Tim Tebow And The Illusion Of Validity

As a diehard Florida Gator fan, I am rooting for Tim Tebow to succeed as an NFL quarterback but my expectation is he will fail. I do not think he has, or will have, the passing skills necessary to be a good NFL QB. That said, who really knows? Merrill Hoge? Trent Dilfer? Really? This morning I listened to Dilfer say that Tebow's problems are "quantum mechanics." I kid you not. That is what he said. It is not inspiring of confidence. Yet, I think we should all be wary of "the illusion of validity." I had a great day picking games Saturday. It was a fluke. But the "illusion of validity" creeps in to my psyche. What is the "illusion of validity?" Via Kevin Drum, Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman explains (and, yes beware of the "illusion of validity" here too):

I thought that what was happening to us was remarkable. The statistical evidence of our failure should have shaken our confidence in our judgments of particular candidates, but it did not. It should also have caused us to moderate our predictions, but it did not. We knew as a general fact that our predictions were little better than random guesses, but we continued to feel and act as if each particular prediction was valid. I was reminded of visual illusions, which remain compelling even when you know that what you see is false. I was so struck by the analogy that I coined a term for our experience: the illusion of validity.

More . . .

Do you think that "experts" on Tim Tebow, or any subject for that matter, let the fact that their analysis has been proven wrong in the past shake their confidence now? Notice any self doubt in, say, Tom Friedman? Me neither. Kahneman writes:

I coined the term “illusion of validity” because the confidence we had in judgments about individual soldiers was not affected by a statistical fact we knew to be true — that our predictions were unrelated to the truth. This is not an isolated observation. When a compelling impression of a particular event clashes with general knowledge, the impression commonly prevails. And this goes for you, too. The confidence you will experience in your future judgments will not be diminished by what you just read, even if you believe every word.

This is the concept of "confirmation bias." We look for "facts" that confirm our own analysis. That said sometimes we are right. Like I was on the housing crisis and Tim Geithner.

Speaking for me only

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    "Like I was (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by NYShooter on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 12:19:50 PM EST
     on the housing crisis and Tim Geithner."

    and a few of us on the Candidate (now the President.)

    Maybe by "quantum mechanics" (none / 0) (#13)
    by jondee on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:04:29 PM EST
    Dilfer was trying to say that Tebow's a "God doesn't play dice" guy, and Dilfer's an Uncertainty Principal guy..

    But probably not.


    I have no use for Fla or the SEC (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by BobTinKY on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:05:57 PM EST
    as a fan but Tebow will succeed as a pro.  He's a gamer.  In terms of earnings and playing time, Flutie had a successful career.  I expect more from Tebow.

    As a Pats fan I was happy to see Tebow on the bench.

    I like Tebow. (5.00 / 1) (#75)
    by Gerald USN Ret on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 03:09:49 PM EST
    I see what the skeptics are talking about, but again what do they know?
    They have history to go by and many times that history doesn't apply.

    I remember seeing pictures of Bobby Layne that my coach showed us.  Essentially that you didn't have to throw a perfect ball to be a leader and a winner as a quarterback.

    I saw the pictures of Paul Hornung.  He seemed clumsy, slow but very effective.

    Why did coach show those videos.  It was because I was a big guy and understood and saw the field and where people were and was quick -in the mind at least, but I could appear clumsy moving about at times.

    Tebow is like that, but I would compare him to Hornung or Layne rather than myself.  I never was in that league.

    I remember also more recently a little quarter back from Boston College.  A tiny guy (as NFL quarterbacks go) , who made a living as a quarterback in the CFL and the NFL for quite a while.  Doug Flutie was drafted #285 the highest (high not being good) draft number ever for a Heisman winner.  In the proverbial vernacular: "Who would have thunk it?"  Now days Doug is in a band.  Always up to something!  He's that kind of guy.

    I think Tebow will make a living in pro ball.  The question is at what position.  That remains to be seen.

    He has already made enough (none / 0) (#76)
    by CoralGables on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 03:29:35 PM EST
    with the contract in hand, to have made a living to cover the rest of his life. And from what I gather by what he drives, enough left over to cover a bunch of other lives too.

    Win or lose, if nothing else... (5.00 / 1) (#84)
    by magster on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 04:17:49 PM EST
    Tebow is fun to watch.  These last 2 1/2 seasons as a Broncos' fan with Orton as QB have been as demoralizing as watching the Obama during the health care debate.

    What they said about (5.00 / 1) (#95)
    by jeffinalabama on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 07:04:48 PM EST
    Bobby Layne... "He can't throw, he can't run, he can't hand off. All he can do is win."

