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The Obama Tide Does Not Lift The Dem Boat

A few days ago in a comment thread, I was discussing President Obama's skills as a politician. My argument was, and is, that President Obama is a great politicians who has not applied his political skills to helping lift the Democratic Party's political fortunes nor to promoting his policies in a substantial way. The most recent WaPo poll supports my argument.

President Obama's approval rating is at 53%. In July is was at 59%. His personal popularity has been resilient. Unfortunately it has not translated into popularity for Democrats and Obama's policies. To be fair, it's not clear that Obama is doing any worse than the average President (his numbers are comparable to President Clinton's in early 1994.) But that is the point - in my view President Obama is capable of doing much better than the average President, especially given the conditions he inherited. Politically, President Obama has severely underperformed in his first year in my view.[More...]

There is a lesson here for Democrats in Congress - you are on your own - President Obama can not deliver for you politically (unless he is on the ballot.) This is one major reason why I have some hope that progressives in the House will buck the White House on the health bill and other issues. Right now, the White House has little to offer politically.

Speaking for me only

< Plan B On The Health Bill: Progressives Should Demand More | Shooting Who In the Foot? >
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    Obami tide? (5.00 / 3) (#2)
    by Cream City on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:17:50 PM EST
    That tsunami warning was canceled.  

    We have returned to our regularly scheduled programming -- of reruns.

    Obami Tide (5.00 / 2) (#67)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 04:14:00 PM EST
    rid yourself of those spots of recalcitrant progressives in just one cycle.

    Parent
    Ha. Then (5.00 / 1) (#70)
    by Cream City on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 04:29:51 PM EST
    rinse and repeat as necessary.

    Parent
    HAHAHAHHAHAHAHA (none / 0) (#66)
    by mexboy on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 04:09:32 PM EST
    That is the funnies thing I've read in a long time!

    Parent
    I am curious BTD (5.00 / 6) (#3)
    by Buckeye on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:28:09 PM EST
    why you feel this way?  I have read several of your threads stating that Obama is a really gifted politician.  Why?  I think Obama is an extraordinary speaker, is very smart and well read, has a great deal of charm and charisma, and is impossible to dislike.  But I do not understand why so many people think he is such a skilled politician.  I am not trying to insult him, just struggling to understand why.  He essentially won an uncontested election for a State Senate seat, and then another basically uncontested election for the US senate seat in Illinois.  I did not see much of a record from these positions and his performance so far as President leaves a lot to be desired.

    I agree he had an extraordinary opportunity given the democratic majority, preliminary approval rating, and urgent need to big action.  But I saw a President with an extraordinary opportunity act very ordinary.  He is not and never will be an FDR.

    If you define pols' skills as I do (5.00 / 4) (#14)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:39:56 PM EST
    by his ability to get votes for themselves, I think it is impossible to deny that Obama is a great politician.

    What made FDR a sublime politician was his ability to get votes for himself, for his Party and support for his policies.

    Parent

    Then GWB was a great politician? (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Buckeye on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:41:37 PM EST
    Every President was a great politician?

    Parent
    I have always said so (5.00 / 2) (#31)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:14:28 PM EST
    worst President in history, but a terrific pol.

    Parent
    Okay, (none / 0) (#51)
    by Buckeye on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 02:34:37 PM EST
    but I always considered the ability to govern as part of being a great politician.

    Parent
    BTD, you can't be serious about GWB. (none / 0) (#58)
    by FoxholeAtheist on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 03:20:29 PM EST
    You define "terrific pols" as those who possess:
    an ability to get votes for themselves...

    How on earth does GW Bush even remotely meet your own limited definition of being a "terrific pol"?

    It appears you've forgotten that GW Bush DIDN'T ACTUALLY WIN THE 2000 ELECTION. By your measure, that would make him not just the "worst president in history" but also the worst pol in history.

    Parent

    Maybe Rove was the terrific pol (none / 0) (#61)
    by jondee on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 03:39:19 PM EST
    convincing 50 mil zombies to vote for GWB for was certainly some kind of feat..

    Parent
    Rove is not a "terrific pol" either... (none / 0) (#63)
    by FoxholeAtheist on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 03:47:28 PM EST
    Considering that he applied himself mightily and still couldn't muster enough GW Bush votes for a clean win in 2000.

    Parent
    THAT was the miracle... (none / 0) (#75)
    by Buckeye on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 05:15:36 PM EST
    Bush should have gotten absolutely anniliated.  He didn't.  The race was incredibly close (perhaps the closest in American history).  So close that the normal irregularities that happen in all elections but are usually too small to matter, actually mattered in that election.  Rove is an election mastermind, but GWB was not a brilliant politician.

    Parent
    Are you kidding? (none / 0) (#106)
    by FoxholeAtheist on Mon Jan 25, 2010 at 04:20:20 PM EST
    In addition to the Republican company Diebold and their tamper-prone paperless electronic voting machines, the 2000 election had a multitude of anti-Democratic "irregularities" that went far beyond "the normal irregularities that happen in all elections". That's why there were numerous legal challenges in several states, including Florida which ultimately ended up at the SCOTUS.

