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Sunday Mid-Day Open Thread

Ryan Lizza has a long article in the New Yorker on How Chicago shaped Obama. I haven't read it yet, but will update later this afternoon after I've had a chance to go through it.

Update: SusanG at Daily Kos has a review of Arianna Huffington's new book, Right is Wrong.

This is an open thread. Have a great Sunday.

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  • Display: Sort:
    Hillary & Flag Burning (5.00 / 2) (#2)
    by BackFromOhio on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:06:06 PM EST
    It is my understanding that Hillary's flag-burning bill merely provided that it is unlawful to burn someone else's flag.

    In a way to provoke (5.00 / 2) (#9)
    by Edgar08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:32:17 PM EST
    Think burning a rainbow flag at a gay pride parade.

    Burning an Irish flag at a St. Patrick's day parade.

    I can't think of a progressive who doesn't support making those things illegal.

    Burning an American flag at a 4th of July parade?  That's where people start debating free speech.


    [ Parent ]

    Is the earth going (5.00 / 3) (#26)
    by jondee on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:52:02 PM EST
    to shift disasterously on it's axis if anyone ever entertains the notion that HRC ever did anything strategically to garner favor from the Right?

    Apparently.

    This is one of the problems with turning public figures immersed in a deeply flawed system into idealized fantasy figures: they have to be made to adhere at all times and all places to our highest standards even when they dont.

    [ Parent ]

    I agreed with her legislation (5.00 / 3) (#29)
    by Edgar08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:55:35 PM EST
    Not the caricature of it people whined about on the internet.

    If she wants to write a book telling people what her inner motivations were and that she supported the legislation (NOT a constitutional amendment) to curry favor from the right, that's her call.


    [ Parent ]

    Im still waiting for someone (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by jondee on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:56:11 PM EST
    to introduce a cross burning amendment.

    [ Parent ]
    Supposedly (5.00 / 4) (#41)
    by daring grace on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:05:36 PM EST
    according to someone on the other thread where I raised this issue, Clinton's aim in sponsoring this bill was even more (pragmatically) commendable than "strategically garnering favor with the right". It was pointed out that her bill, which was defeated, served to take the wind out of the sails of the more dangerous anti flag burning amendment.

     

    [ Parent ]

    And who (none / 0) (#48)
    by jondee on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:12:26 PM EST
    was sponsoring an anti flag burning amendment?

    [ Parent ]
    And her aim (5.00 / 1) (#56)
    by jondee on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:25:00 PM EST
    in going along unquestioningly with the "bad intelligence" was to protect us from the implications of worse intelligence. But, all those who have already taken the leap of faith already know this -- intuitively, if not empirically.

    [ Parent ]
    Obama hasn't said (5.00 / 1) (#153)
    by Josey on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 07:45:41 PM EST
    how he would have voted in Oct. 2002 if terrorists had attacked the Sears Tower.
    We only know that once he was elected to the Senate, he began voting to fund a war he "opposed."

    [ Parent ]
    It wasn't unquestioningly (5.00 / 2) (#155)
    by Edgar08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 07:50:55 PM EST
    It was a conflicted vote.  A difficult vote.  HEY!  What does that remind you of?????

    Or does Barack Obama want to spy on Americans?

    Let's hear all about Barack Obama's unquestioning support of Bush spying on Americans.

    Lest you turn yourself into a pretzel made out of a slinky.  

    [ Parent ]

    Hatch (5.00 / 3) (#59)
    by daring grace on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:40:40 PM EST
    with 59 co-sponsors including Democrats

          Sen Baucus, Max  [MT]
          Sen Dayton, Mark [MN]
          Sen Feinstein, Dianne [CA]
          Sen Johnson, Tim [SD]
          Sen Rockefeller, John D., IV [WV] -
          Sen Salazar, Ken [CO]

    And two Repubs in the news....Sens McCain, John [AZ] and Hegel, Chuck (NE)

    [ Parent ]

    Geez, half the (5.00 / 1) (#64)
    by gyrfalcon on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:50:03 PM EST
    Republican Party.

    [ Parent ]
    Here's A Progressive (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by daring grace on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:00:17 PM EST
    who would never support making those things illegal.

    Because the freedom to speak and dissent in unpopular ways, even in ways considered 'disrespectful' or unpatriotic is a cornerstone of the freedoms the American flag supposedly represents.

    [ Parent ]

    I don't (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by Edgar08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:02:40 PM EST
    I think people have a right to have a parade without people showing up and burning flags.

    We disagree then.  That's cool.


    [ Parent ]

    Yeah (none / 0) (#43)
    by daring grace on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:08:46 PM EST
    And I can certainly relate to your position.

    My own fierce interpretation of the first amendment has often positioned me to defend the rights of clowns and provocateurs whose heads I (usually a placid post menopausal woman) would dearly love to pound on.

    [ Parent ]

    Wasn't her amendment (5.00 / 3) (#63)
    by BackFromOhio on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:48:41 PM EST
    the equivalent of saying it's illegal to destroy someone else's property?  I posted because Hillary's flag-burning bill was being cited in other posts today as an example of Hillary's centrism when, imo, it is not.

    [ Parent ]
    I know it's not (5.00 / 2) (#69)
    by Edgar08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:53:53 PM EST
    People are just playing overton window games with Clinton.

    [ Parent ]
    Protest is meant to provoke... (none / 0) (#170)
    by kdog on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 09:19:02 PM EST
    I guess I'm not progressive, making flag burning illegal is as silly as making bra burning illegal...or toilet paper burning illegal for that matter.