    Leadership means something at his level. Like him or hate him, he leads well.

    Amen brother! A leader will find a way to win. (5.00 / 1) (#96)
    by Gerald USN Ret on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 07:34:37 PM EST
    Sometimes late in the game, when things were close, coach would have me play defense against a passing offense that was marching up the field against us.  
    I played a roving linebacker/halfback when the opposing quarterback was a thrower and they needed the pass.  I wasn't as fast as the backs but I was quick as a wink and as a high school wrestler had the ability to find the guard or tackle's off center point so I could brush by them.  Usually their arm would only slow me.  (Got some holding penalties too.) Their quarterback had to get rid of the ball or outrun me (which could easily happen.)  Then the best part of the game for me came about.  I would have a tête-à-tête with their quarterback.  That was football!

    "He does have great intangibles, (none / 0) (#1)
    by oculus on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 12:15:26 PM EST
    that's what I know," sd. Denver head coach Fox.  

    He reminds me (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 12:53:01 PM EST
    of Joe Kapp... who was not known for his perfect passes but was a winner.

    Everybody knows some of my passes flutter. I throw a few ducks. One reason is that I don't bother using the laces. Some sportswriters have theorized that this is because I learned to pass by heaving lettuce heads in Salinas, and there are no laces on lettuce. The truth is that the laces vary from ball to ball and this can throw you off. I just grab the seed and fling, and sometimes I even complete a few. Then I'll pick up the papers after the game and find out that I passed without finesse.


    And I confess to being a fan except when he was putting a hurting on the Vols.


    Granted it's a small sample... (none / 0) (#22)
    by kdog on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:31:47 PM EST
    but Kapp completed 55% of his passes at a time when it was much more difficult to pass.  Tebow is at 48%.

    Tis true it doesn't matter if it is a tight spiral or a wobbly duck, but the pass must be on time and accurate.  Tebow is no Joe Kapp.  

    Sh*t, Tebow is no Kyle Orton...but he might be a decent third down running back/Wildcat QB.


    Orton is terrible (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:34:13 PM EST
    Of all the strange aspects of this Tebow Saga in Denver, none is stranger to me than the elevation of Kyle Orton.

    Tebow is probably going to fail as a NFL QB. Orton is a failed NFL QB.


    Orton ain't that bad... (none / 0) (#35)
    by kdog on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:45:39 PM EST
    he has shown he can win with a solid unit around him.  He never regularly hit his receivers in the shoelaces.



    When did he show that? (none / 0) (#42)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:49:51 PM EST
    One thing that I give Tebow, he is a big moment player - always has been.

    Orton never has been. A failed NFL QB. He is that bad.


    21-12 as Bears starter... (none / 0) (#51)
    by kdog on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:03:13 PM EST
    Kyle was...that ain't too shabby.

    Tebow is a great football player, he's just not a NFL QB, and I don't think he ever will be.


    Rex Grossman had a bertter record (none / 0) (#53)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:04:38 PM EST
    did he prove it too?

    Ya got me there... (none / 0) (#59)
    by kdog on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:15:15 PM EST
    are you allowed to speak ill of a fellow Gator like that? I can't believe that guy played in a SB!

    Then again Orton is less prone to throwing picks than Grossman, I'd take Orton over both former Gators, over Danny Wuerfell and Shane Matthews to boot.  


    I'd take all of them over Orton (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:17:26 PM EST
    The guy crumbles in big spots.

    Sanchez is twice the QB Orton is precisely because he plays pretty well in big moments.

    A QB who gacks in crunch time is useless.

    That is Orton.


    Three 4 Qtr... (none / 0) (#68)
    by kdog on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:33:33 PM EST
    comeback wins in 2009 with Denver, and one of those over the mighty Pats.  Dude outdueled Tom Bieber.

    Really? (none / 0) (#69)
    by Ed on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:37:31 PM EST
    Is this some kind of performance art on your part to drive home Kahneman's point that
    The confidence you will experience in your future judgments will not be diminished by what you just read, even if you believe every word.

    Really? (none / 0) (#72)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:41:38 PM EST
    I thought my judgment was based on watching Orton for the past 5 seasons.

    Your judgement... (none / 0) (#100)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 09:27:49 PM EST
    is suspect.  After all, you are a Gators fan.

    Brady Quinn is a failed QB.  JaMarcus Russell is a failed QB.  Ryan Leaf is a failed QB.  [Insert former FL QB] is a failed QB.  

    With no running game and a turrible, turrible defense, the Donkey's would have been 0-16 without Neckbeard last year.  He's not a failed QB.


