O has a likable (enough) personality, not unlike Bill Clinton in 92, and so will be the beneficiary of a sympathy backlash among indies in the middle.  Kerry was, alas, not so likable.  Ditto for Dukakis.

We also, as you suggest, have an enthusiasm gap working for our side this election.  That translates into far more people for O showing up to vote, and it also means more people on the R side deciding to stay home -- shades of 1992 with the lukewarm R attitude towards Poppy.

McC, even if he runs a near perfect campaign, is unlikely to overcome the Bush/Repub taint on his campaign and the tanking economy. People are fed up and quite nervous about where things are going domestically.  They're also not thrilled about the unending and costly war in Iraq.  

Not much favors McC except on the narrow matter of being perceived as stronger on NS matters.  But that perception can change as TeamO, in ad after ad, works to remind voters of how unwise McC was to so enthusiastically embrace and enable Bush's War.  

I absolutely HATE pollsters and polls, and will do anything I can to skew them. I don't care for them, and they have never spoken for me or the general sentiments of the people around me.

Polling is a money-making business and you've got to believe the pollsters are dipping their grubby little fingers into the pie themselves.

So right now Obama has an edge, a cushion.  If he's smart and very lucky, he'll keep it.  But the GOP never seems to be happier than when they have a Dem candidate to drag through the mud and the media loves nothing more than controversy to suck the viewers in.

Per the Rocky Mountain News...

"Barack Obama leads John McCain by five percentage points in Colorado, according to a new poll that tracks the presidential contest in four key battleground states.
The poll by the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post and Quinnipiac University found that 49 percent of Colorado's likely voters would choose Obama, compared with 44 percent for McCain.

It also shows that independents in Colorado favor the Democrat 51 percent to 39 percent."

There's nothing I've heard from the Republicans that doesn't suggest that they aren't totally aware of how badly they are about to lose.  And what's really telling -- a good number of them think that's OK.  Even they know they need to regroup during a season out of power.

Though not all have the same specific grievances or agree on a course of protest, they are linked by their dissatisfaction with the primary process and its result, and are unpersuaded by the gestures of heroine Hillary.

Historically, party voters do fall in line, but this time is different IMO.  Voters are disgusted with govt as a whole (Dems too).  I saw the poll where Repubs are more satisfied with the Dem congress than Dems.