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The Polls- 9/17

Ras has no change, 48-47 McCain. DKos/R2000 has no change, 48-44 (but overnight sampling had Obama by 5. Ras does not report his overnights.

Two bits of data make me think Ras is haviong some trouble with his polling. First he says that in his poll, McCain leads on the economy over Obama by 49-45 (Hotline has Obama up 20 on the economy). There is no other poll that has anything close to that result. The second bit of data is translating how McCain could lead on the economy and still only have a 1 point lead. This result seems implausible to me. Remember Ras uses a secret LV model, this is not an RV poll.

The R2000 poll has an interesting geographic point - Obama leads everywhere but the South, where McCain leads by 18 points. Obama leads by 23 in the Northeast (Pennsylvania?), by 8 in the West (the West Coast accounts for that no doubt - the Mountain West looks like a tie at best for Obama now) and by 9 in the Midwest (take your guess on that, Illinois will be big for Obama, but how is he doing in the other states.)

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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    That r2000 (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:03:03 AM EST
    poll sounds pretty selective as does Rasmussen on the economy. One poll, I forget which one had Obama ahead on the economy but not by 20 pts.

    RE : (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by az on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:18:56 AM EST
    Reuters/Zogby has Mccain leading on the economy by 2 , although Obama is ahead overall by 2...

    Gallup recently had Obama by 3 on the economy....

    Rasmussen and Gallup have been doing daily tracking For sometime now , I have no reason to doubt those two..

    Cell phones (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by DancingOpossum on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:23:30 AM EST
    Here they are again, the mysterious cell phone voters!

    Nope. Pollsters already control for this.

    These same cell-phone voters were supposed to save the Kerry campaign, too. How'd that work out?

    I know (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:41:47 AM EST
    For better or worse, the polls are what they are. There are no magical voters that are going to show up in Nov.

    Parent
    its all normal (none / 0) (#30)
    by connecticut yankee on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:27:18 AM EST
    Swings are quite normal.  The middle is squishy.

    Parent
    I find that to be true. . . (5.00 / 1) (#33)
    by LarryInNYC on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:40:41 AM EST
    The middle is squishy.

    . . . on a personal level as well.

    Parent

    However, population shifts -- it seems to me (none / 0) (#21)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:50:24 AM EST
    might make some difference in terms of the Electoral College.  For example, in my state that was the closest state in 2004 and second-closest in 2000, there has been a population incraase of 300,000 since then.  And apparently, moving mostly to suburbs that are Repub strongholds.  Maybe they're Dem and can turn their neighbors blue, too, but I somehow doubt that -- based on incredible increases in fundy churches, too.

    I have not seen reports that pollsters are taking into account any sizeable population shifts in more than Southwestern states, so I wonder whether they may be missing it in other states such as mine, with Rustbelt population loss apparently reversing, but the myth of that loss still is so prevalent in many reports I see.    

    Btw -- down the line, for future elections, it also could mean adjustments from the redistricting that comes every 10 years.  I.e., the 2010 census could mean my state, for one, regains a seat lost in the House and thus another delegate in the Electoral College, too.

    Parent

    Kathleen Sebelius confirms (none / 0) (#40)
    by TimNCGuy on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:51:33 AM EST
    that cell phone users are not polled.  Her two 20 something children have never had a land line since college and never been polled.  So, that confirms it.  

    She also started the "have you noticed Obama is black" routine again to explain the closeness of the polls

    Parent

    Really! (none / 0) (#60)
    by rennies on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 12:37:41 PM EST
    There are 300 million people in the United States. Why should Sibelius's kids getted polled. I've had a landline for 45 years and a cell for 13 years and nobody has ever polled me on either.

    Parent
    well apparently (none / 0) (#63)
    by TimNCGuy on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 12:50:56 PM EST
    she isn't going to believe the polls until they call her kids. Maybe she should send their cell numbers to Gallup.

