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The Polls - 9/28

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 09:15:35 AM EST
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Two tracking polls have been released that include Saturday polling (the day after the debate. In the DKos/R2000 poll (9/25-27), Obama ticked up a point overall (he had a +9 on Saturday), and leads 50-43. In the Ras poll, Obama maintains his 6 point lead, 50-44. At the least he did not lose ground in Saturday polling. Update - Gallup has a big Saturday move for Obama - he now leads by 8, 50-42. Hotline has Obama by 5, 47-42.

We'll add other polls as available, but so far it seems the debate did Obama no harm and probaly helped.

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    The Polls - 9/28 | 28 comments (28 topical)

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    There's some other good news in the Ras poll (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by rdandrea on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 09:29:41 AM EST
    Obama is now +2 in favorables over McCain, and he's also ahead in crossover support for the first time in the campaign.

    He certainly didn't hurt himself Friday night.

    Also, without leaners, Obama west from +5 to +7 (5.00 / 0) (#2)
    by steviez314 on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 09:35:40 AM EST
    So his support is firming up, while McCain's is getting a bit more "leany"

    Parent
    Polls (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by zvs888 on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 09:45:37 AM EST
    http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/09/usatgallup-poll.html

    This is probably important too.  USA Today/Gallup about the debate.

    A new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows 46% of people who watched Friday night's presidential debate say Democrat Barack Obama did a better job than Republican John McCain; 34% said McCain did better.

    Obama scored even better -- 52%-35% -- when debate-watchers were asked which candidate offered the best proposals for change to solve the country's problems.

    Also, just announced on MSNBC, Obama will have an 8 point lead (if this guy can be trusted) in the Gallup later today...  up from 5 points.

    wow (none / 0) (#6)
    by connecticut yankee on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 10:13:28 AM EST
    That woudld be sweet, his strongest lead yet on gallup iirc.

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    Ten points, baby. (none / 0) (#4)
    by LarryInNYC on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 09:52:09 AM EST
    Just sayin'

    According to CNN yesterday (none / 0) (#5)
    by kenosharick on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 10:06:53 AM EST
    and quoting a top level "unnamed Obama campaign operative" they consider the race tied if polls show a 4 pt. lead for Obama due to the problems they will face with new voters turning out and voting correctly.

    That's ridiculous (none / 0) (#7)
    by andgarden on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 10:38:53 AM EST
    But I guess you can get anyone to say anything.

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    More to the point. . . (2.66 / 3) (#11)
    by LarryInNYC on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 11:16:17 AM EST
    you can get someone to post on a blog that some anonymous pundit said some anonymous campaign worker said anything.

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    I'll just shut the f#*k up now (3.00 / 4) (#13)
    by kenosharick on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 12:46:26 PM EST
    sorry i dared to say anything that was not a glowing platitute of "THE ONE"

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    What do you expect. . . (3.00 / 2) (#17)
    by LarryInNYC on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 01:32:03 PM EST
    you post an unsourced, unlinked statement from an unnamed person claimed to be from the Obama campaign that fits directly into right wing talking points, and you don't expect to be questioned?

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    kenosharick is just being a good PUMA soldier (2.33 / 3) (#20)
    by andgarden on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 01:36:35 PM EST
    I don't think much of it.

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    I have nothing to do with those people- (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by kenosharick on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 08:59:08 PM EST
    don't speak for me. I am offended, and who the hell do you think you are to do so?  

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    I'm surprised you ... (none / 0) (#22)
    by Robot Porter on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 02:27:12 PM EST
    think that's ridiculous.  That's a widely held belief among people who analyze polls.

     

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    Yup (none / 0) (#8)
    by andgarden on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 10:39:20 AM EST
    If the election were held today, Obama would win comfortably.

    Yep (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by TheRizzo on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 10:47:40 AM EST
    But thats the problem with elections and polls.  Things change fast and dramatically on lots of different factors.   And with 37 days to go thats a lifetime for things to change, spread out and flip back and forth a dozen times.

    Parent
    True (none / 0) (#10)
    by andgarden on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 10:54:21 AM EST
    But we're getting to the end now, and if McCain is really 6-9 pts behind in a close watched race, he's going to have a hard time making it up.

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    If the Friday polls ... (none / 0) (#24)
    by Robot Porter on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 02:47:05 PM EST
    going into the election show Obama with a 6-9 point lead, I think he will win.

    If they show a 5% lead, it's going to be a long night.  And a coin-flip as to who wins.

    If it's under 4%, I think he will lose.

    Right now, due to the financial crisis, I've gone from bearish on Obama's chances to bullish.

    I think McCain needs some very good luck over the next few weeks to pull this out.

