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Counterfactual: What If Obama Had Not Done The Deal?

By now you may have figured out that I think "The Deal" was a terrible mistake. Consider the counterfactual I propose in the title of this post - what if Obama had not done The Deal. Let's start with the positives of The Deal - unemployment insurance was extended for a year - an unmitigated good thing.To me, that is the end of the goods things. YMMV. More . . .

Now the bad things - tax cuts for the rich. Standing alone, this is not objectively a bad thing. It does have a slight stimulative effect. But it s does not stand alone. It leads to spending cuts. In the long term and medium term, taking from government programs to provide tax cuts for the rich is a terrible policy. In the short term, it is catastrophically bad policy, as it trades the most effective economic stimulus, government spending, for the worst stimulative policy, tax cuts for folks whose demand is not constrained. In addition, tax cuts for persons making more than, say, 100k a year is also bad policy, but not as bad as tax cuts for the wealthy.

Now, let's consider the counterfactual - the what if? What would not doing The Deal have entailed? No UI extension - definitely bad. No tax cuts, in theory anti-stimulative. In reality, pro-stimulative because the argument for cutting spending would be substantially weakened.

Moreover, where would we be today in the debate on taxes and spending? We would be in a debate where the demand for UI extension would be on the table, taxes would be on the table, all spending would be on the table, debt ceiling increase would be on the table, etc. In short a deal where EVERYTHING would be on the table.

The argument in favor of The Deal requires belief that The Deal was better than any deal that could be negotiated now. That argument depends on the idea that there will not be the votes for a better deal now. At least in terms of tax policy, this argument seems absolutely untenable. The tax deal was as bad as it could possibly be, It could not be worse.

On spending, it was, imo, equally bad, as the only spending "concession" the GOP provided was UI extension. Personally, I think it would have happened anyway, then or now. I place zero value on this "concession."

As for the rest of the spending deal, it is indefensible negotiation. The GOP gave up NOTHING on spending. Quite the opposite, they now control where the spending negotiations begin.

In short, the President and Dems gave up their strongest bargaining chip, tax policy, for next to nothing. Now the GOP holds all the cards, unless the President is prepared to have a government shutdown.

The Deal was and is, indefensible.

Speaking for me only

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    I wonder (5.00 / 2) (#1)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 11:52:00 AM EST
    if Obama realizes that the "deal" may have cost him reelection? I think he actually thinks it helps him.

    The GOP absolutely would have given in on extending unemployment benefits. They've already done it a number of times and many of them remember when they didn't do it in '90 and got walloped during the midterm election.

    I don't think Obama will allow the government to shut down. I think he will give the GOP what they want every time they ask.

    and even when they don't ask . . . :( (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by nycstray on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 11:56:13 AM EST
    Cost him the election? (none / 0) (#19)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:03:03 PM EST
    The facts say the opposite is happening.

    "Just two months removed from a midterm shellacking that saw the GOP win a whopping 63 seats in the House, President Obama's approval rating has suddenly spiked in recent polls, a change so significant that for the first time in eight months the President has a net positive approval rating in the TPM Poll Average.

    In the current TPM Poll Average, Obama posts an approval rating of 47.9% compared to a disapproval rating of 47.3%. It marks the first time Obama has notched a net positive in the TPM average since May 18, when that split was 47.7% to 47.6%."

    Link

    Those numbers are higher than Clinton's at the same point in his presidency. Set aside the economic impact, from a political perspective, what he's doing is working remarkably well.  I've argued here from the start that the road BTD and other advocated may be right for the country but wrong for his (and the Dems) re-election chances.

    This could be a place where the majority of the voters simply have it wrong in terms of what's right for the country.  I think that is a possibility those who don't like the Deal have to come to terms with.

    [I continue to believe that he made the right call to cut the Deal though. ]

    Parent

    You have also repeatedly said (5.00 / 3) (#20)
    by observed on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:05:47 PM EST
    that you have no idea what will happen, what is good policy, what good economic policy. In fact, you have confessed abject ignorance on every subject relevant to the debate, yet you have the firmest possible belief in Obama's choices.


    Parent
    That's because (5.00 / 3) (#32)
    by sj on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:44:05 PM EST
    ABG's only concern is O's shot at re-election.  Good policy?  Not important enough to learn about.  Apparently he (ABG) is supremely confident about O's priorities:  O himself.

    ABG believes that O will always do what is necessary to get himself re-elected, therefore it must, of course, be the right thing to get him re-elected.  This is, of course, a text-book case of the circular reasoning fallacy.

    Parent

    I've stated repeatedly that that is not true SJ (none / 0) (#49)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:28:16 PM EST
    But let me state it again (as I did in one of my posts on this already):

    The political calculus and the economic policy calculus could ultimately lead to opposite outcomes in the period between now and 2012.

    BTD maintains that the route to reelection is the policies that he advocates because those policy will strengthen the country long term.  Now he could be right about the impact of the policies but completely wrong about the election calculus.  

    The two issues intertwine because it is being argued that the policies BTD advocates will have a big enough effect short term to change impact Obama's election chances.

    My comments today have been only as to the political side of the equation and leave open the right/wrong of BTDs policy predictions.  

    You ignore that because you don't like Obama, or those who defend them, very much I think, but that doesn't make what you are saying correct.

    Parent

    Benefit of the doubt (5.00 / 1) (#73)
    by sj on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:20:33 PM EST
    Okay, I'll give it.  I only recall you ever discussing politics in terms of the political advantage/disadvantage to O.  But -- as hard as it is for even me to believe -- I don't read every word written on this site.  So I concede that I may have missed your opinions on the merits of a given policy.

    Point me to your comments on policy that are not discussed through the prism of O's political viability and I will educate myself.

    As to my not liking Obama: that's ridiculous.  I don't know him so I can't possibly like OR dislike him.  In fact, I expect he's likeable enough.  

    Same with his "defenders".  

    I do, however, abhor the outcomes and apparent intentions of most of his political actions.

    Parent

    Negotiating Malpractice (5.00 / 1) (#128)
    by norris morris on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 06:57:25 PM EST
    ABG's assertions and rationale are not fact based. Just the end......justifies....you know....getting re-elected.

    Obama committed political and negotiating malpractice when he gave the GOP everything they wanted PLUS the Estate Tax Deal thatI doubt even Reagen would have had the stones to touch. This was an extra goodie to the GOP and Wall Street where the re-election bucks are.

    On UI, if Obama hadn't caved this would have been out on the table with everything else. Now the cuts in spending will be cotrolled by the GOP as Obama ceded his bargaining chips away.

    Letting the country see the GOP attack Unemployment Ins. would have been a huge political loss for them if they continued to oppose it.

    Obama got little and gave everything away. Period.
    The GOP ate his lunch and will continue to do so as they fight HCR and everything the Democrats SAY they want.

    Listen up. When you say you're for something and get elected to fulfill your promise, you're expected to practice the smartest politics and  negotiations that lead to fulfillment of same.