    Danny Wuerfell (none / 0) (#105)
    by Amiss on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 12:58:12 AM EST
    sells insurance now, too. Not sure what it is about Tebow, but he gives me faith, just as I believe he "may" give the team; as with that turn-around Saturday. Who knows, we do know that eventually he will join his parents as a missionary tho, when is the question.

    having now had (none / 0) (#81)
    by cpinva on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 04:09:54 PM EST
    the opportunity to watch grossman up close and personal for 4 straight games, i can only conclude that he must have had a stellar supporting cast in chicago, to make up for his delusions of mediocrity. it's one thing to be slow-footed, but make up for it as a great passer/reader of defenses. it's quite another to be both slow-footed, a second-rate passer, and totally incapable of reading a defense.

    with any luck, beck will be at least a modest improvement (he's already shown he can run), and maybe the redskins will finally draft a decent QB for the future in the 2012 draft.

    tebow will fail in the NFL as a QB. possibly, he might work out as a half decent TE.


    Dog (none / 0) (#56)
    by jondee on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:11:24 PM EST
    what do you think of Bill's "complete wash out" Aaron Maybin? I think he already has almost as many sacks with the Jets as the Bill's entire D has.

    The don't know whether to laugh or cry when I think about how Maybin was pummeled and punked by the Buffalo media. I hope the guy becomes a star. It'll just prove my point about how defensively clueless the Bills are when it comes to developing players and putting a unit together; especially when contrasted with guys like the Ryan brothers.


    3 sacks, 3 forced fumbles... (none / 0) (#64)
    by kdog on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:20:34 PM EST
    in 4 games...and he should keep getting time with Bryan Thomas out.  Mikey likes it!

    You're developing Fitzy pretty well on the other side of the ball...love that kid.


    Fitz has kind of a weak arm (none / 0) (#106)
    by jondee on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 11:29:19 AM EST
    I'm sorry to say. He has to wind up like Willie Mays throwin' the ball to the plate from deep center to throw the ball the ball thirty yards. But he's smart, a good team leader, and nimble on his feet, which counts for something.

    Jackson is man the man on the Bill's O. A very canny, sees-the-the-entire-field and uses-his-blockers type of runner. He reminds me alot of Marcus Allen.

    And the Bills coaching staff still needs to all go to Buddy Ryan's Summer Camp for Defensive Coordinators, if there is one. The fact that they didn't have the first clue of how to utilize Maybin's gifts is just further proof.


    Really? (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:34:43 PM EST
    That's quite a judgement you put on the guy after one game as a starter.

    It is early... (none / 0) (#29)
    by kdog on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:37:14 PM EST
    to judge, point taken...I just don't see Tebow discovering pass accuracy...I predict many short hops.

    In baseball that's called "small ball." (none / 0) (#57)
    by oculus on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:13:00 PM EST
    we had a Tebow in Pittsburgh (none / 0) (#79)
    by smott on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 03:42:42 PM EST
    Name of Kordell Stewart.

    Man what an athlete, could run like crazy, strong arm.

    Crappy mechanics and couldn't hit the broad side of a barn.

    Usable as a wilcat qb or occl WR.


    What do Tebow's receivers (none / 0) (#89)
    by NYShooter on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 04:40:36 PM EST
    think of him?

    I don't know. it just looked to me like they dogged it on a few catchable throws.


    Hard to say (none / 0) (#91)
    by rdandrea on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 04:49:27 PM EST
    They just traded the best one he would have had for a fifth (or sixth) round draft choice.  A couple of the others (Royal, Thomas) have been hurt most of the season.

    Not to take anything (none / 0) (#92)
    by NYShooter on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 05:20:54 PM EST
    away from Terry Bradshaw, but I wonder what we'd be saying about Tebow if he had Stallworth & Swan downfield?

    Per USA Today, Tebow wasn't (none / 0) (#24)
    by oculus on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:34:33 PM EST
    sacked yesterday.  Isn't that worth something?  Anything?

    Per the box score (none / 0) (#31)
    by rdandrea on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:38:23 PM EST
    To say (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by CoralGables on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:49:02 PM EST
    the Denver offensive line was offensively porous would be an understatement.

    Hmmm. Have to confess I have no (none / 0) (#39)
    by oculus on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:48:21 PM EST
    experience reading football box scores.  No interceptions.  

    Tebow was terrible yesterday (5.00 / 1) (#44)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:51:52 PM EST
    One positive aspect that is being overlooked is precisely that - despite being terrible Tebow had it within him to make big plays at the end.

