If GW can win two terms, McCain can win.  

Obama, despite the 24/7 news coverage, is still basically undefined in Voters' eyes.  And this "who is he really?" attitude is evident in the polling, although I tend to discard those this far out as well.

The problem with being undefined at this stage in the game eg. being the presumptive Nominee is that the Opponent then has September, October and the first week of November to negatively define him.  And the American People quickly tire of "shoo ins".  They prefer nasty train wrecks especially if it involves someone who's scaled the heights and is a "favorite".

Expect the Media to turn on Obama with a vengeance once he's the Actual Nominee and expect the majority of Americans to eat up all the salacious, titillating details with a spoon.

In fact, one of several media narratives has already begun:  

John McCain as "David" -- not as well-funded and not as popular -- going against Obama's rock star "Goliath" -- incredibly well-funded and beloved, but inexperienced.  Being the underdog, McCain's come-from-behind story arc (mid-October, I'd say) will meld quite beautifully into the Public's need to see the "mighty" fall -- or continue their rapid descent -- off their pedestal while the "average guy" who's "scraping by" rises to the challenge and "wins" in the end.

In Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Florida, Republican John McCain has been running a TV ad for the past couple weeks showing McCain at a 2007 Republican presidential debate, extolling the military service of non- citizen Hispanic immigrants, and calling them "God's children."

During the speech, the camera cuts away from McCain to then-candidate Tom Tancredo, who looks rather dour. Marc Ambinder, an on-line columnist for The Atlantic, perceptively noted on July 11 that the Tancredo shot is far from unintentional.

The shot is what's known as a "dog whistle" - a political term of art first used in the 1990s in Australia. It means using a phrase (or a picture) that may have little significance to the general audience, but which appeals to a select group which knows the special meaning...

As Bush dog-whistled Christians who believe that America has a special mission from God, so McCain is dog-whistling pro-illegal alien supporters, who believe Tancredo is the devil incarnate. McCain does not use words to tell the broader audience about his long record of opposition to cracking down on illegal immigration; rather he quietly conveys that position via the Tancredo dog whistle.

The problem for Obama is that his entire appeal to voters is based on his personal characteristics -- his image as presented by the campaign. Voters have to decide that he can and will do what they think needs to be done in their best interest and that of the country based on who they hope he is rather than what they know he has done and has demonstrated he can do.

The large number of still undecided and in many cases still unengaged voters, who are in general the least partisan voters, not only have to get to know him, they also have to become believers.

That's a high hurdle. One that would probably be too high without the significant failures of and disgust with the party currently in power and/or with a marginally better candidate on the other side.

For that reason Obama is especially vulnerable to the opposition's effort to destroy his image and create distrust of him personally. An effort that has not yet kicked into anything like high gear yet, but that is sure to do so at some point.

Obama's campaign is quite sophisticated -- at both image making and in protecting that image. But there isn't much new and dramatic they can do in terms of postive image making at this point -- he doesn't have any new arguments to make for himself. Or many dramatic new moves he can make. His VP pick isn't likely to add much excitement because, with such a personality based campaign, he can't make a VP pick that could upstage him. The rest of his campaign will depend on his performance in the debates and will be spent hoping that as the undecideds become familiar with the image he's established they too will become believers -- which basically means spending a lot of time defending himself against negative attacks. While also, of course, attacking McCain negatively.

Mama, Mama, dem hold Papa
Seh dem hold him fe smoke ganja
If mi never jump two fence, dem hold mi too
So tell mi Mama, whatcha gonna do?

I understand the rational.  And so far it's worked for Obama.

Check it out.