    SCOTUS compounded the "irregularities" when it over-ruled the Florida Supreme Court and STOPPED the Florida recount while it was still in progress, thereby awarding the Presidency to GW Bush.

    Parent

    But it's more than getting enough (5.00 / 3) (#38)
    by Anne on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:26:27 PM EST
    votes to win; it's what happens after an electoral victory that determines the extent of any politician's skill.  

    The problem with electing someone who used each elective office to begin the quest for the next one up the ladder is that he never stuck around in any one office long enough to put his record up for re-election; America elected a perpetual candidate, not a leader, not someone who understands what it means to govern.

    I think you have to look at what Obama's alleged political gifts have done for us in order to know whether he is deserving of that kind of encomium; if all his skills have been wielded in the pursuit of Obama's own interests, he is of little use to us - in fact he may be worse than useless - or to anyone else.

    Parent

    you have a higher opinion of pols (5.00 / 1) (#40)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:34:42 PM EST
    than I do.

    Their sole purpose in life is getting votes to win elections.

    What they have to do to get those votes SHOULD be up to us.

    Parent

    Perhaps not so much a higher opinion as (5.00 / 4) (#49)
    by Anne on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 02:24:07 PM EST
    a higher standard; I continue to hope that if the standard is higher, the overall quality of the politician will improve, as well.  

    Problem is that it's tough going trying to raise the standard higher than, "oh, there's a (D) after the name - great!"

    We're getting the representation we've been willing to vote/settle for; I'm getting too old to settle, I guess.

    Parent

    As always, your comment is spot on. (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by rennies on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 02:25:10 PM EST
    It amazes me that people as intelligent and politically savvy as Big Tent Democrat cannot see that Obama simply does not have the chops to lead -- which is surely the hallmark of a successful politician. All the brilliant speechmaking in the world is not going to give him the experience to lead the most complex state in the world.

    People like me, who were on to this in the primary campaign, never expected a charismatic con man to be a leader, let alone a great leader.

    Parent

    Spot on, too. That there are followers (none / 0) (#55)
    by Cream City on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 02:53:07 PM EST
    does not make someone a leader.  Just at the head of the line of one's own followers.

    Parent
    I repeat..... (none / 0) (#89)
    by NYShooter on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 08:57:20 PM EST
    He never was a leader, never aspired to be a leader; so based on his goal of being a "moderator," instead of a leader, he has succeeded.

    If the goal of a pol is to get elected, he's a winner; If it's to improve the lot of his constituents, he's a loser.

    And that's why he gave himself a B+; he was always in it for himself, and thus, he's a success.


    Parent

    And FDR's effect was felt ... (5.00 / 4) (#39)
    by Robot Porter on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:33:23 PM EST
    for a long time.  From his election in 1932 till 1968, some 36 years, Democrats only lost two Presidential elections.  Their power in congress is even more impressive, and stretched even farther.

    And FDR policies (Social Security chief among them) still help Dems win elections.

    Pundits love to talk about "political legacies", but that's a real legacy!

    Parent

    By his ability to get things done once in office (5.00 / 5) (#52)
    by esmense on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 02:35:29 PM EST
    ...not so much. I think you can argue that Bush was a gifted polician both in getting elected and in accomplishing the policy agenda of his most important constituencies.

    Obama may not really be as gifted as he has been amazingly lucky. Others have pointed out the  fortunate circumstances of his earlier elections, but he had some pretty terrific advantages in the Presidential race, too. On the one hand, his most serious competition in the primary, a woman, represented much larger, more unprecedented and scarier cultural change than the election of a man, even a black man. While, on the other hand, electing the first African American represented the inspiring fulfillment of one of the most important liberal promises of the last half century. Plus, the Democratic establishment was willing to indulge in some some pretty heavy handed manipulations to ensure that the woman didn't get the nomination.

    In the general, he reaped the benefit of a near collapse of the economy and, of course, of not being the standard bearer for the party held responsible for that economic mess -- but instead, a member of the party that had overseen one of the most prosperous periods in our recent history.

    Perhaps Obama will win a second term -- but he may have to work much harder than he has in the past to earn that win. He will have to run on accomplishments, not just who he is and what he represents historically.

    Right now the presumption that he will, of course, get a second term looks like it may turn out to be as arrogant as the expectation that any Democrat would walk away with "Kennedy's seat."

    Parent

    Yep (5.00 / 2) (#77)
    by Buckeye on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 05:24:20 PM EST
    Obama won uncontested elections in Illinois and beat someone in the primary that was up against a great deal of sexism as well as the establishment that did not want her to win.  In the election against McCain, Obama was losing an election that just about anyone should win easily 4 weeks before election day.  The market crashed, everyone saw their 401Ks drop 40%-50%, and everyone was worried about the economy slipping into another great depression.  His opponent, McCain, said the economy was not his strong suit and that the fundamentals were strong.  In spite of that, as well as the most unpopular President in American history as the incumbent, an unpopular war, etc. Obama only got 53% of the popular vote.  McCain won 22 states, lost 2 by less than 1%, and another 2 by less than 3%.  Hardly a blowout in an election that should have been a blowout.  