    Elected Democrats have not been unified by clear leadership from the President who should have been setting the agenda,positions, and strategies.
    Like Snow White, the Democrats have been drifting.

    Re-election isn't even worth discussing now as so much can happen. If Obama continues to cave and the economy does not improve through job creation he probably will be defeated. But then again, everthing is up in the air and predictions about re-election are meaningless.

    Parent

    I have done no such thing (2.00 / 1) (#27)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:29:37 PM EST
    I have simply said that anyone who says "I know for certain that X is the action to fix the economy" is likely overstating both their case and their knowledge of these ridiculously complex political and economic issues.

    We've simply never had an economic and political environment happening simultaneously in the way that we do now.  This mortgage driven, bank fueled, global crash is unlike anything we've ever seen and represents a fundamental global paradigm shift that cannot be directly linked to any other recession or depression.

    Shorter: This sh*t is all new.

    Secondly, I am not so staunchly ideological that I can't see benefits in the opponents' proposals or understand the political limitations on the president's power.

    You are either an idealist or a pragmatist and I am becoming increasingly pragmatic as I see what the GOP is willing to do in their struggle for power.

    Parent

    If you can't compare this period (5.00 / 4) (#48)
    by Anne on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:26:13 PM EST
    to any other, then you need to lost the constant Obama v. Clinton poll comparisons, don't you think?

    And your attempt to set the stage for why, if the whole thing goes to economic hell in a handbasket, Obama couldn't have done anything about it, is much more obvious than I guess you thought it would be.

    Here's something to ponder in your spare time: great leaders and great presidents don't have to know absolutely everything about everything to accomplish great things.  But the people they surround themselves with, the people whose advice they depend on to guide the decision-making process, the people who help shape policy - those people tell you what a president's vision really is, where he wants to go, the role he sees for government in lifting people up.  And on that score, this president reveals that, far from being the leader who will usher in a new era of progressive, positive policy, he will usher in a world of hurt for many, many people that may take decades to recover from.

    Parent

    George W. Bush was a two term president (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by MO Blue on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:48:08 PM EST
    regardless of how destructive his policies were  and how bad ordinary people will suffer for them. Better than average chance that Obama will also be a two term president regardless of how destructive his policies are and how bad ordinary people will suffer for them.

    A win for Obama regardless of the negative ramifications of his policies is all that matters to you.

    Parent

    That is not all that matters to me (none / 0) (#50)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:29:48 PM EST
    If we are turning to the ecomomic impact of the policies, we can discuss that, but that's never been a point I've made here or anywhere else.

    Parent
    Please. Do. (none / 0) (#82)
    by sj on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:33:54 PM EST
    Turn to the economic impact of the policies and discuss that.

    Parent
    Correction to my query (none / 0) (#83)
    by sj on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:35:53 PM EST
    Turn to the economic and social impact of the policies and discuss that.

    Parent
    I don't think it's possible to set aside (5.00 / 3) (#39)
    by Anne on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:55:22 PM EST
    the economic impact; it won't matter how brilliant you now assess Obama's political moves to be, or how often you compare Obama's numbers to Clinton's, the political fallout from bad economic decisions will not turn out well for Obama.

    More importantly, what will have happened is that the economics of Obama's decisions failed to the great disadvantage of millions of people AND it will have helped usher in a more conservative, openly anti-government Republican party.

    Which brings up a point I have raised with you before: you always make this about Obama, as if all that matters is his political fortune, his chances for re-election, and I can't decide if you just don't care how the deals he's making and the policy and legislation he's advocating for affect the people who have to live by them, or you don't understand them.

    Spend some time looking at Greece, Ireland and England, all of which have embarked on austerity programs that have been bad for their countries, bad for their people and, I suspect, bad for their political fortunes.  Is The Deal an austerity program?  In and of itself, no, but it was never going to be a one-and-done move; it was always intended to be the lead-in to a new era of painful austerity.  It was a "last meal" if you will before we all get strapped down on the gurney.

    Parent

    I think wrong thoughts Anne (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:08:24 PM EST
    I think about very very smart Democrats who might want Obama to fail horribly and miserably and wipe out in enormous pain and suffering and then need to leave office because his wife already hates trying to survive in the White House anyhow.  I think about who might have shown up recently to help him cave in brotherly love knowing it would lead to even more Obama disaster further down the road.  Someone slick could even manage to smooth that over in time....  I don't think the Republicans can win either when the people really start hurting, they have no real solutions that end anyone's pain or suffering or hunger, or build anything for the poor or middle class.  They have spent their entire lives trying to avoid giving anything to the poor and breaking the unions that attempted to protect a middle class.

    Parent
    He's that dumb? (none / 0) (#131)
    by BrassTacks on Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 02:28:15 AM EST
    So dumb that nefarious democrats are leading him astray, hoping for his failure, and he doesn't notice?

    Parent
    Since you like quoting numbers (5.00 / 1) (#72)
    by jbindc on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:15:38 PM EST
    The other side of the coin is the fact that yes, Obama's approval rating is slightly higher than Clinton's at the same time, but Obama started his presidency nine points higher than Clinton did and Obama has seen the sharpest drop in job approval of any president post-WWII president other than Jimmy Carter.

    That's a HUGE difference!

    Parent

    Well (2.00 / 1) (#99)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 04:02:19 PM EST
    no President in recent memory has come into office with that kind of support.  He was going to have the biggest drop in history regardless as reality set in and he had to do something.


    Parent
    Ronald Reagan (5.00 / 2) (#102)
    by jbindc on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 04:05:46 PM EST
    Won 49 states - in an actual landslide.

    That's pretty recent memory.

    Parent

    TPM (5.00 / 2) (#75)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:22:44 PM EST
    is like the national journal. It's not that they are going to tell you anything you don't want to hear. They are all about revving up the troops.

    The fact of the matter is that Obama has continued the failed policies that have kept us at high unemployment making it unlikely that the economy will recover by 2012.

    The fact that they are higher than Clinton's mean nothing. As a matter of fact the people with the lower numbers got reelected and the people with the higher numbers like Bush Sr. lost.

    And those numbers even in November do not represent what happened in Nov. There's no way someone with his approval numbers in Nov should have had his party lose a record!!! number of seats. The only conclusion I can come to is that he polls higher than reality.

    Parent

    I stopped going to TPM (5.00 / 2) (#95)
    by smott on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:54:50 PM EST
    ...after The Kidnapping in 2008.

    SS, BTW, was Josh's (pre-kidnap Josh anyway) Signature Issue in 2005-6 and he did yeoman's work helping to expose and beat back Bush's stab at Privatization....(Much as health care reform was Young Ezra's issue...back then, anyway)...

    Soon I expect to hear from post-Kidnap Josh how Obama's dismantling of SS is the Greatest Thing Evah.

    Can't wait....