    Parent
    When I was sloshing through another (none / 0) (#61)
    by hairspray on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 12:39:34 PM EST
    state than my own, knocking on doors for Kerry (whom I seriously doubted would win) I kept praying the cell phone voters would bring it home.  It didn't materialize.  What did materialize were all those church people in the rural areas.  I hope they are controlling for this.  When I read that the O campaign closed down the volunteer offices for downstate local dems and pulled those volunteers into the high volume Obama cities in Iowa, (desmoinesdem) I thought that was a big mistake.  They will be coming out of those small hamlets in droves.

    Parent
    Looks (none / 0) (#70)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 01:13:07 PM EST
    like the same strategy we had in 2004---try to jack up the cities to make up for losing everywhere else in a state. It never works. At least they're not wasting any more money here
    in GA.

    Parent
    Obama has a campaign office (none / 0) (#81)
    by jb64 on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 03:16:50 PM EST
    Here in Carrollton. The director guy said they weren't planning on going anywhere anytime soon.

    Parent
    I've (none / 0) (#83)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 03:22:22 PM EST
    read where he's pulling out of GA since he's losing by large numbers and he isn't meeting his fundraising goals.

    Parent
    Probably true (none / 0) (#94)
    by jb64 on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 06:55:15 AM EST
    Seems like a waste to me also since everybody around here loves them some Sarah.

    Parent
    Yeah (none / 0) (#82)
    by jb64 on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 03:20:44 PM EST
    but in 2004 there were about 9 states that had gay marriage bans up for referendum. I don't see that kind of thing happening this year. I'm sure that they'll still come on out to vote, but maybe not with the same enthusiasm as in '04

    Parent
    You have (none / 0) (#84)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 03:23:34 PM EST
    to remember too that some of those people who voted for the ban also voted for Kerry so it's not all one sided.

    Parent
    Yep, Wisconsin went strongly for the ban (5.00 / 1) (#85)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 03:38:37 PM EST
    on same-sex marriage but was the closest state, with Kerry less than half a point -- 11,400 votes -- ahead of Bush.  

    And this time, there are anti-affirmative action referenda as red flags in some states, as I recall.

    The Repubs run Roseanne Rosannadanna politics: There's always something.

    Parent

    I think Sarah Palin is their stealth (none / 0) (#90)
    by hairspray on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:45:40 PM EST
    strategy.  But, we do have a gay marriage ban vote in California and also a parental notification measure, so they think they can pull that on us again?  

    Parent
    Why on earth take seriously (5.00 / 0) (#11)
    by frankly0 on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:28:26 AM EST
    a poll like that of DKos, which has no proven track record, and whose only record is to show consistently higher numbers for Democrats than other polls?

    If you're going to ask the question of who is regarded as being better on matters of the economy, why not rely instead on proven polls, such as Gallup?

    And if you yourself believe that the DKos poll has a "house effect" favoring Democrats, why take it with the same seriousness as polls which don't have such biases? Isn't it perfectly obvious that "house effects" favoring one party or another, whatever they amount to, are going to translate into distorted internal numbers as well?

    One of the things that makes me feel some confidence with the Ras poll, even though it has the reputation of being Republican leaning, is that, from day to day, it may show a more or less favorable picture for Democrats as compared to the Gallup poll: some days, the gap of Gallup favors McCain more than Ras; other days, it's the other way around.

    Until the DKos poll reaches a state where that's true of it as well, it has little credibility in my mind. Who knows what kind of witches brew lies behind that "house effect"?

    There's no reason not to consider the... (none / 0) (#17)
    by EL seattle on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:44:43 AM EST
    ... the DKos poll as long as it's not muscling out discussion of other polls. (It's not like there are 25 polls being released every day right now.)

    I'd consider the DKos to be a "trial membership" sort of thing.  After a week or two, it should be clear whether or or not it's being well-run and on the up-and-up, or if there's some cherry picking going on with the released polling results there.

    Personally, I'd like to know how the top news of the day impacts polling.  I'd imagine that things like hurricanes and finacial crises could affect polling results (in unpredictable ways)depending on what part of a given day the samples are gathered on.  Are afternoon results different from evening results sometimes?

    Parent

    If a poll has no record of (none / 0) (#23)
    by frankly0 on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:53:16 AM EST
    reliability, then that is an excellent reason not to take it seriously. There could hardly be a better reason not to take it seriously.