    [ Parent ]
    Not Gonn Work (none / 0) (#172)
    by Edgar08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 09:40:48 PM EST
    Apply some context.

    You wanna burn an American flag at an anti-war rally??? fine!

    You wanna jump into the middle of the street during a 4th of july parade or run onto the field at a little league baseball game and burn an American flag, I not only say that's NOT thought provoking, maybe that's violence provoking, I say law enforcement can put a stop to it.

    That's my opinion.

    People can disagree.  Just don't mis-represent my opinion to other people as if I think I'm making it illegal in ALL contexts OK?

    THANKS!

    Let me give some more background so you understand where I'm coming from.  I was still in high school and my dad and I went to New York to see some theater.  We got on a subway and right before the doors closed this guy got on and then started shouting some political screed.   Of course we're all trapped on the subway car.  

    Now I'd put on a uniform and fight for that man's right to express himself on a blog or even congregate with like minded people.  But I was glad when the authorities dragged him out of the car three stops down the line.

    In case my position on this issue was unclear.  


    [ Parent ]

    And you're enititled to it.... (none / 0) (#173)
    by kdog on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 10:00:29 PM EST
    I didn't mean to put words in your mouth bro.

    Me?  I'd place no such restrictions on the right to protest.

    Maybe the little league is purchasing uniforms from sweat-shops, maybe the 4th of July parade is sponsored by a corporation polluting the local waterways.  Besides...I occasionally pitch in helping my brother coach little league, if some nut jumps on the field and tries to burn a flag we won't need a law against flag burning to put a stop to it.  I don't think any little league in America would.

    I'd never burn a flag and I'd say it's wrong 99% of the time do so, but allowing the state to restrict such an act in anyway is 100% wrong in my book.

    Certain unpleasantness at times is one of the costs of freedom...like witnessing a flag you hold dear burned or being a captive audience in a subway car for some knuckleheads political rant.  It ain't free, as they say.

    [ Parent ]

    Well I disagree (none / 0) (#174)
    by Edgar08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 10:05:47 PM EST
    I have a right to sit in a public park and read my "democracy for the few" in peace and quiet, thanks!

    [ Parent ]
    There is no right to.... (5.00 / 1) (#175)
    by kdog on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 10:14:51 PM EST
    peace and quiet in a public park, but that's a whole other debate we won't agree on:)

    I might be one bench over tapping my drum while my buddy strums his guitar.  Now if you asked like a gentleman if we could find another spot we'd surely accomodate you, but call over the cops and we've got problems my man.

    Who am I kidding...odds are I'm holding...call the cops and you win:(

    [ Parent ]

    What if I just (none / 0) (#176)
    by Edgar08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 10:17:47 PM EST
    turn on my boom box, turn the volume up to 10 and sit down right next to you??

    that's my free speech, man.

    [ Parent ]

    Party on.... (none / 0) (#186)
    by kdog on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 10:22:38 AM EST
    I will either start groovin' with ya or move along...it's a big world and there's room for everybody to get their swerve on.

    [ Parent ]
    actually (none / 0) (#188)
    by Edgar08 on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 10:52:32 AM EST
    there are codified laws about these sorts of things, the supreme court up holds them. Although I would have liked to tell the cops that my music was political protest when my neighbors complained, I know I have no legal foundation to say so.

    But I admire the extent to which you are willing to accept the rudeness of others as a part of life for this principle of yours.

    But remember.  No one can be silenced for the opinion they express.  This principal of mine only applies to the extent to which someone has a right to disrupt someone else's life with that self-expression.

    Hey.  Is spam free speech?

    [ Parent ]

    Disruption.... (none / 0) (#189)
    by kdog on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 12:14:51 PM EST
    that's probably where our disagreement stems from, the definition of a disruption worthy of state interference.

    To me a noisy neighbor, a spam email, a telemarekting call...they are annoyances, but not enough of a disruption to merit state interference.  I'd say state interference is only justified when somebody physically disrupts you...grabs you by the arm for example.  That or trespassing on private property.

    [ Parent ]

    I Wasn't Going To Do This (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by daring grace on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:54:16 PM EST
    in the interests of not continuing a discussion that is more sharply divisive than I like to participate in here.

    But since I was the one who raised the issue of flag burning on the other thread, I want to clarify a few things.

    For me, as a liberal/leftie, the reason the flag burning issue is so hot button is rooted in the way the Dems (who've always presented themselves as the major party that is most progressive) surrendered the issues of patriotism and 'family values' during the morally bankrupt debates of the 'Moral Majority' era.

    Rather than wade into the right wing's specious and sneering attacks on liberal ideas and values with any number of effective counter attacks or re-framing of the debate, the Dems caved. Big time, they caved, ceding important strategic ground to the Repubs and the right wing, ground they have held, to some extent ever since. I'm not  saying we could have completely defeated them on this. Probably not. But it's taken the Democrats too long to even try.

    This was all in explanation for why I felt Senator Clinton is centrist, not left. It was pointed out to me that she sponsored this legislation in response to a far worse constitutional amendment, and that her bill (which was defeated as well) effectively killed off the amendment. Fair enough, but irrelevant to my argument. My point was not that Clinton was a rabid anti first amendment advocate (i.e. ignoring the idea that flag burning is protected speech/dissent). Mine was that this kind of strategic engagement is pure centrist practice. Does that make it bad? Only if you believe centrism is bad. I don't. I chafe against its excesses (!) sometimes, but years of this has the dominant pulse in what passes for the left in electoral politics as made a (shudder) pragmatist out of me. Not in my heart. Not in my thinking. But in the way I vote and the way I choose who to support. What, you thought I believed Obama was progressive? HA!