    Parent

    The Kidnapping of 2008? (none / 0) (#101)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 04:04:50 PM EST
    Well I know that whole Obama Stole It meme is a part of the demographics here but I am going to call people out on it whenever I see it (after all, hearing that is how I got my name).

    I politely call BS on all of that mess.

    Parent

    another position change on TPM in 2008. Not a rehash of the primaries.

    Parent
    The kidnapping reference (none / 0) (#105)
    by lilburro on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 04:14:31 PM EST
    doesn't have to do with Obama really, it refers to the period in which Josh Marshall was just kind of over the top about...everything.  The phrase is WKJM (who kidnapped Josh Marshall).

    Parent
    The premise of the post ... (none / 0) (#51)
    by Yman on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:29:52 PM EST
    ... is that, in accepting the Deal, Obama gave away his strongest/only bargaining piece to fend off the massive spending cuts that will certainly be proposed by the GOP Congress in the name of "fiscal responsibility".  Those cuts haven't happened yet, and people obviously will not be feeling their effects until after they do.  Obama's poll numbers at this point (21 months out from the election), are useless, including his 0.6% net approval rating.

    Parent
    Agree on all points. UI would have been (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by Buckeye on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 12:42:20 PM EST
    extended anyway.  The GOP has agreed to these extensions something like 5 times already as stand alone bills.

    The Deal did nothing to address the 99ers. (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by jeffinalabama on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 12:48:43 PM EST
    Since the economy is so rubust, the deal just kicked the can down the road until february or march for those in upper tiers of unemployment compensation.

    So... how catastrophic would life had been without the deal? without an adjustment to the tier schedule, we'll still see people use up their eligibility. I don't recall the deal resetting people to tier one. Did that happen?

    If I'm correct, every week since 'the deal' people have been finishing their eligibility. What's next, since there seem to be few or no bargaining chips left?

    I'd love to see the B-1 and B-2 mothballed, the F-35 severely curtailed (last time there was a joint aircraft project we wound up with the F-4 and the F-111B, but the F 111B didn't work out.

    So...the deal leaves the Democrats having to compromise from weakness, since taxes are 'off the table,' a Tier V unemployment is off the table, job creation through governmental purchases of durable goods-- not boondoggles-- is off the table...

    The Deal is transformative, bit in my opinion it's like much of the health insurance legislation, transformative in the near-term "let them eat cake" change, not any real help.

    I already have heard from former students who have exhausted unemployment. They're moving in with parents in their late 20s and 30s.

    If there's an upside, the former students I know are volunteering at animal shelters, volunteering to be long-term care advocates, and other types of voluntarism, whilde desparately looking for some form of income.

    I haven't been thinking about it, because I don't want to find out what has been pre-lost.

    The deal was buying a pig in a poke.

    "unless the President is prepared (5.00 / 2) (#18)
    by robotalk on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:02:09 PM EST
    to have a government shutdown"

    Is there any element in Obama's being that leads you to believe he will have showdown over this issue?

    More cave to come.

    Of course he'll cave (2.00 / 1) (#22)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:07:20 PM EST
    on various issues.

    That is what the country wants him to do.  Is the only route to success caving on nothing?

    Parent

    Bill (5.00 / 1) (#84)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:37:02 PM EST
    Clinton got a LOT of respect for standing up to the GOP. Nobody respects a caver in chief.

    Parent
    "Of course he'll cave" (none / 0) (#33)
    by sj on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:44:22 PM EST
    Is the only route to success caving on everything and championing no Democratic principals at all?

    If, as you say, caving is what the country wants him to do, then "the country" wanted someone who will continue to implement and strengthen Bush policies.

    Parent

    BTD misses a couple points (5.00 / 2) (#28)
    by pluege2 on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:30:03 PM EST
     1) worst part of "the deal": borrowing 2% from SS payments for a year. The ridiculous notion that this would or could ever be paid back from general funds is insulting. Every year they steal from SS to reduce the apparent size of that year's deficit. Where would they ever, EVER generate the revenue to pay back the trust fund? They won't. So obama just hastened the talking point that SS is going broke from 35 years to something less after missing 2% of payments for a year. Completely scandalous obama's scam on SS.

     2) republicans (boehner for sure) already capitulated prior to "the deal" that they would vote for extension of the cuts for those below $250k WITHOUT extension for the rich above $250k. BUT, they never had to because obama and the vichy dems NEVER TRIED!

    here's the deal: everyone - literally EVERYONE in the government with any power is rich. So who the hell is looking after the interests of the non-rich? no one, that's who.
    .

    I read a few blurbs about (5.00 / 0) (#38)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:52:16 PM EST
    the economic team that Paul Volcker has recently abandoned being worried that not extending the tax cuts for the rich would shake up the markets.  They consider their recovery very tender and fragile, so in the backrooms taxing the rich was never fought for because it was never actually wanted by this President's economic team.  I do not consider this a recovery at all.....tender or otherwise, just a lull in the storm unless you are in Algeria right now or Jordan or Lebanon......if you are there the storm has fully arrived.

    Parent
    And, 3) (5.00 / 0) (#40)
    by KeysDan on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:03:27 PM EST
    the estate tax  bonanza--increased the threshold and decreased the tax rate, to the unexpected delight of the Republicans. (first the death tax and, later, the death panels)

    Parent
    Agreed (none / 0) (#122)
    by pluege2 on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 06:28:35 PM EST
    forgot that one - you are absolutely correct.

    for progressives, obama is a Trojan Horse.

    Parent

    Bernie Sanders is on the case! (5.00 / 3) (#76)
    by jbindc on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:24:27 PM EST
    Warns Obama not to agree with GOP on Social Security cuts.

    "I urge you to once again make clear to the American people that under your watch we will not cut Social Security benefits, raise the retirement age or privatize this critical program," Sanders wrote in a letter to Obama. "Social Security is a promise that we cannot and must not break."

    Sanders, who caucuses with Senate Democrats, and other liberals are worried about whether they can trust Obama after he struck a deal with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) last year to pass an $858 billion tax package.



    Parent
    He's like a voice in the wilderness, (5.00 / 3) (#79)
    by Anne on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:30:33 PM EST
    but God love him for continuing to fight the good fight.

    I know Harry Reid had a little back-and-forth with David Gregory on MTP recently, in which he defended Social Security, but I wish I had heard Reid say that SS isn't a budget/deficit issue, which is one of the misconceptions the deficit- and entitlement-haters keep perpetuating (gee, I wonder why?).

    Parent

    I just wonder (none / 0) (#87)
    by jbindc on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:41:01 PM EST
    What's going to happen to all these "regular folk" who voted for Republicans when Ss gets cut.  Many of these "regular folk" are baby boomers too who are about to (if not already) start collecting Social Security.  Are they going to wake up one day and say WTF happened?

