How Dems Can Win The Fight For Middle Class Tax Cuts

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Other Politics
Posted on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 12:15:07 PM EST
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Josh Marshall:

Legislation and politics aren't two separate worlds. Each feeds off each other, as the Democrats learned to their profound discomfiture during the Health Care Reform debate last year. Especially on the cusp of an election, any inability to grasp this can and usually is fatal. Reasoning that the views of the GOP leadership in the House are secondary because the bill has to get through the Senate only makes sense if your field of vision doesn't extend more than half a mile out of your Senate office.

[. . .] Boehner's comments give the president the opportunity to do all three. And with the legislative leadership on the Hill seemingly hapless, it looks like it will come down to the President and how he plays his cards over the next 48 hours. The logical move for the White House is to jump on Boehner's opening and push for an extension of the Bush tax cuts for incomes under $250,000 and push for a vote before the election. [. . .] If Boehner and some Republicans vote for the sub-250k bill in the House, great. It allows the president to play them off Republicans in the Senate. If no Republicans vote for it in the House, great. It gives the Democrats a clearer position to run on. [. . ] In all of this, the same leverage that is pushing for good policy is working for good politics. And the two reinforce each other.

Handled well, this train of events will inevitably force a division between Republicans who are ideologically committed to the upper income tax cuts and those who just want to avoid being on the wrong side of an issue and get on with getting to November 2nd so they can win a ton of seats in Congress. But that division itself will throw the Republicans off balance, perhaps to a significant degree. And what if the President says to make the upper income cuts the referendum point of the election and Republicans still have a great election night? Again, really not something the President and the Democrats have much reason to worry over since the crux of the issue is that once the cuts for everyone under $250,000 are locked in, the politics of going to the mat with the president solely over tax cuts for extremely wealthy people will be toxic.

What Josh Marshall said.

Speaking for me only

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How Dems Can Win The Fight For Middle Class Tax Cuts | 18 comments (18 topical)

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Sounds great (5.00 / 3) (#1)
by Militarytracy on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 12:33:03 PM EST

Utterly spiffy, and you and Josh agree on how the X's and O's can be played to score. That is cool. It is really hard though to have any faith that this will be played in a way that will lead to something winning for Democrats. Nobody but nobody phucks Democrats better than Obama does. I have so little faith :( It is really sad. No excitement here, not even optimism yet.

Or everyone votes for it (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by republicratitarian on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 12:36:12 PM EST

and both sides claim a bipartisan bill. Republicans would be crazy to vote against it, especially this close to November.

Unless the Dems give us a 2000 page "tax relief" bill that does way more than advertised. They wouldn't do that would they?

Great (5.00 / 1) (#5)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 12:37:24 PM EST

Then good policy is enacted. I win!


: Agreed. (5.00 / 1) (#6)
by republicratitarian on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 12:37:57 PM EST

But, then there's this: (5.00 / 1) (#10)
by Anne on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 01:00:40 PM EST

from ABC News:

Senate Republicans will oppose any effort to renew soon-to-expire Bush administration tax cuts if upper income taxpayers are excluded from the reductions.
A spokesman for Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell says the Kentucky Republican has pledges from every Senate Republican to filibuster President Barack Obama's plan to allow the top income tax rate to rise back to almost 40 percent on family or small business income over $250,000.
If Republicans stand together, that would deny Democrats the 60 votes they would need to push the measure through the Senate.

which makes me wonder if the GOP isn't playing a little 11-dimensional chess of their own: let Boehner be the reasonable Republican in the House, who gets his caucus to go along with it, because the Senate GOP, with the assistance of some Blue Dogs and the odious Lieberman, will kill it - or ensure that it has to be across-the-board.

We will get our middle-class tax cuts, but the rich will get theirs, too - which I always believed was how this would play out.

Does Obama get to take credit for the rich getting a multi-billion dollar tax cut, too?

: Boehner wouldn't get the credit because (none / 0) (#13)
by republicratitarian on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 01:45:49 PM EST

all everyone would see, and rightfully so, is Republicans holding out for the rich. Even if it is just in the Senate. He would just look the least crazy, however briefly, while the Senates R's fall on their own sword.

: Ya gotta admit (none / 0) (#14)
by christinep on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 02:09:14 PM EST

Next to the surreal gubernatorial race in Colorado, it would really be amusing to watch Senate Republicans filibuster on behalf of the rich so close to an election. I'd make the popcorn, and watch it from start to finish.