    For me, with HRC in a safe senate seat, I have the luxury of indulging my disgust at this and not voting for her. If she is ever seriously challenged, I'll almost certainly hold my nose and vote for her, as I would have done were she now the nominee for president. Her first time around, I wholeheartedly and enthusiastically supported her, impressed with her campaign and (probably) unreasonably projecting my own leftie expectations on her.

    She's a great, hardworking senator, but on many issues important to me, she is no flavor of leftie.

    [ Parent ]

    Progressivepunch folks would disagree with you (5.00 / 2) (#50)
    by andrys on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:14:10 PM EST
    You might have been happier with her than you think.

    What's ironic about this race is that the one people convinced themselves was most 'progressive' has not been talking that way at all now that he talks at all beyond the hope/change/turn-page things (and beyond making speeches about race).  As he's said, he is a blank slate upon which people could project what they wished.

    And he's "post-partisan" which Dems normally are proudly not, since the prevailing philosophies of both main parties have been worlds apart.

    Progressivepunch does rather in-depth analysis of their actual votes.

    Barack's progressive score: 88.05% 88.05 Rank: 25/100

    Hillary's progressive score: 90.82% Rank: 20/100

    (Lots of breakdowns to study there.)

    [ Parent ]

    Yeah, and Obama's the Most Liberal Senator (5.00 / 1) (#65)
    by daring grace on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:50:07 PM EST
    right? Or one of them? Oh, boy...

    Admittedly, I don't keep track of these kinds of ratings because I can usually tell whether I agree with a pol or not without them.

    If Clinton had been the senator from Illinois, I would know her record less well since I have mostly kept up on it since she's my senator.

    But I NEVER believed Obama was/is progressive or more progressive than HRC. They're pretty close by the ratings you present which is probably why I can vote for either for president without too much stress. So far...FISA started the stress clock ticking...

    [ Parent ]

    Yes, that's a stressor (5.00 / 6) (#84)
    by andrys on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 02:14:42 PM EST
    The point for me was when he so coldly stood there and said that late-term abortion shouldn't be allowed for mothers for the reason of 'mental distress' because it should be a physical reason only.

      Current Supreme Court rulings in effect, including R vs W, allow for non-physical reasons.  Why would have have to say something in favor of weakening these rights?

      There was a sort of judgmental point of view I really didn't care for and it fits too well with his latest other things, like more money (and training on how to get more government money) for faith-based groups who might even have a cabinet member someday.  Just something he didn't exclude as a possibility.

    [ Parent ]

    Daring Grace (5.00 / 5) (#98)
    by gyrfalcon on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 03:05:00 PM EST
    if you're going to make a case for your opinion, you need to find some other examples than the flag-burning bill because it simply doesn't fit.

    I totally with you that the constant caving to right-wing "values" and framing is not just disgusting but strategically stupid, as well.

    But we also sometimes, on an emergency basis, have to prevent some of this stuff actually getting written into the law, and worse, into the Constitution, as the flag-burning nonsense threatened to be.

    Strategically, it made no sense to just let the Republicans to do this, particularly since there were quite a few red-state Dems in the Senate who clearly felt they would have to vote for it.

    Hillary's gambit was pretty darn smart, if you ask me-- put out a flawed bill that was almost certain not to pass to enable the right-wingers and the Dem. cowards to say they voted against flag-burning and derail both the amendment and the chance of real flag-burning bill passing.

    THis is exactly what I want Dems. to be smart enough to do, use procedural maneuvers and tactics to keep very bad law off the books.

    I doubt this was Hillary's idea, but she stepped up and was willing to sponsor it and take the hit from folks like you for doing it, and I for one applaud her for it.


    [ Parent ]

    Fair Enough (5.00 / 1) (#160)
    by daring grace on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 08:00:14 PM EST
    I appreciate your point which significantly expands on one made earlier (in the other thread) about the pragmatic value of this move. Now that I'm hearing this explanation here I recall it from the time of the vote too.

    I think I've overtalked this issue at this point so I'm not going to add anything to (what feels like mountains of stuff) I've already written. I'll bet others here are finding my continuing to weigh in on this at least as tedious as I'm starting to.


    [ Parent ]

    Heh (none / 0) (#179)
    by gyrfalcon on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:04:52 AM EST
    I've pursued it only because I think I probably share your general politics, being a good deal more to the left than most folks, and because I've also been maddened by the cowering behavior of most Dem. politicians.  I just don't think Hillary has done much of that.

    [ Parent ]
    I Appreciate Your Asking (none / 0) (#185)
    by daring grace on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 09:54:36 AM EST
    and ordinarily I'm brimming over with opinions and breathless to share them and to sparring in contrarian waters.

    But around the issue of HRC, I tread a little lightly here because I sincerely don't come here to debate the pros and cons of her, her positions, her campaign, etc.

    Also, Clinton is NOT the worst of the Dem accommodators--not by a long shot. But then she's represents New York and not Colorado or Montana.

    Thsn I look at Feinstein and think: What the heck is wrong with her??

    [ Parent ]

    I guess this is (none / 0) (#144)
    by pie on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 06:27:51 PM EST
    "Make Hillary palatable to those with CDS, because she may be the VP pick."

    Cynic that I am...

    At least BTD will be proven @#$%*& right.