    Parent
    Poor old logical socialist (5.00 / 1) (#90)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:46:35 PM EST
    Better watch what you say or they'll be calling you a radical, a liberal, fanatical, criminal


    Parent
    Most days (5.00 / 1) (#124)
    by chrisvee on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 06:38:22 PM EST
    I feel more like a vegetable.

    Parent
    Winner: Best use of Supertramp (none / 0) (#92)
    by jbindc on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:48:41 PM EST
    on a blog

    Award goes to MT!

    Parent

    Yeah, but if you say things ... (5.00 / 2) (#43)
    by Yman on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:10:27 PM EST
    ... like,

    We've simply never had an economic and political environment happening simultaneously in the way that we do now

    This mortgage driven, bank fueled, global crash is unlike anything we've ever seen and represents a fundamental global paradigm shift

    and

    This sh*t is all new.

    ... then you couple that with the need to "understand the political limitations on the President's power and you have the best of both worlds.  If the economy stays in the crapper, you just say, "Well, there's really nothing Obama could have done anyway, given the unprecedented, horrific, financial meltdown of intergalactic proportions that he was faced with, not to mention that as President he really has very little power."  OTOH, if the economy improves (even slightly), you can say something like "Look at what miracles Obama has been able to accomplish, despite the intergalactic, financial meltdown of unprecedented proportions, and despite his limited power as President!  Why, his performance is ...

    downright magical
    !"

    See?

    Win-win.

    (May need to replace the "downright magical" phrase, since ABG's already used that one.

    Don't want to start sounding silly, after all ...)

    My honest assessment (5.00 / 2) (#47)
    by andgarden on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:26:01 PM EST
    is that either ABG or BTD will prove right on the politics, and I don't know where this is going to land.

    I do know that BTD is right on the policy, though.

    I tend to think (5.00 / 1) (#54)
    by CST on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:35:47 PM EST
    ABG is right on politics, at least for the short term, and BTD is right on policy (not sure on longer-term politics).  

    Bottom line though, I feel that 2 years out from an election is the most opportune time to say f*ck politics and get something done.

    Parent

    And nobody seems to understand that (none / 0) (#55)
    by andgarden on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:37:20 PM EST
    better than Illinois Democrats, who just completed a really impressive lame duck session.

    Parent
    I suspect (none / 0) (#56)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:37:55 PM EST
    That I am right on the politics and BTD is right (although not 100% . . . maybe 75%) on the policy, to be honest.

    My real point here is that many here have not come to grips with the fact that BTD's policy could lose Obama the election.

    If you are asking Obama to sacrifice a second term to drive the best policy long term, that's a fair request and a completely reasonable one.

    What seems unreasonable is to simultaneously bash him for giving the conservatives power over all three branches in 2012 and then demand that he takes policy positions that are ultimately politically fatal.

    Parent

    But you are the one advocating (5.00 / 1) (#58)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:48:33 PM EST
    a policy that risks Obama's second term,not me.

    You write:

    What seems unreasonable is to simultaneously bash him for giving the conservatives power over all three branches in 2012 and then demand that he takes policy positions that are ultimately politically fatal.

    What is more unreasonable is to defend bad policy that will could lead to political disaster.

    What I do not understand is the idea that you forward that a poll today matters for the election in 2012. That's simply not how it works.

    Parent

    Base Assumptions (none / 0) (#66)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:04:54 PM EST
    I think that the tax deal is likely bad long term, over the course of 5-10 years. I think it is likely good over the next 1.5 years.

    What we're talking about from a political perspective is the next 1.5 years.

    The difference between us (from a political perspective) comes down to how fast the negative effects become apparent.  We are just going to have to agree to disagree until late-2011 on that.

    My prediction: the economy is going to improve to some degree, the Deal will be one of many factors and it will be impossible to isolate exactly what was responsible.

    But let me throw one last poll out to this chain:

    The last poll on Polling Reports shows that the tax deal was favored by the masses, 75% to 23%.

    http://www.pollingreport.com/budget.htm

    I keep coming back to those numbers because they matter. People were generally OK with the Deal, regardless of how much the less moderate factions hated it. That reality has to be addressed.

    Maybe it will be when my economic predictions are proven wrong.

    But what if I am right?  I don't think some even acknowledge the possibility despite the fact that it is almost certain that things will be better in 1.5 years than they are today.  Every indicator says it will be.

    I can find no economist who believes that we will be at the exact same level of unemployment in a few years.

    The real question is how well the modest improvement can be sold. Obama's Deal is a big part of that sales pitch for the Dems.

    Parent

    This all depends (none / 0) (#67)
    by andgarden on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:08:08 PM EST
    on whether Obama wins the spending showdown with the House. If he does, the deal merely created a long term problem. If he doesn't, it set the stage for a short term crisis.

    I haven't seen you engage that point.

    Parent

    The point (none / 0) (#103)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 04:09:32 PM EST
    I don't think anyone "wins" the spending cut battle.

    I think there is pain inflicted on both sides of the battle and modest dents are made in the deficit because the economy is too fragile to make serious changes.  What occurs is a promising start on a long term process that no one really loves but get things moving in the right direction.

    And Obama wins in that scenario.

    I just realized something:

    People here believe that this spending battle is going to be some kind of last stand on the issue. No wonder BTD places so much emphasis on the Tax Deal. He believes that this is it.  This is the battle to end all battles. We win here or we never win.

    The economy isn't going to allow for that kind of final resolution/reckoning.  

    Parent

    I think you overestimate (5.00 / 3) (#59)
    by CST on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:49:18 PM EST
    the longer term political benefit to this vote.

    The 2012 election will not be about "the deal", it will be about "the economy".  So, IMO, for this to matter in 2012, "the deal" will have to be good for "the economy", which I... have my doubts about.

    I think what you're missing is that people do not automatically assume "temporarily unpopular" is the same as "politically fatal".  You can pass unpopular policy so long as it works.  Indeed, you can pass popular policy and still get creamed for it if it doesn't work (see Iraq).  I think Obama could've weathered whatever storm would have come his way had he not made "the deal"

    Parent

    Remembering that (none / 0) (#60)
    by andgarden on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:52:28 PM EST
    allowing the tax cuts to expire would simply have been a return to successful Clinton administration policy.

    Parent
    What is unreasonable to me has nothing to (5.00 / 5) (#64)
    by jeffinalabama on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:00:58 PM EST
    do with his political future, but with the future of millions of citizens. As an Army officer, I had to make tough decisions that could have been, and ultimately some were, career-enders.

    To not make the decisions based on what would be best for me was not an option. Obama should have looked at this as a no-option set of issues.

    Why do you think George W. Bush was re-elected? It certainly had nothing to do with pre-emptive bargainaing.

    If you don't stand for something, you'll fall for anything. Anything being a Bob Dole health insurance reform policy with a couple of twists, setting the stage for the federal government to renege on, either completely or in part, SS, Medicare, and medicaid, and who knows what else, since non-budget items have become budget items.

    Leadership sometimes means falling on your sword for a greater good.