    And now, with a filibuster proof democratic causus in the senate, an 81 (?) seat majority in the house, and an average approval rating in the 60s, the policy is less than stellar.

    Parent

    I made an account just to (5.00 / 5) (#57)
    by observed on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 02:57:48 PM EST
    respond to this point. No, really.
    Mostly I like to observe; also, I find that commenting on blogs tends to suck up too much time. Lastly, I'm not following news very closely these days, so I prefer to read what other people are saying.
    However, since your definition of a good politician seems to be linked to one of your few bad calls (supporting Obama and your reasons given), I'd like to take issue with it.

    To wit,  I don't think your definition of "good politician" agrees with common usage. Beyond winning elections,  a good politician should be able to move opinion on policy matters, both in official dealings as legislator or executive, and (especially for the President) in his message to the public. Those are skills separate from the "stateman" set of skills which you allude to: a statesmen is someone who rises about the political realities to put his efforts into the right policy, even at a political cost.
    Bush was no statesman, but he certainly excelled at making Congress bend to his will, and convincing the public  of the need for the war on terror and war on Iraq.

    Isn't defining a politician's skills only in terms of winning elections similar to the practice of evaluating corporate CEO's only in terms of the present stock valuation? By that measure, Chainsaw Al Dunlop was a great CEO; in fact, he ran company after company into the ground. Wasn't it relevant that Obama did NOT have a track record of leading on legislation (phony resume building by his IL Senate colleaugues doesn't count)? If Obama is running the Dem name into the ground, he is a very limited politician indeed.
    And what about his speeches? I would say, compared to Bush's speeches, they are terrible POLITICAL failures. Sure, you ground your teeth  listening to Bush, but he did move opinion on the issues. I can't name one issue where Obama has moved public opinion by his speeches. All he does is hem and haw and say how many difficult choices there are. How about making a choice and standing for it? Would that be too difficult?

    Anyway, I just wrote this comment because I find your definition unconvincing as well as singular. If it really is a private definition, you ought to reconsider it.

    Parent

    Well said (none / 0) (#82)
    by gyrfalcon on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 06:05:14 PM EST
    Glad you came out of lurker mode.

    Parent
    I agree with Buckeye (5.00 / 1) (#68)
    by mexboy on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 04:20:48 PM EST
    I think Obama is charismatic, good-looking (that helps a lot in our culture), intelligent, vibrant an excellent reader, but I don't see the skill.

    There are many reasons the electorate voted for him. They hate the Clintons, we were ready for a black president, and I say that knowing people might accuse me of being racist, but I do think it helped. We as a culture want to demonstrate we have moved beyond our racist past and it benefits him. He was also an blank slate and the media were unabashedly bias in his favor. These things have nothing to do with his skill, it has to do with being at the right time at the right place.

    If it was skill he would have used it to move the Democratic agenda forward. Unless BTD thinks he is skilled buy unmotivated.
     

    Parent

    I don't think Obama cares about (5.00 / 1) (#69)
    by observed on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 04:27:53 PM EST
    domestic policy. Foreign policy, very much so, but I can't think of a detail about domestic policy that has visibly mattered to him.
    I could be mistaken, but I think  he sounds more involved and authoritative when he speaks about foreign policy.

    Excise tax vs. public option was really a big deal, but Obama wouldn't weigh in strongly for one or the other. It was the  same with the stimulus package---he only cared about getting a bill passed, not so much what was in it.
    And I would say he shows a lack  of political skill here, because I think it is apparent to voters that he doesn't care about them.


    Parent

    The electorate "hates the Clintons"? (none / 0) (#83)
    by gyrfalcon on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 06:06:32 PM EST
    Guess we've got another visitor from Pluto on the site again.

    Parent
    What's with the dismissive tone? (none / 0) (#105)
    by mexboy on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 09:01:49 PM EST
    I guess it is a lot easier to be condescending and turn me into a literal alien from another planet than to post an intelligent rebuttal to my post.

    Did it make you feel superior?

    Parent

    i would submit (3.83 / 6) (#26)
    by cpinva on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:06:34 PM EST
    that you are seriously mistaken:

    by his ability to get votes for themselves, I think it is impossible to deny that Obama is a great politician.

    obama is, at best, a mediocre politician. frankly, he has delusions of mediocrity as a public speaker. go back and watch film of kennedy's speeches, contrast and compare. kennedy had a personal dynamic not seen since. clinton came close on occasion, when he really let go, but still not on par with kennedy.

    having said that is not say that obama is a bad speaker, just lacking the magnetism that a truly great public speaker has.

    if you take out the AA votes (pretty much a given), and other minority votes, who voted for him solely because of his race (yes, yes, i know, votes are votes, regardless of the reason), he really didn't do all that well in the general election.

    to address the "but votes are votes, regardless of the reason" issue: those were votes (AA's & other minorities) he didn't really need to work for, they were pretty much a given. the surprise would have been him not getting them.

    he's an "ok" politician, and that "okness" is what we're now witness to, in his handling of the health reform bill, among other things.

    a truly adroit politician would have had this done and gone, with republican carcasses scattered about the halls of congress by now. nelson and lieberman would have been begging to be let out of their respective gym lockers.

