking.

    Parent

    If you never talk about the fiscal (none / 0) (#11)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 07:32:46 PM EST
    policy that must be voted in and used in order to heal us, then you can't ever sell it, and if you never sell how can you finally get it voted in as the next contraction creeps up on us?  Look at the bailouts they got voted in during the last emergency.  Let us at least have an informed emergency next time.

    Inform the people, teach them the facts so that they can see through the rhetoric.  It isn't easy, but I've been doing this P90X thing for about 45 days now and I have no patience for people who tell me that it is just too hard when in the end you have no other choice.  Bunch of wussies who want someone else to do the hard work.  Or maybe I'm just living in my imagination like P90Xer Paul Ryan does.