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Montana Primary Preview

Update: Turnout is expected to be high.

We took a look at South Dakota here. Now it's time for Montana. From a briefing book:

Montana has 16 pledged delegates an 9 superdelegates. It has long been assumed to be in Barack Obama's corner.

Total population: 958,000. The African American population is 0.4%. Latino is 2.5% and Native American is anywhere between 6.3%.

There are 628,429 Registered Voters, not compiled by party.

Because its polls close an hour later than South Dakota's, it will get bragging rights as being the state to push a candidate over the top or at least close out this primary season.

The last Democrat to win in the presidential general election in Montana was Bill Clinton in 1992, perhaps because Ross Perot took votes from the Republican candidate. Bush won big in both 2000 and 2004.

[More...]

Since it is the last primary, it doesn't get much attention. In the 2004 primary, Dennis Kucinich came in second, with 10% of the vote.

It's an open primary, you don't have to be a Democrat to vote. You just pick the party ballot you want when you get to the polling place. Cross-over Republicans and Independents will play a large role.

Republicans held caucuses in MT in February, at which they chose Mitt Romney, so the primary holds no real meaning for them.

Obama held a 17 point lead in April. He campaigned in the college towns of Bozeman and Missoula. He's aired ads for the past month. Hillary didn't place ads until this week.

Bill Clinton has made several appearances there, concentrating on rural areas. Butte, which has a union history, may tend towards Hillary.

Montana is 90% white with a 6% Native American population. Labor unions were strong in the western part of the state while Republicans distrustful of government interference dominated the Eastern plains.

Montana has a high population of gun owners.

Both candidates have made overtures to the Native American residents:

Obama was adopted by the Montana Crow and given the name Awe Kooda Bilaxpak Kuuxshish which translates to "One Who Helps People Throughout the Land."

Obama said that growing up as the biracial child of a single mother, "I know what it's like to be on the outside…I know what it's like to struggle." He promised to "never forget" his new Indian "family"

"You will be on my mind every day when I'm in the White House," he said.

Hillary has Montana supporters too:

In a speech last week on South Dakota's Pine Ridge Reservation, Mrs Clinton touted jobs for those out of work and better healthcare. She has also pledged to increase money for employment and to fight diabetes among Indian youths. She has also benefited from her husband's record.

Thomas Shortbull, the president of South Dakota's Oglala Lakota College, supports her because Bill Clinton, as president, worked to get more education and housing money to reservations in the 1990s.

"We know what we'll get with a Clinton administration and we don't know what we'll get with an Obama presidency," he said.

Geri Small, the Northern Cheyenne president in Lame Deer, Montana, has also endorsed the New York senator.

As for the picture, it's of the Outlaw Inn in Kalispell, MT. In the 80's I had a case there that required many overnight stays. There was something very fun about going to a strange town to defend a man charged with a crime and have your hotel be named "The Outlaw Inn." Getting there was a pain, even from Denver. Everything was puddlejumpers in those days, where you got on the plane but it was more like a bus that made multiple stops. Sometimes we'd go to Missoula or Bozeman before landing at Kalispell.

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    And how sweet and fitting that Hillary should (5.00 / 3) (#1)
    by PssttCmere08 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 05:27:49 AM EST
    win Montana today!  Once again she has made herself a contender in a state pundits said she wouldn't win.  She is the fighter, she is the game changer, she is THE BEST CANDIDATE to win this nomination...wake up SD's, DNC/RBC, party (supposed leaders)...

    Hail to Hillary....GO GIRL!!!

    Other than the ARG poll, which by (none / 0) (#3)
    by zfran on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at