    This is an important quality in a NFL QB.

    Orton, for example, would never have been able to overcome 3 quarters of bad play with a good 4th quarter.  


    Tebow couldn't think of a worse 55 mins. (5.00 / 1) (#47)
    by oculus on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:55:23 PM EST
    But didn't he profusely apologize for one of his games w/FL?

    He did (5.00 / 1) (#49)
    by CoralGables on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:59:32 PM EST
    and then went on to lead his team to the National Championship. But at that time he was apologizing for failure to lead a team to victory, not for playing poorly.

    One of the worst teams in the league... (none / 0) (#52)
    by kdog on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:04:14 PM EST
    playing prevent defense will make any QB look good.

    Orton would have failed (none / 0) (#60)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:15:46 PM EST
    if Unitas can come out (none / 0) (#61)
    by jondee on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:16:01 PM EST
    of sandlot ball and Kurt Warner out of the Arena League, Tebow certainly has a shot.

    How about Derek Holland? Didn't (none / 0) (#78)
    by oculus on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 03:35:35 PM EST
    play baseball when he first started college in Missouri.  Burned out.  Where did this guy come from?

    Holland is a Grade B+ prospect at a minimum right now and perhaps an A-. If he stays healthy, he could be an excellent pitcher.

    No, he doesn't. (none / 0) (#102)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 10:28:02 PM EST
    Unitas (the GOAT) and Warner could throw a spiral and actually hit who they were aiming for.  They could both take the snap from under center and read a defense.  Tebow cannot do any of those things.  

    BTW, Johnny U. played four years for Louisville--not only QB, but safety/linebacker and returned punts and kick-offs as well.  He was a 9th round pick of the Steelers who got cut and went to work in construction to support his family.  His semi-pro days were more a weekend hobby than anything.  So, he really didn't "come out of sandlot ball".    

    /Baltimore Colt fan'd



    Thank you! (none / 0) (#104)
    by ks on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 10:45:02 PM EST
    Putting the Tebow nonsense aside, Johnny Unitas was ridiculous.  It's because we live in the ESPN age we don't properly remember him as the probable GOAT!  

    I'm sorry... (none / 0) (#101)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 09:40:32 PM EST
    I was under the impression that football was a team game.  Did Tebow catch those awful, sad, wobbly, wounded ducks that he "threw"?  Did he make the block that allowed him to get the 2 point conversion (after he misread the defense)?  Did he make the strip sack and fumble recovery in OT?  Did he kick the 52 yard field goal to win the game?  Those were the "big plays".

    The Bronco's won despite Tebow (much to Elway's dismay).  If we weren't sucking for Luck and started Neckbeard instead of The One, the game would have been over by halftime.    


    Right, no interceptions (5.00 / 1) (#74)
    by rdandrea on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 03:03:49 PM EST
    But only because Miami dropped one in the first quarter.

    Tebow was just flat awful for 57 minutes yesterday.  If he had been just average, he wouldn't have needed the heroics in the last three minutes.

    I think he'll do better with a few games under his belt.  The lockout probably hurt him worse than many other players.  New offense, new zone blocking scheme, no coaching.

    Don't expect much next week.  McGahee took up a lot of the slack in the pitiful Denver offense, but he broke his hand and won't play next week.


    Funny, The Great Intangible (none / 0) (#2)
    by ruffian on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 12:17:40 PM EST
    is my name for god too!

    Here's more from USA Today. (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by oculus on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 12:22:10 PM EST
    Love it.

    "He definitely has that swag about him," Broncos tight end Daniel Fells said.

    Wide receiver Demaryius Thomas said of the second-year passer: "He's got heart and a lot of faith. If we stayed with him, we knew it would be good."

    Does the Tebow eye black include (none / 0) (#9)
    by oculus on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 12:52:08 PM EST
    biblical cites now?

    The NFL (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by CoralGables on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:16:30 PM EST
    banned that long before Tebow arrived on the scene. The NCAA rule followed Tebow's departure.

    You were (none / 0) (#3)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 12:18:39 PM EST
    right about Geither and those of us who were never much in love with Obama have pretty much had our worst nightmares come true with him. All this is really neither here nor there when you get down to it.

    I keeping thinking "what exactly is the solution to this mess? Obama certainly has shown he hasn't got a clue as to how to solve the economic mess the country is in and the GOP wants to return to what the Bush administration did that created the disaster. I see no solution right now.

    Oh, Obama, has a clue (5.00 / 1) (#93)
    by NYShooter on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 05:26:00 PM EST
    Dozens of Nobel economists have drowned him in clues. That he professes "willful ignorance," like Condi's "who could have known?" is Obama still campaigning, not Leading.