    :)

    [ Parent ]

    Polls tightening a bit (5.00 / 0) (#7)
    by Cream City on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:29:36 PM EST
    Rasmussen still has it as a tie, but it's Rasmussen.  That put the realpolitics.com average at 4.0.

    Now Gallup's tracking poll tightens a tad to a three-point margin for Obama.  The average will drop below four points -- and that's about half what it was only a few weeks ago.

    Polls, schmolls at this point in terms of November.  But they, especially when "they" in the aggregate and averaged, can be telling in terms of trend lines.  A little more time may tell.

    With Dem candidates leading, in general, (5.00 / 2) (#24)
    by andrys on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:51:23 PM EST
    by 20% or so, a tie or a lead for prez top slot (with a McCain seeming totally confused and lost too often) well within the margin of error should be worrisome.  I do expect McCain's idiotic statements about social security will gain Obama some points by next week.

    But, this is at a time when McCain has seemed really weak.

     Bear in mind the last 15 primary races and how polls had Obama winning in several states but he lost by some rather large margins, including the final South Dakota one in which his campaign had thought they'd win by 8 points but he lost by 10 (which they rather frantically covered ahead of time by telling superdelegates to join now, before the primaries completed that day, or not be "remembered" by Obama -- and so his last unexpected loss faded away w/o publicity to the taunts that Clinton did not concede that same night though other candidates have taken 4 months to do that and some not at all.

      A loss in Kentucky was expected, by about 8 points, but it turned out to be about 35 points.  Don't even mention W.Va which no poll came close to.

      We've decided, as a group, to gamble in a really big way.

      And they should never blame Clinton if he does wind up losing.  People wanted to gamble -- the hope/change thing.
    Few expected him to clarify his ability to shift quite so soon, even before the official nomination.

    [ Parent ]

    With McCain changing up his campaign (5.00 / 2) (#30)
    by PssttCmere08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:55:52 PM EST
    people, maybe we should be looking for him coming out like the little bull he can be....I don't think he is going to make it that easy for obama.

    [ Parent ]
    Doubt It (5.00 / 4) (#40)
    by JimWash08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:05:01 PM EST
    I do expect McCain's idiotic statements about social security will gain Obama some points by next week.
    But even if he does gain some, it'll be negligible.

    Obama's got as much of his left foot in his mouth as McCain's got his right. And both of them have surrogates with terrible foot-in-the-mouth disease.

    At the rate that each of them has gaffes on a weekly basis, I'm almost inclined to believe it's in one ear and out the other with the average voter.

    Not everyone's like us; scouring blogs and polls and keeping tallies of who said what and when.

    The one true test, and the most reliable poll, comes on Nov. 4. Everything else can be taken with a grain of salt. Pollsters and newsmen have unbelievable biases that color their work. Believe it.

    [ Parent ]

    Howard Fineman today said (none / 0) (#67)
    by BackFromOhio on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:52:31 PM EST
    on Chris Matthews show that Obama must win Ohio to win the presidency; his statement was part of a discussion of Obama's "new map."


    [ Parent ]
    Well, BTD's World's Best Pollster (none / 0) (#165)
    by Cream City on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 08:31:06 PM EST
    is the most recent poll on Ohio and has Obama up by only a 2-point margin.  So that's not good.  However, the poll is a few weeks old.  Odd that there is no more recent polling of Ohio, if it is (and I think so, too) to be so significant.

    [ Parent ]
    What did McCain say about SS? (none / 0) (#85)
    by nycstray on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 02:16:04 PM EST
    and when?

    [ Parent ]
    It's a "disgrace" (5.00 / 0) (#114)
    by MKS on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 04:02:55 PM EST
    to have current wage earners paying for the retirees.....

    .....which has always been the case and is the  basic premise behind social security.

    ....said last week

    [ Parent ]

    A ponzi (none / 0) (#119)
    by Wile ECoyote on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 04:41:15 PM EST
    scheme, sure to fail as they all do.

    [ Parent ]
    And few people mention (none / 0) (#167)
    by andrys on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 08:42:43 PM EST
    that those (or we) dastardy retirees paid into Social Security for usually over 45 years, on behalf of other people.

      It's more like old-fashioned Christian-like social community (or like coop housing/living where you're forced to pay maintenance fees etc in cooperation with all so that all benefit if they live long enough) than a Ponzi one, generations helping one another.

      Our ancestors were so forward-looking...

    [ Parent ]

    Been thinking about this one and (none / 0) (#178)
    by Valhalla on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 02:45:11 AM EST
    his statement (which is factually incorrect and I detest) may be appealing to the younger crowd.

    A lot of Obama's appeal has been characterized as playing to intergenerational resentment -- younger folks blaming older folks for not presenting them with a better economic climate.  Add in a lack of reasoning skills and I can see McCain picking up some votes with this.

    Of course, he'd also lose a lot of older people's votes and votes from all the middle-agers like me who've been paying in but have little prospect of seeing a return if privatizing Soc Sec regains its traction.  But that doesn't mean it won't appeal to younger people resenting having to 'support' their elders.

    [ Parent ]

    Please, if you're going to quote (none / 0) (#182)
    by zfran on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 09:28:53 AM EST
    someone, i.e. McCain, please get it right McCain on ss

    [ Parent ]
    Huh? (none / 0) (#187)
    by squeaky on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 10:29:49 AM EST
    Am I missing something here? Did you think MKS misrepresented what McSame said?

    Seems 100% accurate to me. Sounds like you are defending McCain's absurd statement here as something reasonable.