    And on another note, polls taken this month an/or last month aren't reliable for predicting how polls will be in one year, much less two.

    There's a time for politics, and a time for statesmanship. A four-year re-election model has not served to turn the economy around. Only to suggest plenty of funding from the corporations.

    Realpolitik sometimes means doing something.

    Parent

    The politics is complicated (none / 0) (#57)
    by andgarden on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:44:29 PM EST
    because Obama has already signed on to the destructive policy that he needs to be willing to shut down the government to block. Or, at least, that's what the Republicans will argue. If they do so successfully, we will lose on the politics and the policy, because the policies the Republicans will insist on will seriously damage the economy.

    Parent
    I agree with you on the politics (none / 0) (#61)
    by ruffian on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:55:04 PM EST
    because the dirtiest chickens created by the bad policy won't come home to roost until after the election. Much like Bush really did not see the worst of his policies in his term.

    Parent
    Except that Obama has embraced (5.00 / 2) (#65)
    by andgarden on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:01:35 PM EST
    the deficit now! fetish. If he doesn't find a way to pull back on that, there will be pain soon.

    Parent
    I just don't think it will happen that fast. (none / 0) (#126)
    by ruffian on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 06:48:01 PM EST
    Also, the deficit is this election's media darling (none / 0) (#127)
    by ruffian on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 06:52:48 PM EST
    Choosing the staff he has (none / 0) (#110)
    by jbindc on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 04:28:13 PM EST
    Doesn't help inspire confidence that he is good on either the politics or the policy.

    Link

    With Obama's appointment of JP Morgan Chase executive William Daley as his chief of staff and Gene Sperling to head the National Economic Council, the White House is tooled to coordinate even more seamlessly with Wall Street. Both are seasoned operatives in subverting government to private purposes, having made their bones in Bill Clinton's administration, where Daley was the indispensable man in passing the Clinton/Republican NAFTA bill despite the opposition of 60 percent of Democrats in the House. Both are now rich banksters specializing in moving effortlessly from the boardroom to wherever the public's money is kept.

    Economist Dean Baker, of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, doesn't mind the money Sperling made from Goldman Sachs. His problem with Obama's new top economic advisor is:

    "Sperling saw nothing wrong with the stock market bubble that laid the basis for the 2001 recession. The economy did not begin to create jobs again until two and a half years after the beginning of this recession and even then it was only due to the growth of the housing bubble. Gene Sperling also saw nothing wrong with the growth of that bubble. Gene Sperling also saw nothing wrong with the financial deregulation of the Clinton years which, by the way, helped make Goldman Sachs lots of money. And, he saw nothing wrong with the over-valued dollar which gave the United States an enormous trade deficit. This trade deficit undermined the bargaining power of manufacturing workers and helped to redistribute income upward.

    "In short, Sperling has a horrible track record of supporting policies that were bad for the country and good for Wall Street."



    Parent
    The big sign it was a bad thing? (5.00 / 3) (#91)
    by Robot Porter on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:46:59 PM EST
    Everyone in the MSM told me it was a good thing.

    The sign that it would been better if Obama hadn't done the deal?  

    Everyone in the MSM told me (more shouted at me) HE HAD TO DO THE DEAL!

    These days the MSM provides a wonderful reverse barometer.

    But no Deal would have been the end of Obama (none / 0) (#2)
    by Saul on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 11:54:48 AM EST
    The deal would have been proposed by the newly elected Rep congress and passed with the credit given to the Rep not the lame duck congress and if Obama would have veto it in 2011 he and the deomocrats would be history in 2012.

    IMO he had no choice even though there was one.

    IMO again I think his strategy is to do what he really wanted to do 2010 but is waiting for his reelection in 2012 when he has nothing to lose.  

    How so? (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 11:56:26 AM EST
    Would he have been thown out of office right then and there?

    Was there going to be an election called immediately?

    This makes no sense to me.

    Parent

    He was looking at his chances in 2012 (none / 0) (#6)
    by Saul on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 11:59:57 AM EST
    if he made the wrong decision now.

    Parent
    He did make the wrong decision (none / 0) (#7)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 12:03:42 PM EST
    politically.

    You make no argument that I can see that The Deal will be advantageous to Obama in 2012.

    My argument for why it is not advantageous for him policitcally is asimple one - The Deal has a PArt 2 - massive spending cutswhich will damage the economy and Obama's chances in 2012.

    Parent

    Cuts done by the new Repbulican congress (none / 0) (#8)
    by Saul on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 12:11:38 PM EST
    not Obama. Let the Democrats be the party of no federal program cuts just like the Rep were the party of no tax cuts.   Obama will say we went along with your tax Deal only to prove that it did not work.  Now we'll try it my way (in 2012)  He will make sure that the blame is not on him but on the new Congress.

    It is part of several  strategies he is probably banking on IMO.

    Parent

    That's silly (none / 0) (#9)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 12:18:23 PM EST
    Presidents get the blame or the credit.

    Parent
    Yes generally (none / 0) (#11)
    by Saul on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 12:21:51 PM EST
    but I think Obama will find a way to change that by 2012.

    Parent
    ok (none / 0) (#12)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 12:23:21 PM EST
    Not True BTD (none / 0) (#23)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:14:44 PM EST
    Republicans in congress got the blame for trying to shut down the government before.

    A skilled politician can make this work.  It won't be easy though. That is clear.

    Parent

    Yes when you do stand up to (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:20:53 PM EST
    opposition and call them, what they hold is exposed and they become accountable.  This is not what happens when Presidents cave though, when Presidents cave they politically solely own the outcome.

    Parent
    11 strategies, one for each dimension? (none / 0) (#10)
    by observed on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 12:19:42 PM EST
    Or do the superstrings count too?

    Parent
    Survey Says (none / 0) (#24)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:18:51 PM EST
    "Today Obama would beat Republican Mitt Romney by 51 to 38 percent, the poll showed. In a December McClatchy-Marist poll, he trailed the former Massachusetts governor by 46-44 percent.

    Obama would defeat Republican Mike Huckabee by a similar margin, 50-38 percent. In December, the president led the former Arkansas governor by only 47-43 percent.

    And he'd crush Palin by 56-30 percent. A month before, he led the former Alaska governor by 52-40 percent."

    http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2011/01/obama-political-fortunes-are-rising/1

    Parent

    yes, and Reagan won re-election (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by observed on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:30:35 PM EST
    in 1984, enabling him to move the country so far to the right that  someone like Obama, who in 2011 is to the right of where Dick Cheney was in 1978, comes across as "moderate" to "liberal".
    Four more years of Obama means the Republicans could right Attila Hitler as a centrist.

    Parent
    Hmm (none / 0) (#26)
    by lilburro on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:22:23 PM EST
    I think Obama's going to take the blame if he approves any significant federal spending cuts.

    Obama will say we went along with your tax Deal only to prove that it did not work.