    Fire Sparano & staff (none / 0) (#6)
    by Dadler on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 12:46:30 PM EST
    Their defensive call on that 2-point conversion was really inexcusable.  Granted, Tebow is a wild card at that point, but still, that he waltzed in UP THE MIDDLE UNTOUCHED, come on, that's just pitiful.

    Fun to watch tho (none / 0) (#7)
    by Dadler on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 12:47:42 PM EST
    Director couldn't resist the shot of Tebow taking a knee to thank the Lord for concerning himself with football as much as waterboarding.

    Does it bother you that (none / 0) (#11)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 12:54:17 PM EST
    he is an avowed Christian?

    I couldn't care less (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Dadler on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:22:48 PM EST
    I'm just a guy who can't stand jocks thanking any higher power for their play in a game.  It's offensive and laughably shallow, IMO, but it's a free country, they ain't hurting anyone, they can have a church service on the field for all I care, the NFL is a private org, after all, they can do as they please.

    it could be one (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by jondee on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:29:45 PM EST
    of those no-atheists-in-a-foxhole things..it is an effing brutal, potentially permanently-life-changing sport..

    If some kid raised by his Grandma in Louisiana feels safer out there pointing to the heavans once in awhile, who are we to judge?


    Meet the heathens in the middle... (none / 0) (#26)
    by kdog on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:34:58 PM EST
    just spare me the post-game prayer circle.

    I'll be attending Bills @ Jets in 2 weeks, surprisingly a huge game!


    You know what I hate? The Yankees (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by oculus on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:50:05 PM EST
    celebrating on the mound at the Q.  

    Jesus said not to (none / 0) (#27)
    by Dadler on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:36:14 PM EST

    Your point is perfectly legit, that's why I say I have no desire to stop anyone from doing anything.

    I just can't stand it, and will say so every once in awhile.  I'm the same guy, after all, who recently stepped out of the auditorium quickly during middle school parents night, when the principal had us all stand to say the Pledge of Allegiance.  



    And your objection to the pledge is??? (none / 0) (#32)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:39:39 PM EST
    My own personal oddity (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by Dadler on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:44:55 PM EST
    I have a thing against standing in front of inanimate objects and pledging anything to them.  

    Also, I don't consider myself to be living under the dominion of any God, much less that our nation is one under said God.  I find that to be in opposition to the US Constitution, actually.

    I'm a heathen, my man.  And proud.  ;-)  


    what does it mean (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by CST on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:46:50 PM EST
    to pledge alliegence to a flag anyway?

    But "one nation under god" is bull.

    Not to mention "liberty and justice for all" is too ironic for words these days.

    It just feels like you are uttering a bunch of meeningless mumbo jumbo so that you can appear patriotic.  I love my country, but that doesn't mean I want to listen to a room full of people lie about it.


    Me too! (none / 0) (#40)
    by Lena on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:48:53 PM EST
    I hate the social pressure to stand for everything patriotic. Every once in a while I've indulged my right to sit during the pledge or the national anthem, but I always worry that I'll be beaten to a pulp by a rabid rightwing Republican in the process....and I imagine the subsequent Fox TV call-in-show (host: Bill O'Reilly) featuring the running crawler, Anthem attack: Justified or no?

    I've told my story here already of my (5.00 / 1) (#67)
    by brodie on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:29:49 PM EST
    act of rebellion inthe  sixties as as tenth grader in failing to stand for the POA.

    These days as an adult with some of the same reservations about these socially-forced artificial displays of phony patriotism, I'd try a more subtle approach:  I would recite the pledge using the original manner of right arm extended, palm up.  

    If anyone asks questions just say you're a traditionalist and originalist, and if it was good enough for Judy Garland and George Murphy it's good enough for me.


    I recently heard the Mariinsky Orchestra (none / 0) (#45)
    by oculus on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:52:03 PM EST
    play two concerts in Orange Co.  No flags of either nation or the State of CA on the stage.  And no national anthems, which used to be common when Soviet Union arts orgs. toured to U.S. during the cold war.  

    ...and I say (none / 0) (#54)
    by Lena on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:06:22 PM EST
    amen for that!!

    (irony intentional).

    I have several German relatives, and when they were teenagers and consequently somewhat overwrought and dramatic, as teenagers can be, they used to respond that they were "citizens of the world" when people asked where they came from... I thought it was a little over the top, but I appreciate the idea that you don't have to rub other people's noses (or your own) in the patriotic trappings of your own country.