    Just on top of everything else, such polls may have all kinds of glitches in their model that haven't yet been ironed out, because they don't have enough feedback. Good polling is, I should think, highly dependent on a long term process of adjusting models to correct for results one knows to be off. A new poll can't have the same level of feedback as one that's been around for a long time. It's basically like buying version 1.0 of new software -- likely full of bugs.

    Maybe DKos 1.0 will be improved into DKos 2.13 someday, and will be worth paying attention to. Now, though, not so much.

    Parent

    One other point (none / 0) (#25)
    by frankly0 on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:05:59 AM EST
    while people talk as though the "openness" of the DKos poll with regard to its internal numbers means that it must be good, because we can "verify" that those numbers strike us as reasonable, that really misses the point of what likely makes one poll better than another.

    Look, our own perspective on what a "reasonable" model is is, if we are honest with ourselves, quite completely naive. We can go to census figures, or other demographic/partisan data and analyses, and think we know how the model should be set up to achieve ideal results, but that is actually a simplistic approach. In fact, I'm sure, organizations such as Gallup have had a very long history in which they, no doubt, started from such supposedly "reasonable" models, and realized that it consistently skewed results in ways that they couldn't anticipate. They then corrected for those effects, adjusting the model so that the results were more in accord with reality. I have no doubt but that it's largely these counterintuitive adjustments that accounts for the greater reliability of polls such as Gallup's. Such adjustments are really the proprietary value of a Gallup poll, which I'm sure they guard jealously.

    It's not terribly different from the world of software, in that sense, where Open Source takes many, many years to catch up to the level of functionality of proprietary applications that have been worked over by companies for very long periods.

    Parent

    Just to blather a bit longer (none / 0) (#27)
    by frankly0 on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:15:05 AM EST
    on the subject, one comparison that strikes me as apt is that of Google.

    Google clearly regards its greatest corporate technical asset to be its proprietary search formula. But that search formula is based on an immense amount of feedback from customer searches -- data that no other search company can match in quantity. God only knows how many complex variables figure into that formula, and how much counterintuitive adjustment it has incorporated to get to its present state.

    An Open Source company could start out with its own formula, and invite people to contribute to it, based on what seems like reasonable assumptions to them. But the openness here, certainly in the short run, does very little. It's all about the feedback, and that feedback would not yet exist.

    Parent

    It's not Markos sitting on a phone calling up (none / 0) (#28)
    by JoeA on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:23:57 AM EST
    members of the public and then pulling numbers out of his a**.  The firm is conducted by Research 2000,  a respected polling firm with a good track record.

    By all means take the results with a pinch of salt given what seems to be a small D bias on the numbers,  having said that it's not a reason just to completely ignore them just because you a) don't like the sponsor, and/or b) don't like the results.

    Parent

    Missing the point (none / 0) (#42)
    by ks on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:57:02 AM EST
    R2000 may be reliable but the poll itself may not be yet.  It has only been around for two or so weeks and looking at it's results compared to the others, a small D bias or "house effect" is putting it kindly.  For eaxmple, today's negative net favoribilty rating for Palin seems, frankly, absurd.

    Parent
    though i read (none / 0) (#49)
    by TimNCGuy on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 11:04:20 AM EST
    on one of these poll posts yesterday that the dkos poll has a 10% advantage for dems meaning they poll 10% more dems than repugs.  But, latest data I have seen since the two conventions shows the self identification lead for dems is now only 5%.

    So, if they are polling 10% more dems and only coming up with a 4% Obama lead, that would worry me.

    Parent

    It would worry me if it was true. (none / 0) (#92)
    by JoeA on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 05:02:35 PM EST
    I suspect it isn't.

    Parent
    We're in that ... (5.00 / 2) (#18)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:46:35 AM EST
    "we believe the polls we want to believe" stage of the election.

    Sigh.

    My main focus right now is the size and movement of the undecided pool both in national and state polls. Obama's lead in national and state polls needs to cover 70% of the undecided spread before I feel comfortable that he's leading.


