Preview of South Dakota Primary

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 07:58:00 AM EST
Tags: South Dakota '08 (all tags)

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At an appearance in Sioux Falls Monday night, Hillary Clinton said she is getting ready to begin the next phase of her campaign -- convincing superdelegates that she is more electable in November and better able to lead the country as President. This was her 5th visit to the state.

Clinton hinted that she isn’t ready to abandon her campaign, even though Sen. Barack Obama leads her in delegates. Clinton has no chance of making up her deficit in the remaining contests.

But Clinton and her supporters will make the case to superdelegates that her lead in the popular vote, and her wins in several key states, make her the strongest candidate. “We have a very strong case to make that I am in the best position to take back the White House,” she said.

From a briefing book (pdf) prepared for the primary on South Dakota: [More...]

The primary is closed. There are 195,063 registered Democrats among the states 796,000 residents. There are 15 pledged delegates and 8 superdelegates.

Both candidates have campaigned there, with Bill, Hillary or Chelsea making 30 appearances. At least one of them was in the state every day in the past week.

South Dakota is a decidedly Republican state. it has voted for a Democratic President only four times -- in 1896, 1932, 1936 and 1964.

Obama has the support of Tom Daschle, who was defeated in his re-election bid in 2004; Former Sen. George McGovern, who failed to carry South Dakota when he ran for President; and Reps. Stephanie Herzeth-Sandlin and Tim Johnson.

South Dakota's largest paper, the Argus Leader, endorsed Hillary. [More...]

It's largely rural. Think corn, soybeans and cattle.

Farming and ranching are big, but the state has no state or coporate income tax so banking has been growing. (If you have a Citbank credit card, that's why your payment gets mailed to South Dakota.)

Population has been declining in rural counties, but growing in suburban Lincoln County. The state's population is 796,000.

The state is 88% white and 1% African American. The Native American population is 8.8%. Both candidates have been campaigning for the Native American vote, promising health care and other financial solutions.

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Preview of South Dakota Primary | 46 comments (46 topical)

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That is what I like to hear....don't give up (5.00 / 2) (#1)
by PssttCmere08 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:09:04 AM EST

Hillary...she is the best person for the job of leading America back to the once proud nation it was!!!

GO HILLARY!!!

: She just continues (5.00 / 3) (#3)
by felizarte on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:15:48 AM EST

to strengthen my faith in her courage, strength and dignity in the face of such a struggle. ALL THE WAY WITH HILLARY!

Obama and his campaign staff (5.00 / 2) (#2)
by miriam on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:15:03 AM EST

and his supporters seem to have forgotten the famous saying: Never count a Clinton out.

It's strange (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by Steve M on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:16:18 AM EST

how states like this have been Republican for a century, considering how drastically the Republican Party has changed its direction over the last century. How strange to see the same state vote for both radical isolationism and war without end.

Media... (none / 0) (#24)
by Alec82 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:43:05 AM EST

...influence and a cultural gap, IMO. At least, more recently.

And to be fair, the Democratic Party has drastically changed its direction over the last century as well. There have been realignments.

Also, consider Hagel (not SD, but same region). He is socially conservative but openly mocked the Bush administration view of the war. Of course, only after it became clear to nearly everyone what was going on.

I live in South Dakota (none / 0) (#40)
by Dave B on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:25:41 AM EST

I have since the week before 9-11. The people here are Libertarian more so than Republican...


: Well (none / 0) (#41)
by Steve M on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:30:24 AM EST

That seems to describe in a nutshell why Obama does better in the West. Hillary Clinton's reputation for many years has been the Queen of Big Government.

As a point of reference (5.00 / 5) (#7)
by Steve M on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:20:03 AM EST

The infamous Obama spreadsheet predicted an 11-point win in Montana and a 15-point win in SD.

: Way off on Puerto Rico too (none / 0) (#11)
by andgarden on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:24:16 AM EST

Wasn't it Sioux Falls (5.00 / 1) (#8)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:20:25 AM EST

where the Argus/RFK flap originated? This may bring her voters out because of outrage. I don't think it will bring Obama voters out because anyone in their right mind knew it was crock.

: School is out (none / 0) (#31)
by phat on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:28:58 AM EST

and Obama has been begging people from Nebraska to go to SD.
Which is interesting.

Think will win also (5.00 / 1) (#9)
by formerhoosier on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:22:23 AM EST

Interesting since CW was this was a shoo-in for Senator Obama before. Hoping ARG is right again with 25 to 30 point win. (Clinton supporter can dream - right?)