    On the flip side (none / 0) (#55)
    by jbindc on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:11:20 PM EST
    There is a thing called "respect".  Just as you would (or should) stand for another country's national anthem, it is a sign of respect to stand, even if you don't feel the need to participate.  Of course, you have the right not to, but it seems like you get so little value in return for such an act as not standing up, and a whole lot more grief than you should get.

    It just comes off looking like a child who folds their arms acorss their chest and says, "Hmmph.  You can't make me, so there!"


    I disagree (none / 0) (#77)
    by Lena on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 03:33:50 PM EST
    that people who stand for the pledge or national anthem have more respect for, say, the bill of rights, than I do.

    I also dislike the social coercion that the majority can, and do, exercise over the minority.

    Someone downthread mentioned "phony patriotism," and for the life of me, many of those standing seem like phonies to me.

    If that is "childish," so be it (though I hope that my own child absorbs the idea that symbols are not something that we worship in our family!)


    It's more (5.00 / 1) (#80)
    by jbindc on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 03:49:36 PM EST
    respect for the symbol and what it stands for - including the people who died to give you the right to not participate. It's not a "worship"

    Again - it's the same as you sitting down during the playing of the Canadian national anthem at a sporting event.

    Sometimes respect is just a matter of good manners.

    Someone downthread mentioned "phony patriotism," and for the life of me, many of those standing seem like phonies to me.

    No broad brush there.  Of course, we could also say that those petulantly refusing to stand out of respect for something seem like phonies who just want to bring attention to themselves because they really think it's all about them and not the collective group in a show of "phony selfishness".  It may or may not be true, of course, but we could think that.

    Hey -  do what you want. No one is stopping you  But don't act like a martyr and pre-emptively assume a "poor me - everyone is picking on me fow what I believe" mentality.


    I'm a little ambivalent (5.00 / 1) (#82)
    by CST on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 04:10:03 PM EST
    about national anthems but I'll stand.

    That being said, people did not die for a symbol.  In all the wars that this country has been fought, I can't think of any that were about symbols.

    Frankly, I think some of the founding fathers would have considered the pledge of alliegance abhorrent.  If anything it was all about standing on a set of principals.  If they had pledged alliegance to a flag they would have never revolted to begin with.  And the second amendment would suggest that they didn't have a ton of faith in future governments either.


    ey (none / 0) (#83)
    by CST on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 04:14:54 PM EST
    i hate it when i rewrite a sentance and don't reread it

    "In all the wars that this country has fought in"


    How does your son react when you depart? (none / 0) (#46)
    by oculus on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:53:18 PM EST
    It was parents night (none / 0) (#70)
    by Dadler on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:38:47 PM EST
    He wasn't there.  He knows I'm a trouble maker.  Had to make some, recently, in order to get him out of the math class he had mistakenly been assigned to.  The vice principal was doing her schtick, trying to get me to keep him in the class he was in, but I wouldn't budge.  "I want him in the right class.  I want him in the right class.  I want him in the right class."  I just kept repeating it, then pulled out my trump card when I felt it was time: "Look my mother is superintendent of a district in Los Angeles, I'm sympathetic to your position, I just can't tolerate it in this instance for my child, and I know exactly what I have to do to get him in that class if you won't do it."  Next day, he was in the right class.  

    Don't you wish (5.00 / 1) (#88)
    by sj on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 04:39:47 PM EST
    that all parents had a trump card?

    Why does it offend? (none / 0) (#30)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:37:55 PM EST
    You are not compelled to pray.

    Why do you feel uncomfortable when others do?


    Even as an avowed (none / 0) (#37)
    by CoralGables on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:45:43 PM EST
    agnostic, I find your comment somewhat offensive and laughably shallow.

    Okay (5.00 / 1) (#73)
    by Dadler on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:46:34 PM EST
    You're offended that I'm offended.  It's a push.  And like I said, I have no interest in keeping anyone from doing anything.  

    nope, he could worship ba'al, (5.00 / 1) (#85)
    by cpinva on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 04:18:27 PM EST
    for all i care.

    Does it bother you that he is an avowed Christian?

    what does bother me is the time wasting, by him and everyone else that does the same nonsense. then, there is the arrogance on display, that their god, who presumably has lots of other, more important things on his plate at the moment, takes sunday off, to watch NFL football.

    they can do the holy roller thing all they want, just do it on the sideline, out of the way of the game.

    tell me jim, would you be so quick to question motive, if young mr. tebow were a devout muslim, and prayed to allah after a TD?