    If the economy.... (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by NYShooter on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:47:08 AM EST
    is a big factor helping Obama, how will the truly dramatic dive in oil prices affect things. Oil is down another 4 + dollars today to around $90, making the drop overall about $50.00. Those prices haven't fully reflected themselves at the pump yet because of the distruptions such as the hurricanes. Wouldn't substantially lower gas prices help McCain somewhat?

    Personally (none / 0) (#58)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 12:09:18 PM EST
    I think it would.

    Parent
    Wow. (none / 0) (#68)
    by Don in Seattle on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 01:06:48 PM EST
    Who knew "Drill, Baby, Drill" would pay off so handsomely, and so soon?

    Sarcasm, yes.

    Ga6thDem, if you think lower gas prices would help McCain, then I suppose you must think either:

    • High gas prices hurt McCain, or
    • All possible trends favor McCain.

    Which is it?

    Parent
    Don't (none / 0) (#69)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 01:09:52 PM EST
    you think lower gas prices help him and higher ones hurt him? Sorry, I refuse to be an apologist for any candidate. I call them like I see them.

    Is there any event that doesn't support Obama getting elected in a landslide in your opinion?

    Parent

    Normally (none / 0) (#71)
    by CST on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 01:17:06 PM EST
    I would agree with the high gas/low gas thing.

    But this low gas price comes with the economy collapsing.  So I don't think it will be as beneficial to McCain as it normally would.

    Mainly, I think a good economy/fincancial outlook helps the party in command.  And while low gas prices usually contribute to people feeling good about their financial situation, I think this time that is not the case, so it won't be as beneficial.

    Parent

    And I know that question wasn't to me (none / 0) (#72)
    by CST on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 01:20:19 PM EST
    But I think Obama not picking Hillary followed by McCain's picking Palin is the biggest reason why Obama probably wont win in a landslide.

    Also, if Kenya decides to bomb Virginia, that probably wouldn't work out too well for Obama either :)

    Parent

    Well (none / 0) (#75)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 01:25:35 PM EST
    you're making a good point about gas prices NOT having as much of an impact as they would normally.

    Anyway, I never bought into the Obama landslide fantasy but it seems lots of his supporters did.

    Right now I couldn't tell you who's going to win in Nov. If Obama can't get his numbers above the mid to high forties, then McCain is going to win. I'm betting that the vast majority of undecideds end up vote for McCain.

    Parent

    Much as I'd love to see one, (none / 0) (#73)
    by Don in Seattle on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 01:25:22 PM EST
    I don't expect a landslide win for Obama. I have never predicted one.

    I'd answer your lead question, too, if I could be sure who you mean by "him". I actually think high gas prices have helped McCain somewhat, because even if you don't think a gas tax "holiday" and more drilling are the answer, the average person at least knows what McCain's positions are.

    Parent

    On the surface (none / 0) (#77)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 01:27:07 PM EST
    lower gas prices help McCain. Now, you certainly can argue that it makes his case for drilling or whatever but I think that is secondary.

    Parent
    It hurts McCain and the GOP as the only (none / 0) (#93)
    by JoeA on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 05:26:49 PM EST
    domestic issue they were getting any traction on was Offshore Drilling.  This undermines that.

    Parent
    Yup, I doubt Obama is behind on economic (none / 0) (#2)
    by tigercourse on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:04:55 AM EST
    issues. Most polls I see show him well ahead on that, and well behind on National Security.

    Obama is pretty clearly a couple points ahead of McCain right now. I think the economic blood letting will certainly continue to help hip. This is basically our Bin Laden tape.

    It only (none / 0) (#3)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:09:22 AM EST
    helps if he quits riding the unity pony. He's climbed back on it again.

    Parent
    I was under the impression that Obama had (none / 0) (#4)
    by tigercourse on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:11:40 AM EST
    started lambasting Republicans for the current mess.

    Parent
    He was. (none / 0) (#20)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:49:26 AM EST
    He's back riding the unity pony now.

    Parent
    More info, please... (none / 0) (#51)
    by oldpro on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 11:05:25 AM EST
    Polling in the modern world (none / 0) (#5)
    by Lou Grinzo on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:13:05 AM EST
    If you listen to lefty radio (as I do during part of my work day), you hear two refrains constantly from callers: "No one ever polled me", and "Too many people don't have land lines for polls to be accurate".

