PPP Colorado Poll Results: Obama 51, McCain 44

The Public Policy Project poll of Colorado voters I wrote about last night is out. Obama leads McCain, 51% to 44%. Gov. Sarah Palin is tanking his ticket.

Sarah Palin's popularity with Colorado voters over the last couple weeks has plummeted, and as it has Barack Obama has opened up his biggest lead yet in a PPP survey of the state.

Immediately after the Republican convention 41% of Coloradoans said John McCain's choice of Palin to join him on the ticket made them more likely to vote for him while 38% said it made them less likely to do so. Now the number of people saying Palin's selection makes them less likely to vote for McCain has climbed to 47% with the number of people viewing it favorably dropping to 38%.

Full poll results here (pdf). And good news for Rep. Mark Udall in the Senate race: He's leading Bob Shaffer 48 to 40. [More...]

On Independent voters:

The movement over the last couple weeks has been particularly acute with independent voters. 56% of them say that the Palin choice makes them less likely to support McCain and what was a 49-38 lead for Obama with that group is now a 58-31 advantage.

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    Great news all around (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by trublueCO on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 12:29:25 PM EST
    The Senate numbers have been relatively steady with multiple polls. Considering all of the outrageous 527 ads I have seen against Udall, I'm glad to see they haven't moved public opinion much.

    Obama's lead in this poll seems a little high to me, but I do get the sense that this thing isn't as close as most other polls show. If he can close the gap in Colorado Springs, I see him winning the state by 3-5%.

    Meaning: (5.00 / 0) (#5)
    by andgarden on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 12:38:46 PM EST
    McCain HAS to win Pennsylvania, or he's finished.

    Obama is cleaning up on the Economy in CO (none / 0) (#7)
    by andgarden on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 12:42:20 PM EST
    McCain is just finished here, it seems to me. (Barring an Osama incident. . .)

    Quinnipac has obama ahead by four pts (none / 0) (#29)
    by PssttCmere08 on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 02:22:10 PM EST
    only...still not enough to get expectations up too high.

    What about Michigan? (none / 0) (#9)
    by CST on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 12:44:26 PM EST
    That's another one of the Kerry states on my "concerned" list.  Do we know how the polls are going there?

    Michigan I'm feeling ok about (none / 0) (#13)
    by andgarden on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 12:53:45 PM EST
    but Pennsylvania has a pretty high quotient of "bitter white people."

    the Pennsylvania side (none / 0) (#34)
    by christinep on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 06:21:09 PM EST
    A few other things: In my original home state, Sen. Biden's remark today about opposition to "clean coal" could have repercussions given the background of the state (and other coal-producing states--Ohio, WV, northern Ky, western CO, MT) and given the strong support for so-called "clean coal" by Gov.s Rendell (PA) and Schweitzer (MT). I personally think it was unfortunate, unnecessary that Biden engaged the Catholic Bishop of Scranton in an abortion back & forth. I've always believed--and still believe--that we will hold Pennsylvania. Gov. Rendell is especially effective. But, some things don't make it any easier when the polling now shows the plus 2 to 4 range for Sen. Obama. Note: My recollection is that PA usually starts showing a clear Democratic trend by about now (around 5 to 7 or so) before settling down to a few points win in November.

    Interesting (none / 0) (#11)
    by MKS on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 12:51:40 PM EST
    I think you are right....McCain is spending a lot of time there.....Obama went there right after the convention....

    Florida is getting a lot of attention too....

    If Colorado goes blue, McCain's chances become very slim.

    The polling tends to support Jeralyn's approach on Palin.   I thought BTD's approach made sense and was logical, but Jeralyn is from Colorado and her instincts here may be right....Never go against the instincts of a good trial lawyer.

    Obama just needs to eke out a draw in the debate on Friday....McCain will cheat on the rules, talk about being a POW, and treat Obama dismissively.  Obama needs to understand it is street fight over sound bites, not an intellectual debate.  If he punches it up a little, he can get his draw....That could seal it....


    Pennsylvania (none / 0) (#37)
    by Eva8 on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 06:38:53 PM EST
    Actually, McCain could win Pennsylvania and still lose if Obama hangs on to Nevada and Virginia (in addition to his Kerry+IA+NM+CO likely scenario).

    Heh (5.00 / 0) (#12)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 12:52:57 PM EST
    Jeralyn speaks for her only. I refer folks to my post this morning - "It's the Economy, Stupid."

    Indeed (none / 0) (#14)
    by andgarden on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 12:54:28 PM EST
    Look at the issue crosstabs. Obama is cleaning up on the economy. PPP is reading their own results wrong.