    Parent

    What? (5.00 / 1) (#86)
    by Spamlet on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 07:26:23 PM EST
    if you take out the AA votes (pretty much a given), and other minority votes, who voted for him solely because of his race . . . he really didn't do all that well in the general election. . . . those were votes (AA's & other minorities) he didn't really need to work for, they were pretty much a given.

    So Obama only had to "work for" white people's votes, since all minorities think and vote alike. That would be a good reason to "take out" this portion of Obama's votes in the general election.

    /s

    Parent

    if you truly don't believe (1.50 / 2) (#88)
    by cpinva on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 08:43:01 PM EST
    that 99.99% of the AA votes (and lots of other minorities) were a given for obama (much like 99.99% of irish/catholic votes were for kennedy), then you have no business opining here, you're intellectually bereft.

    So Obama only had to "work for" white people's votes, since all minorities think and vote alike. That would be a good reason to "take out" this portion of Obama's votes in the general election

    the truth (whether you like it or not) is that the AA community was nearly giddy with excitement, and would have crawled to their respective polling places, if necessary, to vote.

    i never said

    all minorities think and vote alike.
    you did. i don't think they are a monolithic voting bloc, ordinarily (not that that's necessarily a bad thing, if it serves their purposes), but in the case of obama, they were.

    you can deny that reality all you like, if it makes you feel superior. however, the reality (not unlike harry reid's comments) still exists.

    Parent

    Wait a minute (5.00 / 1) (#95)
    by nycstray on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 05:59:16 AM EST
    wasn't the AA vote split in the very beginning until the racist cards started flying? And wasn't Hillary also doing better with Hispanics?

    Parent
    Can we apply this to all (5.00 / 2) (#99)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 10:31:18 AM EST
    Dem's or only black ones- because from what I've seen Dem's have gotten at least 85% of the African-American vote in every election for more than a generation. Seriously, this is such a stupid meme, its hard to even address. White Folks- the vote's that really count!

    Parent
    That may be true (none / 0) (#93)
    by Spamlet on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 11:41:41 PM EST
    99.99% of the AA votes (and lots of other minorities) were a given for obama (much like 99.99% of irish/catholic votes were for kennedy)

    But to "take out" these votes in this isolated way, when you're not also "taking out" the white college boys for Obama (or the diehard Republicans for McCain, for that matter), or the votes of other blocs whose support a candidate doesn't really have to "work for," strikes me as a curious operation, to say the least. As you yourself said (but appear to believe only selectively), "votes are votes, regardless of the reason."

    Thought experiment:

    If you take out the votes of women (pretty much a given), who voted for Hillary solely because of her gender, Hillary really didn't do all that well in the primaries. . . . Those were votes she didn't really need to work for, they were pretty much a given.

    See what I mean? (Maybe not.)

    Parent

    Yes (5.00 / 3) (#98)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 10:29:07 AM EST
    and if you take out minority votes no Dem has won the presidency since LBJ in 1964.

    Parent
    I agree. (none / 0) (#30)
    by sarcastic unnamed one on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:12:55 PM EST
    I find him to be very professorial in his speechifying, ie., not at all inspiring.

    Mediocre at best.

    Parent

    It is all reading. (none / 0) (#41)
    by robert72 on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:35:18 PM EST
    He's a good reader, however, his head turning back and forth from side to side is just unbearably annoying, and without the teleprompter he isn't even adequate. He doesn't ever seem to have a thorough knowledge and understanding of the issues - either that or he doesn't share this. It is all vague and open to interpretation. Yes, he does sound professorial and his speeches sound really good, but when you listen carefully he says very little other than what is expected.
    The only time he has passion and seems dynamically interested is when he is talking about himself.

    Parent
    after reading this (none / 0) (#78)
    by addy on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 05:39:53 PM EST
    "a truly adroit politician would have had this done and gone, with republican carcasses scattered about the halls of congress by now. nelson and lieberman would have been begging to be let out of their respective gym lockers."
    while not logged in, I laughed so hard it forced me to log in just to thank you. Thank you for brightening my day!

    Parent
    And was your tepid support for Obama before (none / 0) (#15)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:41:34 PM EST
    he was elected based on your conviction he exhibit the characteristics set forth in your second paragraph?

    Parent
    that he could (none / 0) (#28)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:11:48 PM EST
    exhibit them.

    Parent
    Not a chance that we'll (5.00 / 3) (#17)
    by jondee on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:42:01 PM EST
    EVER get an FDR-like president without radical campaign finance reform and a radical reassessment of our national priorities.

