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The Polls - 9/25

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:08:20 AM EST
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The DKos/R2000 poll (9/22-24) has Obama up 6, 49-43. NBC/WSJ poll (9/19-22) has Obama by 2, 48-46. Fox/Opinion Dynamics (9/22-23) has Obama by 6, 45-39.

Gallup Tracker 9/21-23 has Obama by 3. Hotline 9/21-23 has Obama by 6, 48-42. LATimes/Bloomberg 9/19-22) has Obama by 4, 49-45.

ABC/WaPo 9/19-22) has Obama up 9, 52-43. CNN/Opinion Research 9/19-21 has Obama up 4, 51-47. [More...]

Ipsos/McClatchey (9/18-22) has Obama up 1, 44-43. Ras (9/22-24) has Obama up 3, 49-46. That is 10 polls that show Obama leading from anywhere between 1 and 9 points. There is one poll that has McCain leading, the Battleground poll, which has McCain up 1, 48-47.

If you average out all of these results, they have Obama ahead by 4. BTW, the reason I do not focus on state polls yet is first, most of them come from what I consider fairly unreliable outfits. Second, I think that there is a lag in showing national trends into state polls. And third, I think that there are not enough of them in each state to give us a meaningful feeling about them. Starting in mid-October, I'll start following them more closely.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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    The Polls - 9/25 | 35 comments (35 topical)

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    Gallup (none / 0) (#1)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:16:56 AM EST
    seems to be showing where the race is right now imo. The polls with the higher numbers are older so it seems that Obama spiked earlier in the week and now things are settling down.

    No (none / 0) (#8)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:30:17 AM EST
    R200o is today and Hotline is the same day  as Gallup, and they say Obama by 6.

    Gallup is close to the average, but the average is 4.

    [ Parent ]

    I don't (none / 0) (#17)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:59:44 AM EST
    trust r2000. They seem to be skewed D much like Ras tends to skew R.

    [ Parent ]
    I agree (none / 0) (#18)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 09:05:29 AM EST
    R2000 has a Dem house effect as does PPP.

    Ras has a GOP house effect, but Gallup has a slight one as well.

    What is interesting is ABC does not and neither does NBC. Yet they have widely divergent results, 9 and 2 respectively.

    I split the difference between them, so I say Obama by 6.

    [ Parent ]

    Even Ras shows McCain collapsing yesterday (none / 0) (#19)
    by andgarden on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 09:06:43 AM EST
    It's no wonder he thought he needed a stunt.

    [ Parent ]
    Party ID splits (none / 0) (#24)
    by Pianobuff on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 09:50:49 AM EST
    Can't remember where the cite is, but I seem to recall that the party ID splits on these two polls were noticeably different.  I think ABC may have had a gap somewhere around 10-12%.

    [ Parent ]
    Really, you don't look at state polls? (none / 0) (#2)
    by andgarden on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:18:33 AM EST
    I think in practice you do what I do: look at state polls and national polls, and augur what seems reasonable about each state.

    Stale state polls are annoying, but it's useful to have some idea what states are actually competitive and might shift with better or worse national numbers.

    Were there no state polls, I would be quite suspicious of Colorado being competitive, or Indiana even being on the map.  

    I have a map in my head (none / 0) (#6)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:28:44 AM EST
    I do not look at GA or North Carolina or Iowa now.

    I look at Colorado, Ohio, FL, PA, MI, NM. NV, VA.

    Really, I am just going to look at Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Colorado.

    That is where it will be decided.

    [ Parent ]

    And Nevada too I guess (none / 0) (#7)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:29:11 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    No worries about NH? (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by robrecht on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 09:38:37 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Funny, because Ras now claims (none / 0) (#9)
    by andgarden on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:31:55 AM EST
    that Obama is ahead in NC. The year of wacky numbers, I guess.

    Anyway, I think if I had tracking polls of PA, CO, NH, and VA, I could tell you who was going to win the election.

    [ Parent ]

    I do not believe it (none / 0) (#11)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:38:07 AM EST
    and that is why I do not pay attention until October. Hell, Ras said Obama was winning in North Dakota before.

    Obama pulled out of N. Dakota last week.

    [ Parent ]

    Before Palin, I can believe that ND was close (none / 0) (#12)
    by andgarden on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:39:54 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Well (none / 0) (#13)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:48:03 AM EST
    Not me.

    [ Parent ]
    PA should be back on your "main" map (none / 0) (#20)
    by gtesta on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 09:27:50 AM EST
    Speaking as a purely political junkie, I'd love to bet you a steak dinner, that McCain pulls out PA.  I can't bring myself to do that, as I would be gagging on my steak.  But my concerns this election are centered on PA.