    [ Parent ]

    Rasmussen (5.00 / 0) (#68)
    by Valhalla on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:52:35 PM EST
    I keep hearing that Ras is conservative (meaning Repub leaning0, but they had Obama up by 4-6 points for weeks at the same time Gallup had them separated by much less.  

    In general, I've found that the analyses that accompany their polling results use slightly more positive language toward Obama than McCain.  (their language toward Clinton went the other direction).

    I haven't been much of a poll watcher until recently.  Is that why you said 'but it's Rasmussen'?  Or do they have a rep for being wrong?

    Btw, slight correction -- RCP has them at 3.8 with today's Ras and Gallup polls.  Looking at just the avg of July polls on RCP (there are only 3 of them), Obama's up by just 2.

    [ Parent ]

    Yes, the Rasmussen bias to Obama (5.00 / 0) (#72)
    by Cream City on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:58:41 PM EST
    was one factor, but it also was off in a lot of races.  As for the numbers, note that I said (in my verb tenses) that I was posting when the site still said a 4.0 average, without the Gallup update today, which I already had checked on the Gallup site.  Also note discussion in other comments and other threads about the averaging, as I also have had to make my own adjustments to that site to remain reality-based in my own worldview . . . as the media and certainly bloggers overly rely on the site, say I.

    [ Parent ]
    Yes, sorry, caught it now (none / 0) (#132)
    by Valhalla on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 05:18:47 PM EST
    and realized my paragraph was misleading -- the point about the polls just in July only wasn't meant as part of the correction.

    [ Parent ]
    Didn't Kevin Drum say that Obama would (none / 0) (#8)
    by MarkL on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:30:35 PM EST
    never be less than 5 points ahead of McCain until November?

    [ Parent ]
    Oh, he can find a poll that says so (5.00 / 2) (#12)
    by Cream City on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:35:33 PM EST
    whenever he wants, I'm sure.

    [ Parent ]
    Heh (5.00 / 2) (#14)
    by andgarden on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:36:51 PM EST
    He lost that bet as soon as he made it.

    [ Parent ]
    I think it will be Obama by a little or (5.00 / 3) (#16)
    by MarkL on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:40:04 PM EST
    McCain by a landslide in Nov.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm curious (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by Dr Molly on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:06:42 PM EST
    why McCain hasn't yet really gone after Obama? I expected the McCain campaign to be going all out but they have been quite tepid.

    [ Parent ]
    After The Conventions (5.00 / 3) (#44)
    by JimWash08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:10:16 PM EST
    I'm pretty sure neither campaign wants to reveal all their cards until they're sure who they're playing against.

    And considering how the DNC and Obama are so reluctant to put Hillary Clinton on the ballots -- even though she totally deserves to be -- must be a reason why the GOP Attack Machine has been cranking ever so slowly.

    [ Parent ]

    Agreed (5.00 / 0) (#49)
    by JimWash08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:13:39 PM EST
    Anything else, and I could bet someone manipulated the vote numbers at the last minute. Or, it could be 2000 Redux.

    [ Parent ]
    Actually given Obama's track-record of.... (5.00 / 1) (#128)
    by ineedalife on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 05:10:47 PM EST
    back room manipulations of elections, here is my Doomsday Scenario. Obama, and the Dems this year have the ultimate ace-in-the-hole, control of the House. Remember how in Bush v. Gore the Reps were so smug because they had the Supreme Court and, if things went really bad, they could get the Fl legislature to invalidate their slate of electors and throw the election to the house. This year, keep an eye on any state with a Dem-controlled Legislature and a Dem Governor that votes Red for President. That is where a theft can occur and, if Obama's track record is any indication, I bet they are laying the groundwork as we speak. A voting rights suit involving discrimination against AA's would fit the bill.

    [ Parent ]
    Can't even begin to guess how it will (none / 0) (#117)
    by PssttCmere08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 04:22:24 PM EST
    play out....there is a dance called stepping...obama's version, misstepping...

    link

    [ Parent ]

    Looking at the two trackers (none / 0) (#13)
    by andgarden on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:36:35 PM EST
    it is pretty clear that there's been some tightening. I am pretty sure that McCain isn't ahead right now, so it's either tied or slight advantage Obama. Not where we really want to be, though.

    [ Parent ]
    Glad to know that andgarden (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by Cream City on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:48:09 PM EST
    the pollreader sees it as I do.  Including your interpretation in terms of what it does mean today, with little more than three months to go.

    [ Parent ]
    RCP average is WRONG! (none / 0) (#39)
    by ghost2 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:04:38 PM EST
    Today is July 13th and they are still counting polls conducted from June 26-29 in their average.  Take those two polls out, put today's Gallup in, and the average is:

    Obama +2.0

    [ Parent ]

    Yes, we had an exchange on that (none / 0) (#54)
    by Cream City on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:17:55 PM EST
    among some of us the other day here.  I also always adjust for their odd averaging and a bit of bias I have detected over time in how long they hang onto some polls, how long a list they keep, which has seemed to favor one candidate over another in the primary as well as since.  So I also adjust to toss out the dated polls, those commissioned by parties, etc.

    So I agree with you that Obama's lead has been overstated in the average for some time.  But I opted this time to just tell it like it is there.  I'm glad others here, unlike too many media, are on to rcp.com not being the bible and gospel truth.

    I do much prefer its electoral maps, though, to the popular electoral-vote.com.  The latter also has a bit of bias, and it claims red-blue totals without as clearly distinguishing how much is still based on leaning states, not solid states.

    [ Parent ]

    It's sad the NYer (5.00 / 3) (#27)
    by Edgar08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:52:32 PM EST
    Torched itself on the altar of Barack Obama.