    Parent

    poll (none / 0) (#12)
    by connecticut yankee on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 12:20:14 PM EST
    New Gallup: Obama by 8 (50-42)

    He hasnt been that strong since the end of the dem convention.

    Is that one day. . . (none / 0) (#15)
    by LarryInNYC on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 01:25:08 PM EST
    of the tracking poll, or the three day average.  If the former, I believe it has an enormous MOE.

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    Three-day, but here's some detail (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Cream City on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 01:31:11 PM EST
    as the reports with each Gallup poll tend to have some interesting interpretations (found by just clicking on "Gallup" on the RCP daily poll list):

    Obama has gained steadily in each of the last three days' reports. Overall, Obama has gained four percentage points over the last three days, while McCain has lost four points, for an eight-point swing in the "gap" or margin.

    The full impact of the debate and its aftermath will not be reflected in the tracking data until Tuesday's report, which will be based on interviewing conducted Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Still, Gallup's one-day read on the standing of the two candidates on Saturday suggests that Obama held the lead over McCain among registered voters that night, just as he had for the two previous nights.

    Obama reached an eight-point lead or higher twice before, once after his highly publicized foreign tour to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Europe in July, and once after the Democratic National Convention. In both of these instances, Obama's relatively large lead was short-lived; McCain came charging back to tie the race in both cases. Thus history would suggest the potential for future shifts in voter preferences and for McCain to bounce back once again.



    Parent
    Obviously. . . (none / 0) (#19)
    by LarryInNYC on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 01:35:08 PM EST
    there is always the potential for the race to shift (even if it hadn't shifted in the past).

    But you'll notice that each of those leads was due to Obama's visibility.  I doubt either of the candidates will have a lot trouble with visibility in the next 6 weeks.  And that's good for Obama and bad for McCain, I think.

    Parent

    Obviously. But you asked (5.00 / 2) (#21)
    by Cream City on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 01:42:43 PM EST
    and I answered.  Next time, go look it up yourself.

    Parent
    October (surprise) coming. (none / 0) (#14)
    by Christy1947 on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 12:54:26 PM EST
    McC is desperate at this point, and although we thought Georgia was the surprise,  and then that Palin was the surprise, and then that the Economic Bailout was the surprise, October is soon upon us. Given McC's repeated preference for the lightning game changer, I think we can expect one or more of them.

    I also think we have to be careful not to forget the stuff floating under the tide line, the racist stuff and like that, which he may be counting upon but too ashamed to admit it, although the rest of Repubs are not too ashamed to do anything at all. Just waiting for those to mature in the voting booth. Hello Bradley.

    Special forces on the ground in Pakistan (none / 0) (#18)
    by robrecht on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 01:33:38 PM EST
    a couple of weeks ago by helicopter, killing some 9-20 civillians.  Were they trying to get bin Laden specifically or just Al-Qaeda in general?  

    I can't say I'm opposed to any real attempt to get bin Laden but I was amazed how little attention was given to this in the MSM.  Sort of gives the lie to one of McCain's debate talking points as well.

    Parent

    RCP No Toss Up States: Obama 301-237 (none / 0) (#23)
    by robrecht on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 02:29:50 PM EST
    Today, North Carolina was added, Virginia on Friday.  Even though this is clearly an overly sensitive methodology from a statistical point of view within each state, it has nonetheless been stuck nationally at Obama with 273 EC votes for more than a month before Friday.

    FiveThirtyEight.com employs a different methodology that attempts to predict movement in individual and neighboring states based on national trends last night jumped to 318 electoral votes for Obama, not by giving him North Carolina but rather Florida and Nevada.

    If you try to force a "no toss up states" template on the more conservative Pollster.com trend estimates, the race is absolutely tied, both nationally and in New Hampshire.

    I'm not sure if NPR/Newshour electoral predictions are updated over the weekend but they haven't changed since Friday.

    Appreciate any additional insight into specific methodologies used at these or other electoral vote poll sites.

    I believe that's the first change ... (none / 0) (#25)
    by Robot Porter on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 02:50:21 PM EST
    since August.

    RCP was stuck at Obama 272, McCain 265 for weeks. It didn't move during the McCain bounce period.

    Parent

    Yes, Friday was the first change since 8/24 (none / 0) (#26)
    by robrecht on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 05:08:15 PM EST
    when Colorado went back into Obama's column to make it 273-265.

    Parent
    It went to 286 for Obama (none / 0) (#28)
    by Cream City on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 09:28:21 PM EST
    a few dats ago, but otherwise -- yes, it was stuck for a long time at 273.  (And the overall summary above of several sites is very useful).

    Parent
    The Polls - 9/28 | 28 comments (28 topical)

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