FL, OH, PA Polls
The new Quinnipiac polls for Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania are mostly encouraging for John McCain. How can that be? you might ask. McCain trails in all 3 states according to Q. Here's why - Barack Obama has lost ground in these 3 states.
First of all, I do not believe Obama is leading in Florida. In fact, since he is not going to pick Hillary Clinton, I do not think he has a chance in Florida. The crosstabs tell the tale in my opinion. Two key numbers - Obama leads with women NOW 47-42 (not enough, McCain will win men by more than the 47-45 the Q poll is showing.) He will lose women, especially in South Florida, when he does not pick Hillary. McCain leads with white voters 53-39. He will lead by more than that come November, especially if he does not pick Hillary. Obama will not win Florida. More . . .
In Ohio, Q has had Obama ahead always, running counter to many other Ohio polls. But again the crosstabs tell the tale:
Obama gets 47 percent of Ohio women likely voters, to McCain's 44 percent. Men split with 46 percent for Obama and 45 percent for McCain. White voters back McCain 49 - 42 percent, but Obama sweeps black voters 89 - 2 percent. The Democrat also leads 57 - 35 percent among voters 18 to 34 and 48 - 44 percent among voters 35 to 54, while McCain leads 48 - 41 percent among voters over 55.
When Obama does not pick Hillary, he will lose support among women and white voters. He will NOT beat McCain among men in my opinion. Obama will not win Ohio because he will not choose Hillary.
Pennsylvania looks solid for Obama. McCain can not overcome what George Bush has wrought.
Obama still wins the election because he will flip Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado for sure. But there is no reason why it should be this close. His stubborn refusal to pick Hillary Clinton, his insistence in causing political trouble for himself with the VP pick, will make this a closer election than it should be. The political obtuseness on this critical decision is amazing to me.
By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only
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