    I throw my issues away now and I won't be ru-upping.


    i really hope (none / 0) (#104)
    by boredmpa on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 03:22:01 PM EST
    they see a massive decline in ad revenue online

    [ Parent ]
    DA...I hope there is protesting galore (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by PssttCmere08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:01:00 PM EST
    in Denver, especially if they think they are going to get shady and not put HIllary on the ballot.

    yes please drop it (none / 0) (#140)
    by Jeralyn on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 06:17:28 PM EST
    references to speculations of rioting are not welcome here.

    [ Parent ]
    Anyone watch Fareed Zakaria (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by magisterludi on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:01:23 PM EST
    and the Obama interview? I didn't get p*ssed off once.

    But Sachs, Summers and Krugman on the economy were depressing, of course. Sachs was a real downer, while Krugman offered hope in the way of FDR and real reform. I hope O was listening.

    I Didn't Watch the Interview (5.00 / 1) (#108)
    by Jane in CA on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 03:33:30 PM EST
    But I have found Fareed Zakaria's analyses to be very informative over the years.  He and Krugman are two pundits that always make me think through - and sometimes rethink -- my positions on foreign policy and economic issues.

    [ Parent ]
    Lizza Article Great Quote (5.00 / 1) (#47)
    by daring grace on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:11:37 PM EST
    Right out of a less romantic version of The Last Hurrah (still one of my favorite films).

    "The ward boss came in and pulled the cigar out of his mouth and said, `Who sent you?' And I said, `Nobody sent me.' He put the cigar back in his mouth and said, `We don't want nobody nobody sent.' "

    It's quite a read. Not a lot of revelations (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by Cream City on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:44:46 PM EST
    for those of us who have been reading a lot of bios of Obama, but some new voices being heard.  I look forward to Jeralyn's read on it, too.

    It may mean something that the New Yorker finally is turning toward redeeming itself, though, and returning to some semblance of balance.  It has been nice for a few weeks now to not have to see Hertzberg's attack-poodle pieces and nothing else.

    But because of those, as with much else, the New Yorker never will be the same for me.  And I've been a faithful reader for far longer than I've been a voter.  The subscription renewal is still on my stack, awaiting a decision.

    [ Parent ]

    New Yorker (5.00 / 1) (#71)
    by daring grace on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:55:40 PM EST
    Regrettably, for economic reasons I didn't renew my subscription a few years ago so I appreciate being able to see it online, but I still prefer the paper version of periodicals.

    [ Parent ]
    Double standard (5.00 / 3) (#52)
    by cmugirl on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:16:02 PM EST
    Why was it ok for Bernie Mac to use the term "hos" at an Obama fundraiser, where Obama appeared to admonish him but then said "I'm just messing with you,"

    LINK

    but when Don Imus said the same thing about the Rutgers women's basketball team, Obama was calling for his firing.  

    LINK

    So, if you make a tacky remark when you are raising money for him, it's ok, and you get a slap on the wrist, but if you say something equally as tacky on TV, you should be fired?

    W

    Because it wasn't "hos" (5.00 / 3) (#55)
    by Edgar08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:24:57 PM EST
    That got Imus fired.  It was "nappy-headed."

    He coulda called a bunch of white women softball players "hos" and been rewarded.

    Some might think that's not a nice way to talk about the issue.

    All I know is I am speaking the truth.

    [ Parent ]

    You're probably right (5.00 / 2) (#58)
    by cmugirl on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:32:40 PM EST
    Racism seems to once again trump sexism, instead of them both being unacceptable.  

    But I still say tacky is tacky.

    [ Parent ]

    Absolutely correct -- it angered me (5.00 / 2) (#60)
    by Cream City on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:40:42 PM EST
    at the time, as it did the women themselves.  I watched their press conference and interviews with them and their coach and parents, and all -- especially the coach, who was eloquent on this -- kept saying that the far greater offense that really hurt them all was that Imus called them whores.

    But as usual, the media didn't listen and called up the usual suspects in the "race race" to coverage -- and so they were the usual guys of color who talked about the adjective and not about the noun at all.

    It turns out to have been quite the harbinger of campaign coverage to come in more than MSNBC calling the Clintons pimps and thus calling Chelsea a whore, which merited all of a two-week suspension with pay for all of one person.  It also presaged all the outcry about racism -- but  the refusal to hear or even the mocking of those attempting to get attention to the sexism and misogyny.

    I do not think that I will live to see the day when white liberal guilt will be matched by guys' (and some co-opted women's) liberal guilt.

    [ Parent ]

    Agreed. (5.00 / 3) (#81)
    by Valhalla on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 02:10:18 PM EST
    It was always the racist part of that statement that got him in hot water, not the sexist part.  Big surprise there.  Who knew Imus of all people would foreshadow the 'winning' vein of political correctness in the primaries?

    [ Parent ]
    Maybe (5.00 / 1) (#163)
    by daring grace on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 08:07:03 PM EST
    But I wonder if some insidious sexist subtext was at work too.

    If he'd made a similar comment about a men's team, would it have landed him in so much hot water?

    In the endless commentary afterwards, I thought I picked up on the theme that what made this particularly egregious was he, the big pulpit media man was picking on those "girls".

    I thought they and their coach countered it very well with their mature response that made him look even more childish.

