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Understanding Politics And How To Read A Poll

The Media will tell you today that according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll, 64% of Americans support AZ SB 1070. What does this mean? I venture to say nothing. They May also tell you that 70% of Hispanics oppose the law. What does this mean. A whole hell of a lot. I discussed this earlier, but asking a question does not tell you what the political impact of the answer really is. Let's look at the poll (PDF):

Q. 11 [W]hich one of the following stories that have been covered by news organizations in the last few weeks is of most concern to you personally?

The Gulf Coast oil spill.............. 38
The attempted terrorist attack in Times Square, New York ... 31
New immigration legislation passed in Arizona ..... 19
The criminal investigation into Goldman Sachs ...................... 8
Florida Governor Charlie Crist changing parties ........................................ 1
None of these........................... 2

(Emphasis supplied.) Starting to get the picture? More . . .

11% of the total respondent in the poll are Hispanics. They were asked the following:

(ASKED OF HISPANIC/LATINOS ONLY) L1 Which party do you think would do a better job--(Read Item) the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, both about the same, or neither? (RANDOMIZE)

Protecting the interests of minorities [D +37]

Representing the opportunity to move up the economic ladder D- +11

Working for the equality of and protecting against discrimination of immigrants [D-+42]
Dealing with immigration [D-+28]

On the Arizona bill and immigration generally:

Q34 [. . .] Do you support or oppose this law?

64% of all Americans strongly support the law. 70% of Hispanics oppose, including 58% strongly opposing it. More:

Q35 How likely do you think it is that the decision in Arizona to promote strong enforcement of immigrants who are NOT in the U.S. legally will lead to discrimination of Hispanic or Latino immigrants who ARE in the U.S. legally?

66% of all Americans think this is likely. 82% of Hispanics think this is likely, with 61% thinking it is very likely.

Unfortunately the polling does not provide us with cross tabs, but I intuit that of the 19% who have followed the AZ SB 1070 issue closely, most of the 11% of the sample that are Hispanics are in that group. And they are the group most likely to have their political views affected by it. And who will vote for one party or other because of it.

This is how politics works - by winning votes. AZ SB 1070 is a dead political loser for the GOP. Maybe not yet in Arizona, but certainly across the country. And this will magnify as time goes by. See, e.g., Prop 187 in California.

Speaking for me only

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    I wonder if the recent uptick in polling for Dems (none / 0) (#1)
    by magster on Thu May 13, 2010 at 03:58:05 PM EST
    (e.g. Obama's favorability ratings) is due to a reaction to this bill.

    or maybe this (none / 0) (#3)
    by Capt Howdy on Thu May 13, 2010 at 04:10:26 PM EST
    Lowden losing to Harry Reid for the first time by 5 percentage points (42-37). Danny Tarkanian doing better than Lowden, tied with Reid (37-37).


    Parent
    As a bit of caution I'd like to point out (none / 0) (#16)
    by tigercourse on Thu May 13, 2010 at 07:39:53 PM EST
    that 2 weeks ago Mollohan had a poll showing him winning the primary by 9 points when he ended up losing by 12. About the only time I trust internal polls is when they say provide bad news for their own candidate.

    Parent
    I think this poll is (none / 0) (#2)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu May 13, 2010 at 04:09:56 PM EST
    actually quite flawed in its methodology.

    Consider for example the fact that while the poll claims to have 11% Hispanic representation, only 6% of the respondents self identify as Hispanic or Latino.

    Thus, the "Latino" subset of this poll probably does not represent what we would consider the "Latino" electorate.

    Which makes these number BETTER for the GOP than  I believe they actually are.

    Also, let us all now (none / 0) (#4)
    by Cream City on Thu May 13, 2010 at 04:21:35 PM EST
    take a deep breath and try to get through even saying this sentence:

    How likely do you think it is that the decision in Arizona to promote strong enforcement of immigrants who are NOT in the U.S. legally will lead to discrimination of Hispanic or Latino immigrants who ARE in the U.S. legally?

    Yikes, not even a comma to help even in saying it?  I shall not ask for volunteers to diagram it (as so few are taught today to diagram sentences:-).  But imagine trying to comprehend it and answer it, while the teevee is on and the kids are asking for something and the dog is barking . . . and maybe the telecaller has, as they say in Arizona, an "accent". . . .

    Short s-v-o sentences, please, survey designers.

    Parent

    Poll was chock full of those (none / 0) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu May 13, 2010 at 04:22:47 PM EST
    A pretty crappy poll all in all.

    Parent
    Well, the bad news obviously is .. (none / 0) (#6)
    by nyrias on Thu May 13, 2010 at 04:26:34 PM EST
    "Do you support or oppose this law?"

    "64% of all Americans strongly support the law."

    That is almost 2/3 of the sample. Despite all the bad publicity of the law on CNN, still 2/3 Americans would support it.

    That says something about the attitudes of the people here. It may not be translating into big political wins in election, but it would be dishonest not to be concerned about it.

    I think that may be asking (none / 0) (#7)
    by Cream City on Thu May 13, 2010 at 04:33:04 PM EST
    "are you worried about your job"?

    Just sayin'.