    The first one is inane and should be ignored.  The second point is starting to look like a serious issue.  I personally have a land line in addition to a cell phone, but I know many people in their 20's who have only a cell phone, as well as a number of families (parents in their late 30's through late 40's, plus kids) who have ditched their land lines.  As the land line-less portion of the population grows, it becomes ever harder to adjust sample results to accurately reflect the underlying universe of voters.  Looking at those weird results about the economy (and the Siena Poll results I mentioned on this site yesterday), I have to wonder if we're hitting a critical mass in land line-less voters.

    If I were running a polling organization, I would have no idea how to deal with this.  Select people some other way?  How?  Find a better way to correct the sampling results for the unreachable voters?  Ouch.


    Plese see the report on this (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:29:59 AM EST
    at pollster.com, dealt with quite a while ago.  Pollsters not only have ideas on how to deal with this but have done so, tested it, etc.  Now, it may be arguable whether results in November will show that they have dealt with it sufficiently or correctly -- but see archives here, too, on whether this is some shocking newfangled thang worth bandwidth.

    Parent
    I seen several polling experts respond to this (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by esmense on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:31:37 AM EST
    They all use methods designed to take cell phone only users into account. My understanding is, polling experts do think cell phone usage will create a polling problem in the future, when a majority of people no longer have landline. But they are very confident about the compensating methods used to account for cell phone users at this point.

    Parent
    Gallup calls cell phones ... (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:58:12 AM EST
    and I believe other polling firms do as well.

    This is just not an issue really.

    Parent

    Didn't the Obama campaign collect a few (none / 0) (#62)
    by hairspray on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 12:46:49 PM EST
    million numbers during the convention?  Are they using that as internal polling?

    Parent
    Random digit dialing (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by Democratic Cat on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:41:56 AM EST
    ensures that you call cell phones as well as unlisted numbers. There could be different response rates for cell phone users because people might not answer a number they don't recognize if it costs them to answer on a cell phone. If those users have a different distribution of preferences for McCain and Obama, then it can cause bias in the results if left uncorrected.

    But you can correct for this. Suppose it is true that cell-only users who won't answer for an unrecognized number are young.  As long as you are reaching other young people (through landline and cell users who will answer) then you weight those responses more heavily in your final results because you know you are undersampling young people. You can look at the distribution of demographic characteristics in your sample and determine whther you are undersampling a part of the population.

    This simple re-weighting of responses will work unless young users who won't answer their cell differ systematically in their political opinions from young users who will answer their cell or landline. Then the problem is more complex. But pollsters deal with correcting for systematic differences among non-respondents all the time. It's not a new problem.

    Weird results in any particular poll are not an indication that the poll is invalid. You are sampling from a population over and over again. you are going to get some results from the tails of the distribution. You have to look at poll performance over time to judge whether the polling methods are valid.

    Parent

    Wonder if there is some way (none / 0) (#80)
    by ZtoA on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 02:24:40 PM EST
    for pollsters to utilize Facebook? Most cell users and young people are in Facebook.

    Parent
    The pollsters (none / 0) (#88)
    by Chisoxy on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:01:21 PM EST
    for the most part had no problem in the primaries. The most out of whack results where california and NH, both in Hillarys favor. This is, I think, easily compensated for by simply randomly generating the numbers called. It hasnt been a problem the last 2 elections, I dont see it suddenly being one now.

    Parent
    Oh, and just because (none / 0) (#6)
    by andgarden on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:15:21 AM EST
    John McCain should pay NO ATTENTION to the poll showing him way behind in New York. I want to see those ads Johnnny!

    Maybe (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:50:28 AM EST
    he'll do for NY what Obama has done for FL and GA?

    Parent
    GA is far more wasteful than FL (none / 0) (#26)
    by Faust on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:11:18 AM EST
    McCain must have national ad buys because (none / 0) (#7)
    by tigercourse on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:17:46 AM EST
    I've seen his "We're barely Republicans" ad a couple times.