    [ Parent ]

    Also, Imus was referring... (5.00 / 4) (#61)
    by EL seattle on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:40:54 PM EST
    ... to real-life people who hadn't willingly entered a media circus sideshow.  These young women were just college athletes, playing their sport.  They weren't well-paid media celebrity targets or similar "fair game" for the sort of public ridicule that Imus dished out.

    [ Parent ]
    Limbaugh (none / 0) (#70)
    by jondee on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:54:08 PM EST
    protected from on high apparently, speculated on how many women at the Coretta Scott King funeral "would get picked up and how many would give birth nine months from now?" and we barely heard another word about it. So, there seems to be an ongoing tradition of acceptable racism/sexism not limited to the words of those who, (in the best of all worlds), would reflect poorly solely on that beast Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    Got a link (none / 0) (#77)
    by Wile ECoyote on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 02:02:33 PM EST
    a good link, audio?

    [ Parent ]
    Because Imus.... (none / 0) (#171)
    by kdog on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 09:27:18 PM EST
    called a sucessful team of student athletes "hos" when they are nothing of the sort, and rightfully faced the backlash.

    Bernie Mac told a joke.

    Big difference.

    [ Parent ]

    Behind the curve...but LOUD! (5.00 / 6) (#53)
    by Fabian on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:17:01 PM EST
    I was discussing the benefits and drawbacks of the internet with someone.  I mentioned that there are some very knowledgeable people who post on the internet who could see the $100/barrel oil coming and that the housing market collapse was inevitable.  (referring to two different bloggers there)  And if there were two such people who could put the facts and data together and come up with well supported conclusions, then there certainly must be more such.

    So those of us who read and knew were hardly surprised when the housing market crunch caused a global credit crunch and the now well over $100/barrel oil caused fuel prices to skyrocket.  And these predicted/predictable phenomena will have predictable consequences as well.

    So why do people scream and yell in outrage when something completely foreseeable happens?  Like, heck, people and government policy makers.  You were told.  You were warned.  You had every opportunity to try to minimize the effects on you and your city/state/country.  Why all the yelling now?  What good will it do?

    He said:  "There are those of us ahead of the curve.  Then there are those who are behind the curve - but they are louder.".

    I think he is right.  We need to figure out how to get microphones to those who are ahead of the curve.  Being behind the curve is a disadvantage that we can ill afford.  

    Great Analysis (5.00 / 2) (#57)
    by JimWash08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:31:15 PM EST
    Unfortunately in this election cycle, and all election cycles to come, the media (blogs included) and growing forms of new technology -- YouTube, message boards, Blackberries and Twitter -- make/made it very difficult to control the message.

    Some would say those mediums actually helped control the message, but I tend to disagree.

    No candidate, surrogate or casual supporter is safe anymore because every word is disseminated and parsed before they have the chance to clarify or react to reaction.

    And there are the rabid supporters who'll go to great lengths to manipulate the image and message of candidates (IMO, in Hillary's case, the ball of hate began rolling with that ridiculous Apple/1984 ad that an early Obama campaign worker put on YouTube)

    So my point is that it's every man and woman for themselves. If one is "ahead of the curve," he/she's going to have to find that microphone him/herself. Admittedly, on the Democratic side, the Obamans grasped the microphone first for more nefarious reasons. JMHO.

    [ Parent ]

    If I had my druthers (5.00 / 5) (#94)
    by Fabian on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 02:44:32 PM EST
    I'd toss the microphones to Gore for Enviro/Energy policy and Hillary for Economic policy and Political wonkery.

    I'd strongly suggest that any political campaign strategist read Glenn Greenwald because I can't stand that Democrats keep walking right into the negative frames that the Right has for them.  It's painful to watch.  Hillary has my support because she knows the issues, but she also has my respect because she's done a da**ed fine job of navigating around the political & media minefields.  (And Obama just doesn't seem to realize how dangerous those are.)

    It's incredibly aggravating to hear someone on a widely read forum making perfect sense and then seeing people and public officials ignore it.  These aren't state secrets locked up in vaults somewhere.  You can even use the intertubes to look back to see if any individual is spouting random bs or has a consistent track record.

    [ Parent ]

    I Hear Ya! (5.00 / 3) (#139)
    by JimWash08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 06:11:58 PM EST
    Hillary has my support because she knows the issues, but she also has my respect because she's done a da**ed fine job of navigating around the political & media minefields. (And Obama just doesn't seem to realize how dangerous those are.)

    Amen.

    [ Parent ]
    Unlike Arianna, I've known (5.00 / 4) (#75)
    by Montague on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 02:01:34 PM EST
    all my life that right is wrong.  I'm not taking my marching orders from the likes of her.  Or Markos.  

    Well..... (5.00 / 3) (#91)
    by Fabian on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 02:33:35 PM EST
    It's certainly a change of pace from the "Why don't you love Obama?" !

    :P

    GOP troll... (none / 0) (#93)
    by CaptainAmerica08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 02:40:31 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    So... (5.00 / 1) (#95)
    by Fabian on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 02:48:46 PM EST
    "Why you should love McCain!" ?

    I've never liked presidential campaign season.  It brings out the best and the worst of the media and of people as well.  Since I avoid commercial media, I'm blessedly ignorant of the latest attempts to get my attention and vote.  But I can't escape it totally!

    [ Parent ]

    Oh man (5.00 / 6) (#96)
    by Steve M on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 02:52:06 PM EST
    The stuff you can learn on the Internet...

    For comparison purposes (5.00 / 5) (#102)
    by waldenpond on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 03:19:49 PM EST
    I am not deleting this one.  :)

    [ Parent ]
    Out of curiousity, (5.00 / 1) (#106)
    by oculus on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 03:23:53 PM EST
    are there others who are community moderators here in additional to you?