    As things stand now, the game is rigged to keep would-be FDRs as far from the reins of power as possible. And no amount of nostalgic wishful thinking is going to change that.

    Parent

    Well-stated. Hope you receive (none / 0) (#6)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:31:30 PM EST
    a detailed reply.

    Parent
    Obama The Non Politician (none / 0) (#91)
    by norris morris on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 10:49:09 PM EST
    Buckeye,
    I agree that Obama is a gifted speaker. Sometimes.

    He can read the teleprompter and drone on, too.

    But most importantly your point is well stated in that Obama has underperformed.  But I doubt that he can perform very differently as he is cool,
    hesitant, and quite detached.

    He is not a clever politician and this was obvious to me within his first 6 months in office.

    After the two Copenhagen bombs, his hesitancy whether calculated or otherwise regarding  Healthcare Reform  and the public option left all of us with the same impression?

    Who was Obama?  And where was Obama? When we knew he had compromised early on in the backrooms with BigPharma's chief lobbyist Bill Tauzin and gave away the store brfore the door had even opened, this did not encourage trust.

    This was not a successful strategy at the start of the Healthcare debate, nor was Obama's staying in the wings for political cover good politics either.

    Obama has not been a leader in the arena where governance and clarity are vitally important.

    Without total engagement other than speechifying, I believe Obama does not posses the strength and political courage necessary to guide and lead his party.  The unspeakable clumsiness and crude politics played out in the Senate on Healthcare without even an illusion of clarity or leadership was disheartenng.

    What's wrong? A political leader who shies away from politics.

    Parent

    Obama The Non Politician (none / 0) (#92)
    by norris morris on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 10:50:30 PM EST
    Buckeye,
    I agree that Obama is a gifted speaker. Sometimes.

    He can read the teleprompter and drone on, too.

    But most importantly your point is well stated in that Obama has underperformed.  But I doubt that he can perform very differently as he is cool,
    hesitant, and quite detached.

    He is not a clever politician and this was obvious to me within his first 6 months in office.

    After the two Copenhagen bombs, his hesitancy whether calculated or otherwise regarding  Healthcare Reform  and the public option left all of us with the same impression?

    Who was Obama?  And where was Obama? When we knew he had compromised early on in the backrooms with BigPharma's chief lobbyist Bill Tauzin and gave away the store brfore the door had even opened, this did not encourage trust.

    This was not a successful strategy at the start of the Healthcare debate, nor was Obama's staying in the wings for political cover good politics either.

    Obama has not been a leader in the arena where governance and clarity are vitally important.

    Without total engagement other than speechifying, I believe Obama does not posses the strength and political courage necessary to guide and lead his party.  The unspeakable clumsiness and crude politics played out in the Senate on Healthcare without even an illusion of clarity or leadership was disheartenng.

    What's wrong? A political leader who shies away from politics.

    Parent

    Well (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:31:56 PM EST
    I'm still not seeing the skilled politician. Skilled politicians do better than he has done. Obama succeeds as a motivational speaker/cult leader type figure. Governance isn't his thing and I don't see him helping the party in 2012 either and more than likely being a drag unless he is able to significantly change things.

    Although, per DK follow-up poll, Coakley (none / 0) (#9)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:33:44 PM EST
    and Brown are now tied.

    Parent
    Mr. Obama does seem (none / 0) (#22)
    by KeysDan on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:56:19 PM EST
    to have a mix of good skills and good luck.  Maybe, the later will hold up for the Coakley race.

    Parent
    I dont (none / 0) (#25)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:03:57 PM EST
    knwo about the particular poll that you are speaking of but DK polls tend to be skewed 5 pts in the favor of the Dem or that's been their history.

    Parent
    Link: (none / 0) (#27)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:07:20 PM EST
    Oh (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:21:09 PM EST
    it's a reasearch 2000 so that means Coakley is behind by about five pts. Even that poll shows Brown surging 7 pts since the last poll they took.

    Parent
    Coakely 5 pts behind may be an understatement...

    Parent
    Brown is ahead (5.00 / 1) (#84)
    by gyrfalcon on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 06:08:03 PM EST
    as of last night by double digits and as many as 20 points in the "bellweather" towns Suffolk University polls.

    I think Martha's toast.

    Parent

    really sounds exaggerated (none / 0) (#87)
    by noholib on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 07:39:50 PM EST
    I have no empirical proof whatsoever, but that sounds really exaggerated to me.  Whatever happens tomorrow, I expect it will be close and not a blowout.

    Parent
    Read the post (none / 0) (#94)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 12:04:49 AM EST
    It's not their prediction for the overall vote count, just the current state of things in Fitchburg, Andover and I forget the other town.

    I think Martha is toast.

    Parent

    So basically (none / 0) (#100)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 10:33:20 AM EST
    what you're saying is that Obama's Bill "lost Congress for the first time in a generation" Clinton level now, but could fall to Carter level bad?