    IMO, Obama has definitely taken ownership of the Tax Deal.  If he doesn't approve federal spending cuts, he's going to run on the Deal working.  Which will as some said before the Deal was made, almost entirely guarantee that tax cuts for the rich will be extended permanently or at least, again.

    No cuts to federal spending - his gift to the Left.  Tax cuts for the rich working and extended again - his gift to the Right.  Oh it's good to be in the Middle!!!!  (not)

    Parent

    Most of the assumptions (none / 0) (#30)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:34:10 PM EST
    in this chain and others assume the absolute worst.  They imply that Obama will cave on absolutely everything and gain nothing from the coming battles.

    I like to gamble and that seems to me to be a very poor, poor bet to make, but that seems to be what many here think will occur.

    If there was a way to bet legally against the "lose-lose" outcome suggested here, I'd bet the house.

    Everything we know tells us that it is not going to occur in the "worst case scenario" fact pattern being presented here as the most likely outcome.

    Game theory says otherwise.

    Now that doesn't mean that those here won't be angry at Obama for caving on some things they think are important. He will. Almost certainly.

    And if he wants to stay in office, he will have to.  People want him to unify.

    Parent

    Nah (5.00 / 1) (#77)
    by MO Blue on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:28:35 PM EST
    Obama won't cave. He will just offer all the Republican agenda items to them and more prior to any negotiation.

    Parent
    What has Obama not caved on? (none / 0) (#35)
    by Buckeye on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:49:58 PM EST
    Do not say Healthcare because they knew fairly early they would not get republican support.  He caved on just about everything (public option, drug reimportation, etc.).

    Parent
    I have no response (none / 0) (#53)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:32:45 PM EST
    to those that argue that in passing HCR, Obama caved to every conservative demand.

    If he had done that we wouldn't have HCR.  The premise is silly and assumes that nothing was gained through HCR.

    Parent

    We didn't get health care reform, ABG, (5.00 / 2) (#63)
    by Anne on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:57:25 PM EST
    we got a few crumbs that may not survive 2011, much less still be around in 2014, when the rest of it is supposed to kick in, while the insurance industry got a huge windfall that they immediately began to take full advantage of, and will milk for as long as they can.

    Obama started the health-whatever reform discussion from the conservative side of the issue, and gave more concessions to the industry and the GOP - and Blue Dog Dems - along the way.

    Calling it the "Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act" didn't mean it actually will be doing much protecting, or that anyone will be able to afford actual care after paying already-unaffordable premiums that continue to rise.

    I sometimes can't believe you're still making these arguments.

    Parent

    My brother (none / 0) (#68)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:08:55 PM EST
    has healthcare today that he would not have had without HCR.

    I think that is the clearest refutation of your point that I can provide.

    What is your response? "No ABG, he would have had HCR?"  How is that exactly?

    The change was real and is irrefutable.

    Parent

    If your brother is now getting CARE (5.00 / 2) (#74)
    by Anne on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:21:49 PM EST
    that he was unable to get before, that's a good thing.  If he has health INSURANCE that he couldn't get before, that's only good if he can afford that cost, as well as the cost of the actual care.

    There are more people who don't have insurance now, than who didn't have it two years ago, in large part because it's simply not affordable.  This legislation did nothing to reverse that; there are no price controls, no ceiling on premiums, and while some state insurance commissioners have managed to mitigate the increases, not all states have that kind of oversight.

    Worse, while premiums are going up, coverage is going down; we're spending more and getting less, which is not my idea of reform that works.

    I'm glad for those who have been helped, but the help they've gotten could also have been attained without the windfall to the health insurance industry - in much the same way that unemployment insurance could have been extended without having to concede on tax cuts for the wealthy.

    For a president who's slogan was "Yes, We Can," we sure have gotten a lot of "Well, this is the best we could do - suck it up and quit complaining."

    Parent

    Well (none / 0) (#108)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 04:25:56 PM EST
    I do not think that healthcare reform in the way that you imagine was possible.  That simple.

    You obviously disagree, but it should explain to you why I view the world in the way that I do.


    Parent

    Good for him (5.00 / 1) (#129)
    by Yman on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 08:14:10 PM EST
    My brother has healthcare today that he would not have had without HCR.

    The change was real and is irrefutable.

    So is the fact that Obamacare does virtually nothing to contain costs for most people, which means that millions more Americans will not be able to afford the insurance.  Like the record number of uninsured more than 50 million and growing after Obamacare passed.  But, hey ...

    ... at least your brother has coverage.

    Parent

    Without knowing (none / 0) (#71)
    by jeffinalabama on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:14:35 PM EST
    your brothers' situation, all I can say is that one datum point is called an anecdote. I'm glad for him that he now has insurance. Which specific part of the health insurance reform benefitted him?

    Statistics from polls indicating support for the deal at 73-27 percent doesn't tell me what questions were asked, or whether people were asked such questions as, would you prefer no deal, a deal granting tax rate continuation for those earning 100k or less, or tax rate continuation for everyone, including those making more than 100 k per year (or 250k, or 500k).

    Parent

    Can you explain how he has HC now (none / 0) (#80)
    by Buckeye on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:32:25 PM EST
    because of Obamacare?  What did the bill change that gave him something he otherwise would not have had?  Not all of Obamacare has kicked in yet.

    Parent
    My brother (none / 0) (#107)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 04:22:11 PM EST
    Is a recent college graduate with decent grades, a load of student debt and a low paying job.  He has a condition that requires him to consume about $500 in prescription drugs each month and cannot function without them.  He is just barely over the medicaid income limits of his state.

    Without the provision extending the coverage of dependents, he could not stay on the family policy and he'd be paying for those drugs out of his own pocket.  

    Instead of a completely unobtainable $500 per month, he spends a very reasonable $40 per month and his mother continues to pay a fairly reasonable premium.

    That's a real life fact pattern.  

    If you don't think HCR is helping real people in real need in thousands of ways, you aren't looking very hard.

    Parent

    If he has to go on individual insurance (5.00 / 2) (#111)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 04:34:38 PM EST
    he may then be screwed.

    My insurance, the best prescription drug insurance that can be had on the individual market in my state has a $500 deductible and pays 50% of drugs to a $2500/yr maximum.

    And the "affordable care act" isn't going to do anything at all to change that. There is no mandate regarding what deductibles, premiums, or copays will be.  And with the president's continuation of the Bush tax cuts, I think subsidies will be nothing but a dream in a few years.  The only thing that may have helped is single payer.  We'll never get that.  We had a chance to get part way there.  Obama caved.

    Your brother is lucky, until he achieves the age of 26.  At that point, he's screwed unless he can find a job that will cover him.  

    And that's a real life fact pattern
    .

    Parent

    HCR (none / 0) (#114)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 04:59:39 PM EST
    is not the final solution.  It is one massive step down the right path.

    I don't think those of us who defend it see it as the be all/end all.

    That was never going to be possible.  Obama's job was to move the ball forward and he did in a big way.