    Parent
    On cable, probably (none / 0) (#9)
    by andgarden on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:22:20 AM EST
    They have both made national cable buys. But I think they haven't done national broadcast since the Olympics. That would be pretty wasteful.

    Parent
    Actually the ads don't admit they are Republican (none / 0) (#34)
    by Molly Bloom on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:40:50 AM EST
    and McCain Palin are clearly running against the GOP if you watch the original maverick commercials.

    Parent
    State polls, please. . . (none / 0) (#14)
    by LarryInNYC on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:40:21 AM EST
    It doesn't tell us much that Obama is ahead, for instance, by 9 points in the Midwest.  The election may well be decided there -- but a 9 point lead there could either mean a strong win or a dismal failing depending on which states the lead is in.

    ARG just released a batch (none / 0) (#15)
    by andgarden on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:41:40 AM EST
    But I don't believe ARG, so they're not worth reporting on.

    Parent
    With the exception of a MT and IL poll (none / 0) (#19)
    by tigercourse on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:49:14 AM EST
    they look about right. McCain is certainly up more than 2 in MT and Obama is certainly up more than 6 in IL.

    Parent
    "Minnewisowa" was identified long ago (none / 0) (#43)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:57:04 AM EST
    and well before the primary season began as probably the swing area in this election.  Obama's stand on ethanol has won him Iowa, it seems, so it probably would be "Minnewisota" now.

    That talk died down for a while with Obama's sweep of the Minnesota caucus and the crossover in the Wisconsin primary as well as with strong polls here -- until recently.  Now it may be that Minnesota and Wisconsin, the closest state last time, will be significant.  

    But I bet that it will be more a "Minnewisichigandianio" -- ugh!  I.e., maybe Minnesota and Wisconsin but Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio as well -- i.e., the "upper Midwest" with a sizeable proportion of the population and, of course, the Electoral College.

    And if it comes down to da Yoopers in upper Michigan, we're in for one weird election.  They make Palin's Alaskans look like a sedate citizenry:-)

    Parent

    I notice that those who claimed (5.00 / 1) (#54)
    by kenosharick on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 11:12:49 AM EST
    several weeks ago that it was over in Wis and Minn and that they were solidly in the win column for Obama are strangely silent on these states now. I know my home state and have said for months it will, once again, be razor thin in Wis.

    Parent
    I noticed Obama (none / 0) (#45)
    by Steve M on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 11:01:10 AM EST
    is pushing hard to be the "Great Lakes President."  Maybe he will have some credibility because he represents a bordering state himself.

    I assume this issue has at least some currency in Wisconsin.  Where I'm from, in Michigan, it is naturally the third, fourth, and fifth rail of politics.

    Parent

    maybe the (5.00 / 0) (#57)
    by TimNCGuy on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 11:25:07 AM EST
    push on Great Lakes was to shore up his support in Oregon?

    Parent
    I forgot that gaffe! Thanks for the laff(e) (none / 0) (#59)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 12:20:24 PM EST
    although perhaps it was to shore up his support in the twelve other states that were supposed to come from the North-West Territory, had we followed Jefferson's map.

    I would live in Assenissipia, as I recall from his map.  I am grateful that I do not. . . .

    Parent

    I think I know what you mean (none / 0) (#56)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 11:21:04 AM EST
    although your link doesn't work for me.  Is this his promise, which I saw reported in my paper today, of funding for Great Lakes research and restoration of water levels, shores, etc.?  Our gov likes that, as he's a big Obaman.  And there's other reasons to like it, too -- as tourism is the number-one business in Wisconsin.

    But it won't be liked by a lot of businesses.  They weren't Obama's voters, anyway, I suspect.  Nor will it be liked by a lot of burbs that are fighting my city for its Lake Michigan water to keep feeding their unconscionable urban sprawl on the other side of the great watershed here (their lands flow to the Mississippi) -- but those are red burbs that won't go for Obama, either.

    I can imagine it matters enormously in Michigan --the only state with four Great Lakes on its borders.  As for Wisconsin, with two Great Lakes, it merited more coverage than the brief it got today in my paper, the major paper in the state, but maybe it will get more in smaller papers upstate on the battered shores.  But I don't think that many of those areas will go for Obama for other reasons -- he's from Chicago, and Chicago also is the major cause of many problems for the Great Lake that you and we share.