Obama called this (5.00 / 1) (#12)
by Militarytracy on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 01:18:37 PM EST

"the political silly season" just now on CNN, because the small business bill is tied up in the Senate. He said if this wasn't the political silly season this bill would have a lot of bipartisan support. Really BTD, how can I have any hope this guy is going to hit anything out of the park? He isn't playing in the park, he is playing on a playground and he seems to be about four or five years old. I bet he doesn't even hate Barney yet. Our daughter had a Barney pinata at her 12th bday because all 12 year olds hate Barney. When Joshua was six he decided that he hated Barney, he said that Barney is a lie and nobody loves everybody all the time. Thinking the world works that way will just get you punched.

Alas, then G. Sargent spills the beans on WaPo (none / 0) (#2)
by BTAL on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 12:35:21 PM EST

Guess the cat is out of the bag.

They got it from me (none / 0) (#4)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 12:37:03 PM EST

I didn't get it from them.

I think you seem to not understand that.


Please don't think I'm dissing you or that it was (none / 0) (#8)
by BTAL on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 12:39:13 PM EST

not your idea.

As to the point with Sargent, putting the idea out with that unvarnished "clarity" makes it a sitting duck.


: It's smart politics (5.00 / 1) (#9)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 12:40:31 PM EST

this was my prescription (none / 0) (#7)
by cpinva on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 12:38:00 PM EST

for the health insurance reform bill. we see how well that worked out.

as tracy so astutely points out, nobody does dems better than dems do dems.

I'm all for tax cuts (none / 0) (#11)
by Slado on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 01:02:43 PM EST

but once again Obama is diluting the effectiveness of his solution for political gains.

The stimulus didn't work because it wasn't bold enough but unbold tax cuts will work?

If Obama believed in the economic power why does he feel the need to tax the rich who create the jobs?

This plays well with progressives and inside the beltway but Americans know the facts which is in a recession raising taxes won't help. They also understand the long term budget reasons for allowing them to expire.

Obama should pick a side. He's already changed his mind a couple times on this and Boehner isn't going to take the bait on fighting him on partial tax cuts so his big gamble is no gamble at all. Just more policy neutered by political indecisiveness. Something we Americans are very familiar with from this president.

: Americans know the facts (5.00 / 1) (#16)
by vicndabx on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 02:20:47 PM EST

- sure do. Rich folk w/tons of money aren't spending it and are holding out for even more while I work my fingers to the bone.

: What? (none / 0) (#17)
by lilburro on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 03:41:25 PM EST

The stimulus didn't work because it wasn't bold enough but unbold tax cuts will work?
Apples, oranges?

: Re stimulus (none / 0) (#18)
by DFLer on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 05:45:43 PM EST

Dean Baker dissects the "stimulus didn't work at all" theme according to George Will.

First, Will is anxious to tell readers that Democrats are telling the public that stimulus did not work because many think we need more stimulus. Actually, people who think we need more stimulus simply note that the stimulus was helpful, but not large enough for the task. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the stimulus added between 1.7 and 4.5 percent to GDP since its enactment (that's between $240 billion and $740 billion in additional output). It also lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.7 and 1.8 percentage points. (my emphasis)
This was not enough to fully offset the damage from the collapse of an $8 trillion housing bubble. The collapse wiped out more than $1.2 trillion in annual demand (roughly $600 billion in lost consumption and $600 billion in lost construction). By comparison, the stimulus injected about $300 billion a year into the economy in 2009 and 2010. Roughly half of this was offset by cutbacks at the state and local level. So, we were looking at a net increase government sector stimulus of $150 billion, which was being used to counteract a decline in private sector demand of $1.2 trillion.
Is anyone surprised that this was not enough? Will's conclusion that stimulus does not work is like seeing someone throw a few buckets of water on their burning house and then telling the fire department not to waste time with their hoses, because obviously water will not be effective against the fire.

The problem with class warfare for dems (none / 0) (#15)
by Slado on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 02:15:22 PM EST

is not all the dems are playing.

Because the country understands these are not tax cuts we're talking about. It's wherther or not we are going to "raise" taxes in a recession.

As Obama himself said in 2009 it's a bad idea period. The silly game of 2% is old school class warfare and it won't work. Poll all you want. Results matter and no one thinks the results will be good if you raise taxes when we're this close to a double dip.

The dems can play this silly game all they want. They are still going to be hammered in Nov.