    Parent
    wrong theory of change? (5.00 / 9) (#21)
    by souvarine on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:55:42 PM EST
    Perhaps your own theory of change was wrong? Your support for Obama in the primaries was predicated on the theory that his communications skills, or at least his ability to manipulate the media, would make him more successful electorally and politically.

    It may be that media manipulation is not that important, and the opinions of the village don't really matter. Maybe a deep grasp of policy and the courage to honestly engage the people about the choices we face are the skills required to changing the country. Maybe good policy is good politics.


    Just finished an interesting book that (5.00 / 4) (#59)
    by esmense on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 03:26:45 PM EST
    among other things researched the media coverage of 5 female presidential candidates (did not include Hillary Clinton's campaign although the findings about media coverage were also borne out in her campaign), compared to male candidates (in the same race) with similar levels of experience and establishment and financial support.

    The interesting thing is this; female candidates at all levels of office get less media coverage, and less serious (issues related) coverage than comparable male candidates. Yet, despite this consistent disadvantage, when well-qualified and party-supported female candidates do run, they are just as likely to win. So the negative media environment that they encounter is not as important in defeating women candidates as it is in discouraging them from even running (and, I would suggest, as happened with Clinton, discouraging the male-dominated establishment from encouraging and supporting their efforts.)

    I think this suggests that the media is not as all powerful as Democrats especially seem to think it is (Republicans I think understand this very well, which is why they are perfectly happy to use the media as a punching bag). But, I don't think you need to consider the success of female candidates to come to this conclusion. Bill Clinton's popularity is a terrific example of how performance trumps media approval, and of how little power the media ultimately wields.
     

    Parent

    Great! What's the name of the book? (none / 0) (#64)
    by FoxholeAtheist on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 03:50:55 PM EST
    "Women for President" by Erika Falk (none / 0) (#65)
    by esmense on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 03:55:57 PM EST
    Actually it covers 8 campaigns, not 5 (dumb typing). University of Illinois Press is the publisher.

    Parent
    There's good questions in it, but the study (none / 0) (#71)
    by Cream City on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 04:37:39 PM EST
    has its share of criticism for its results -- among them, for Falk's definition of "media."  As usual, she limits her study essentially to newspapers, and few of them.  

    Parent
    Well, for many of the races covered (none / 0) (#73)
    by esmense on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 04:45:17 PM EST
    newspapers were the only media. Plus, the number of truly national media outlets are limited -- but, the research also included coverage provided by the individual candidates' local media.

    Parent
    Print media pre-1919 (none / 0) (#79)
    by Cream City on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 05:59:51 PM EST
    still would have included magazines, yes -- but candidates have not operated in a solely print media environment for almost a century now.

    Again, useful as far as the (fairly limited) parameters of the study go -- except for extrapolating to the current media environment, i.e., the Clinton campaign.  By then, media event went beyond that newfangled broadcast media circa 1919.

    Parent

    I suppose (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by lilburro on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:00:12 PM EST
    Obama and his advisers are in a bubble.  I don't know how they got into such a big bubble, but they did.

    Also Paul Krugman seems to agree with you:

    As for public perceptions: I guess I'm unconvinced that the public has any idea how much time the Oval Office gives to things. I do think that Obama would be in better shape if he had done more to align himself with popular rage against Wall Street. More broadly, you might argue that what Obama has lacked is a theme: there hasn't been much full-throated condemnation of the bad old ways, much vision of things being different. But that's a question of position, not "focus". Indeed, health reform could have been made very much a part of that, just as Social Security was for FDR.

    So I'd place blame for Obama's undoubted troubles on (a) half-measures in the crucial early months (b) unwillingness to articulate a clear break with Reaganism and all that.



    Interesting. Yes, no "just words" (none / 0) (#32)
    by Cream City on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:16:03 PM EST
    such as "New Deal," "New Frontier," "War on Poverty," etc. -- words encapsulating programs.

    Nope, just generalities about "Hope and Change" -- or "We are the Change That We Were Waiting For" and "Yes, We Can" and other such stolen phraseology not about programs but about power.  Interesting.

    Parent

    Kind of like (none / 0) (#101)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 10:35:00 AM EST
    Bridge to the 21st Century then huh?

    Parent
    I begin to wonder if Obama (5.00 / 1) (#33)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:16:19 PM EST
    has "policies" beyond a second term.  and I also wonder if he doesnt think that a republican congress might just be thing to make him more appreciated.  
    I think there is little doubt it helped Clinton win a second term.

    He (5.00 / 4) (#37)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:24:44 PM EST
    might think that but if they shut down the government I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama cave and give them everything they want instead of standing up to them.

    Parent
    Given the crisis level (5.00 / 4) (#42)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:35:25 PM EST
    when he took office and his "mandate", he has underpreformed horribly.  He is talented on many levels but he is missing something vital...follow through. inclusiveheart nailed it long ago, he's in love with process.  He's way too attached to it in my opinion and will give up all sort of things for the process too.  What have you ever done successfully where you easily sold yourself out time and again?