    If the timing works out my brother will be a prime target for one of the new exchanges. We'll see how it all works.

    Parent

    I thought the age change might (none / 0) (#109)
    by jeffinalabama on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 04:27:47 PM EST
    have something to do with it. Glad he's covered. I think other approaches to providing healthcare would have been better.

    But when someone gets an immediate benefit, they are likely to support the program, and the admin that provided it.

    My parents and grandparents revered FDR for saving them from communism or fascism or starvation. No amount of argument would have changed their views.

    Parent

    We got Romneycare. Did we gain (none / 0) (#78)
    by Buckeye on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:29:06 PM EST
    something, perhaps.  If it fails, the Repubs could say "see, we told you this would not work, now forget the Liberal version of HCR and try the conservative one."  We will see.

    Parent
    98% (none / 0) (#86)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:37:31 PM EST
    What is the number of people in Massachusetts with healthcare coverage Alex?

    Romneycare is not perfect, but it is better than the status quo.  

    Much better.

    And Obamacare (I think he should be proud to name it after himself) is far better than that.

    Parent

    Working in a state vs. nationally is a big (none / 0) (#89)
    by Buckeye on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:45:29 PM EST
    difference.  But you know what, I hope you are right.  I hope we get to 98% with the cost curve bending downward without a single payer system to do it.

    I would eat my crow with barbeque sauce if it means tens of millions of people get healthcare and the cost our economy absorbs from HC drops substantially.  We will see.  

    Parent

    Are you kidding? (none / 0) (#115)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 05:01:20 PM EST
    Obamacare is a CONSERVATIVE version of Romneycare. It's one of the reasons why the MA senate seat went R.

    Good grief. Even Romneycare has a public option. Obamacare is not going to get anywhere near the coverage Romneycare gets. It's kind of sad to say that Mitt Romney produced a more liberal healthcare model than Obama did.

    Parent

    That makes me (none / 0) (#41)
    by lilburro on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:06:00 PM EST
    fairly optimistic.  I say he doesn't cave on federal spending, but runs on The Deal as a whole (tax cuts, no slashed spending) in 2012, which means an extension of tax cuts for the rich since they "work."  Not the worst case scenario, but not the best.

    The reason I think this will work is because I think Obama doesn't have a coherent economic vision.  Some call this "pragmatism."

    Parent

    The president who created the (5.00 / 2) (#44)
    by Anne on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:13:32 PM EST
    Deficit Commission, and whose vice president has just named Bruce Reed as his Chief of Staff:

    Vice President Joe Biden announced today that Bruce Reed will succeed Ron Klain in the role of Chief of Staff for the Office of the Vice President. Mr. Reed has most recently worked for the Administration as Executive Director of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, also known as the Bowles-Simpson Commission.

    has, I believe, every intention of slashing spending; to believe otherwise, in the face of both rhetoric and action, is to be in an extreme state of denial.


    Parent

    Cuts by the new Repbulican congress (none / 0) (#37)
    by MO Blue on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:51:58 PM EST
    approved by a Democratic Senate and signed into law by a Democratic president.

     

    Parent

    BTD (none / 0) (#21)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:06:11 PM EST
    Again, the polls say otherwise.

    Also, the urge for bipartisan agreement is reaching a peak (due in no small part to the tragedy in AZ).

    I believe Obama will have far more leverage than you think and your pronouncements are very premature. From the mid-terms to today, he has had an incredibly effective run that has reestablished him.  

    I think you continue to underestimate his political capabilities.  He is now in the position that plays to all of his strengths.

    Parent

    Obama will be tough to beat for a (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by Buckeye on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 01:51:22 PM EST
    variety of reasons.  That does not justify The Deal as a good one either politically or economically.  If he wins reelection, and I believe he will, it will be in spite of The Deal not because of it.

    Parent
    Disagree he will be tough to beat (5.00 / 1) (#97)
    by smott on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:57:36 PM EST
    ...if the economy continues to tank.

    He will be very vulnerable in that case, unless the nom is Palin I suppose....

    Parent

    I have to agree with you (5.00 / 3) (#45)
    by Yman on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:13:40 PM EST
    He is now in the position that plays to all of his strengths.

    Caving, breaking campaign promises, and looking out for his own interests ...

    He's got 'em all covered.

    Parent

    Nothing to add (none / 0) (#4)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 11:56:16 AM EST
    Other than frustration I suppose....how can this many wrong economic choices have been made and made and made one right after the other when we live in this time in the midst of this crisis situation?

    I think you are missing a fact (none / 0) (#13)
    by me only on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 12:30:38 PM EST
    the UI ran out in December.  While you might get a better deal next month, that really doesn't help people back in December.

    Once you are down the path of "caring for people" and villifying the opposition for not caring for people, you really run into problems when people's benefits run out just as Christmas and winter take hold.  Time ain't on your side.

    I would have put the UI up for the vote (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 12:50:30 PM EST
    alone.  That was proposed too by many.

    Parent
    I mean....they repealed DADT (none / 0) (#17)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 12:55:15 PM EST
    WERE they really going to screw over the unemployed by flexing firm Conservatism?

    Parent
    Exactly (none / 0) (#62)
    by smott on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:56:19 PM EST
    WHy, BTD, do you believe the UI had much to do with "The Deal"?

    UIs pass all  the time, there seemed really minimal bargaining or chips needed to be handed over to achieve UI. But that's what O did, big time.

    I agree with MT - put it on the table and make the GOP vote it down.

    Nut Up or Shut Up, in other words.


    Parent

    No (none / 0) (#46)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:23:08 PM EST
    It is not the same as the great depression.  From the new securities instruments at the root of this, to the simultaneous shift from a manufacturing to a technology economy, to the presence of a government run juggernaut with the ability to acquire our debt and make strategic investments in a way no modern democracy could, to the home ownership bubble simultaneously impacting thousands, the number of factors separating this from every other depression/recession number in the dozens or even hundreds.

    But that's not surprising. Every recession/depression is unique and attempts to draw direct parallels almost always fail.

    It's like saying that your kids are identical just because they came from the same parents.  Yes there are massive similarities but you are always fundamentally talking about two different people and what works for one kid won't always work for another kid, no matter how much they share their mother's freckles or father's eyes.

    Dang (none / 0) (#69)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:10:39 PM EST
    Where are my Obama people at?  

    I am a one man commenting army and all but does everyone here really think Obama is that evil?  Is that really where the readers of liberal blogs/political junkies like us are.

    I thought there were more of me's out there.

    I think you will find (5.00 / 4) (#70)
    by andgarden on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:13:34 PM EST
    that most people commenting here voted for Obama in November 2008, and (whatever they say now) will likely do so again in 2012. What you won't find much of here is deference to his political judgement. Most of us really don't think much of it. And when poor political judgement puts forward obviously bad policy, it just don't get a good reception here.  