    And above all, he seems more Eastern than Midwestern.  We'll have to see how that plays.

    Parent

    Palin now has net negative favorable opinion (none / 0) (#29)
    by magster on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:24:56 AM EST
    down from + 17 last week.  Like the Palin's position on the bridge to nowhere, voters were for her before they were against her.

    (McCain is sinking fast too).

    magster- are real polls saying (none / 0) (#55)
    by kenosharick on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 11:14:25 AM EST
    this also, or just dk?

    Parent
    Same trend on Hotline/Diageo (none / 0) (#79)
    by magster on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 02:10:01 PM EST
    What is the Midwest? (none / 0) (#31)
    by Steve M on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:35:41 AM EST
    To some people the Midwest means Michigan, to some people it means Oklahoma.  When pollsters talk about the Midwest, what actual states are they referring to?

    My question, too -- as I research and teach (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:49:04 AM EST
    about the Midwest.  So I have marvelously funny studies about what people think is the Midwest -- and then, of course, what they think about it.

    Btw, I and others who study it seriously start with the census definition of the Midwest.  That also works fairly well in terms of somewhat of a legacy in shared histories, at least once they became part of American history in the 1780s east of the Mississippi and after 1800 west of it.  

    So it includes the five states from the North-West Territory -- in order of Euro settlement (mainly French, as the Brits held them for only 20 years), that would be Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio (although Ohio, in typically Eastern-centric terms, calls itself the Gateway to the Midwest:-).  

    And it includes seven of the states from the Louisiana Purchase -- also in order of Euro settlement, that would be Missouri (although an outlier in other ways as the only slave state of the 12 -- although all had slavery, illegally) and Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and South and North Dakota.

    From all that, I can tell you that I don't think a lot of pollsters are using a census definition of the Midwest.  If they did, btw, the Midwest accounts for almost a fourth of the country's population -- mainly in the states east of the Mississippi.

    Parent

    Always wondered that (none / 0) (#32)
    by CST on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:40:29 AM EST
    I went to school in Pittsburgh, which I would definitely consider mid-west.  Philly, not so much.  My roommate from California constantly referred to Pittsburgh as the East Coast despite the fact that it was 6 hours from any coast, 30 minutes from West Virginia and Ohio, and definitely culturally NOT the east coast.

    So what's PA?  Probably the northeast b/c of Philly, but maybe it shouldn't be...

    Parent

    Yes, many studies note that (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:51:08 AM EST
    Pittsburgh -- and Buffalo -- more resemble the Midwest in their histories of immigrant settlement and some other factors.  But see below.:-)

    Parent
    Sixth Avenue. . . (none / 0) (#39)
    by LarryInNYC on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:51:27 AM EST
    What is the Midwest?

    Seventh -- around there.

    Parent

    when I lived in Ohio (none / 0) (#41)
    by TimNCGuy on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:55:10 AM EST
    it was referred to as the mid west. It never made any sense to me geographically. But, it does make sense "culturally".

    Parent
    Yes (none / 0) (#46)
    by CST on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 11:02:01 AM EST
    The mid-west is really the mid-east.  Or maybe the west-east.  Or maybe just mid.  It is definitely not geographically the mid-west.  Maybe when they came up with the name the west was still part of Mexico or something.

    Parent
    Nope, the term was coined in 1845 (none / 0) (#50)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 11:04:53 AM EST
    preceding the Mexican-American War.  For the reason why the region is defined as it is by the census today, see my comment re the Midwest's history as U.S. lands, i.e., the North-West Territory and the Louisiana Purchase.  

    Parent
    Yep, the first state from the North-West (none / 0) (#47)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 11:02:26 AM EST
    Territory, so that's the geography of it, although it was the last state in the Midwest with "Euro" aka American settlement.  Its proximity to the East made it the first state more than other factors.  And it shares the history of being part of Nouvelle France before, although it was atypical in having hardly any French Canadian settlement.  But it is typically Midwest in many other ways, too -- if there is a typicality to the very complex Midwest at all.:-)

    Parent
    Actually Cincinnati and a few other southerly (none / 0) (#67)
    by hairspray on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 01:02:00 PM EST
    cities are south of the Mason Dixon line.  I thought Ohio was midwest until I lived in Cinnci during the '90's.  They really hated Clinton and were very conservative. They were very bible belt people IMHO.  They may have been German immigrants, but they were not midwest as my Minnesota friend reminded me consistently.

