What If Ron Paul Wins Iowa?
A lot of scenarios have been conjured up for how Mitt Romney loses the GOP nomination. Too many of them have been based on swings in national polls of GOP voters. If we have learned nothing, I hope we have learned that national polls are virtually meaningless in presidential primaries and results in Iowa and New Hampshire, because they are first in the nation, have outsized importance (corn ethanol in your gasoline did not happen by accident.)
With these central political horserace handicapping tenets in mind, whenever I see a writeup about swings in the GOP presidential race, my first question is always "what does it mean in Iowa?" My second question is "What does it mean in New Hampshire?" So now the news is Newt Gingrich is "surging" and my questions remain the same. Bloomberg has an Ann Selzer poll answering the question for Iowa:
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