    Parent
    Fair Enough (none / 0) (#81)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:33:03 PM EST
    The interesting issue from my perspective is that the numbers tell us that among liberals, I am in the majority and the majority here (liberals who grade Obama negatively) are in the minority in terms of evaluating Obama and his performance on HCR, Taxes, etc.

    TalkLeft is an old and (IMHO) respected liberal site that has been around a long, long time. I read it for years before ever posting, and I've always thought that there was a silent majority that liked reading the posts, fall into the same thinking that I do on issues, but don't really comment.  

    Be interesting to find out if that is true, but I guess we'll never know.

    Parent

    There's a fallacy in your thinking (5.00 / 1) (#85)
    by andgarden on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:37:02 PM EST
    that just screams out for comment. People who read blogs self-select and self-sort. You should not expect any particular blog's readership demographics to reflect the population at large (or liberals at large, for that matter).

    If I went to a black blog, for example, and expressed surprise that white commenters were not in the majority, I assume that laughter would ensue. So too a gay blog.

    Parent

    Another good point (5.00 / 1) (#88)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:41:36 PM EST
    assuming that TalkLeft touted itself as a blog of the further left wing of the party.  I've always viewed it as a bit more mainstream liberal but maybe I was wrong.

    It's always been a good barometer of progressive beliefs and interests.  I now tend to think that moderates of all sides just don't comment as much.

    Parent

    If I had to guess (5.00 / 1) (#98)
    by lilburro on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 04:02:09 PM EST
    I would say TL commenters skew a little older than those at many liberal hubs (DailyKos, for example).  Comments are moderated and are deleted if off-topic, which makes it different from a lot of other blogs, a little less snarky on the whole.  It's a blog run by lawyers so it can end up being pretty argumentative ;)  I would say Jeralyn's views on criminal justice issues and civil liberties would be considered by most to be very liberal.  

    I guess it depends on what blogs you are comparing TL to.

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    ABG, I can't speak for anyone else, (5.00 / 6) (#100)
    by jeffinalabama on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 04:04:47 PM EST
    but I'm not a progressive. I'm a dyed in the wool New Deal/Fair Deal/Great Society liberal. Strong on sensible defense, stronger on social and economic justice.

    The political use of 'progressive' puts a bilious taste in my mouth.

    I forget who wrote it, but I think progressive is just another Whole Foods brand name, just like the eight dollar 'organically grown' coffee. In my travels, I've seen Thiodan sprayed on these 'organic' crops... 'organic' must mean 'organic chemistry.'

    I'm in academe now, but I am contemptuous of the 'creative class' that makes up much of the 'progressive' movement.

    There's no foundation to 'progressive.' It's too textual, no beginning point.

    Just my .02. I'm sure most people's mileage varies!

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    I agree (5.00 / 1) (#116)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 05:04:22 PM EST
    with you completely. The whole "progressive" thing really means nothing other than what Obama wants. If Obama wants to cut SS, then cutting SS is now "progressive". Progressives stand for nothing that I've seen.

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    You can speak for me (none / 0) (#106)
    by sj on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 04:15:56 PM EST
    Mainstream liberal (5.00 / 2) (#113)
    by Coral on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 04:41:37 PM EST
    hmm....

    This blog was a place that many of us who weren't gung ho for Obama during the primaries gravitated to. So we were a bit earlier to start criticizing his policies after he won the general election.

    I really like Obama's public persona. His speech at the Memorial Service in Tuscon was masterful.

    However, I am deeply critical of his economic policies and his negotiating abilities.

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    He did give a great speech in Tuscon (none / 0) (#125)
    by jeffinalabama on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 06:40:03 PM EST
    Also (5.00 / 2) (#96)
    by jbindc on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:57:35 PM EST
    Liberals, unlike conservatives, come in a whole array of "colors".  Some are liberal on many issues, and some on a few, and more moderate on the rest.  I would also argue that many, if not most "liberals" (as a whole) are not really that happy with Obama, but it's a matter of a) supporting him and b)having the feeling that "he's better than McCain would have been".  I doubt you will find a majority of liberals that are actually excited and enthusiastic about Obama.

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    When people are told they are voting for (5.00 / 2) (#93)
    by Buckeye on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:50:20 PM EST
    change but then get continuity in a large number of areas, that will happen.

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    Well by definition (none / 0) (#117)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 05:05:36 PM EST
    there is going to continuity somewhere, right?  Does change mean "the opposite of Bush on every single point"?

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    What's (5.00 / 2) (#118)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 05:07:23 PM EST
    insane is who in their right mind would want to continue the policies of a president reviled by 2/3 of the country?

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    I assume you know (5.00 / 1) (#119)
    by andgarden on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 05:08:22 PM EST
    that we could get into specifics. The "deal" has to be at the very top of the list.

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    Live by the sword (5.00 / 1) (#130)
    by Yman on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 08:22:18 PM EST
    That's sort of the problem with vague campaign slogans like "Hope" and "Change".  The people who buy into them will define them the way they want.  Good for getting elected, ...

    ... not so much afterward.

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    And not just (none / 0) (#120)
    by jbindc on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 05:26:56 PM EST
    Minor stuff - detention, drone strikes, DOMA, etc.

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    hi? (5.00 / 2) (#112)
    by CST on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 04:35:58 PM EST
    hahaha.

    I feel for you, I really do.  I was a rather lone voice in the wilderness here in 2008 as I actually supported Obama in the gasp primaries.

    But I'm also aware that "the man" is still "the man" - no matter who is in power.  And you always gotta fight against "the man" for what you really want :)

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    Not evil. (5.00 / 5) (#123)
    by Dr Molly on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 06:34:04 PM EST
    does everyone here really think Obama is that evil?

    But, yes, a massive disappointment.

    Massively disappointed at the squandered opportunity to actually get some things done that would really affect people's lives for the better.

    More than that, it's a massive disappointment how he has somehow transformed whatever was left of 'the left' in this country into going along with  regressive policies on everything from taxation to the environment to futile war to views on 'entitlements' etc. Somehow, his presidency has ended up legitimizing right-wing policies that used to be fought against by the left.

    It is all just very sad for this country.

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    Under the bus (none / 0) (#94)
    by smott on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 03:51:14 PM EST
    ...for the most part.
    Such as me who voted for him in 2008.

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    The tax deal did it for me (none / 0) (#121)
    by Raskolnikov on Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 05:39:11 PM EST
    I was never a die-hard Obama supporter but I will vote for him in 2012 for the court appointments alone.  Gay rights are an issue I care passionately about so for that reason alone the Democratic party won't lose my vote but that, to be childish about it, f*cking sucks that that's all I get for my vote.  Some satisfaction on social issues (slowly moving forward like the molasses of public opinion) coupled with an embrace of Republican tax policy which delegitimizes the role of government as an instrument for economic prosperity is not in my opinion a fair trade off.  

    Ten years from now not supporting gay rights is going to be a fringe position regardless of the politicians in charge, but tax policy is now cemented.

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