    Could it be both? (none / 0) (#15)
    by MKS on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 12:58:33 PM EST
    It's not 2002 anymore, so it's the (5.00 / 0) (#16)
    by andgarden on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 01:02:55 PM EST
    economy again, stupid.

    IF you want it to be (5.00 / 0) (#19)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 01:06:34 PM EST
    it can be anything you want.

    In listing their top issues, Sarah Palin does not register at even 1%.

    When you bore into the numbers, you find that it is mostly Dems who SAY they are "less likely" to vote for McCain because of Palin. Since 90% of them were NEVER going to vote for Palin, you can do the math.

    "others" or independents say they are less likely by 2-1 accoridng to this poll. Note the MOE among Indies will be 8 or so for both numbers, so it is a pretty amorphous number.

    Look, it's the economy. It is. You must know that.


    Obama wins on the economy 61-34 (none / 0) (#17)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 01:03:36 PM EST
    51% says economy is the top issue. Next issue is Iraq, 18%.

    OK - so what are the men basing their (none / 0) (#20)
    by scribe on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 01:07:28 PM EST
    preference (48-40) for McCain on, then?

    Men are always more Republican (none / 0) (#21)
    by andgarden on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 01:08:35 PM EST
    I do not know (none / 0) (#22)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 01:09:30 PM EST
    Check the crosstabs on what men say are the most important issue.

    Could be that men are the bulk of the 34% who prefer McCain on the economy too.


    Question about record (none / 0) (#35)
    by christinep on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 06:25:20 PM EST
    How often has PPP polled in Colorado before?

    No, PPP speaks for itself (none / 0) (#24)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 01:11:41 PM EST
    this is about the poll and its findings. You may not like them, but I'm not speaking for myself here, I'm reporting the findings.

    IMO PPP is misreading its own results (none / 0) (#25)
    by andgarden on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 01:14:21 PM EST
    Well (none / 0) (#27)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 01:59:06 PM EST
    PPP seems to be playing to a certain crowd in that post quite frankly.

    It is rather silly.


    Indeed (none / 0) (#28)
    by andgarden on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 02:04:23 PM EST
    PPP and Ras are opposite sides of the same coin in that regard.

    Going through to the results is staggering (none / 0) (#1)
    by scribe on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 12:21:31 PM EST
    91 percent of the people say they are firmly committed to their choice of Presidential candidate, as opposed to 9 percent who say they could change their mind before the election.  And that split goes to 94-6 for women.

    Men go 40 Obama, 48 McSame
    Women go 46 McSame, 55 Obama

    And the more likely/less likely to vote McSame because of Palin bears out that men get blinded by Palin's flirting:

    more likely:  43, less likely: 44, no effect: 13

    more likely:  33, less likely:  50, no effect: 17

    McSame is so juvenile. (5.00 / 3) (#4)
    by rooge04 on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 12:32:40 PM EST
    The man has a name. And you can tie him to Bush without resorting to silly name-calling. I didn't like it when it was Slick willie and I don't like it when it's done to McCain either.  

    McSame is pretty tame (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 01:09:54 PM EST
    McCain is better than McSame but I'll leave it to readers. It's not a personal insult.

    Well, Barry is pretty tame (5.00 / 0) (#26)
    by rooge04 on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 01:16:27 PM EST
    too but I think that's underlying an insult. But that's just me I guess.

    There might be... (none / 0) (#32)
    by Thanin on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 03:50:20 PM EST
    an issue on this that I dont know about, making Barry an insult, but I think its kind of a cool nickname for him.

    Actually, it is. (none / 0) (#33)
    by rennies on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 04:33:38 PM EST
    Would you allow posters here to refer to the Democratic nominee as Obambi or such?

    ok (none / 0) (#6)
    by connecticut yankee on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 12:39:23 PM EST
    Of course.

    John Sidney McCain III it is.


    All of a sudden, CO is less a swing state (none / 0) (#2)
    by magster on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 12:28:37 PM EST
    than MN and NH.

    And then FL...

    All of a sudden? (none / 0) (#30)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 02:52:38 PM EST
    I beg to differ.  Some of us that live here who are not blinded by polls having been saying that Obama will win Colorado for quite some time now.

    I'm still not convinced of that (none / 0) (#31)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 03:00:15 PM EST
    I go back and forth. Again, I tend to look at data (voter registration, county populations and past election results) rather than polls.

    Experience (none / 0) (#36)
    by christinep on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 06:28:08 PM EST
    My experience of growing up and now living in Denver: Lets wait until mid-October.