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How To Poll The Obvious

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Media
Posted on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 09:28:38 AM EST
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Via Political Wire, a Military Times subscriber survey tells us their readers prefer Bush to Obama. Here's the tell though:

The responses are not representative of the opinions of the military as a whole. The survey group overall under-represents minorities, women and junior enlisted service members, and over-represents soldiers.

All righty then. Thanks for letting us know older white military men from the South are less likely to approve of Obama than Bush. We never would have known otherwise.

Speaking for me only

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    How To Poll The Obvious | 19 comments (19 topical)

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    The military... (5.00 / 2) (#6)
    by pmj6 on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 10:36:19 AM EST
    ...is not 75% white, older, Southern men. Trust me on this, I spent 12 years as part of it. Yet Obama got only 1 military vote in 4.

    Yeah, the poll may be flawed. But please don't try to pass off the lack of support for Obama among the ranks as caused by racism and/or homophobia (though on that score the military has nothing to fear, I predict). This little quote is telling:

    "How are you going to safely pull combat troops out of Iraq?" said Air Force 1st Lt. Rachel Kleinpeter, an intelligence officer with the 100th Operations Support Squadron at RAF Mildenhall, England. "And if you're pulling out combat troops, who are you leaving to help support what's left? What happens if Iraq falls back into chaos? Are we going to be there in five years doing the same thing over again?"

    1st LT Rachel Kleinpeter clearly sounds like one of these older Southern white men, no? And these are totally legitimate questions which Obama is yet to address in anything other than generalities.

    Excuse me (none / 0) (#7)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 10:42:00 AM EST
    "The ranks" are NOT represented in this poll, as the poll itself confesses.

    Your comment is extremely bizarre.

    You seem to miss the point entirely.

    Parent

    Excuse yourself (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by pmj6 on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 10:44:16 AM EST
    I wrote very clearly that the poll may well be flawed, did I not? But even if it is, the underlying fact is that the US military voters supported McCain over Obama. Are you disputing that?

    Parent
    Actually I am disputing that (none / 0) (#11)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 10:57:04 AM EST
    But I am not disputing this - I am not engaging you at all anymore.

    You are on your own.

    Parent

    since I teach statistics and sampling, (none / 0) (#1)
    by jeffinalabama on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 09:39:54 AM EST
    let me tell you... this is not a scientific survey. It may well be designed to get a specific answer.

    for example, "do you believe people should want to help Armenian orphans?" Who in the hell is against that?

    the sampling, I won't even address right now. Permit me to say that a sampling of subscribers is biased from the beginning.

    Time to go vomit, based on the methodology of this 'survey.'

    Heh (none / 0) (#3)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 09:41:53 AM EST
    Still and all, white military men from the South are likely to prefer Bush to Obama you know.

    Parent
    It's probably garbage. (none / 0) (#4)
    by Fabian on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 09:45:18 AM EST
    I'm signed up for a survey and focus group organization (mostly consumer, some political) and I've been impressed by their screening and other methods.  

    (I usually fail to meet their criteria because I'm a "fringe" consumer as opposed as to mainstream.)

    Parent

    Useless Drivel (none / 0) (#2)
    by SOS on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 09:40:46 AM EST
    Polls are

    Most (none / 0) (#5)
    by AlkalineDave on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 10:19:39 AM EST
    of the junior enlisted don't read a military times newspaper unless it has something that's sparks their interest such as an article relating to pay increases, benefits, education, etc.

    And I'm still wondering... (none / 0) (#9)
    by pmj6 on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 10:47:35 AM EST
    ...how in the world you managed to work "from the South" into that sentence. What in that article suggested anything about Southerners being overrepresented?

    Seems to me you have a poll which contradicts your preconceived notions, so you are straining to explain it away by falling back on racism. But if Obama got only 1 military vote out of 4, well, then maybe something else is at work here.

    A guess on my part (none / 0) (#12)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 10:57:36 AM EST
    What's your guess?

    Parent
    My guess would be... (none / 0) (#13)
    by pmj6 on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 11:12:24 AM EST
    ...that Southern whites are not overrepresented in this poll, at least not to the extent that would account for the high level of skepticism about Obama. The South contributes about 40-45% of new recruits, quite a few of those are African-Americans and Hispanics, so the proportion of Southern whites is probably on the order of 30-35%. Now, it may well be that every single one of the 25% who are pessimistic about Obama are in fact white Southern males, but I think we'd need better data before making a sweeping claim like that.

    Parent
    Your comment (none / 0) (#14)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 11:16:09 AM EST
    ignores everything we know about the readership of the Military times.

    and now I am done with you.

    Parent

    Right, I forgot... (none / 0) (#15)
    by pmj6 on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 11:36:02 AM EST
    ...it's ready overwhelmingly by older Southern men. Who are also racist.

    Parent
    At the risk of.... (none / 0) (#10)
    by EL seattle on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 10:52:54 AM EST
    ...re-opening a can of worms...

    I wonder if the Military Times done a recent subscriber survey about the whole gays in the military issue.  It might be interesting to compare those results with the Obama vs. Bush or any other "democrat" vs. "republican" issues.

    Here's the 2008 pre-election poll, by MilTimes (none / 0) (#16)
    by pmj6 on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 11:44:38 AM EST
    http://www.militarytimes.com/static/projects/pages/081003_ep_2pp.pdf

    McCain wins both men and women (!), whites, hispanics, and "other race specified", he wins among enlisted and officers, older than 35, younger than 35, etc. Obama carries only the blacks.

    So I guess we can retire the "oversampling older white Southern racists" canard.

    This quote is confusing. (none / 0) (#17)
    by hairspray on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 12:07:50 PM EST
    The survey group overall under-represents minorities, women and junior enlisted service members, and over-represents soldiers.
    Aren't minorities, women and junior officers all considered soldiers?

    It's a goofy way of saying... (none / 0) (#18)
    by pmj6 on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 12:10:32 PM EST
    ...they had more respondents among Army servicemembers than Navy, Air Force, etc.

    Parent
    This is a Poll like I am a General. (none / 0) (#19)
    by steviez314 on Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 01:21:53 PM EST
    1.  Only Military Times subscribers were polled.

    2.  The responses were self-selected, instead of being a random sample of subscribers.

    i.e., It's like an internet Zogby poll.

    How To Poll The Obvious | 19 comments (19 topical)

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