    [ Parent ]
    Mine too (none / 0) (#21)
    by andgarden on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 09:36:43 AM EST
    But as I see the map now, PA is crucial to McCain. If he loses Colorado, which I think he will, Pennsylvania is MUST WIN for him.

    [ Parent ]
    Definitely. PA is the election... (none / 0) (#23)
    by gtesta on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 09:49:33 AM EST
    The reason that VA is competitive is because all the new voters moved there from PA.

    Here is a nice example of who stayed behind in PA
    http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94985544

    I'm not buying the conventional wisdom that says that PA will only go McCain in a McCain blowout.  It's more of a stealth pickup opportunity.

    But if PA goes McCain, OH will too.  My consolation at this point is seeing Democratic governors in both PA and OH...so we should see honest vote counts.

    [ Parent ]

    i too see the keystone (none / 0) (#25)
    by sancho on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 09:58:21 AM EST
    state as the key to the white house and worry that mccain can win it.

    [ Parent ]
    SUSA Sez: (none / 0) (#26)
    by andgarden on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 11:14:44 AM EST
    Obama 50, McCain 44

    [ Parent ]
    Give it a couple days.... (none / 0) (#32)
    by gtesta on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 01:31:46 PM EST
    for the nationals to filter back down...

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/110668/Gallup-Daily-Race-Back-Tie-46-Each.aspx

    After the last two weeks, this is not encouraging.

    [ Parent ]

    "Augur." Excellent. (none / 0) (#27)
    by oculus on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 11:29:13 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    can you tell us more (none / 0) (#3)
    by Lil on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:22:18 AM EST
    of what you think about battleground. anyone, that is.

    Odd way for McCain to suspend campaign (none / 0) (#4)
    by litigatormom on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:25:32 AM EST
    He's clearly not given up on trying to influence the polls.  This morning, despite the "suspension" of his campaign, he's run TV ads on the economic crisis in NYC markets. He is as I type this speaking at the Clinton Global Initiative explaining why he is putting politics aside to go to "all hands on deck" meetings in Warshington.

    Slightly OT, but since McCain is clearly reacting to the latest polls, I beg your indulgence.

    Is he actually running ads in NYC (none / 0) (#5)
    by andgarden on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:26:40 AM EST
    or are you just seeing a national cable buy?

    It seems impossible for me to believe that either candidate would spend in NYC.

    [ Parent ]

    It was on MSNBC (none / 0) (#14)
    by litigatormom on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:48:36 AM EST
    so I suppose it could be a national cable buy. I don't know how to tell the difference. But he if were suspending his campaign, he'd pull the national cable buys too, wouldn't he?

    [ Parent ]
    It can take time to get the ads down (none / 0) (#16)
    by andgarden on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:49:25 AM EST
    But on MSNBC, yeah, I think it was a national buy.

    [ Parent ]
    McCain has not "suspended" his campaign (none / 0) (#10)
    by Finis Terrae on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:32:47 AM EST
    I agree with you.

    Warshington (pun intended?)

    [ Parent ]

    Yes, phonetic rendering of (none / 0) (#15)
    by litigatormom on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:49:00 AM EST
    McCain and Palin's pronunciation.

    [ Parent ]
    My mom (none / 0) (#30)
    by Steve M on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 12:58:24 PM EST
    says "warsh."  Macomb County accent.

    [ Parent ]
    Exactly. But not limited (none / 0) (#31)
    by oculus on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 01:00:59 PM EST
    to Macomb Co. MI.  See SE Iowa.  

    [ Parent ]
    When I was in Tennessee (none / 0) (#33)
    by Steve M on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 02:35:43 PM EST
    I drove by a laundromat with a big "WASH-HOUSE" sign.  The owner had cleverly inserted a letter R and a caret in between the A and the S.

    [ Parent ]
    A friend who grew up and worked in (none / 0) (#34)
    by oculus on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 10:15:52 PM EST
    D.C. told me today "Warshington" is the usual pronunciation there.  

    [ Parent ]
    Makes sense. How do YOU (none / 0) (#28)
    by oculus on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 11:30:45 AM EST
    pronounce "wash"?  

    [ Parent ]
    Yea (none / 0) (#35)
    by CST on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 10:21:01 PM EST
    I just saw a McCain ad tonight during the sox game (NH market too).  It was all about how Obama believes in big government.  In this climate, I bet that ad gets Obama votes everywhere, except unfortunately maybe NH.

    [ Parent ]
    I agree about the lag. (none / 0) (#29)
    by coigue on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 12:02:21 PM EST
    I noticed that as well

    The Polls - 9/25 | 35 comments (35 topical)

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