I think she will win with a bigger margin (5.00 / 3) (#12)
by Grace on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:25:30 AM EST

than that. I've known some people from South Dakota and I think they are kind of similar to folks in Arkansas, Tennessee, Pennsylvania. Rural, independent, they like government to be there for them when they need it and gone when they don't need it. They are also kind of old-fashioned and probably won't fall into the "Hope, Change, I want a Unity Pony" group.

I can see her doing pretty well in South Dakota, particularly if she has a beer with them. ;)

This helps me deal with (5.00 / 7) (#15)
by ap in avl on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:31:01 AM EST

the end of the primary season. I have to admit that I have looked forward to hearing her speak on a daily basis. She is brilliant, witty, and truly inspiring. She is a wonderful and tireless servant of the people.

The highlight of this season for me was waiting 6 hours to hear her speak and shake her hand. I have listened to and met many politicians over the past 25 years and none of them compared to Hillary.

So hearing that she plans on fighting excites me. Our country needs her voice, her vision on a regular basis. It will be good for her to get some rest after the brutal campaign schedule ends. But when she catches up on a little sleep and soothes her throat I'm sure she'll be out there making the case on a regular basis for why she IS the best candidate for POTUS 08.

And I'll work as hard as I can to get that message spread far and wide.

Go Hill!

Tim Johnson (5.00 / 6) (#16)
by hlr on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:38:56 AM EST

is an Obama endorser but said he would vote for the winner of the SD primary. Here's hoping!

: too bad all supers don't follow his lead (5.00 / 1) (#21)
by ChuckieTomato on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:10:12 AM EST

She also had her Rural support campaigning (5.00 / 4) (#18)
by nycstray on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:54:01 AM EST

there. http://tinyurl.com/5v8nwl

I'm really hoping she pulls off SD and makes MT a fight. She's gotten a lot of 'grassroots' endorsements in SD (22 NA leaders and 17 County Commissioners)

one federal goodie that (5.00 / 0) (#19)
by cpinva on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:01:40 AM EST

a fair number of SD residents do rely on is agricultural subsidies, which both candidates have indicated should, at minimum, be drastically reduced.

this could well explain SD's consistent republican status, at least since the great depression; republicans, their protestations of fiscal responsibility notwithstanding, have happily treated their agricultural friends to the government's (your's and mine) largesse.

SD will go republican in nov. that aside, i'd love to see her trounce obama there by 40 points or more.

The Obama fans say he did poorly in the poll (5.00 / 1) (#20)
by masslib on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:06:20 AM EST

because so many were at his rally. That's possible. There are not a lot of Democrats in SD.

: That's rich. (5.00 / 2) (#22)
by oculus on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:26:57 AM EST

: People don't understand polls (5.00 / 4) (#29)
by Prabhata on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:07:18 AM EST

a rally will not change a poll. I volunteered to do a poll for a politician. Polls are clusters of people representative of an area. So e.g. there will be a cluster (one page) with about 40 names. Only one person has to respond from that cluster. If the person one calls does not respond for whatever reason (not home, don't want to participate, has a stomach ache) say thank you and call another, until one is willing and answer the questions. Once one person has answered all the questions, pick up another page and do it all over again. Imagine trying to figure out what's in 100 boxes. Picking up a few contents from each box will determine what's inside if you know that most items in each box are very similar.

The polls (5.00 / 3) (#25)
by not buying it on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:50:04 AM EST

I was encouraged by the earlier polls, but noticed in the last few hours that 538.com has new analysis showing Obama winning both states. I don't really think that could be right, but I guess we will know soon enough. It is interesting to me that Poblano's analysis keeps showing Hillary's win % going up, and her winning the electoral college even as he seems to poo poo the argument that Obama can't win the general election?!!!

Anyway, I loved the rural campaign article. That is so great to have men like this go out and speak for Hillary with the rural population in S. Dakota. I just wish things sounded more promising for Montana.

Someone earlier mentioned how much they would miss listening to Hillary's speeches once the official primary ends...I think we should all write to her campaign and try to persuade her to tape a message for us each day, so we don't go into a terrible withdrawal.

I just sent off my voter registration change to unaffiliated and a letter to Dr. Dean advising him of said fact and a bit of explanation. Just one less angry, older, "low information", "down scale", uneducated white woman for them to be rid of. LOL

Sweet dreams,

Carolyn

: Following suit (5.00 / 6) (#36)
by melro on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 06:12:57 AM EST

I'm an older, white, educated woman married to a union blue collar worker from Michigan and we're both following the same unaffiliated path after this. Not that I would ever, ever vot