    [ Parent ]
    No. Would you like (none / 0) (#142)
    by Jeralyn on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 06:25:04 PM EST
    to help out? It's not a fun task and it doesn't pay. I'm very grateful to WaldenPond.

    [ Parent ]
    Kudos to WaldenPond, too (5.00 / 1) (#166)
    by Cream City on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 08:36:28 PM EST
    as it's not easy with some posters who just won't abide by the warnings.  Ya gotta love the ones who veer from "I'm gonna go tell Jeralyn on you" to "oh yeh, well, Jeralyn wouldn't delete me, #$@! you."

    [ Parent ]
    Probably not. I'm too permissive! (none / 0) (#154)
    by oculus on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 07:50:21 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    heh (none / 0) (#121)
    by kempis on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 04:49:06 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Alien Nation. (5.00 / 4) (#100)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 03:17:09 PM EST
    Jeralyn: "SusanG at Daily Kos has a review ..."

    Well, I'm sure that back in the Cold War, Moscow's Pravda also had some decent writers who tried to get the word out.

    All the same, Jeralyn, what Markos Moulitas and Daily Kos did collectively to smear Hillary Clinton -- often using the sort of terminology and language you would want your own mother or grandmother to overhear -- was ay once vile, timid and shabby.

    So quite frankly, I don't care if the Kossacks are sharing with you their secret discovery of the long-lost site of the Holy Grail.  They've long since convinced me that for all their prattle and preening, Kos & Co, Ltd. is nothing but a pile of self-important, Beltway-centric political pigeon droppings, and I just can't and won't go there anymore.

    I'll put in a good word for mcjoan (5.00 / 2) (#107)
    by oculus on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 03:29:11 PM EST
    who remains faithful to her convictions.

    [ Parent ]
    It's just a good thing Dailykos is so (none / 0) (#109)
    by Edgar08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 03:43:18 PM EST
    wrongheaded and an embarrassment unto its ownself.

    Cause if they were right about Clinton working for Walmart, then what must you conclude about mcjoan working for Markos?


    [ Parent ]

    Is that a syllogism (sp)? (none / 0) (#156)
    by oculus on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 07:51:09 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I don't know (5.00 / 2) (#159)
    by Edgar08 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 07:56:14 PM EST
    All I know is that if they're right about Clinton being on the board of wal mart, then I get to be right about mcjoan and her working for markos.

    So, if I had my choice.  I'd say they were WRONG about Clinton being on the board of wal mart.  And then I don't have to conclude that mcjoan agrees with everything markos says or does.

    Cause if she does, in my view, speaking for me only, that obliterates anything else she hopes to achieve with her writing and activism..


    [ Parent ]

    That bad, huh? (5.00 / 3) (#103)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 03:20:24 PM EST
    I've got a big rock in my back yard, under which you can crawl and hide.

    You have to wonder (5.00 / 1) (#115)
    by Fabian on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 04:07:44 PM EST
    if some posters live in underground bomb shelters and wear bullet proof vests when they get groceries.

    [ Parent ]
    Groceries? (none / 0) (#161)
    by Nadai on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 08:00:18 PM EST
    I suspect this one grows all his own food in hydroponic vats.

    [ Parent ]
    Colorado's Human Life Amendment (5.00 / 1) (#111)
    by Anne on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 03:52:39 PM EST
    on the ballot in November is what I would love to see some discussion of.

    Here's a snip from the WaPo today:

    The Human Life Amendment, also known as the personhood amendment, says the words "person" or "persons" in the state constitution should "include any human being from the moment of fertilization." If voters agreed, legal experts say, it would give fertilized eggs the same legal rights and protections to which people are entitled.

    The ballot initiative is funded by Colorado for Equal Rights, a grass-roots antiabortion organization. Its purpose, initiative sponsor Kristi Burton said, is to lay a legal and legislative basis for protecting the unborn. Its passage would also open the door to modifying other laws for the same purpose, she said.

    As to what laws could then be modified, Burton would not elaborate. "We try not to focus on some of the issues that will be taken care of later on," she said, repeatedly saying that the amendment is not aimed at outlawing abortion.

    But that is the objective, according to one of the measure's biggest supporters, Colorado Right to Life. "The goal is to restore legal protection to preborn babies from the moment they are conceived, which is the only way we're going to stop abortion," said Leslie Hanks, vice president of the group.

    Read the whole article - it might make your hair stand on end.  


    Ok, reading the New Yorker article (5.00 / 1) (#113)
    by andgarden on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 03:56:59 PM EST
    my favorite quote so far:

    Obama's relations with some of his black colleagues from Chicago were dreadful from the beginning. On March 13, 1997, Obama introduced one of his first pieces of legislation, a modest bill to make a directory of community-college graduates available to local employers. There was a response from Rickey Hendon, a state senator from the West Side of Chicago who had been close to Alice Palmer. After Obama explained his bill, Hendon, who has dabbled in film and television work, earning him the nickname Hollywood, rose to ask a question, and the following exchange occurred:

    HENDON: Senator, could you correctly pronounce your name for me? I'm having a little trouble with it.
    OBAMA: Obama.
    HENDON: Is that Irish?
    OBAMA: It will be when I run countywide.
    HENDON: That was a good joke, but this bill's still going to die. This directory, would that have those 1-800 sex line numbers in this directory?
    OBAMA: I apologize. I wasn't paying Senator Hendon any attention.
    HENDON: Well, clearly, as poorly