    I had the exact same thought (5.00 / 1) (#86)
    by Zorba on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 04:33:07 PM EST
    about "prayers to allah" that you did, cpinva.

    Fair question (5.00 / 1) (#90)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 04:48:56 PM EST
    Of course if he was a devout Muslim he would have to pray 5 times a day and that would probably require his team to burn a time out, maybe two.

    That could dramatically effect the betting line.


    Why do you think Tebow doesn't have the 15 seconds or so to spare. I mean I know he is busy, but.....

    And what they are doing is thanking God for their many blessings, not asking for more.


    the problem is all (none / 0) (#16)
    by jondee on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:11:20 PM EST
    the avowed Christians who aren't practicing Christians.

    .."And Jesus looked out upon the multitude of neocon creeps and said blessed are all those who bombeth the little children of Iran into the stone age"


    Oh please (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:36:37 PM EST
    None of that has anything  to do with Tebow giving thanks to God for his blessings.

    Why do you resent someone doing such?


    I don't (none / 0) (#36)
    by jondee on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:45:40 PM EST
    read upthread, Rush.

    And btw, didn't He say something about "entering into thy closet to pray"?


    If you aren't bothered (none / 0) (#87)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 04:39:25 PM EST
    you wouldn't have written anything.

    Actions speak.


    you should spend a little (none / 0) (#97)
    by jondee on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 08:24:12 PM EST
    less time out looking for secular humanists to hunt down, with a cross/chip on your shoulder.

    Is Fox offering a bounty now?


    Moses parting the Red Sea? (none / 0) (#8)
    by oculus on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 12:50:01 PM EST
    No, great blocking by the left tackle (none / 0) (#12)
    by rdandrea on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:03:43 PM EST
    #68, Zane Beadles, who pulled out and led Tebow into the end zone outside right tackle.

    Video here.


    Er, Left Guard. (none / 0) (#14)
    by rdandrea on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:05:43 PM EST
    The Defense did seem listless on that play (none / 0) (#66)
    by xanamanax on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:24:58 PM EST
    Maybe they were playing for Andrew Luck.

    I guess this means that, for the (none / 0) (#18)
    by Anne on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:21:25 PM EST
    Indianapolis Colts, Peyton Manning was their illusion of validity...

    I can't believe anyone, who wasn't being paid to cover it, actually watched the Colts/Saints game from beginning to end.  Even if you were a Saints fan, it couldn't have been fun - there was no there there.

    Now, I guess the Raiders - and Hue Jackson - have to hope that Carson Palmer isn't going to turn out to be one of those illusions that bites people in the butt.

    Much higher expectations for (5.00 / 1) (#33)
    by brodie on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:42:06 PM EST
    newbie  in Denver than for the once good but nearly forgotten veteran Palmer in Oakland.

    As for Tebow so long as he continues to improve like Sanchez with the Jets he'll enjoy support from his teammates I suspect. And those QB intangibles are invaluable in the NFL, often making up for physical shortcomings -- see eg average-arm Joe Montana vs strong-arm Ryan Leaf. Bart Starr is another example of a QB making the most of rather ordinary physical skills.

    It's more likely than not that Tebow will succeed as a starting QB because of the intangibles and ability to learn to read defenses and bec of his leadership qualities, something the once-promising Brian Griese of the Broncos didn't have.


    If Kahneman (none / 0) (#20)
    by Edger on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:28:00 PM EST
    who states in his last paragraph, "In general, however, you should not take assertive and confident people at their own evaluation unless you have independent reason to believe that they know what they are talking about" had limited his discussion to politics or to his own fields of psychology and of public affairs, would he be talking about the validity of illusion instead?

    More Importantly.... (none / 0) (#48)
    by ScottW714 on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 01:58:39 PM EST
     ...who is paying for Dilfer's opinion ?  Is he some god in Florida ?  He played when they were in in same division as the Pack and from what I remember he is OK on his best day.

    Who knows about Tebow, and for the most part, QB's with bad mechanics don't do well in the NFL.

    But damn, they flipped over to the last 6 mins of that game here, and that was some exciting football.  I think the Tebow is a bad example for the 'Illusion Of Validity' theory, because had Miami not went for two, and like 5 other odd things, Denver would have lost.  to say Tebow was a success is a misnomer and premature.

    Brees would have been a better example, because there is some history to know the predictions were, for the most part, wrong.  Tebow needs a season or two for anyone to start declaring him a success/failure.

    That being said, even if Tebow is average, he's given Denver a spark, and it way too early to see how that goes.  One of the great coaches, Paterno I believe, once said "Momentum is a State of Mind".  If Tebow can keep them in the mindset I saw yesterday, they, and in turn, Tebow, will be very successful regardless of mechanics or stats.