    Parent
    Delaware (5.00 / 1) (#89)
    by daring grace on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:20:03 PM EST
    Very briefly, in the 1970s, I lived in Delaware and was surprised to learn that the southern part of the state was below the M-D Line.

    This was told to me proudly--a youthful hippie--hitchhiking one day and getting picked up by a good'ol boy in a pickup with guns in the rack behind, cackling and waiting for my reaction, which was, as I said, surprised.

    Anyway, it was a fun ride. And geographically educational, finding out how far north the south actually came--in cartography and in spirit.

    Parent

    No, Cincinnati is north of the Mason-Dixon line (none / 0) (#86)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 03:42:15 PM EST
    since Ohio was.  Cincinnati was across the Ohio River from slavery and thus was one of the great crossing points for the Underground Railroad.  See the famed Margaret Garner case there, and see also a li'l novel called Uncle Tom's Cabin. . . .

    No part of Ohio had legal slavery since 1784, since Ohio was in the North-West Territory under the North-West Ordinance, the remarkable document from a Congress that could not pass a Constitution that banned slavery but did pass the ban in its new territory, anyway.

    Of course, every state in the Midwest had illegal slavery.  But that's another matter, and it doesn't move the Mason-Dixon line.

    Parent

    Wow! Another fact I just assumed was correct (none / 0) (#91)
    by hairspray on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:50:47 PM EST
    because no one disabused me of it until now. I never was much good at early American history. My field was science.

    Parent
    According to the Census Bureau... (none / 0) (#44)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:57:40 AM EST
    The Midwestern United States (also called the Midwest, the Middle West, and The Heartland) is one of the four geographic regions within the United States of America that are officially recognized by the United States Census Bureau. The region consists of twelve states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin.
    --Wiki

    Parent
    Excellent (none / 0) (#48)
    by Steve M on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 11:02:51 AM EST
    So I've basically been right all these years!  Good ol' Big Ten Country.

    Parent
    Except that now Penn is in the Big Ten (none / 0) (#52)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 11:05:45 AM EST
    to the dismary of scholars who found the football borders useful, too. :-)

    Parent
    The original Big 10... (none / 0) (#53)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 11:07:56 AM EST
    ...plus some Big 12 thrown in for good measure.  I always thought that adding Mizzu to the Big Ten instead of Penn State made more sense--less travel, tradional border opponents, etc.

    Parent
    I know the Big Ten is bigger than (none / 0) (#64)
    by oculus on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 12:52:29 PM EST
    10 at present, but . . . North and South Dakota?

    Parent
    It may be back to 10... (none / 0) (#66)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 12:56:56 PM EST
    ...if Michigan keeps playing like they are!  :>)

    Parent
    U of M--the new Notre Dame. (none / 0) (#74)
    by oculus on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 01:25:31 PM EST
    Well (none / 0) (#76)
    by Steve M on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 01:26:30 PM EST
    North and South Dakota don't have actual inhabitants, so you can pretty much just lump them in anywhere.

    Parent
    Kind of like Alaska, I guess. (none / 0) (#78)
    by oculus on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 01:27:49 PM EST
    Alaska is one big hoppin' metropolis (none / 0) (#87)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 03:43:51 PM EST
    compared to North Dakota.  They both share, though, the distinction of being great welfare states.  North Dakota is still in the New Deal.:-)

    Parent
    New Gallup Daily: Obama 47%, McCain 45% (none / 0) (#65)
    by Don in Seattle on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 12:53:36 PM EST
    September 17, 2008

    The Sept. 14-16 Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows Barack Obama with 47% support among registered voters, and John McCain with 45%; although not a statistically significant lead for Obama, this marks the first time since the week of the Republican National Convention that McCain has not held at least a slight edge.

    The trend is your friend.