    Parent

    I agree (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by Capt Howdy on Thu May 13, 2010 at 04:39:21 PM EST
    n/t


    Parent
    46% (none / 0) (#8)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu May 13, 2010 at 04:34:16 PM EST
    In other words, the GOP.

    The rest do not care.

    Understand my point, very few who support AZ SB 1070 were EVER going to vote GOP.

    A much higher percentage who oppose it might have voted GOP but will not now after this law.

    Parent

    sure ... (none / 0) (#9)
    by nyrias on Thu May 13, 2010 at 04:35:51 PM EST
    it may not matter in teh votes much.

    But you are not concerned when 2/3 Americans "STRONGLY" support a law that can cause racial profiling?

    Parent

    Again 46% is the number (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu May 13, 2010 at 04:41:21 PM EST
    And actually my argument is that it will have a significant impact on votes, positive to Dems and negative to the GOP.

    And this will magnify over time.

    But hell, do not listen to me, ask Karl Rove.

    Parent

    didn't Karl Rove engineered (none / 0) (#12)
    by nyrias on Thu May 13, 2010 at 04:48:22 PM EST
    Bush reelection even when there was a growing opposition to the war?

    I am not like his policy position but you can't deny he got results.

    Parent

    exactly (none / 0) (#13)
    by CST on Thu May 13, 2010 at 04:51:32 PM EST
    I think the point is Karl Rove wanted to woo hispanics to the republican party.  Hence immigration reform, etc...

    Parent
    those were the good ole days (none / 0) (#14)
    by Capt Howdy on Thu May 13, 2010 at 05:03:34 PM EST
    ay?

    Parent
    No question. Amazing how the GOP (none / 0) (#15)
    by Cream City on Thu May 13, 2010 at 07:27:37 PM EST
    tosses the Hispanic voting bloc under the bus.  Dumber than Bush!  I saw recently that Bush had 70% of the Hispanic voters, apparently easy to persuade with even a modicum of respect.  But easy to turn against a party, too, as the GOP will prove.

    Parent
    maybe, maybe not. (none / 0) (#18)
    by cpinva on Fri May 14, 2010 at 01:23:35 AM EST
    you're assuming that minorities vote in the same proportion as older whites do. historically (the one exception being the 2008 election), this isn't true. you also assume that those most affected by the law might have voted GOP, absent the law, and now they won't. historically (except for FL), that also isn't true.

    the AZ GOP sees this bill as a winner for itself, at least in the short-run. the short-run is all they (and most politicians) care about. all they need do is ride this baby's wave into the 2010 mid-terms, and they retain the gov's mansion, and swallow the legislature.

    how it affects the party 5 or 10 years from now isn't on their screens at all.

    Parent

    WHY don't they ask "Do YOU Think ANY (none / 0) (#17)
    by seabos84 on Thu May 13, 2010 at 08:29:55 PM EST
    Cop Should be able to pull you over ANYTIME and DEMAND an ID or you're jailed?"

    about 40% of the population would probably shoot the phone - nevermind yell at the questioner with lots of expletive deleteds.

    just as the fascists have done a great job, for the fascists, of demonizing stuff like "liberal" and "rights" - the fascists have done a great job, for the fascists, of getting people to dislike / blame immigrants.

    is that right? NO. Is that stupid. YES.

    yawn - and that too is politics.

    the incompetents of the dim-o-crap party could try different messaging against the lying fascists, heck, they could even try to have EFFECTIVE messaging, but, then they'd stop losing all the time!

    rmm.

    The times they are a changing (none / 0) (#19)
    by mmc9431 on Fri May 14, 2010 at 08:02:53 AM EST
    A political party that feeds on spreading hate, fear and bigotry, (whether it's against Blacks, Hispanics or Gays) is doomed to fail. The demographics and attitude of the country are constantly shifting.

    Every politician should spend a Saturday afternoon at a regional shopping center in their district and do some people watching. I think they'd be amazed at what they'll see. America isn't the waspy, crispy cotten country they think it is.

    Maybe these aren't the people that show up at the town hall meetings or fund raiser but they're there and they're going to have to be reckoned with.

    History disagrees ... (none / 0) (#20)
    by nyrias on Fri May 14, 2010 at 11:34:54 AM EST
    "A political party that feeds on spreading hate, fear and bigotry, (whether it's against Blacks, Hispanics or Gays) is doomed to fail"

    Pete Wilson got re-elected on the coattails of prop 187. Bush got re-elected even with an unpopular war.

    What you say is not always true.

    Parent

    It will take time (none / 0) (#21)
    by mmc9431 on Fri May 14, 2010 at 11:53:11 AM EST
    Bush went out of his way to not tick off the Hispanic community. He actually carried more Hispanic votes than I thought would be possible for a Republican. His Texas political training served him well in that respect.

    Prop 187 and Wilson sent the party crashing in CA and they haven't recovered since.

    The other factor is that the Hispanic, black and gay population in the country is growing much faster than the white. The clock is ticking against the Republicans unless they change their tune.

    Parent

    Prop 187 .. (none / 0) (#22)
    by nyrias on Fri May 14, 2010 at 02:19:48 PM EST
    won Wilson the re-election.

    I am not agreeing with it and i am not saying it is good for the CA republicans in the long run.

    But it DID WORK as a tactic for Wilson. And i am not putting this kind of tricks beyond any other politicians.

    Parent