    For politics, much harder, in football, it's a W or L, in politics, very few events are that black and white, so judging actual predictions is much harder, first you have to commonly agree on the outcome in order to decide if the predictions were accurate.

    To me a good example is poker, anyone can win at anytime, there are more variables then a players skills.  But some people have a talent for the game, for the prediction, it doesn't mean they are going to win every time, but the odds of them winning are better then most.

    Some people are good at prediction, and in those cases 'Illusion Of Validity' is more accurately not an illusion.  Versus a nobody who wins because the cards were simply to good to lose.  Then spends the rest of their life a degenerate gambler disillusioned by the 'Illusion Of Validity'.

    Tebow is not my example (none / 0) (#50)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:03:08 PM EST
    of being disproven - hell, it would mean I was wrong. My point was the certainty from the Dilfers and and Hoges of the world is misplaced. They are not particularly good in their predictions of success for NFL players (Kyle Boller anyone?)



    Hoges in particular is a complete know, IMO (none / 0) (#98)
    by DFLer on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 09:14:33 PM EST
    by the way, I did hear some guys talking on ESPN radio (dunno who or what) but anyway talking about Tebow, with his ahtletic skills, and lack of down-field passing etc., as being (along with other young up and comers..don't recall who) as being perhaps a new future QB model...so maybe there IS a hope for your boy.

    oops menat ot call Hoges a complete knob ! (none / 0) (#103)
    by DFLer on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 10:43:14 PM EST
    Poor Percy Harvin. (none / 0) (#58)
    by oculus on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:14:41 PM EST

    Might get better now (none / 0) (#63)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:18:56 PM EST
    Ponder looks like the real deal.

    Percy's problem is the one I wrote about here all the time - injuries. He's too frsgile.


    Your opinion has been validated. (none / 0) (#65)
    by oculus on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:20:43 PM EST
    Percy broke or bruised his ribs two games ago (none / 0) (#99)
    by DFLer on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 09:17:56 PM EST
    didn't he? played last week, but re-injured the ribs this week...I mean that's what happens to ribs, heh? I woudl exactly call that fragile. He is the best, when he's on the field. Viking fans are happy that Ponder got the shot.

    Did anyone anticipate Ryan Leaf (none / 0) (#71)
    by oculus on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 02:38:50 PM EST
    would be a dud in NFL?  He looked sooooo good in Rose Bowl game.  

    NNT's book on randomness (none / 0) (#94)
    by Addison on Mon Oct 24, 2011 at 06:13:26 PM EST
    Fact: in his 4 games (3 last season and 1 this season) Tim Tebow has had a higher passer rating than Orton did this season or last, and higher than Quinn has had in any of his Cleveland seasons. Also he is the Broncos' 3rd-leading rusher, IIRC. There is no logical reason why he shouldn't be Denver's starting quarterback, and any controversy about that is entirely ginned up for ratings (now that Cam Newton is nearly a franchise player and isn't up for debate).

    So maybe there's your root cause for political, pop-economic, and sports analysts' lack of self-reflection amid repeated inaccuracy - being correct isn't as lucrative as being entertaining. They aren't falling victim to an illusion if what they are doing is ignoring objective feedback because they're getting paid for subjective content - we're just evaluating them on the wrong job.

    However, the real reason for my comment is I think this general idea of the illusion of validity (amid non-public traders) was covered extensively in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's pre-"Black Swan" book, "Fooled by Randomness", which I highly recommend to people who like his other more-recent work.


    by Gerald USN Ret on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 07:27:57 PM EST
    When I talked about football, that was in High School.

    When I got to the Academy, some coaches heard about me from a recruit that knew me and were curious, so they asked me to come on over.  Two of them looked me over and asked a few basic question, weight, height, 40 yd speed, (I told them my 5 to 20 yard speed was good), and the like and then they talked to me about playing quarterback and line backer in high school at the same time. One had played both offense and defense as well, but not quarterback. I told them I only did it when it was absolutely necessary especially late in a close game.  They asked how that came about.  I said I had asked the coach to let me do it. I had felt I could help the guys.  I knew what they could do better than they did, and I knew I could help.  The coaches then looked at each other, and told me that they would like me to "walk on."

    I politely declined, referring to my academic goals.
    Many times, I have wondered about that decision.  Just to be on the team.  I knew that I would never play much, but there were thoughts about becoming a coach that had already occurred to me.

    Other times, I said to myself and others "good move."