    Politician : (5.00 / 2) (#53)
    by smott on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 02:44:46 PM EST
    Main Entry: pol·i·ti·cian
    Pronunciation: &#716;pä-lə-ˈti-shən\
    Function: noun
    Date: 1589
    1 : a person experienced in the art or science of government; especially : one actively engaged in conducting the business of a government
    2 a : a person engaged in party politics as a profession b : a person primarily interested in political office for selfish or other narrow usually short-sighted reasons

    I would argue as 1) Obama is 'not so much' - lacking both in significant pre-WH experience or active engagement in govt.

    2) - Absolutely

    "I feel your pain" (5.00 / 3) (#54)
    by NYShooter on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 02:47:02 PM EST
    Clinton said it, and he meant it. The reason he was America's first "black" President was that our A/A's felt, in a visceral way, that their struggle was very similar to his. They, and he, woke up every morning behind the eight ball, having to spend most of their time just to get up to zero before being able to accomplish anything meaningful.

    "A rising tide lifts all boats," is not just a catchy slogan, it's an empirical economic philosophy that has proven to be much more successful than the phony "Trickle Down" hoax. But, in terms of being "successful," both Clinton and Obama are successful. If success is measured by one's ability to attain one's goals, both have done so.

    Unfortunately, one benefit's the majority of citizens, the other benefit's a sliver.

    It's all about choices.


    Really he felt it (none / 0) (#102)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 10:36:33 AM EST
    seriously, you do realize that economically Clinton was the guy at the helm when much ot the deregualtion the caused today's problem's occured right- or does he get a pass on that because he bit his lower lip.

    Parent
    Agree (5.00 / 1) (#56)
    by smott on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 02:56:33 PM EST
    We can define "politician" lots of different ways and say he is or he isn't a good one...

    Or we can just break it down more simply:

    Getting elected - he's good

    Keeping corporate contributors happy and rich - good, maybe very good if the jump in private insurance stocks after the HCR bill holds...

    Getting policies passed that help the working class or middle class - "not so much"

    ...and so on.

    If Dems can weather the storm in 2010 (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:14:52 PM EST
    his coattails should make a difference in 2012. I'm not sure they can, though.

    I don't think he had much (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by nycstray on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:30:42 PM EST
    in the way of coattails to start with

    Parent
    You don't think Dem. majority in (none / 0) (#8)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:32:47 PM EST
    both houses of Congress is at least partially due to Obama coattails?

    Parent
    No (5.00 / 4) (#10)
    by nycstray on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:36:35 PM EST
    You are aware... (none / 0) (#12)
    by Romberry on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:38:59 PM EST
    ...the Democrats had control of both houses of Congress for the last two years of the Bush presidency, well before Obama was elected president or had even announced his campaign, right? In what way are Obama's coattails responsible for that?

    Parent
    Were there 60 Dem. Senators (none / 0) (#18)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:43:46 PM EST
    prior to Obama's election as President?

    Parent
    Actually (5.00 / 8) (#24)
    by cal1942 on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:02:51 PM EST
    Democrats could have won running the mule.

    Too many people, especially Obama fanatics, have forgotten that Obama trailed McCain until the financial meltdown.


    Parent

    Not true (none / 0) (#29)
    by samtaylor2 on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:12:46 PM EST
    McCain got a pump with Palin and the convention, and then they were going down.  And then McCain, ignored all the evidence, and said the economy was doing okay.  

    Obama is a great politician.  Why would anyone deny that- Regan was a great politcian, Hitler was a great politcian- it is just a statement of fact, it is not a statement of endorsement.

    Parent

    What's the definition of great politician, Sam? (5.00 / 2) (#35)
    by gyrfalcon on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:23:00 PM EST
    IMO, the definition has to include something beyond just getting yourself elected, no?

    Parent
    Cinfusing the word statesman (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:35:52 PM EST
    with politician.

    Parent
    Who, me? (none / 0) (#80)
    by gyrfalcon on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 06:00:12 PM EST
    No, indeed, I am not confusing statesman with politician.  A great politician, IMHO, is able to achieve more with a bad hand than simply getting himself elected.

    Parent
    Exactly right. (5.00 / 3) (#48)
    by Romberry on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:52:31 PM EST
    A great politician is one who can bend others to his will, whether through sweet talk or coercion. LBJ was a great politician. FDR was a great politician. Obama? Obama got elected. If he wants to be great, he'll need to do more than that.

    Parent
    Really (5.00 / 2) (#76)
    by cal1942 on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 05:19:49 PM EST
    I recall following the polls, state by state and national every day.

    But, assuming the big shift came before the meltdown; the acts you cite: McCain's statements about the economy, Palin exposed, are gaffes from the other side not Obama's political abilities.

    I'm not denying that Obama is an effective campaigner, I'm saying that he's not the only Democrat who would have won that election.

    Parent

    I would argue that almost (none / 0) (#85)
    by samtaylor2 on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 06:38:50 PM EST
    Any person that is being considered to be the President of the United States is a great politician.  To get to that point you would have had to jump over so many road blocks, manipulated so many people (in good and bad ways), and kissed so many babys,all the while competing with like minded people gunning for you, that anyone who isn't amazing at being a politician would not be in the running.

    Parent
    Sam, then you agree (none / 0) (#90)
    by Cream City on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 09:18:52 PM EST
    with BTD in defining a politician as a candidate.

    What about after the election -- governing?

    Parent

    I don't have a problem with (none / 0) (#96)
    by samtaylor2 on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 08:31:45 AM EST
    The way he is governing.  In fact, I like a president that defers to the congress and I like a congress that speaks independently of the executive (it would be extra nice if the Republicans would do that).  I might not always like the results personally, but I think that is how our government should run.   One of the things I see in many progressive complaints of Obama (people I agree with on policy issues), is that they wanted Obama to be the same executive power hungry President that Bush was.  I disagree with that.

    Parent
    But the results of that style stink (5.00 / 1) (#103)
    by Cream City on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 10:57:03 AM EST
    so how he can be adjudged good at governing with no jobs bill yet . . . well, we and my many unemployed and underemployed family members and their friends disagree.  You like style.  We want substance.

    Parent
    I think it is to early to say the results (none / 0) (#104)
    by samtaylor2 on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 02:23:04 PM EST
    Stink. I hope I am right.  I your family and their friends the best in finding good, rewarding work.

    Parent
    No (none / 0) (#36)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:23:07 PM EST
    great politicans don't have the problems leading that Obama has had. Right now he's mediocre but perhaps he can learn and change or maybe not. We shall see.

    Parent
    Change? (5.00 / 2) (#44)
    by NYShooter on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:37:04 PM EST
    What has Obama done to indicate he wants to change anything?

    From the economy, national security, and civil rights, protecting the status quo seems to be his only goal.


    Parent

    The need for 60 Sen votes is an artificial marker (5.00 / 4) (#46)
    by Ellie on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:46:54 PM EST
    Deflecting accountability. They got it and squandered it.

    Parent
    No, and there are not... (5.00 / 1) (#47)
    by Romberry on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:50:28 PM EST
    ...60 Dem senators now. Do you count Lieberman as a Democrat? Really? Bernie Sanders caucuses with Dems, but he is an independent. And Max Baucus, Evan Bayh, Kent Conrad, Ben Nelson and some others may call themselves Democrats, but they are hardly helpful when it comes to anything progressive.

    My point stands. Democrats had control of both chambers before Obama ran for president, therefore Obama's coattails can not be responsible for Democratic control of both chambers. If you wanna give someone credit for that, I suggest...Howard Dean.

    Parent

    No. Franken was #60 (counting (none / 0) (#20)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:51:40 PM EST
    2 Independents (hah)as Dem. Wiki

    Parent
    Not at all. (none / 0) (#19)
    by Buckeye on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:50:21 PM EST
    The Big Dog as only an average president...

    In terms of (none / 0) (#11)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:38:16 PM EST
    expanding the appeal of the Dem Party, probably over the longer term, above average.

    In terms of governance, well above average.

    We're discussing two different things.

    Parent

    Isn't the problem that Obama's tide (none / 0) (#13)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:39:49 PM EST
    isn't rising?  

    Per AP analysis, Obama is trying (none / 0) (#60)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 03:32:42 PM EST
    out themes for midterms:  AP

    Strong hint of you may fool all of the people some of the time, . . .

    If ever there was an (5.00 / 3) (#62)
    by Anne on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 03:40:17 PM EST
    AYFKM (Are You F**king Kidding Me?) moment, this has to be one...

    "When the chips are down, when the tough votes come, on all the fights that matter to middle-class families ... who is going to be on your side?," Obama asked Sunday, shedding his executive-like tie as he campaigned for a struggling Democratic candidate -- and tested a midterm election message.

    His answer: Democrats work for the little guys on Main Street while Republicans do the bidding of Wall Street.

    A better - and more truthful - answer to Obama's question might have been...[crickets]... followed by..."Bueller?...Bueller?"


    Parent

    O.M.G. (5.00 / 0) (#81)
    by nycstray on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 06:00:12 PM EST
    He said "Democrats"?!

    Parent
    He needs to retire that $hit right now (none / 0) (#97)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 09:49:09 AM EST
    He'd better find a much different example of how Democrats have fought for us.  He has done nothing but the bidding of Wall Street.  The whole country knows it and the Repubs will shred him if he talks that crap.  What an idiot

    Parent
    He got some heavy-duty heckling (5.00 / 2) (#72)
    by Cream City on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 04:41:11 PM EST
    at his talk in MA.  Either some are not fooled, or some are fools.  Or -- well, it was something to see that I can't recall seeing for a while for a sitting president.  Other than the "you lie!" in Congress, of course.  

    Parent
    hey, he could try campaiging (5.00 / 2) (#74)
    by observed on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 04:56:47 PM EST
    against the Republican brand.


    Parent